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A rights-based approach to ‘adaptive social protection’ holds promise as a policy measure to address structural dimensions of vulnerability to climate change such as inequality and marginalisation, yet it has been failing to gain traction against production and growth-oriented interventions. Through the lens of Ethiopia's flagship Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP), we trace the role of climate discourses in impeding progress towards socially transformative outcomes, despite the importance of social protection for building resilience. We argue that intertwining narratives of moral leadership and green growth associated with Ethiopia's national climate strategy shape how the PSNP is rendered ‘climate-smart’. These narratives, however, are embedded within politics that have historically underpinned the country's drive for modernisation and growth-oriented policies, particularly in dealing with food insecurity. Like pre-existing narratives on development and the environment, they rationalise the presence of a strong central State and its control over natural resources and rural livelihoods. The PSNP is thus conditioned to favour technocratic, productivist approaches to adapting to climate change that may help reproduce, rather than challenge the entrenched politics at the root of vulnerability. Ultimately, this case study demonstrates how climate discourses risk diluting core rights-based dimensions of social protection, contradicting efforts to address the structural dimensions of vulnerability to climate change.

The ability of businesses to adapt effectively to climate change is highly influenced by the external business enabling environment. Constraints to adaptive capacity are experienced by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) across sub-Saharan Africa, regardless of the gender of the business owner. However, gender is a critical social cleavage through which differences in adaptive capacity manifest and in Africa most entrepreneurs are women. We conduct a systematic review to synthesize existing knowledge on differential vulnerability of female entrepreneurs in Africa to climate risk, in relation to their sensitivity to extreme climate events and their adaptive capacity. We synthesize this literature using a vulnerability analysis approach that situates vulnerability and adaptive capacity within the context of the wider climate risk framework denoted in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. In doing so, we identify gendered barriers and enablers to private sector adaptation and suggest women entrepreneurs face a “triple differential vulnerability” to climate change, wherein they: (1) are often more sensitive to climate risk, as a result of their concentration in certain sectors and types of enterprises (e.g., micro SMEs in the agricultural sector in remote regions); (2) face additional barriers to adaptation in the business environment, including access to finance, technologies, (climate and adaptation) information and supportive policies; and (3) are also often concurrently on the frontline of managing climate risk at household levels. Since various forms of inequality often create compounding experiences of discrimination and vulnerability, we pay particular attention to how factors of differential vulnerability intersect, amplify, and reproduce.

Water resource system planning is complicated by uncertainty on the magnitude and direction of climate change. Therefore, developments such as new infrastructure or changed management rules that would work acceptably well under a diverse set of future conditions (i.e., robust solutions) are preferred. Robust multi-objective optimisation can help identify advantageous system designs which include existing infrastructure plus a selected subset of new interventions. The method evaluates options using simulated water resource performance metrics statistically aggregated to summarise performance over the climate scenario ensemble. In most cases such ‘robustness metrics’ are sensitive to scenarios under which the system performs poorly and so results may be strongly influenced by a minority of unfavorable climate scenarios. Understanding the influence of specific climate scenarios on robust optimised decision alternatives can help better interpret their results. We propose an automated multi-criteria design-under-uncertainty sensitivity analysis formulation that uses multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to reveal robust and efficient designs under different samples of a climate scenario ensemble. The method is applied to a reservoir management problem in the Rufiji River basin, Tanzania, which involves the second largest dam in Africa. We find that solutions optimised for robustness under alternative groups of climate scenarios exhibit important differences. This becomes particularly decision-relevant if analysts and/or decision-makers have differing confidence levels in the relevance of certain climate scenarios. The proposed approach motivates continued research on how climate model credibility should inform climate scenario selection because it demonstrates the influence scenario selection has on recommendations arising from robust optimisation design processes.

