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We combine a glacier outburst flood model with a glacier flow model to investigate decadal to centennial variations in outburst floods originating from ice-dammed marginal basins. Marginal basins can form due to the retreat and detachment of tributary glaciers, a process that often results in remnant ice being left behind. The remnant ice, which can act like an ice shelf or break apart into a pack of icebergs, limits a basin's water storage capacity but also exerts pressure on the underlying water and promotes drainage. We find that during glacier retreat there is a strong, nearly linear relationship between flood water volume and peak discharge for individual basins, despite large changes in glacier and remnant ice volumes that are expected to impact flood hydrographs. Consequently, peak discharge increases over time as long as there is remnant ice remaining in a basin, and peak discharge begins to decrease once a basin becomes ice-free. Thus, similar size outburst floods can occur at very different stages of glacier retreat. We also find that the temporal variability in outburst flood magnitude depends on how the floods initiate. Basins that connect to the subglacial hydrological system only after reaching flotation depth yield greater long-term variability in outburst floods than basins that are continuously connected to the subglacial hydrological system (and therefore release floods that initiate before reaching flotation depth). Our results highlight the importance of improving our understanding of both changes in basin geometry and outburst flood initiation mechanisms in order to better assess outburst flood hazards and their impacts on landscape and ecosystem evolution.

Glaciers of the central Karakorum region are the primary source of fresh water and lifeline for downstream inhabitants but changing climatic conditions put serious impacts on glaciers which cause rapid ablation and the creation of glacial lakes. Many natural hazards are associated with glaciers and glacial lakes like Glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF). Using Geographic Information System and Remote sensing techniques on Hispar glacier which is part of central Karakorum, the current study applied Landsat (TM, ETM, ETM+, and OLI) and sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Further, mapping to the Hispar glacier is done to know the variations in glacier and supraglacial lakes between 1990 and 2019. According to the results, about 90% of glacial ponds are present in the debris-covered area while only 10% are present in the clean ice and scow area. This study identifies the decreasing trend in the number and the area of glacial lakes. In 1990, about 42 glacial ponds were covering a total area of 0.733km2, whereas, in 2019, 20 glacial lakes were covering an area of 0.18km2. In the last three decades (1990-2019) about 20km2 of clean ice and snow is increased. The findings of climate data revealed that there is a decreasing trend of temperature and an increasing trend of precipitation. Since 1995, about 0.75oC temperature is observed in HRB. The findings of this study somehow support the Karakoram anomaly.

The Arctic regions experience intense transformations, such that efficient methods are needed to monitor and understand Arcticlandscape changes in response to climate warming and low-frequency high-magnitude events. One example of such events,capable of causing serious landscape changes, is glacier lake outburst floods. On 6 August 2017, a flood event related to glaciallake outburst affected the Zackenberg River (NE Greenland). Here, we provided a very high-resolution dataset representingunique time-series of data captured immediately before (5 August 2017), during (6 August 2017), and after (8 August 2017)the flood. Our dataset covers a 2.1-km-long distal section of the Zackenberg River. The available files comprise: (1)unprocessed images captured using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV): https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4495282 (Tomczykand Ewertowski, 2021a); and (2) results of structure-from-motion (SfM) processing (orthomosaics, digital elevation models,and hillshade models in a raster format), uncertainty assessments (precision maps) and effects of geomorphological mappingin vector formats: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4498296 (Tomczyk and Ewertowski, 2021b). Potential applications of thepresented dataset include: (1) assessment and quantification of landscape changes as an immediate result of glacier lakeoutburst flood; (2) long-term monitoring of high-Arctic river valley development (in conjunction with other datasets); (3)establishing a baseline for quantification of geomorphological impacts of future glacier lake outburst floods; (4) assessment ofgeohazards related to bank erosion and debris flow development (hazards for research station infrastructure – station buildingsand bridge); (5) monitoring of permafrost degradation; and (6) modelling flood impacts on river ecosystem, transport capacity,and channel stability. &nbsp

The Kangri Karpo Mountain Range on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau frequently experiences glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study assessed the risk of outburst floods for Guangxieco Proglacial Lake (GPL) in this Mountain Range as a typical case to reveal the effects of rapid glacial change. The area of Gongzo Glacier behind GPL decreased by 7.39 ± 0.10% from 1987 to 2019, while this glacier advanced by 32.45 m from 5 June to 27 October in 1988. Guangxieco Proglacial Lake decreased from 0.42 ± 0.03 km2 in 1987 to 0.19 ± 0.03 km2 in 1988 and then continuously expanded to 0.43 ± 0.04 km2 in 2019. Heavy precipitation occurred before 15 July 1988, when no supraglacial lake existed. Meanwhile, sustained abnormally high air temperature caused accelerated glacier and snow melting. Since 1988, a larger volume of rainfall and meltwater impounded by the ice wall caused an increase in the basal water pressure in the glacier. A significant increase in winter mass balance has caused a further increase in the downward gravity component of glacier sliding. As a result, the glacier advanced rapidly while reopening previously blocked subglacial drainage systems. The accumulating subglacial water rapidly drained into the Proglacial Lake causing an elevated lake level and a GLOF event. However, the current area of the glacial lake has recovered to the scale present before the outburst in 1988. Therefore, local government agencies and the local community should improve early warning systems and take measures designed to prevent a new GLOF and to minimize the risk of a recurrence of a GPL outburst.

In the Teskey Range of the Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Republic), five outburst flood disasters from short-lived glacial lakes in 2006, 2008, 2013, 2014, and 2019 caused severe damages in the downstream part. Short-lived glacial lakes in the Teskey Range grow rapidly and drain within a few months, due to closure and opening of an outlet ice tunnel in an ice-cored moraine complex at the glacier front. In addition to these factors, summer meltwater from the glacier can cause rapid growth. Outburst floods of this lake type are a major hazard in this region and differ from the moraine-dam failures common to the eastern Himalaya. To clarify how short-lived glacial lakes store and drain water over short periods, we use results from a field survey and satellite data to analyze the water level, area, volume, and discharge of Korumdu lake (2017–2019) as well as satellite data to monitor the appearance of 160 other short-lived lakes (2013–2018). Except in 2016, Korumdu lake appeared and drained within about 1 month during all the summers. Water level data recorded by a data logger and time-lapse camera images show that the lake appeared and expanded suddenly from July to August in 2017–2019. The timing of lake appearance indicates that the lake formed when an outlet ice tunnel (subsurface channel) drainage was blocked by depositions of an ice–debris mixture due to ice melting and not by freezing of stored water. For 2017, we used uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV)-derived digital surface models (DSMs) and water levels, finding that the lake's volume reached 234 000 m3 within 29 d, and then the water discharged for 17 d at a maximum rate of 0.66 m3/s. This discharge rate is more than 20 times smaller than those found earlier (2006–2014) for four short-lived lakes of tunnel type in this region. We argue that this large variation in discharge rates is due to variation in the dimensions of the outlet ice tunnels. For the 160 other short-lived glacial lakes, we found that 117 formed during the ice-melt period from July to September. This timing and our findings for Korumdu lake show that these 117 lakes likely formed primarily because deposition of an ice–debris mixture blocked the outlet tunnel, though increased glacial melt would also have contributed. In the Teskey Range, the appearance of short-lived glacial lakes on the moraine complexes at glacier fronts is inevitable in summer when the melting rate is high. Similar behavior of short-lived lakes may occur in other mountain regions of Central Asia, such as the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains, wherever ice-cored moraine complexes exist within mountain permafrost zone. Moreover, increasing temperatures may increase both tunnel size and lake-basin size (lake volume), leading to increased hazard potential from such lakes in the future.

