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Improving our confidence in future projections of sea-level rise requires models that can simulate ice-sheet evolution both in the future and in the geological past. A physically accurate treatment of large changes in ice-sheet geometry requires a proper treatment of processes near the margin, like grounding line dynamics, which in turn requires a high spatial resolution in that specific region, so that small-scale topographical features are resolved. This leads to a demand for computationally efficient models, where such a high resolution can be feasibly applied in simulations of 105 – 107 years in duration. Here, we present and evaluate a new ice-sheet model that solves the hybrid SIA–SSA approximation of the stress balance, including a heuristic rule for the grounding-line flux. This is done on a dynamic adaptive mesh which is adapted to the modelled ice-sheet geometry during a simulation. Mesh resolution can be configured to be fine only at specified areas, such as the calving front or the grounding line, as well as specified point locations such as ice-core drill sites. This strongly reduces the number of grid points where the equations need to be solved, increasing the computational efficiency. A high resolution allows the model to resolve small geometrical features, such as outlet glaciers and sub-shelf pinning points, which can significantly affect large-scale ice-sheet dynamics. We show that the model reproduces the analytical solutions or model intercomparison benchmarks for a number of schematic ice-sheet configurations, indicating that the numerical approach is valid. Because of the unstructured triangular mesh, the number of vertices increases less rapidly with resolution than in a square-grid model, greatly reducing the required computation time for high resolutions. A simulation of all four continental ice sheets during an entire 120 kyr glacial cycle, with a 4 km resolution near the grounding line, is expected to take 100–200 wall clock hours on a 16-core system (1600–3200 core hours), implying that this model can be feasibly used for high-resolution palaeo-ice-sheet simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fully coupled ice-sheet–climate modelling over 10 000–100 000-year timescales at high spatial and temporal resolution remains beyond the capability of current computational systems. Forcing an ice-sheet model with precalculated output from a general circulation model (GCM) offers a middle ground, balancing the need to accurately capture both long-term processes, in particular circulation-driven changes in precipitation, and processes requiring a high spatial resolution like ablation. Here, we present and evaluate a model set-up that forces the ANICE 3-D thermodynamic ice-sheet–shelf model calculating the four large continental ice sheets (Antarctica, Greenland, North America, and Eurasia) with precalculated output from two steady-state simulations with the HadCM3 (GCM) using a so-called matrix method of coupling both components, whereby simulations with various levels of pCO2 and ice-sheet configuration are combined to form a time-continuous transient climate forcing consistent with the modelled ice sheets. We address the difficulties in downscaling low-resolution GCM output to the higher-resolution grid of an ice-sheet model and account for differences between GCM and ice-sheet model surface topography ranging from interglacial to glacial conditions. Although the approach presented here can be applied to a matrix with any number of GCM snapshots, we limited our experiments to a matrix of only two snapshots. As a benchmark experiment to assess the validity of this model set-up, we perform a simulation of the entire last glacial cycle from 120 kyr ago to present day. The simulated eustatic sea-level drop at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) for the combined Antarctic, Greenland, Eurasian, and North American ice sheets amounts to 100 m, in line with many other studies. The simulated ice sheets at the LGM agree well with the ICE-5G reconstruction and the more recent DATED-1 reconstruction in terms of total volume and geographical location of the ice sheets. Moreover, modelled benthic oxygen isotope abundance and the relative contributions from global ice volume and deep-water temperature agree well with available data, as do surface temperature histories for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This model strategy can be used to create time-continuous ice-sheet distribution and sea-level reconstructions for geological periods up to several million years in duration, capturing climate-model-driven variations in the mass balance of the ice sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intense rainfall events significantly affect Alpine and Alaskan glaciers through enhanced melting, ice-flow acceleration and subglacial sediment erosion, yet their impact on the Greenland ice sheet has not been assessed. Here we present measurements of ice velocity, subglacial water pressure and meteorological variables from the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet during a week of warm, wet cyclonic weather in late August and early September 2011. We find that extreme surface runoff from melt and rainfall led to a widespread acceleration in ice flow that extended 140 km into the ice-sheet interior. We suggest that the late-season timing was critical in promoting rapid runoff across an extensive bare ice surface that overwhelmed a subglacial hydrological system in transition to a less-efficient winter mode. Reanalysis data reveal that similar cyclonic weather conditions prevailed across southern and western Greenland during this time, and we observe a corresponding ice-flow response at all land- and marine-terminating glaciers in these regions for which data are available. Given that the advection of warm, moist air masses and rainfall over Greenland is expected to become more frequent in the coming decades, our findings portend a previously unforeseen vulnerability of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean. The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Quantifying the future dynamic contribution of such glaciers to sea-level rise (SLR) remains a major challenge because outlet glacier dynamics are poorly understood. Here we present a glacier flow model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini. We use this model to simulate behaviour of four major marine-terminating outlet glaciers, which collectively drain about 22 per cent of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing from a mid-range future warming scenario that predicts warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, we project a contribution of 19 to 30 millimetres to SLR from these glaciers by 2200. This contribution is largely (80 per cent) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. After initial increases, however, dynamic losses from these four outlets remain relatively constant and contribute to SLR individually at rates of about 0.01 to 0.06 millimetres per year. These rates correspond to ice fluxes that are less than twice those of the late 1990s, well below previous upper bounds. For a more extreme future warming scenario (warming by 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100), the projected losses increase by more than 50 per cent, producing a cumulative SLR of 29 to 49 millimetres by 2200. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine records of sediment oxygen isotope compositions show that the Earth's climate has gone through a succession of glacial and interglacial periods during the past million years. But the interpretation of the oxygen isotope records is complicated because both isotope storage in ice sheets and deep-water temperature affect the recorded isotopic composition. Separating these two effects would require long records of either sea level or deep-ocean temperature, which are currently not available. Here we use a coupled model of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and ocean temperatures, forced to match an oxygen isotope record for the past million years compiled from 57 globally distributed sediment cores, to quantify both contributions simultaneously. We find that the ice-sheet contribution to the variability in oxygen isotope composition varied from ten per cent in the beginning of glacial periods to sixty per cent at glacial maxima, suggesting that strong ocean cooling preceded slow ice-sheet build-up. The model yields mutually consistent time series of continental mean surface temperatures between 40 and 80° N, ice volume and global sea level. We find that during extreme glacial stages, air temperatures were 17 ± 1.8 °C lower than present, with a 120 ± 10 m sea level equivalent of continental ice present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation changes, which are used to estimate changes in the mass of the interior regions, are caused by variations in the depth of the firn layer. We quantified the effects of temperature and accumulation variability on firn layer thickness by simulating the 1980-2004 Antarctic firn depth variability. For most of Antarctica, the magnitudes of firn depth changes were comparable to those of observed ice sheet elevation changes. The current satellite observational period (∼15 years) is too short to neglect these fluctuations in firn depth when computing recent ice sheet mass changes. The amount of surface lowering in the Amundsen Sea Embayment revealed by satellite radar altimetry (1995-2003) was increased by including firn depth fluctuations, while a large area of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet slowly grew as a result of increased accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]