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Climate change may have diverse and complex impacts on species interactions, destabilizing food webs and ecosystem services. The effects of warming on the top‐down biological control of crop pests have been considerably less studied than bottom‐up effects through crop physiological changes.We studied the effect of a 2°C warming in the laboratory and in wheat fields on the predation and metabolism of Harmonia axyridis on wheat aphids using molecular gut content analysis. We also measured the effects of warming on the predation rate and functional response of H. axyridis on each aphid species in the laboratory, as well as on DNA degradation rate.Field densities of Sitobion avenae and Rhopalosiphum padi, the two most abundant wheat aphid species, were increased by 2 and 2.5 times, respectively, under experimental warming, but densities of H. axyridis were not. Field predation rate of H. axyridis on these two aphid was found to be about 25% lower under elevated temperature. This could have been due to faster prey digestion, since degradation of the preferred aphid species, Sitobion avenae, was 1.5 times faster under elevated temperature. However, the functional response of H. axyridis larvae on these two species was 1.5 times higher under warming over the range of prey densities tested (50–250 over 24 h). The total predation rate of H. axyridis larvae on a mixture of S. avenae, R. padi and Schizaphis graminum aphid prey was also increased by 1.4 times, but consumption of R. padi aphids was increased while that of S. graminum was decreased under warming.Overall, our results show that global warming could strongly increase pest outbreaks and destabilize biological pest control, which would likely result in accrued yield losses. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND Climate warming has considerable effects on crop development and pest population dynamics. Crucially, the tri‐trophic responses of plants, herbivores and their natural enemies to warming are poorly understood. To delineate these interactive properties, a three‐system approach and integrating life table methodology were used to examine the responses of wheat plants, English grain aphid and parasitoids under open‐field infrared heating to simulate warming. RESULTS: Warming significantly increased wheat biomass and grain weight, causing a phenological shift in plant growth. Importantly, warming significantly increased the number of aphids and the reproductive period, coupled with a higher net reproductive rate and intrinsic growth rate. Otherwise, duration of development, generation span, and population doubling time all decreased significantly. Warming had no effect on parasitoid abundance but resulted in a significant decrease in the rate of parasitism. CONCLUSION: Warming may strengthen bottom‐up effects on aphids by increasing wheat biomass, resulting in reduced regulation of aphid populations. Warming had a different effect on parasitoids between 2015 and 2016. These findings provide an important characterization of ecological mechanisms in plant–herbivore–parasitoid systems and give a theoretical foundation for improved forecasting of aphid population dynamics under climate change. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]