A potential glacial lake outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) threatens Huaraz, a city of 120,000 people. In 1941, an outburst flood destroyed one-third of the city and caused at least 1,800 fatalities. Since pre-industrial times, Lake Palcacocha has expanded due to the retreat of Palcaraju glacier. Here we used observations and numerical models to evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to the glacier’s retreat and glacial lake outburst flood hazard. We found that the magnitude of human-induced warming equals between 85 and 105% (5–95% confidence interval) of the observed 1 °C warming since 1880 in this region. We conclude that it is virtually certain (>99% probability) that the retreat of Palcaraju glacier to the present day cannot be explained by natural variability alone, and that the retreat by 1941 represented an early impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Our central estimate is that the overall retreat is entirely attributable to the observed temperature trend, and that the resulting change in the geometry of the lake and valley has substantially increased the outburst flood hazard. Human-induced warming is responsible for the retreat of Palcaraju glacier and the associated increase in glacial lake outburst flood hazard, according to an analysis of observations and numerical models.

Shishper lake is an ice-dammed lake in northern Pakistan that has drained twice within one (1) year. The parameters evaluated in this paper are the lake’s area, volume, peak discharge, and its outburst events using various satellite images from November 2018 to June 2020. Based on satellite imagery and empirical approaches, the lake formed in November 2018 and reached a maximum of 0.34 km2 till its first breach that occurred on 22 June 2019. Since June 2019, the lake drained till September 2019. After that, the flow was blocked again, and the lake expanded to an area of 0.27 km2 till its second outburst event that happened on May 29, 2020. Eight cross-sectional profiles of Hassanabad ravine are generated based on peak discharge in the lake’s rapid outburst. The results indicate that, the peak discharge for both 2019 and 2020 was more than 4500 m3 s−1. Delineation of downstream Hassanabad ravine shows that more than 1000 buildings and 2000+ population is prone to flood. However, the lake drain twice steadily, but it has a high potential to cause severe damages if it bursts abruptly.

The study analyzed synthetically spatiotemporal distribution and evolution status of moraine-dammed lakes and potential dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and revealed integrated risk degree of county-based glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) disaster by combining hazard of PDGLs, regional exposure, vulnerability of exposed elements, and adaptability and using the analytic hierarchy process and weighted comprehensive method. The results show there are 654 moraine-dammed lakes (> 0.018 km2) with a total area of 200.25 km2 in the QTP in the 2010s, of which 246 lakes with a total area of 78.38 km2 are identified as PDGLs. Compared with 1990s, the number of lakes decreased only by 2.22%, whereas total lake area expanded by 25%. All PDGLs area increased by 84.40% and was higher significantly than 4.06% of non-PDGLs. The zones at very high and high integrated risk of GLOF disasters are concentrated on the middle Himalayas, middle-eastern Nyainqentanglha, and southern Tanggula Mountain. On the county scale, Nyalam, Tingri, Dinggye, Lhozhag, Zhongba, Gamba, Kangma of the Himalayas, and Nierong, Dingqing, Banbar, Baqing, Bomi, and Basu of the Nyainqentanglha are located in the very high-risk zone, whereas other areas have low and very low integrated risk. The regionalization results for GLOF disasters risk are consistent with the distribution of historical GLOF disaster sites.

In recent years, when organizing works of the Russian Antarctic Expedition (RAE), considerable attention is given to the safety of logistics operations carried out at Russian stations and field bases. The main factors that threaten polar explorers are extensive systems of cracks and water breakthroughs, confined to the marginal, the most dynamic part of the outlet glaciers, in the area of which the most part of stations are located. One example of the impact of these processes on transport communications in Antarctica is the breakthrough of an intraglacial reservoir in the Dolk glacier near the station Progress (Larsemann Hills, Eastern Antarctica) in the season of the 62nd RAE (2016/17). The outburst resulted in the formation of a huge hole in the glacier body and an extensive system of cracks directed towards its flanks. This took place on the part of the route connecting the Progress Station with the point of organization the sledge-tractor train marches to inner regions of the Antarctic continent. Thus, this destroyed the transport links between these points. That is why during the seasonal works of the 63rd RAE (2017/18) geophysical surveys were carried out around the hole by means of the GPR profiling for the purpose to find the best way and organize a new all-season route. The GPR soundings performed at frequencies of 900 and 150 MHz, made possible to fix numerous cracks and large volumes of melt water accumulations in the near-surface part of the ice layer. The analysis of the obtained time sections and the assessment of the depths of cracks and watered areas did show that the detected objects in the glacier body were not dangerous for advancing of the sledge-caterpillar equipment passing by the hole. These surveys allowed planning the optimal new route, after which it was rolled up and put into operation. The logistical connection between the station and the airfield has been restored. Until the end of the field season, the new all-season route was actively used for transportation.

Ground-penetrating radar data acquired in the 2016/17 austral summer on Sørsdal Glacier, East Antarctica, provide evidence for meltwater lenses within porous surface ice that are conceptually similar to firn aquifers observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Arctic and Alpine glaciers. These englacial water bodies are associated with a dry relict surface basin and consistent with perennial drainage into an interconnected englacial drainage system, which may explain a large englacial outburst flood observed in satellite imagery in the early 2016/17 melt season. Our observations indicate the rarely-documented presence of an englacial hydrological system in Antarctica, with implications for the storage and routing of surface meltwater. Future work should ascertain the spatial prevalence of such systems around the Antarctic coastline, and identify the degree of surface runoff redistribution and storage in the near surface, to quantify their impact on surface mass balance.

Abnormal glacier movement is likely to result in canyon-type hazards chain, such as the barrier lake of Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon formed by glacier debris flow in October 2018 in China. Glacier hazard usually evolves from the glacier surge and may occur in a regular cycle. Understanding the characteristics and process of glacier surge is important for early hazard recognition and hazard assessment. Based on field investigations, remote sensing interpretations and SAR offset-tracking surveys, this study confirms a typical glacier surge in the northeast Pamir, and presents its characteristics and processes. “Black ice” mixed moraines choking uplift and overflowing lateral marine are the most important scenic characteristics, which were formed under the conditions of stagnant glacier downstream and abundant super-glacial moraine. Glacier movement event can be divided into a five-period cycle including quiescent, inoculation, initiation, fracture and decline. This surge event lasted for about 300 days, initiated in February 2015 developed extensive fracturing zone in spring and early summer at maximum velocity of 10±0.95 m/day, declined after August 2015 and recovered to quiescent status in October 2015 for the next inoculation. The average height of glacier “receiving” area increased by 20–40 m with 2.7–3.6×108 m3 ice transferred from glacier “reservoir”, and this volume accumulation again require 50–100 years for glacier mass balance which gives approximately 100 years frequency of the glacier surge. Nevertheless, long-period increase of precipitation and temperature were favorable for the occurrence, hydrological instability is the direct triggering mechanism, and while the Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazards are unlikely to occur with this surge.

An Ms6.9 earthquake in the Yarlung Tsangpo gorge on November 18, 2017 caused more than 700 landslides concentrating along the gorge’s great bend, and three dammed lakes. The location and area of the landslides are obtained by interpreting high-resolution satellite images before and after the earthquake. About 31.45 Mm3 of sediment from the landslides are distributed in seven catchments that are highly susceptible to debris flows. In 2018, at least three large-scale glacier-debris flows happened at Sedongpu, one of the seven catchments, and blocked temporarily the main river twice. The subsequent inundation and outburst floods resulted in infrastructure and property losses extensively beyond the high-seismic-intensity zone. Increase in the frequency of debris flows is attributed to the instability of glaciers and sediment supply caused by the earthquake. Glacier-debris flows will remain active for a long period due to massive glacial till, abundant rainfall, and meltwater. Geomorphic hazard chain triggered by such a mid-strong earthquake demonstrates that although coseismic landslides only occur in a limited area, the space and duration of the quake-induced hazards could extend largely under special geographical conditions.