Uncertainty in long-term projections of future climate can be substantial and presents a major challenge to climate change adaptation planning. This is especially so for projections of future precipitation in most tropical regions, at the spatial scale of many adaptation decisions in water-related sectors. Attempts have been made to constrain the uncertainty in climate projections, based on the recognised premise that not all of the climate models openly available perform equally well. However, there is no agreed ‘good practice’ on how to weight climate models. Nor is it clear to what extent model weighting can constrain uncertainty in decision-relevant climate quantities. We address this challenge, for climate projection information relevant to ‘high stakes’ investment decisions across the ‘water-energy-food’ sectors, using two case-study river basins in Tanzania and Malawi. We compare future climate risk profiles of simple decision-relevant indicators for water-related sectors, derived using hydrological and water resources models, which are driven by an ensemble of future climate model projections. In generating these ensembles, we implement a range of climate model weighting approaches, based on context-relevant climate model performance metrics and assessment. Our case-specific results show the various model weighting approaches have limited systematic effect on the spread of risk profiles. Sensitivity to climate model weighting is lower than overall uncertainty and is considerably less than the uncertainty resulting from bias correction methodologies. However, some of the more subtle effects on sectoral risk profiles from the more ‘aggressive’ model weighting approaches could be important to investment decisions depending on the decision context. For application, model weighting is justified in principle, but a credible approach should be very carefully designed and rooted in robust understanding of relevant physical processes to formulate appropriate metrics.

Amidst increasing interest in multi-stakeholder partnerships (MSPs) in climate discourse, this paper identifies four rationales for why MSPs may be particularly suited to supporting adaptation from existing literatures. With a focus on MSPs that seek to support adaptation among micro, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Kenya, we then investigate the extent to which this potential is being realised in practice, through interviews with partners engaged in the design and implementation of MSPs. This allows us to examine some of the opportunities, challenges and distributional risks that may result from employing MSPs to support adaptation. We find that through action and investment from donors and the public sector in areas such as research, data access, relationship building, training and capacity building, access to finance and business incubation, MSPs can enable a wide range of private sector actors to deliver adaptation resources to SMEs. Beneficiaries include small-scale SMEs in agricultural value chains in remote regions, that could otherwise fall outside of market inclusion. As such, respondents in this research typically considered MSPs to present an exciting opportunity to plug gaps in adaptation and development finance. Further analysis, however, suggests that dependence on market mechanisms for delivering adaptation resources means that MSPs risk excluding the poorest groups, exposing businesses to new risks and reproducing existing inequalities. Additionally, MSPs often remain heavily dependent on donor-led organisations for both resources and momentum. In Kenya, opportunities to develop more integrated responses to supporting the adaptive capacity of SMEs are being missed through a disconnect between the practice of MSPs and national public sector development frameworks and institutions.

In this paper, we use an inductive approach and longitudinal analysis to explore political influences on the emergence and evolution of climate change adaptation policy and planning at national level, as well as the institutions within which it is embedded, for three countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia). Data collection involved quantitative and qualitative methods applied over a 6-year period from 2012 to 2017. This included a survey of 103 government staff (20 in Malawi, 29 in Tanzania and 54 in Zambia) and 242 interviews (106 in Malawi, 86 in Tanzania and 50 in Zambia) with a wide range of stakeholders, many of whom were interviewed multiple times over the study period, together with content analysis of relevant policy and programme documents. Whilst the climate adaptation agenda emerged in all three countries around 2007–2009, associated with multilateral funding initiatives, the rate and nature of progress has varied—until roughly 2015 when, for different reasons, momentum slowed. We find differences between the countries in terms of specifics of how they operated, but roles of two factors in common emerge in the evolution of the climate change adaptation agendas: national leadership and allied political priorities, and the role of additional funding provided by donors. These influences lead to changes in the policy and institutional frameworks for addressing climate change, as well as in the emphasis placed on climate change adaptation. By examining the different ways through which ideas, power and resources converge and by learning from the specific configurations in the country examples, we identify opportunities to address existing barriers to action and thus present implications that enable more effective adaptation planning in other countries. We show that more socially just and inclusive national climate adaptation planning requires a critical approach to understanding these configurations of power and politics.

This perspective explores how climate services may potentially incorporate information emerging from the new science of interannual-to-decadal (I2D) climate prediction. The geographic focus is the Sahel region of West Africa, which has demonstrated prediction advances for rainfall on the I2D timescale, and vulnerability to climate hazards. The perspective draws on reviews of predictability and applications in the region and a national workshop in Sudan to explore applications. Decadal prediction is an emerging capability, to date being undertaken primarily as a learning process. However, for the multi-year forecast information, we identify a number of new dimensions that challenge product design and user uptake. Current experiments often present forecasts as the average conditions for a target first year, and then subsequent set of years raising a question of what a forecast of mean average conditions for years 2–5 represents in terms of climate to expect, and how annual updates to multi-year forecasts may be produced and communicated. Stakeholder consultations highlighted some of the concerns noted for existing seasonal forecasts, but now translated into terms for multi-year information, such as confidence in information, need for research on temporal downscaling (which may now include information on the risks of climate anomalies in the individual years that make up the forecast period), capacity development, and that communities would need to be convinced about effectiveness, alongside careful communication, especially in the context of multi-year planning. This perspective captures one of the first learning case studies on how I2D prediction may be explored in a given region, a first step towards climate services development that integrate I2D information.

