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The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state of the following year, in addition to the well-known preconditioning by equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume (WWV), as suggested by a study based on observations over the recent satellite era (1981-2009). The present paper explores the interdecadal robustness of this result over the 1872-2008 period. To this end, we develop a robust IOD index, which well exploits sparse historical observations in the tropical Indian Ocean, and an efficient proxy of WWV interannual variations based on the temporal integral of Pacific zonal wind stress (of a historical atmospheric reanalysis). A linear regression hindcast model based on these two indices in boreal fall explains 50 % of ENSO peak variance 14 months later, with significant contributions from both the IOD and WWV over most of the historical period and a similar skill for El Niño and La Niña events. Our results further reveal that, when combined with WWV, the IOD index provides a larger ENSO hindcast skill improvement than the Indian Ocean basin-wide mode, the Indian Monsoon or ENSO itself. Based on these results, we propose a revised scheme of Indo-Pacific interactions. In this scheme, the IOD-ENSO interactions favour a biennial timescale and interact with the slower recharge-discharge cycle intrinsic to the Pacific Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growth and decay mechanisms of subtropical dipole modes in the southern Indian and South Atlantic Oceans and their impacts on southern African rainfall are investigated using results from a coupled general circulation model originally developed for predicting tropical climate variations. The second (most) dominant mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the southern Indian (South Atlantic) Ocean represents a northeast-southwest oriented dipole, now called subtropical dipole mode. The positive (negative) SST interannual anomaly pole starts to grow in austral spring and reaches its peak in February. In austral late spring, the suppressed (enhanced) latent heat flux loss associated with the variations in the subtropical high causes a thinner (thicker) than normal mixed layer thickness that, in turn, enhances (reduces) the warming of the mixed layer by the climatological shortwave radiation. The positive (negative) pole gradually decays in austral fall because the mixed layer cooling by the entrainment is enhanced (reduced), mostly owing to the larger (smaller) temperature difference between the mixed layer and the entrained water. The increased (decreased) latent heat loss due to the warmer (colder) SST also contributes to the decay of the positive (negative) pole. Although further verification using longer observational data is required, the present coupled model suggests that the South Atlantic subtropical dipole may play a more important role in rainfall variations over the southern African region than the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific sector has undergone dramatic changes under global ocean warming. Extreme Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events occurred repeatedly in recent decades with an unprecedented series of three consecutive episodes during 2006–08, causing vast climate and socioeconomic effects worldwide and weakening the historic El Niño–Indian monsoon relationship. Major attention has been paid to the El Niño influence on the Indian Ocean, but how the IOD influences El Niño and its predictability remained an important issue to be understood. On the basis of various forecast experiments activating and suppressing air–sea coupling in the individual tropical ocean basins using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere model with demonstrated predictive capability, the present study shows that the extreme IOD plays a key role in driving the 1994 pseudo–El Niño, in contrast with traditional El Niño theory. The pseudo–El Niño is more frequently observed in recent decades, coincident with a weakened atmospheric Walker circulation in response to anthropogenic forcing. The study’s results suggest that extreme IOD may significantly enhance El Niño and its onset forecast, which has being a long-standing challenge, and El Niño in turn enhances IOD and its long-range predictability. The intrinsic El Niño–IOD interaction found here provides hope for enhanced prediction skill of both of these climate modes, and it sheds new light on the tropical climate variations and their changes under the influence of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]