A case study of glacial lakes outburst flood (GLOF) hazard assessment by satellite Earth observation (EO) and numerical modelling is presented for the supraglacial and ice-contact lakes on Thangothang Chhu glacier, Chomolhari area (Bhutan). Detailed geomorphological mapping, including landslide and rock glacier inventories, as well as surface displacement determination using an interferometric SAR (InSAR) satellite, allowed a GLOF hazard assessment for lake Wa-007 to be performed. Outburst scenario modelling was achieved by combining both empirical and numerical modelling approaches, revealing that only a flood wave can have an impact on the two human settlements located downslope of Wa-007 lake. The worst-case scenario, modelled thanks to r.damflood, allowed the wave-front arrival time, the maximum water depth and the arrival time of maximum water height for the two human settlements to be quantified. A long-term monitoring strategy based entirely on EO data, with an update cycle of 5 years, is proposed to assess the future evolution of the area.

Glacier collapse is a fairly new type of glacier-related disasters on the Asian Water Towers (AWTs) in the warming climate. On 16 October and 29 October 2018, two glacier collapses occurred in the Sedongpu Basin, 7 km downstream from Gyala Village, Paizhen Town, Miling County, on the Yarlung Tsangpo River (YTR). The ice and entrained debris flows caused by the glacier collapses blocked the YTR, resulting in a potential threat to residents and transport lines upstream and downstream. Through post-event field investigations with a helicopter and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), remote sensing interpretation, and seismic, hydrological, and meteorological observations, the process and potential mechanisms of the glacier collapse-induced river blocking (GCRB) disasters were investigated. We confirmed that the first glacier collapse event occurred at 22:48 (Beijing time) on 16 October 2018 and the second began at 08:03 on 29 October 2018. Approximately 130 × 106 m3 of ice and debris detached from the glacier during the glacier collapse, and we calculated that the river blocking fans caused by the first and second glacier collapse event covered ~1.36 km2 and ~ 1.29 km2 on the main watercourse of the YTR, respectively. We determined that the GCRB incidents represent a disaster chain of glacier collapse → glacial debris flow → river blockage → dammed lake → outburst flood. These incidents arise due to a combination of factors, including glacier activity, climate warming, heavy precipitation, pre-seismic activity, and high topographic relief. In the context of climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau, such glacier collapse induced disaster chains will continue or even intensify in the future. To protect against glacier collapse disasters in the Grand Canyon on the YTR, we established a monitoring and early warning system (EWS), which has already successfully sounded alerts for GCRB incidents. As a major element of an integrated risk management strategy, the EWS represents a viable and promising tool for mitigating climate change-related risks.

Glacier outburstfloods are a major hazard in glacierized catchments. Global analyses have shownreduced frequency of glacierfloods over recent decades but there is limited longer-term data on eventmagnitude and frequency. Here, we present a Holocene palaeoflood record from the Río Baker (ChileanPatagonia), quantifying the discharge and timing of glacierfloods over millennial timescales. A cata-strophicflood of 110,000 m3/s (0.11 Sv) occurred at 9.6±0.8 ka, duringfinal stages of the Late GlacialInterglacial Transition, followed byfiveflood-phases coeval or post-dating Holocene neoglacials. Highestflood frequencies occurred at 4.3e4.4 ka, with 26floods of minimum discharges of 10,000e11,000 m3/s,and 0.6 ka with 10floods exceeding 4600e5700 m3/s. The largest modern outburstflood recordedsurpassed ~3810 m3/s. Thus glacierflood magnitude declines from the order of 0.1 to 0.01 Sv over theEarly to Mid Holocene, and to 0.001 Sv in the instrumental record., GB was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities. VT would like to thank the Natural Resources Defence Council and Royal Holloway University of London Research Strategy Fund (RHUL-RSF) for funding initialfield visits that led tothis research. AD thanks equipment and field support from CIEP, B.Reid, DGA-Aysen, J. Tureo, C. Meier, C. Olivares, H. Soto, M. Williams(U Greenwich) and NERC-GEF. Xavier Rodriguez-Lloveras providedfield assistance duringfield work in April 2014.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through the Hunza River basin of Pakistan. The current study investigates the creation and effects of end moraine, supra-glacial, and barrier lakes by field visits and remote sensing techniques along the CPEC in the Hunza River basin. The surging and moraine type glaciers are considered the most dangerous type of glaciers that cause Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the study basin. It can be concluded from the 40 years observations of Karakoram glaciers that surge-type and non-surge-type glaciers are not significantly different with respect to mass change. The recurrent surging of Khurdopin Glacier resulted in the creation of Khurdopin Glacial Lake in the Shimshal valley of the Hunza River basin. Such glacial lakes offer main sources of freshwater; however, when their dams are suddenly breached and water drained, catastrophic GLOFs appear and pose a great threat to people and infrastructure in downstream areas. This situation calls for an in-depth study on GLOF risks along the CPEC route and incorporation of GLOF for future policy formulation in the country for the CPEC project so that the government may take serious action for prevention, response to GLOFs, and rehabilitation and reconstruction of the areas.

High mountain areas are prone to extreme hydrological events, and their study is especially important in the context of ongoing intensive deglaciation. In this research, a model “chain” consisting of a hydrodynamic model and a runoff formation model is adopted to simulate a glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) from Bashkara Lake (the Central Caucasus, Russia) and its effect on downstream. In addition to an actual GLOF event that occurred on 1 September 2017 and led to casualties and significant destruction in the Adylsu and Baksan Rivers valleys, possible scenarios for the re-outburst of the lake are considered. The hydrographs of the outburst and the downstream movement of the flood wave along the Adylsu River valley are estimated using STREAM_2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The water discharges in the entire river network of the Baksan River are assessed using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) runoff formation model. The output flood hydrograph from the hydrodynamic model is set as additional input into the Baksan River runoff formation model in the upper reaches of the Adylsu River. As a result of the simulations, estimates for the contribution of GLOFs and precipitation to an increase in peak discharge along the Baksan River were obtained. The actual outburst flood contributed 45% and precipitation 30% to the peak flow in the Baksan River at the mouth of the Adylsu River (10 km from the outburst site). In Tyrnyauz (40 km from the outburst site), the contributions of the outburst flood and precipitation were equal and, in Zayukovo (70 km from the outburst site), the outburst flood contributed only 20% to the peak flow, whereas precipitation contributed 44%. Similar calculations were made for future potential re-outburst flood, taking into account climatic changes with an increase in air temperatures of 2 °C, an increase in precipitation of 10% in winter and a decrease of 10% in summer. The maximum discharge of the re-outburst flood in the Adylsu River mouth, according to model estimations, will be approximately three times less than the discharge of the actual outburst on 1 September 2017 and can contribute up to 18% of the peak discharge in the Baksan River at the confluence.

The glaciers in the Himalayan region are nature's valuable source of fresh water and these frozen reservoirs release large amounts of ice melt water to many of the major rivers of this region. Rapid accumulation of water in the glacial lakes can lead to a sudden breach of their unstable moraine ‘dams’. The resultant discharges of huge amounts of water and debris - a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF)/Flash Flood - often have catastrophic effects downstream. The Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) has developed ultrasonic sensor based monitoring system, which continuously records the fluctuations in water level as well as the ice thickness which forms over the lake surface. The sensor electronics is in link with Satellite through DRT payload of INSAT-3C. This is first-of-its-kind system in the country and will be a great boon to the nation in the area of disaster forecast and management. Currently, the system is deployed at Shako Chho (4987 m above msl) and Kupup Chho (3982 m above msl) glacial lakes.

