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An accurate streamflow forecast is vital for flood prediction and early warning systems. Notwithstanding the rising frequency and intensity of floods during the summer monsoon season in India, efforts to examine the utility of data assimilation (DA) for streamflow prediction remain limited. We examine soil moisture and streamflow DA to improve streamflow simulations in the Narmada River basin, considered a testbed. Data assimilation was performed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at four gauge stations in the basin. First, we used the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to assimilate the satellite soil moisture from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) to the initial state of the VIC model. We examined the usefulness of observed streamflow from the India Water Resources Information System (India-WRIS) to improve the initial hydrological conditions of the VIC model in the streamflow DA during the summer monsoon (June–September) season from 1980 to 2018. The assimilation of ESA-CCI soil moisture showed less improvement in percent error reduction (PER) and efficiency index (EFF) (less than 2%) than the streamflow DA at all of the four gauge locations in the Narmada basin. On the other hand, the streamflow DA showed a significant improvement in PER and EFF (more than 10%) at all the gauge stations for both mean and high-flow conditions. Streamflow data assimilation improved errors in the magnitude and timing for the major floods in 1994 and 2013. Significance Statement: India is considerably affected by floods during the summer monsoon. Floods have increased and are projected to become more frequent under the warming climate. Flood prediction and early warning systems are essential in reducing their impacts and exposure. In the present study, we are interested in examining the role of soil moisture and streamflow data assimilation on flood prediction in the Narmada River basin. Our results show that streamflow data assimilation is more effective in reducing errors and bias in streamflow prediction than soil moisture data assimilation. The hydrologic framework used for the Narmada basin can be extended and evaluated to other flood-prone basins in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Standardized precipitation index (SPI) is one of the frequently used meteorological drought indices. However, the time-varying characteristics observed in the historical precipitation data questions the reliability of SPI and motivated the development of nonstationary SPI. To overcome some of the limitations in the existing nonstationary drought indices, a new framework for drought index is proposed, incorporating the temporal dynamics in the precipitation. The proposed drought index is developed by coupling the joint deficit index with the extended time sliding window–based nonstationary modeling (TSW-NSM). The proposed nonstationary joint deficit index (NJDI) detects the signature of nonstationarity in the distribution parameter and models both long-term (i.e., trend) and short-term (i.e., step-change) temporal dynamics of distribution parameters. The efficacy of NJDI is demonstrated by employing it to identify the meteorological drought-prone areas over India. The changes observed in the distribution parameter of rainfall series reveal an increasing number of dry days in recent decades all over India, except the northeast. Comparison of NJDI and stationary joint deficit index (JDI) reveals that JDI overestimates drought when frequent severe dry events are clustered and underestimates when these events are scattered, which indicates that the traditional index is biased toward the lowest magnitude of precipitation while classifying the drought. Moreover, NJDI could closely capture historical droughts and their spatial variations, thereby reflecting the temporal dynamics of rainfall series and the changes in the pattern of dry events over India. NJDI proves to be a potentially reliable index for drought monitoring in a nonstationary climate. Significance Statement: Drought is one of the most severe natural disasters and is expected to intensify under a warming climate. There has been progress on developing newer methodologies to characterize drought severity under the changing climate. However, some limitations remain in capturing the temporal changes of the precipitation, especially the nonstationarity in variance (rapid increases in extreme precipitation versus the average precipitation). We propose an extension to the time sliding window approach to capture the nonstationarity in variance and mean while incorporating short-term (step-change) and long-term (trend) temporal dynamics. We apply the methodology to a subcontinent-sized heterogeneous country of India with gridded rainfall dataset (0.25° × 0.25°, 1901–2013) from the India Meteorological Department. We find that the majority of grids exhibit negative and positive trends in shape and scale parameters, respectively, which ultimately leads to an increase in the number of drier events, whereas a contradictory pattern is exhibited in the northwest Indian region (decrease in the number of dry days). The proposed index gives a potential framework for drought monitoring under the changing climate and can be extended to develop a multivariate nonstationary joint deficit index by incorporating other hydrological variables (e.g., soil moisture, diurnal temperature range, streamflow). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture (SM) plays a crucial role in altering climate extremes through complex land-atmosphere feedback processes. In the present study, we investigated the impact of SM perturbations on temperature extremes (ExT) over India for the historical period (1951–2010) and future climate projection (2051–2100) under 4 K warming scenario. We note that more than 70% area of the Indian landmass has experienced significant changes in characteristics of ExT due to SM perturbations. In particular, we see larger impact of SM perturbations on ExT over the north-central India (NCI), which is a hotspot of strong SM-temperature coupling. Over NCI, a 20% departure in SM significantly revamps frequency, duration and intensity of ExT by 2–5 events/year, 1-2 days/event and 0.5–2.1 °C, respectively, through modulating surface energy partitioning, evapotranspiration and SM memory. Importantly, the impact of SM perturbations on frequency and duration of ExT events becomes less prominent with intensification of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]