Non-technical abstractGlobally, semi-arid lands (SALs) are home to approximately one billion people, including some of the poorest and least food secure. These regions will be among the hardest hit by the impacts of climate change. This article urges governments and their development partners to put SAL inhabitants and their activities at the heart of efforts to support adaptation and climate resilient development, identifying opportunities to capitalize on the knowledge, institutions, resources and practices of SAL populations in adaptation action.

Adaptation research has changed significantly in recent years as funders and researchers seek to encourage greater impact, ensure value for money and promote interdisciplinarity across the natural and social sciences. While these developments are inherently positive, they also bring fresh challenges. With this in mind, this paper presents an agenda for the next generation of climate adaptation research for development. The agenda is based on insights from a dialogue session held at the 2016 Adaptation Futures conference as well as drawing on the collective experience of the authors. We propose five key areas that need to be changed in order to meet the needs of future adaptation research, namely: increasing transparency and consultation in research design; encouraging innovation in the design and delivery of adaptation research programmes; demonstrating impact on the ground; addressing incentive structures; and promoting more effective brokering, knowledge management and learning. As new international funding initiatives start to take shape, we underscore the importance of learning from past experiences and scaling-up of successful innovations in research funding models.

In economically marginal rural areas, choice in livelihood strategy such as decisions to move location mediates levels of individual and household resilience under conditions of environmental change. It is widely recognised that endowments associated with mobility and the entitlement to mobility are unevenly distributed across populations. This paper integrates these insights and conceptualises location choice as a set of mobility endowments and mobility entitlements. Through focussing on endowments and entitlements, the paper explores how choice affects the ability to be mobile and its role in mediating levels of resilience to livelihood shocks associated with changing environmental conditions. The research design involves measuring the impact of different climatic perturbations in rural locations in Anhui Province, China. Mixed methods of rural appraisal, life history interviews, and a household survey generate objective and perceived elements of individual and household responses to risks. These data are augmented by biophysical observations on the nature of the climatic perturbations. The results show that mobility endowments and mobility entitlements are important in determining the impact of mobility on resilience. The life history interview data highlight significant individual agency within the structures that impact on individual choices. Further, individuals and households who possess the ability to decide and to subsequently enact decisions about mobility, are shown to be more resilient compared to other individuals and households that lack such ability. Moreover, households practicing short-term, circular mobility are more resilient than those households that practice long-term mobility. The study confirms that, in these instances, choice and the ability to enact those choices mediates resilience and highlights the implications of location decisions but also the conditions in which those decisions are made.

Climate change adaptation is unavoidable, particularly in developing countries where the adaptation deficit is often larger than in developed countries. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches are considered useful for supporting adaptation decision making, yet case study applications in developing countries are rare. This review paper examines the potential to expand the geographical and sectoral foci of RDM as part of the repertoire of approaches to support adaptation. We review adaptation decision problems hitherto relatively unexplored, for which RDM approaches may have value. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches, suggest potential sectors for application and comment on future directions. We identify that data requirements, lack of examples of RDM in actual decision-making, limited applicability for surprise events, and resource constraints are likely to constrain successful application of RDM approaches in developing countries. We discuss opportunities for RDM approaches to address decision problems associated with urban socio-environmental and water-energy-food nexus issues, forest resources management, disaster risk management and conservation management issues. We examine potential entry points for RDM approaches through Environmental Impact Assessments and Strategic Environmental Assessments, which are relatively well established in decision making processes in many developing countries. We conclude that despite some barriers, and with modification, RDM approaches show potential for wider application in developing country contexts.