Rapid growth of proglacial lakes in the current warming climate can pose significant outburst flood hazards, increase rates of ice mass loss, and alter the dynamic state of glaciers. We studied the nature and rate of proglacial lake evolution at Pasterze Glacier (Austria) in the period 1998–2019 using different remote-sensing (photogrammetry, laser scanning) and fieldwork-based (global navigation satellite system – GNSS, time-lapse photography, geoelectrical resistivity tomography – ERT, and bathymetry) data. Glacier thinning below the spillway level and glacier recession caused flooding of the glacier, initially forming a glacier-lateral to supraglacial lake with subaerial and subaquatic debris-covered dead-ice bodies. The observed lake size increase in 1998–2019 followed an exponential curve (1998 – 1900 m2, 2019 – 304 000 m2). ERT data from 2015 to 2019 revealed widespread existence of massive dead-ice bodies exceeding 25 m in thickness near the lake shore. Several large-scale and rapidly occurring buoyant calving events were detected in the 48 m deep basin by time-lapse photography, indicating that buoyant calving is a crucial process for the fast lake expansion. Estimations of the ice volume losses by buoyant calving and by subaerial ablation at a 0.35 km2 large lake-proximal section of the glacier reveal comparable values for both processes (ca. 1×106 m3) for the period August 2018 to August 2019. We identified a sequence of processes: glacier recession into a basin and glacier thinning below the spillway level; glacio-fluvial sedimentation in the glacial–proglacial transition zone covering dead ice; initial formation and accelerating enlargement of a glacier-lateral to supraglacial lake by ablation of glacier ice and debris-covered dead ice forming thermokarst features; increase in hydrostatic disequilibrium leading to destabilization of ice at the lake bottom or at the near-shore causing fracturing, tilting, disintegration, or emergence of new icebergs due to buoyant calving; and gradual melting of icebergs along with iceberg capsizing events. We conclude that buoyant calving, previously not reported from the European Alps, might play an important role at alpine glaciers in the future as many glaciers are expected to recede into valley or cirque overdeepenings.

Suicide Basin is a partly glacierized marginal basin of Mendenhall Glacier, Alaska, that has released glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) annually since 2011. The floods cause inundation and erosion in the Mendenhall Valley, impacting homes and other infrastructure. Here, we utilize in-situ and remote sensing data to assess the recent evolution and current state of Suicide Basin. We focus on the 2018 and 2019 melt seasons, during which we collected most of our data, partly using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). To provide longer-term context, we analyze DEMs collected since 2006 and model glacier surface mass balance over the 2006–2019 period. During the 2018 and 2019 outburst flood events, Suicide Basin released ~30 × 106 m3 of water within approximately 4–5 days. Since lake drainage was partial in both years, these ~30 × 106 m3 represent only a fraction (~60%) of the basin's total storage capacity. In contrast to previous years, subglacial drainage was preceded by supraglacial outflow over the ice dam, which lasted ~1 day in 2018 and 6 days in 2019. Two large calving events occurred in 2018 and 2019, with submerged ice breaking off the main glacier during lake filling, thereby increasing the basin's storage capacity. In 2018, the floating ice in the basin was 36 m thick on average. In 2019, ice thickness was 29 m, suggesting rapid decay of the ice tongue despite increasing ice inflow from Mendenhall Glacier. The ice dam at the basin entrance thinned by more than 5 m a–1 from 2018 to 2019, which is approximately double the rate of the reference period 2006–2018. While ice-dam thinning reduces water storage capacity in the basin, that capacity is increased by declining ice volume in the basin and longitudinal lake expansion, with the latter process challenging to predict. The potential for premature drainage onset (i.e., drainage before the lake's storage capacity is reached), intermittent drainage decelerations, and early drainage termination further complicates prediction of future GLOF events.

In this study, the Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) that occurred over Kedarnath in June 2013 was modeled using integrated observations from the field and Remote Sensing (RS). The lake breach parameters such as area, depth, breach, and height have been estimated from the field observations and Remote Sensing (RS) data. A number of modelling approaches, including Snow Melt Runoff Model (SRM), Modified Single Flow model (MSF), Watershed Management System (WMS), Simplified Dam Breach Model (SMPDBK) and BREACH were used to model the GLOF. Estimations from SRM produced a runoff of about 22.7 m3 during 16–17, June 2013 over Chorabari Lake. Bathymetry data reported that the lake got filled to its maximum capacity (3822.7 m3) due to excess discharge. Hydrograph obtained from the BREACH model revealed a peak discharge of about 1699 m3/s during an intense water flow episode that lasted for 10–15 minutes on 17th June 2013. Excess discharge from heavy rainfall and snowmelt into the lake increased its hydrostatic pressure and the lake breached cataclysmically.

A detailed understanding of calving processes at the lacustrine margins of the Greenland ice sheet is necessary for accurately forecasting its dynamic response to ongoing climate change. However, existing data sets of lacustrine calving are limited to summer seasons and to alpine glaciers. Here, we use an integrated time‐lapse and structure‐from‐motion approach to generate the first continuous year‐round volumetric record of calving processes at a lacustrine ice sheet margin. We identify two distinct calving regimes that are associated with melt‐undercutting and lake ice cover. We also find that calving rates respond rapidly to sudden lake drainage. Given that lake temperature, lake ice cover, and sudden lake drainages are controlled by air temperature and ice‐margin thinning, we suggest that climate change, manifested in lengthening summer seasons, will accelerate rates of mass loss and terminus recession at lacustrine ice‐margins in Greenland.

Kyagar glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have long been a serious nature hazard in Yarkant river basins of the Chinese Karakoram, threatening more than one million people. Between 1810 and 2018, 34 Kyagar GLOF events have been recorded, of which 26 occurred from 1960 onwards and their occurrence frequency reaches at least three times in each decade. An early warning system established in 2011 has successfully predicted the Kyagar GLOF events in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, which provides an important reference for the monitoring and risk pre-evaluation of the GLOFs in Karakoram.

Glacier recession and formation of glacial lakes along with outburst flood hazards are increasing in response to changing climate in the Himalayan region. This study describes evolution of Dalung and Padam glaciers and their associated lakes employing multi-temporal datasets of Landsat (MSS, TM, ETM+), Indian Remote Sensing LISS-III, Google EarthTM, ASTER GDEM and Survey of India topographic maps. The Dalung Glacier (DG) and Lake (DL) are present in Suru River catchment whereas the Padam Glacier (PG) and Lake (PL) are present in Tsarap River catchment of Zanskar basin, western Himalaya. From 1962 to 2015; the DG and PG have shrunk at different rates. The DG has shrunk by 2.6 ± 0.56 km2 (19.2 ± 4.1%) at a rate of 0.05 ± 0.01 km2 a−1 whereas, the PG has shrunk by 3.4 ± 0.65 km2 (12.7 ± 2.4%) at a rate of 0.06 ± 0.01 km2 a−1. The frontal recession was recorded as 1.240 ± 0.02 km (15.7 ± 2.0%) at a rate of 20 ± 0.4 m a−1 for DG and 2.690 ± 0.5 m (21.3 ± 2.1%) at a rate of 50.7 ± 0.1 m a−1 for PG. Consequently, the proglacial glacial lakes have formed indicating an expansion of 20 ± 3.4% (DL) and 58 ± 4.5% (PL) during 1990–2015. Using integrated criteria of standard indices for the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs), the lakes were found to be vulnerable and have a potential to cause breaching in the coming years. In order to provide inputs for the emergency action plan, one dimensional MIKE 11 Model was used to generate the peak flood hydrographs at the lake and other vulnerable sites downstream. Highest peak discharge of 3361.7 m3 s−1 (DL) and 4210.3 m3 s−1 (PL) were estimated at the lake sites which has reduced to 1520.9 m3 s−1 and 1722.4 m3 s−1 respectively at the outlet sites. The reduced discharge at downstream sites still bears the potential to create dangerous flood hazards.

