Search

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Tibetan Plateau is a topographic feature of extraordinary dimension and has an important impact on regional and global climate. However, the glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau is more poorly constrained than that of most other formerly glaciated regions such as in North America and Eurasia. On the basis of some field evidence it has been hypothesized that the Tibetan Plateau was covered by an ice sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Abundant field- and chronological evidence for a predominance of local valley glaciation during the past 300,000 calendar years (that is, 300 ka), coupled to an absence of glacial landforms and sediments in extensive areas of the plateau, now refute this concept. This, furthermore, calls into question previous ice sheet modeling attempts which generally arrive at ice volumes considerably larger than allowed for by field evidence. Surprisingly, the robustness of such numerical ice sheet model results has not been widely queried, despite potentially important climate ramifications. We simulated the growth and decay of ice on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 125 ka in response to a large ensemble of climate forcings (90 members) derived from Global Circulation Models (GCMs), using a similar 3D thermomechanical ice sheet model as employed in previous studies. The numerical results include as extreme end members as an ice-free Tibetan Plateau and a plateau-scale ice sheet comparable, in volume, to the contemporary Greenland ice sheet. We further demonstrate that numerical simulations that acceptably conform to published reconstructions of Quaternary ice extent on the Tibetan Plateau cannot be achieved with the employed stand-alone ice sheet model when merely forced by paleoclimates derived from currently available GCMs. Progress is, however, expected if future investigations employ ice sheet models with higher resolution, bidirectional ice sheet-atmosphere feedbacks, improved treatment of the surface mass balance, and regional climate data and climate reconstructions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]