The threat of climate change is emerging at a time of rapid growth for many economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Dominant narratives comprising ambitious development plans are common and often based around sectors with strong inter-dependencies that are highly exposed to climate variability. Using document analysis and key informant interviews, this article examines how climate change is addressed in policy, how it is being mainstreamed into water, energy and agriculture sector policies and the extent to which cross-sectoral linkages enable coordinated action. These questions are addressed through a case study of Tanzania, highlighting broader lessons for other developing countries, particularly those in SSA facing similar challenges. The article finds that, while the agriculture and water sectors are increasingly integrating climate change into policies and plans in Tanzania, practical coordination on adaptation remains relatively superficial. Publication of the Tanzania National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) in 2007 marked a step change in the integration of climate change in sectoral policies and plans; however, it may have reinforced a sectoral approach to climate change. Examining the policies for coherence highlights overlaps and complementarities which lend themselves to a coordinated approach. Institutional constraints (particularly structures and resources) restrict opportunities for inter-sectoral action and thus collaboration is confined to ad hoc projects with mixed success to date. The results highlight the need for institutional frameworks that recognize and address these constraints to enable development goals to be pursued in a more sustainable and climate-resilient manner. KEY POLICY INSIGHTS The NAPA has been successful at encouraging climate change mainstreaming into sectoral policies in Tanzania; however, the cross-sectoral collaboration crucial to implementing adaptation strategies remains limited due to institutional challenges such as power imbalances, budget constraints and an ingrained sectoral approach. Collaboration between nexus sectors in Tanzania is largely through ad hoc projects with limited progress on establishing deeper connections to enable collaboration as a process. Regular cross-sectoral planning meetings and consistent annual budgets could provide a platform to enhance cross-sectoral coordination. Plans to develop hydropower and agriculture are prevalent across sub-Saharan Africa. Insights from Tanzania highlight the importance of institutional and policy frameworks that enable cross-sectoral coordination.

Non-technical summary The El Nino event in 2015/2016 was one of the strongest since at least 1950. Through surveys and interviews with key informants, we find businesses in the capital cities of Zambia, Botswana and Kenya experienced major disruption to their activities from El Nino related hydroelectric load shedding, water supply disruption and flooding, respectively. Yet, during the 2015/2016 El Nino, fluctuations in precipitation were not extreme considering the strength of the El Nino event. Results therefore highlight that even fairly moderate precipitation anomalies can contribute to major disruption to economic activity. Addressing the risk of disruption – and supporting the private sector to adapt – is a development priority. Technical summary Drought during the 2015/2016 El Nino amplified disruption to public water supply in Botswana’s capital Gaborone and contributed to unprecedented hydroelectric load shedding across Zambia. In Kenya, moderate precipitation during the El Nino brought localized floods to Nairobi and other areas. Contributing to a sparse literature on firm-level adaptation among micro, small and medium enterprise (MSMEs) in sub-Saharan Africa, through a near-real time assessment we consider MSME experience of this disruption in sectors making substantial contributions to livelihoods and national GDP. Alongside complex and indirect impact pathways that influence total loss and damage, results show varying vulnerability to disruption. Nevertheless, directly after the El Nino event, MSMEs reported water supply disruption, power outages and flooding to be the leading challenge within the business environment in Botswana, Zambia and Kenya respectively. Deeper understanding of vulnerabilities in existing water, energy and urban infrastructure – in the context of increasing urbanisation and a potentially broader range of climate variability – is urgently needed across SSA. This needs to be coupled with public provision of wider enabling conditions – including access to finance – that support private sector adaptation to extreme climate events and associated resource disruption. This paper also identifies clear opportunities to improve climate information services for MSMEs. Social media summary Flooding and water and electricity supply disruption during the 2015/2016 El Nino disrupted business activity in sub-Saharan Africa.

Next year Global Environmental Change will have been in existence for 25 years. This year sees a major change in the journal's editors, as Neil Adger and Kate Brown depart after a decade of leadership. As of January, four individuals have joined Declan Conway (London School of Economics, UK) as the new editorial team: Jon Barnett (University of Melbourne, Australia), Michele Betsill (Colorado State University, US), Louis Lebel (Chiang Mai University, Thailand) and Karen Seto (Yale University, US). This change does not signal a major shift in the journal's directions and scope. It does, however, provide an opportunity to reflect on the past and identify emerging frontiers in research on global environmental change, at least as reflected in the pages of this journal. We will use Global Environmental Change's anniversary next year to lay out our vision and plans for the future of the journal; here we reflect on some of the key contributions to understanding processes of global environmental change.