Gega lake, in southeastern Tibet, was formed by the blocking of Yarlung Tsangpo gorge by a glacier and is a well-known example of geomorphological damming. However, the evolution of the damming process at the site is still not understood in detail. Here, we use measurements of multiple magnetic parameters of the sediments from the Yusong (YS) 3 section, which is well-dated by optically stimulated luminescence, to provide a detailed history of the late stage of Gega dammed lake since 17.0 ka. Low-frequency field magnetic susceptibility (χlf) increases upwards gradually from 25 to 79 × 10−8 m3/kg above 5.5 m, but other magnetic properties, such as frequency-dependent magnetic susceptibility (χfd % and χfd), susceptibility of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (χARM), and saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM) did not show a similar degree of enhancement. The magnetic grain size indicators of χARM/χlf, χARM/SIRM, and χlf/SIRM all indicate a trend of increasing magnetic grain size from the 5.5 m to the top of section; however, the bulk sediment grain size decreases gradually within the same interval. The total organic carbon is very low (0.2–0.7%), and thus, it is unlikely that the sedimentary environment is sufficiently strongly reducing to lead to the dissolution of magnetic minerals. Therefore, we infer that the coarsening-upwards of the magnetic grain size, and the increasing magnetic susceptibility from 5.5 m, reflect the gradual preferential preservation of magnetic minerals, caused by the deepening of the lake. Thus, we interpret the magnetic record of the section as reflecting the gradual deepening of the late stage of Gega ice-dammed lake. Last, the abrupt disappearance of the lake may have resulted in an outburst flood.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are common where highly dynamic temperate glaciers exist, since seasonal changes in ice-conduit dynamics can start rapid lake drainages. Lakes dammed by cold-based glaciers, however, are less common and GLOFs from these glaciers have been rarely reported. Understanding both the origin and the failure mechanisms of lakes dammed by cold-based glaciers and subsequent flood processes is essential for territorial planning. We study a remarkable GLOF triggered by the failure of a subglacial lake in the Manflas Valley, Arid Andes of Chile, in 1985 providing insights into the lake’s origin, clarifying the failure mechanism and modelling the GLOF event-related dynamics. To identify the factors that contributed to the lake formation and failure, we analysed remotely sensed images, meteorological and topographic data. The GLOF dynamics were reconstructed using empirical (LAHARZ and MSF) and physical models (RAMMS). The obtained results were compared with field data of flow extent, depth and velocity. We show that the failed lake (4 × 106 m3) formed in a low-slope (≤ 10°) area and that extreme (≥ 90th percentile) annual precipitation before the GLOF contributed to the lake filling and probably to the dam collapse. The lake likely drained rapidly after mechanical failure of the ice-dam producing a high energy sediment-laden flow. We show the challenges of modelling large flows over long distances (dozens of kilometres) especially when flows change between Newtonian and Non-Newtonian phases. A GLOF can still endanger the Manflas Valley since a remnant of the lake of about 220.000 m3 exists and economic assets are located along the1985 GLOF path.

The frequency of glacier lake outbursts floods (GLOFs) is likely to increase with the ongoing glacier retreat, which produces new glacial lakes and enlarges existing ones. Here, we simulate the outburst of a potentially dangerous glacial lake in Bhutan by applying hydrodynamic modelling. Although the lake volume is known, several parameters connected to the dam breach and the routing of the flood are rough estimates or assumptions, which introduce uncertainties in the results. For this reason, we create an ensemble of nine outburst scenarios. The simulation of magnitude and timing of possible inundation depths is an important asset to prepare emergency action plans. For our case study in the Mo Chu River Basin, the results show that, even under the worst case scenario, little damage to residential buildings can be expected. However, such an outburst flood would probably destroy infrastructure and farmland and might even affect the operation of a hydroelectric powerplant more than 120 km downstream the lake. Our simulation efforts revealed that, by using a 30-m elevation model instead of a 5-m raster, flood magnitude and inundation areas are overestimated significantly, which highly suggests the use of high-resolution terrain data. These results may be a valuable input for risk mitigation efforts.

Glacial lakes are forming and evolving in the high-mountain regions as a result of glacier recession induced by global climate change. To provide comprehensive information about the spatial distribution and temporal changes of glacial lakes an updated detailed inventory has been developed in a study area of 7300 km2 for four subbasins of the northwestern Himalaya for 1971, 2003, and 2011 using Corona, ASTER, and IRS-R2 data. In total, 77, 133, and 154 glacial lakes larger than 1000 m2 covered areas of 1.9, 3.4, and 4.3 km2 in 1971, 2003, and 2011, respectively. The majority of the lakes (75%) are glacier-fed and exhibit a significant expansion trend as compared to stable nonglacier-fed lakes. Around 75% of the lakes have surface drainage and excess water from precipitation is drained off, hence we conclude that glacier meltwater and vacated space due to glacier recession dominates the expansion and formation of lakes in the region. In addition, the formation of new lakes at higher altitude and the growth of glacier-fed lakes correspond well with the glacier recession. The study presents a comprehensive database of glacial lakes for long-term monitoring, outburst flood hazard assessment, and water resource management in the northwestern Himalaya.

Outburst floods originating in moraine-dammed lakes represent a significant geomorphological process as well as a specific type of threat for local communities in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru (8.5°–10° S; 77°–78° W). An exceptional concentration of catastrophic floods has been reported from the Cordillera Blanca in the first half of 20th Century (1930s–1950s), leading to thousands of fatalities. The main objective of this paper is to provide a revised and comprehensive overview of geomorphologically effective floods in the area of interest, using various documentary data sources, verified by analysis of remotely sensed images (1948–2013) and enhanced by original field data. Verified events (n = 28; 4 not mentioned before) are analysed from the perspective of spatiotemporal distribution, pre-flood conditions, causes, mechanisms and geomorphological impacts as well as socioeconomical consequences, revealing certain patterns and similar features. GLOFs are further classified according to their magnitude: 5 extreme events, 8 major events and 15 minor events are distinguished, referring to the quantified geomorphological and socioeconomical impacts. Selected moraine dams and flood deposits are dated using lichenometric dating. Special attention is given to moraine dam breaches - the most frequent type of water release with the most significant consequences. Selected major events and their consequences are studied in detail in a separate section. Finally, a general schematic model of lake formation, growth and post-flood evolution reflecting initial topographical setting and glacier retreat is introduced and the utilization of the obtained results is outlined.

The environmental challenges posed by global warming in the Himalayan region include early and rapid melting of snow and glaciers, creation of new lakes, and expansion of old ones posing a high risk of glacial lakes outburst flood (GLOF) hazard for downstream communities. According to various elevation ranges, 3044 lakes were analyzed basinwide in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) ranges of Pakistan using multisensor remote sensing data of the 2001–2013 period. An overall increase in glacial lakes was observed at various altitudinal ranges between 2500 and 5500, m out of which noticeable change by number was within the 4000–4500 m range. The analysis carried out by glacial-fed lakes and nonglacial-fed lakes in different river basins indicated variable patterns depending on the geographic location in the HKH region. The correlation analysis of parameters like lake area, expansion rate, and elevation was performed with 617 glacial lakes distributed in various river basins of the three HKH ranges. Lake area (2013) and elevation showed a negative relationship for all basins except Hunza, Shigar, and Shyok. The correlation between the expansion rate of lakes and elevation was on the positive side for Swat, Gilgit, Shigar, and Shingo basins—a situation that may be attributed to the variable altitudinal pattern of temperature and precipitation. In order to explore such diverse patterns of lake behavior and relationship with influential factors in the HKH, detailed studies based on using high resolution image data coupled with in situ information are a prerequisite. Although an increase in lake area observed below 3500 m would be favorable for water resource management, but could be alarming in context of glacial flood hazards that need to be monitored critically on a long-term basis.

