Search

This paper focuses on two specific issues in the design of a domestic cap and trade program for GHGs--whether the cap should be located upstream or downstream, and whether trading alone will suffice to achieve the desired reduction in GHGs or will need to be supplemented with additional regulatory measures. The paper argues for a downstream cap accompanied by measures such as a renewable portfolio standard, efficiency standards for vehicles, appliances and buildings, and a low carbon fuel standard. For this argument, it is necessary to address both the theory and the empirical evidence of emission trading. After reviewing the theory, the paper examines the actual experience in the U.S. with emission trading for S[O.sub.2], to see whether the assumptions used in the theory actually applied in practice. What actually happened deviated in several important respects from what was supposed to happen according to the conventional theorizing. The design of a cap and trade program for GHG is then discussed, first considering the similarities between the past regulation of air pollutants and the challenge posed by GHGs, and then making the case for a downstream cap and complementary policies., 1. INTRODUCTION With the arrival of a new US administration, the debate on climate policy in Washington has moved into high gear. There is widespread agreement that we need to [...]

Byline: Guido Franco (1), Dan Cayan (2), Amy Luers (3), Michael Hanemann (4), Bart Croes (5) Abstract: Over the last few years, California has passed some of the strongest climate policies in the USA. These new policies have been motivated in part by increasing concerns over the risk of climate-related impacts and facilitated by the state's existing framework of energy and air quality policies. This paper presents an overview of the evolution of this increased awareness of climate change issues by policy makers brought about by the strong link between climate science and policy in the state. The State Legislature initiated this link in 1988 with the mandate to prepare an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change to California. Further interactions between science and policy has more recently resulted, in summer of 2006, in the passage of Assembly Bill 32, a law that limits future greenhouse gas emissions in California. This paper discusses the important role played by a series of state and regional climate assessments beginning in 1988 and, in particular, the lessons learned from a recently completed study known as the Scenarios Project. Author Affiliation: (1) Public Interest Energy Research Program, California Energy Commission, 1516 Ninth St., Sacramento, CA, 95814, USA (2) Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA (3) California Climate Program, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2397 Shattuck Ave., Ste. 203, Berkeley, CA, 94704, USA (4) Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, 207 Gianni Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA (5) Research Division, Air Resources Board, 1001 I Street, Sacramento, CA, 95812, USA Article History: Registration Date: 29/10/2007 Received Date: 05/12/2006 Accepted Date: 05/10/2007 Online Date: 22/12/2007

Byline: Daniel R. Cayan (1), Amy L. Luers (2), Guido Franco (3), Michael Hanemann (4), Bart Croes (5), Edward Vine (6) Abstract: In response to an Executive Order by California Governor Schwarzenegger, an evaluation of the implications to California of possible climate changes was undertaken using a scenario-based approach. The 'Scenarios Project' investigated projected impacts of climate change on six sectors in the California region. The investigation considered the early, middle and later portions of the twenty-first century, guided by a set of IPCC Fourth Assessment global climate model runs forced by higher and lower greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Each of these climate simulations produce substantial impacts in California that would require adaptations from present practices or status. The most severe impacts could be avoided, however, if emissions can be held near the lower end of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Author Affiliation: (1) Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, U.S. Geological Survey, 201 Nierenberg Hall, La Jolla, CA, 92093-0224, USA (2) Union of Concerned Scientists, Berkeley, CA, USA (3) California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA, USA (4) University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA (5) California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA, USA (6) California Institute for Energy and Environment, Sacramento, CA, USA Article History: Registration Date: 18/10/2007 Received Date: 06/08/2007 Accepted Date: 16/10/2007 Online Date: 26/01/2008

I. INTRODUCTION II. WESTERN WATER PROJECTS ARE HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO GLOBAL WARMING III. ADAPTATION WILL BE DIFFICULT, AT BEST A. Infrastructure constraints B. Institutional constraints IV. THE APPEAL OF STABILITY [...]