Responses to climate change in transboundary river basins are believed to depend on national and sub-national capacities as well as the ability of co-riparian nations to communicate, coordinate, and cooperate across their international boundaries. We develop the first framework for assessing transboundary adaptive capacity. The framework considers six dimensions of transboundary river basins that influence planning and implementation of adaptation measures and represents those dimensions using twelve measurable indicators. These indicators are used to assess transboundary adaptive capacity of 42 basins in the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Sahel. We then conduct a cluster analysis of those basins to delineate a typology that includes six categories of basins: High Capacity, Mediated Cooperation, Good Neighbour, Dependent Instability, Self-Sufficient, and Low Capacity. We find large variation in adaptive capacity across the study area; basins in Western Europe generally have higher capacities to address the potential hazards of climate change. Our basin typology points to how climate change adaptation policy interventions would be best targeted across the different categories of basins.

This paper examines the challenges and opportunities for Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) to integrate climate change adaptation into development projects, focusing on the potential contribution of community-generated information. The research, undertaken with agricultural NGO FARM-Africa, centres upon subsistence farming communities in the Kenyan Districts of Mwingi and Kitui, where a succession of droughts has blighted agricultural production in recent years. Discussions with FARM-Africa staff highlight how recent climate variability and possibly climate change, is already affecting project-level operations. In particular, the interaction between the secondary impacts of climate hazards and livelihood responses presents a challenge to local staff as there is no obvious means of reflecting the complexity of local experiences and impacts within project planning processes. In response, drawing upon discussions with Farmer Groups, a matrix for each community was developed comprising environmental, soci...

This paper reviews research on African climate from the major Sahel droughts in the early 1970s to current interest in improving the use of climate science within societal decision-making processes. During the last decade, and particularly since the mid-2000s, the development community has begun to engage seriously with the issue of climate change and its implications for the world's poor. This has led to a growing interaction with the climate research community. Recent climate literature is used to explore four research themes and identify knowledge gaps and areas with potential to adapt climate research for development needs. The first theme considers the development and use of seasonal forecasts and their portrayal by some as a relative success story, but with important skill limitations and need for much greater interaction with users. Forecast use is set within a wider context of generally low scientific understanding of the drivers of Africa's high climate variability and low research capacity. The second theme addresses the main influences on African climate variability and their response to climate change; high levels of uncertainty for future rainfall in some regions where remote influences are poorly resolved in global climate models. The third theme summarizes key elements of climate impacts research and shows a situation of rather ad hoc case studies and little engagement with decision-makers. Recent studies reveal an important move to couple more effectively impacts research with adaptation by focusing on the near future and drawing on current climate–society relationships. The fourth theme looks at the emerging evidence of anthropogenic climate change and secondary effects on African environments and, apart from widespread warming, shows an equivocal situation with evidence for anthropogenic ocean warming affecting regional rainfall. Detection is hampered by data availability and high levels of background variability. Finally, three emergent issues are discussed: (1) reflection on African climate research capacity and international collaboration suggests it is timely to review experiences from recent climate programs in Africa; (2) attempts to untangle climate signals from within complex livelihood systems face significant methodological challenges. These include the need to reconcile scientific observations and local perceptions and to clarify views that may over-simplify climate–society interactions, to avoid construction of a crisis narrative on Africa and climate change; (3) the challenge of linking climate science with decision-making to inform adaptation. Demand for information and confidence often exceeds what climate science can realistically achieve in many parts of Africa. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 428–450 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.115 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

Africa is widely held to be highly vulnerable to future climate change and Ethiopia is often cited as one of the most extreme examples. With this in mind we seek to identify entry points to integrate short- to medium-term climate risk reduction within development activities in Africa, drawing from experiences in Ethiopia. To achieve this we employ a range of data and methods. We examine the changing nature of climate risks using analysis of recent climate variability, future climate scenarios and their secondary impacts. We assess the effects of climate variability on agricultural production and national GDP. Entry points and knowledge gaps in relation to mainstreaming climate risks in Ethiopia are identified using the Government's plan for poverty reduction. We end with a case study incorporating climate risks through drought insurance within the current social protection programme in Ethiopia, which provides support to 8.3 million people. Rainfall behaviour in Ethiopia shows no marked emergent changes and future climate projections show continued warming but very mixed patterns of rainfall change. Economic analysis highlights sensitivities within the economy to large-scale drought, however, while the effects are clear in major drought years in other years the relationship is weak. For social protection fairly small positive and negative effects on the number of recipients and frequency of cash payments during drought occur under the extreme range of climate model rainfall projections (2020s). Our analysis highlights several important challenges and opportunities for addressing climate risks. Challenges primarily relate to the large uncertainties in climate projections for parts of Africa, a weak evidence base of complex, often non-deterministic, climate–society interactions and institutional issues. Opportunities relate to the potential for low-regrets measures to reduce vulnerability to current climate variability which can be integrated with relatively modest effort within a shift in Africa from a disaster-focused view of climate to a long-term perspective that emphasises livelihood security and vulnerability reduction.