On July 8, 1998, the deadliest glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) in Central Asia for at least the last 100 years occurred in the Shakhimardan catchment, Kyrgyzstan. Most of the >100 victims were, however, killed in the Uzbek enclave of Shakhimardan, i.e. in the downstream part of this transboundary catchment. No warnings were issued between the two countries. In addition, due to political tensions, access to the site was impossible and a detailed assessment of the disaster could not be realized until now. Using remote sensing, we show that the lake at the origin of the “Shakhimardan event” appeared in the 1960s and drained periodically, without, however, causing damage to downstream areas before it eventually disappeared in the late 1980s. Based on post-event videos, we conclude that the GLOF-producing depression was again filled with a lake, estimated at 20 ± 1.2 × 103 m2 in area, before the disaster. The lake burst was likely driven by the rapidly rising air temperatures and the melting of snow/ice in late June and early July. The GLOF first travelled as a debris flow for 17 km, then continued as a debris flood in the increasingly flatter channel for another 20 km. Interestingly, the mean weighted channel angle in the areas of erosion was extremely low at 6.7°. The flood continued further downstream for ~100 km from its source. Today, 32 lakes (total area ~300 × 103 m2 in 2018) exist in the catchment, with several of the larger lakes (>5 × 103 m2) showing signs of instability. We therefore call for a systematic monitoring of environments like the Shakhimardan catchment, as well as for the installation of early warning systems at critical sites, with exchange of data between the Kyrgyz and Uzbek disaster risk management units, so as to mitigate existing and evolving GLOF risks.

The 16th of June 1818, the failure of the Giétro glacier in the Swiss Alps provoked an outburst flood that devastated the Bagnes valley, causing 34 deaths and major damages to buildings, road system, hydraulic infrastructures and crops. This disaster had a major impact on the economy of the valley and created a great movement of solidarity. It remains today a well-known historical natural disaster. In order to reconstruct the course of the wave and to map the flood, we used an interdisciplinary approach by crossing historical and geomorphological data. We first compiled and mapped the large number of historical data available in the local and state archives. These data were then completed by geomorphological observations made on the field and on numerical documents. The resulting map presents the spatial extent of the flood and water depths. This article shows the validity of interdisciplinary approaches for reconstructing past natural disasters.

Glacial lakes mapping using satellite remote sensing data are important for studying the effects of climate change as well as for the mitigation and risk assessment of a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). The 3U cubesat constellation of Planet Labs offers the capability of imaging the whole Earth landmass everyday at 3&ndash, 4 m spatial resolution. The higher spatial, as well as temporal resolution of PlanetScope imagery in comparison with Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2, makes it a valuable data source for monitoring the glacial lakes. Therefore, this paper explores the potential of the PlanetScope imagery for glacial lakes mapping with a focus on the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKKH) region. Though the revisit time of the PlanetScope imagery is short, courtesy of 130+ small satellites, this imagery contains only four bands and the imaging sensors in these small satellites exhibit varying spectral responses as well as lower dynamic range. Furthermore, the presence of cast shadows in the mountainous regions and varying spectral signature of the water pixels due to differences in composition, turbidity and depth makes it challenging to automatically and reliably extract surface water in PlanetScope imagery. Keeping in view these challenges, this work uses state of the art deep learning models for pixel-wise classification of PlanetScope imagery into the water and background pixels and compares the results with Random Forest and Support Vector Machine classifiers. The deep learning model is based on the popular U-Net architecture. We evaluate U-Net architecture similar to the original U-Net as well as a U-Net with a pre-trained EfficientNet backbone. In order to train the deep neural network, ground truth data are generated by manual digitization of the surface water in PlanetScope imagery with the aid of Very High Resolution Satellite (VHRS) imagery. The created dataset consists of more than 5000 water bodies having an area of approx. 71km2 in eight different sites in the HKKH region. The evaluation of the test data show that the U-Net with EfficientNet backbone achieved the highest F1 Score of 0.936. A visual comparison with the existing glacial lake inventories is then performed over the Baltoro glacier in the Karakoram range. The results show that the deep learning model detected significantly more lakes than the existing inventories, which have been derived from Landsat OLI imagery. The trained model is further evaluated on the time series PlanetScope imagery of two glacial lakes, which have resulted in an outburst flood. The output of the U-Net is also compared with the GLakeMap data. The results show that the higher spatial and temporal resolution of PlanetScope imagery is a significant advantage in the context of glacial lakes mapping and monitoring.

Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5 +3.7 / −3.7 × 10 6 m 3 (posterior mean and 95% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600 +2,000 / −1,800 m 3 ⋅s −1 . Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (∼14,500 m 3 ⋅s −1 ) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters.

Remote seismic observations of a glacial lake outburst flood highlight potential for improving early warning systems., Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a substantial hazard for downstream communities in vulnerable regions, yet unpredictable triggers and remote source locations make GLOF dynamics difficult to measure and quantify. Here, we revisit a destructive GLOF that occurred in Bhutan in 1994 and apply cross-correlation–based seismic analyses to track the evolution of the GLOF remotely (~100 kilometers from the source region). We use the seismic observations along with eyewitness reports and a downstream gauge station to constrain a numerical flood model and then assess geomorphic change and current state of the unstable lakes via satellite imagery. Coherent seismic energy is evident from 1 to 5 hertz beginning approximately 5 hours before the flood impacted Punakha village, which originated at the source lake and advanced down the valley during the GLOF duration. Our analysis highlights potential benefits of using real-time seismic monitoring to improve early warning systems.

Hydrological characteristics of the Cold-arid trans-Himalayan region is least known due to lack of studies in the region. Hydrology of a region having around 60 mm of mean annual precipitation can be thought as a paradox. But the area have numerous glaciers constituting more than 75% of the Indian glacier resource and significant snow cover area mainly constrained over the top of the mountain range. These glaciers and snow sustain the livelihood of immediate lowland of arid valley bottom and contribute to the flow of Indus and its major tributaries like Shyok and Zanskar. These big rivers sustain livelihood of millions further downstream. Along with snow and glaciers; large extent of permafrost areas makes the hydrology of the cold-arid regions unique as compared to other regions of Indian Himalaya. Present study focus on the Ladakh range of the cold-arid system. Small glaciers with

Outburst floods can have disastrous impacts on people, and are an important driving force in landscape change and have been studied widely on Earth. In China, although outburst floods have occurred frequently, there has been relatively little systematic investigation of the controlling factor. Here, we review outburst floods in China in terms of the characteristics, distribution, causes of dams and outburst floods. In terms of natural dams, landslides accounted for the majority (287 cases), followed by moraine dams (33 cases), which are mainly found on and around the Tibetan Plateau, and although other types (such as glacier and volcanic dams) were historically rare, many examples may be preserved in the geological record. In addition, there have been thousands of outburst floods from artificial-constructed dams, the majority of which were from small earth dams. The largest reliably recorded peak discharge for an outburst flood was 1.24 × 105 m3/s, which occurred in Yigong, Tibet. The peak discharge of the 1975 Banqiao collapse was 7.9 × 104 m3/s; the largest outburst flood of a man-made dam. Our recent investigations on the Yarlung Tsangpo in Southeast Tibet have identified gravel deposits that probably record megafloods and offer great potential for paleoflood analysis.

