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Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) has become the sixth-largest grain-producing province of China, contributing 5.6% of the total national grain output in 2021. Grain production increased by around 821% from 1980 to 2019. The contributions of structure adjustment, sown area, and yield to the increase in grain production was analyzed for IMAR. For yield, the Cobb–Douglas production function was estimated, to analyze the contribution of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, irrigation, seed, pesticide, agriculture film, and machinery operation) and the impact of natural hazards on yield. Results from our study showed that the grain production and yield in IMAR increased by 81.40 × 104 t and 0.11 t·ha−1 annually from 1980 to 2019. The grain-crop sown area increased by 73.65 × 103 ha annually, and the sown area of maize constitutes 16.82% to 55.30% of the total sown area of the IMAR in 1980–2019. In IMAR, sown area, yield, and structure adjustment can explain 54.06%, 33.31%, and 12.63% of the increase in the total grain production, respectively, from 1980 to 2019. The input per unit area of fertilizer, irrigation, and other inputs (seed, pesticide, agricultural film, and mechanical operation inputs) increased by 362.16%, 259.66%, and 405.55%, respectively, from 1981 to 2019, which contributed 160.44%, 15.06%, and 53.13% for the main cereal grain (maize and wheat) yield, respectively, while the decrease in the comprehensive loss rate from agrometeorological hazards contributed 7.76% to the main cereal grain yield in IMAR. Technologies such as water-saving irrigation, high-efficiency fertilizer application, and agrometeorological-hazards mitigation measures should be adopted in the future to increase production, considering the stable sown area and environmental and resource constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop simulation models play an essential role in evaluating irrigation management strategies for improving agricultural water use in crop production. In this study, the AquaCrop model was used to calibrate and validate the grain yield and biomass of 11 cultivars (9 winter wheat and 2 summer maize) under full and water-saving irrigation practices. The model results were verified with the available data from the published literature. Under the full irrigation practice, widely used by farmers in the region for winter wheat, the Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) was found to be between 2.00–9.90% for grain yield, 2.40–10.85% for biomass, and 0.42–19.61% for water productivity. Under water-saving irrigation for winter wheat, the NRMSE range was found to be between 5.80–16.00% for grain yield, 3.70–17.30% for biomass, and 3.80–13.79% for water productivity. For summer maize, the NRMSE was 5.95%, 6.08%, and 16.41% under full irrigation, and 9.51%, 8.41%, and 3.60% under water-saving irrigation for grain yield, biomass, and water productivity, respectively. For winter wheat and summer maize, the simulation accuracy of grain yield was high under full irrigation, with percent deviations under ± 11.00%. In this study, the simulation accuracy for winter wheat was low under water-saving irrigation, while the model simulated the yield and biomass for summer maize to acceptable accuracy. The model can be reliably used as a tool to simulate grain yield and biomass across the NCP region for winter wheat and summer maize. However, the limitations of the model must be considered when simulating winter wheat under water-stressed conditions. • AquaCrop is a crop growth model to simulate yield response to water. • The model simulation accuracy was high under full irrigation for wheat and maize. • For water-saving irrigation, model accuracy was high for maize compared to wheat. • The model can be reliably used as a tool to simulate yield and biomass across NCP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]