Egypt is almost totally dependent upon water that originates from the upstream headwaters of the Nile in the humid Ethiopian and East African highlands. Analysis of rainfall and river flow records during the 20th century demonstrates high levels of interannual and interdecadal variability. This is experienced locally and regionally in the headwater regions of the Nile and internationally through its effects on downstream Nile flows in Sudan and Egypt. Examples of climate variability are presented from areas in the basin where it exerts a strong influence on society; the Ethiopian highlands (links with food security), Lake Victoria (management of non-stationary lake levels) and Egypt (exposure to interdecadal variability of Nile flows). These examples reveal adaptations across various scales by individuals and institutions acting alongside other social and economic considerations. Water resources management in the downstream riparian Egypt has involved institutional level reactive adaptations to prolonged periods of low and high Nile flows. Observed responses include the establishment of more robust contingency planning and early warning systems alongside strategic assessment of water use and planning in response to low flows during the 1980s. In the 1990s high flows have enabled Egypt to pursue opportunistic policies to expand irrigation. These policies are embedded in wider socio-political and economic considerations but increase Egypt's exposure and sensitivity to climate driven fluctuations in Nile flows. Analysis of climate change projections for the region shows there is no clear indication of how Nile flows will be affected because of uncertainty about future rainfall patterns in the basin. In many instances the most appropriate entry point for adaptation to climate change will be coping with climate variability and will play out against the certainty of looming national water scarcity in Egypt due to rapid population growth and its possible exacerbation by water demands from upstream riparians.

Substantial fluctuations in precipitation and runoff have occurred over the Nile Basin in recent decades. Ten-year mean flows of the Blue Nile (Khartoum gauge) during the 20th century have ranged from 42.2 to 56.7 km3 and for the White Nile (Malakal gauge) from 25.5 to 36.9 km3. These fluctuations have been responsible for changes in decade-mean Main Nile discharge of up to ± 20% which have had important consequences for water resource management in both Egypt and Sudan.

This paper reviews the state of knowledge on social vulnerability to climate change in three hot spots (deltas, semi-arid regions and snowpack- or glacier-fed river basins) in Africa, Central Asia and South Asia, using elements of systematic review methods. Social vulnerability is defined as a dynamic state of societies comprising exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We examine whether the hot spots have specific characteristics that tend to increase or decrease social vulnerability, consider suitable scales of analysis for understanding vulnerability, and explore the conceptions of vulnerability adopted in the climate change literature and the nature of the insights this generates. Finally, we identify knowledge gaps in this literature. All three hot spots are characterized by high levels of natural resource dependence, with increasing environmental degradation. They also exhibit unequal policies and patterns of development, which benefit certain segments of society while making others more vulnerable. Vulnerability is driven by multiple factors operating at different scales; however, characterization of cross-scalar interactions is poorly developed in the majority of studies reviewed. Most studies are either large scale, such as broad comparisons of vulnerability across countries, or local, documenting community-level processes. Detailed understanding of the interactions between climate change impacts on natural systems, and socio-economic trajectories, including adaptation, also emerges as a knowledge gap.

This study addresses the role of climate variability in the livelihoods of agricultural communities in Ningxia, Northwest China. Data sources comprise meteorological observations and official reports, complemented by questionnaires and focus group discussions designed around a livelihoods framework. Sample villages were located in three different agricultural systems: irrigated, mixed irrigated/grazing, and rainfed. Much of Ningxia is perennially dry and this is a significant limiting factor to agricultural production in the region, exacerbated by drought and buffered by irrigation mainly supplied from the Yellow River. Climate observations show stable temperatures from the 1950s to the 1980s followed by a positive trend (0.38°C/decade 1961–2010). Precipitation shows very modest trends and low decadal variability. Recent climate variability, particularly a drought from 2004–2006, was perceived to have had a significant effect on agricultural production and access to water, but it was not the only challenge respondents had faced. Susceptibility to drought was higher in the mixed irrigated and grazing and rainfed areas, due to farmers’ greater exposure to climatic hazards and because a higher proportion of their income originated from farming activities. Respondents were using a wide range of measures to retain and enhance soil moisture and maintain agricultural production. The discussion examines challenges in disentangling the role of climate within rapidly changing livelihood systems.