Near the Pleistocene Termination, a glacier-dammed lake in central British Columbia suddenly drained to the south along the Fraser River valley. Floodwater travelled 330 km down the valley to Hope, British Columbia, and from there to the west into the Salish Sea near Vancouver. The flood was caused by the failure of an ice dam formed by the terminus of glaciers flowing from the central Coast Mountains across the British Columbia Interior Plateau. The ice dam impounded several hundred cubic kilometres of water to a maximum elevation of about 810 m asl (above sea level); at its maximum, the lake at the ice dam was over 250 m deep. Geomorphic and sedimentary evidence for the flood includes streamlined boulder-strewn bars, gravel dune fields, and terraces sloping up Fraser and lowermost Thompson valleys, opposite the present direction of river flow. The gravel bars and flood terraces are underlain by sheets of massive to poorly sorted gravel containing large boulders and rip-up clasts of silt and till. Shortly after the flood, a landslide near the northern margin of the former glacier dam impounded water to an elevation of about 550 m asl. This lake emptied due to overflow and incision of the landslide dam. The outburst flood from glacial Lake Fraser and the subsequent draining of the landslide-dammed lake deeply incised the older sediment fill in Fraser Valley and transported much of this sediment into the proto-Salish Sea west of Vancouver, British Columbia and Bellingham, Washington. TCN ages on flood-transported boulders at three localities along the flood path agree with radiocarbon ages on inferred flood layers in ODP cores collected from Saanich Inlet, a fiord on southern Vancouver Island, 80 km south-southwest of Vancouver.

Supraglacial lakes greatly affect the rate of glacier ablation and a potentially dangerous (GLOF – Glacier lake outburst flood) proglacial lake often forms through their development. The main part of the paper recapitulates the factors of the formation and drainage of supraglacial lakes, as well as the mechanisms of their development through a review of the scientific literature. In total there are five factors of the formation of supraglacial lakes and four factors (three of them alternative to one another) of the drainage. Three factors delimit the maximum extent of the emergence of supraglacial lakes, two of them determine the detailed distribution of localities suitable for hosting supraglacial lakes. The circumstances leading to the drainage mainly reflect the decisive role played by englacial voids. According to the current degree of scientific knowledge there are no factors controlling the development of supraglacial lakes. The complete process of the expansion of a supraglacial lake may be viewed as a positive feedback loop consisting of three major mechanisms. In the final part all of the factors are provided with quantitative intervals responding to the respective probability scales, which enable a relatively objective assessment of the probabilities of formation/drainage of supraglacial lakes. The most frequent application is the case of the assessment of the probability of the formation of a large supraglacial lake, due to its likely development into a proglacial lake.

Immense late Wisconsin floods from glacial Lake Missoula drowned the Wenatchee reach of Washington's Columbia valley by different routes. The earliest debacles, nearly 19,000 cal yr BP, raged 335 m deep down the Columbia and built high Pangborn bar at Wenatchee. As advancing ice blocked the northwest of Columbia valley, several giant floods descended Moses Coulee and backflooded up the Columbia past Wenatchee. Ice then blocked Moses Coulee, and Grand Coulee to Quincy basin became the westmost floodway. From Quincy basin many Missoula floods backflowed 50 km upvalley to Wenatchee 18,000 to 15,500 years ago. Receding ice dammed glacial Lake Columbia centuries more—till it burst about 15,000 years ago. After Glacier Peak ashfall about 13,600 years ago, smaller great flood(s) swept down the Columbia from glacial Lake Kootenay in British Columbia. The East Wenatchee cache of huge fluted Clovis points had been laid atop Pangborn bar after the Glacier Peak ashfall, then buried by loess. Clovis people came five and a half millennia after the early gigantic Missoula floods, two and a half millennia after the last small Missoula flood, and two millennia after the glacial Lake Columbia flood. People likely saw outburst flood(s) from glacial Lake Kootenay.

Even though Patagonia is ideally located to study climate of the southern mid-latitudes, many questions on the late Quaternary climate evolution remain unresolved. The timing of maximum glacier extent is still uncertain in vast areas, and the postglacial evolution of the Southern Westerly Wind Belt (SWWB) remains highly debated. Here, we study the sedimentary infill of a glacigenic lake (Lago Castor; 45.6°S, 71.8°W) located at the leeside of the Andes in Chilean Patagonia to i) reconstruct the deglacial evolution of the eastern flank of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS), and ii) discuss postglacial changes in wind strength at a critical location where westerly wind records are critically lacking. A dense grid of high-resolution reflection-seismic data was used to reconstruct the large-scale infill history of the lake, and a radiocarbon dated sediment core penetrating all lacustrine seismic units, was retrieved. Results indicate that the deglaciation of the lake basin and its catchment occurred no later than ∼28 cal kyr BP (i.e. an early LGM), but possibly even already after MIS 4. Afterwards, the Lago Castor area was covered by a large proglacial lake that drained – possibly through an outburst flood – when the PIS outlet glaciers retreated to a critical location. Subsequently, very dry conditions caused the lake to desiccate, as evidenced by an unconformity visible on the seismic profiles and in the sediment core. This dry period likely resulted from the increased orographic effect of the PIS-covered Andes, accompanied by weaker westerlies. From ∼20 kyr BP onwards, the combination of a shrinking PIS and a southward shift of the SWWB resulted in increased precipitation, which caused the lake level to rise. After ∼17 cal kyr BP, lake sedimentation was more directly influenced by the southern westerlies, with the formation of sediment drifts resulting from strong bottom current during periods of intense westerly winds. Our results suggest a progressive increase in wind strength at 46°S from 11.2 to 4.5 cal kyr BP, which supports the hypothesis that the SWWB broadened during the early and middle Holocene.

Unlike glaciers in other parts of the world, Karakoram glaciers seem to be stable or gaining in mass in response to global climate change, a phenomenon known as ‘the Karakoram anomaly’. Many of the glaciers experience irregular, frequent, and sudden advances (surges) that pose an increasing threat of ice dam lake formation and subsequent outburst flooding throughout the region. In this study, we document 179 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that occurred from 1533 to 2020 in five major valleys. Sixty-four of the events took place after 1970, and 37 of these had remote sensing imagery that covered the GLOF formation to breaching sequence. Thirty-six glaciers were associated with GLOFS due to ice-front advance building ice barriers in rivers. The Kayger and Khurdopin glaciers are the most hazardous examples, being responsible for 31.8% of major GLOFs in the entire Karakoram. Using a cross-correlation feature-tracking technique on remote sensing imagery, we analyzed ten surge glaciers and documented six surge events from 1990 to 2019. Results show periodic surge cycles for the Khurdopin, Kyager, Shishper, and Chilinji glaciers of c. 15–20 years, with a surge velocity in the mid-2010s higher than that of the late 1990s for all studied glaciers. The higher velocity of a glacier increases the risk of flooding downstream of the terminus because the transfer of a huge ice mass towards the terminus during the surge is a key factor for formation and reformation of series of ice-dammed lakes, thus determining the magnitude and frequency of outburst flood events. The response of Karakorum glaciers to global warming and climate forcing, comprising a continuum of glacier mass gain, ice thinning and ice advance, has resulted in lake formation and ice dam failures. We predict the frequency of GLOFs will increase in the future. These findings support the increasing anomalous behavior of glaciers in the Karakoram region. To synthesize the detailed observations, a conceptual model is presented of ice-dammed lake formation and GLOF initiation in response to glacier surging.

Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), especially those in the Arctic, can deliver exceptionally high volumes of sediment and solutes to fjords and shallow-marine settings, in comparison to typical seasonal river flows. These sediments and solutes strongly affect coastal geomorphology and aquatic ecosystems, yet are rarely observed. In this study, we have quantified the short-term geomorphological response of the most distal part of the Zackenberg River (northeast Greenland), where it enters Young Sund, to a glacier lake outburst flood that occurred on August 6th 2017. The main aims were to: (1) quantify riverbank and floodplain geomorphology changes that occurred as a consequence of the flood; (2) analyse the spatial patterns of those geomorphological changes and suggest the key controls on them. We used a time-series of very high-resolution UAV-generated images taken on the 5th, 6th, and 8th of August 2017, which enabled us to compare pre- and post-flood fluvial geomorphology. The GLOF induced intense and widespread geomorphological changes, which was surprising because several floods of a similar magnitude have occurred along this river. Approximately 30% of the area of interest experienced changes that were larger than the minimum level of detection (0.15 m). Lateral erosion reached almost 10 m in some places. The total volume loss from bank erosion was at least 26,561 m3 (+/− 14%), whereas the deposition was at least 7745 m3 (+/− 39%). Such an intensive geomorphological response resulted from a combination of factors; namely: (1) bank geometry; (2) composition of bank material; (3) time of occurrence of the event; (4) presence of permafrost; (6) channel geometry; and (7) multitude and diversity of geomorphological processes. We speculate the severity of the geomorphological impact relative to that from previous floods could have been due to warming air temperatures that provided sediment from thawed permafrost, and to an aggrading delta that raised the river base level. Overall, we contend that climate warming will not only make outburst floods from glaciers more likely but that those floods will achieve more geomorphological work with mechanical erosion of permafrost. Erosion and gravitational failures during future flood events will perhaps become even more widespread and intense.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are one of the most destructive natural disasters. Understanding GLOF evolution, and their impacts, plays a fundamental role in GLOF hazard assessment and risk management. Reconstructing historical GLOFs is an important exercise because detailed case studies of such glacial hazards are rare, which hinders the capacity of glacial hazard practitioners to learn from these events. In this study, we reconstruct a historical GLOF from moraine-dammed Chongbaxia Tsho (89.745°E, 28.211°N) in the Eastern Himalaya, which is a unique case study because the outburst flood cascaded into two further lakes downstream. We employ a combination of i) multi-source and multi-temporal satellite imagery, ii) field investigation (including an unmanned aerial vehicle survey), iii) numerical dam breach and hydrodynamic modelling and, iv) qualitative and quantitative cryospheric and meteorological analysis, to investigate the evolution of the GLOF hazard, simulate moraine dam failure and GLOF propagation, and explore the role that long- and short-term climate trends played in providing the conditioning factors for the outburst. Chongbaxia Tsho expanded rapidly between 1987 until 2001 in response to glacier recession most likely caused by a regional warming trend of +0.37 °C per decade. Based on satellite image analysis we refine the outburst date to be 6 August 2001, instead of 6 August 2000, as previously reported, and attribute an ice avalanche into the glacial lake originating from the receding parent glacier as the most likely trigger for moraine dam failure. Through DEM differencing and lake level decrease, we estimate that a total water volume of 27.1 ± 1.6 × 106 m3 was released from the lake during the event, and using dam breach modelling we estimate that the peak discharge at the breach was >6600 m3 s−1. The GLOF flowed through downstream Chongbamang Tsho and Chongbayong Tsho, both of which served to attenuate the GLOF and reduce downstream losses; the latter stored an estimated 96% of the flood volume. Precipitation totals in the weeks preceding the GLOF exceeded the historical mean by up to 40%, and may have contributed to instability of the parent glacier, and generation of an ice avalanche with enough impact energy to cause lake water to overtop the moraine dam and initiate breach development. A future GLOF from Chongbaxia Tsho cannot be ruled out, but more field data, including detailed lake bathymetry, and information pertaining to the sedimentological and geotechnical characteristics of the moraine dam, are required for a more robust parameterization of a predictive GLOF model and quantification of the hazard posed by a future GLOF.

In Kyrgyzstan, outburst flood disasters from glacial lakes are increasing. An example is the sudden drainage on 8 August 2019 of the Toguz-Bulak glacial lake in the Tosor river basin of the northern Tien Shan region. In this study, we used remote sensing and field surveys to examine the reasons for the outburst. We found that the lake area changed from 0.021 km&sup2, to 0.002 km2 due to the outburst, in which most of the initial 130,000 m3 of water discharged within four hours. In examining the longer-term behavior of this lake, we found that from 2010 through 2019, it appears in June and disappears in September every year. Its maximum area occurs in late July and early August. With the expansion of the lake basin between 2010 and 2019, the lake also increased greatly in size, particularly so in the three years before the outburst, linked to high summer temperatures and the resulting higher inflow of glacier meltwater, finally leading to the sudden drainage in 2019. Before this outburst, a 2-m high moraine dam retained the lake. Continuously inflowing meltwater and the related increasing pressure by the lake water mass eventually broke the moraine dam. Satellite radar interferometry revealed active displacement fringes in the lake basin and moraine dam due to the melting and subsidence of buried ice. An analysis using digital elevation models from 1964 and 2010 also confirms the surface lowering in the lake basin by up to 8.5 m and on the moraine dam by 2 m. Such lowering of the proglacial moraine complex destabilized the moraine dam.

Results from geomorphological, sedimentological and geochronological analyses, together with micropaleontological and mineralogical characteristics of lacustrine deposits in five locations within the Kuray intermountain depression, southeast Altai, mountains of south Siberia, support the thesis of repeated formations of ice-dammed lakes during MIS-2 and their draining by high energy floods. Our data suggest that the timing of one of the last cataclysmic draining events in the area can be estimated by an Optically-Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) age of 19.0 ± 1.1 ka for a sandy layer at the top of the diluvial (i.e. large flood) deposit, revealed in a sedimentary sequence of the 1570 m a.s.l. strandline – one of the lowest preserved strandlines in the western part of the basin. New OSL and radiocarbon ages, augmenting previously published dates, indicate that the last lake to occupy the Kuray depression occurred around 19–16 ka with a depth of at least 170 m in the central part of the basin and to a depth of no less than 220 m near the glacier dam. Lacustrine deposits are represented by two horizons of sandy clays separated by interlayers of mixed-size sands. The mineralogical data, supported by analysis of sedimentological and micropaleontological records, indicate accumulation of a lower lacustrine horizon in a deeper reservoir. Finding of Leucocythere sp.1, Leucocythere sp.2, and Leucocythere dorsotuberosa ostracod species in lacustrine deposits characterizes these reservoirs as periglacial freshwater cold and deep lakes. The presence of well-crystallized mica and chlorite in lacustrine silts and clays from the lower lacustrine horizon indicates cold, dry conditions at the time of their formation, as well as a predominance of physical weathering of rocks within the denudation area. After an abrupt dropping of the lake level around 16 ka, determined from OSL dating, the lake never recovered its former depth. The available radiocarbon ages for organic material in subaerial deposits within the study area and the new OSL ages suggest that the last ice-dammed lake in the Kuray basin was drained between ~16.7 and 9.9 ka. The presence of this lake might explain the absence of late Paleolithic surface finds within the basin that remained generally unsuitable for human habitation until its final drying. The last outburst flood passed along the Chuya and Katun river valleys, which had been already carved by older cataclysmic floods, but did not significantly affect the topography downstream of the Kuray-Chuya intermountain depressions. We numerically simulated the draining of a palaeolake in the Kuray basin with the water level 1650 m a.s.l. (maximal depth about 220 m near the dam) with different scenarios of breaching the ice dam. In contrast to a relatively gradual breach of the ice dam due to thermal erosion, an instantaneous dam break due to structural failure can cause an outburst flood with a peak discharge of around 2 × 106 m3 s−1. The high speeds of the water flow, 1.9–5.6 m s−1, with the maximum Froude numbers of 0.06–0.22, and peak Shields values of 0.03–0.25 indicate competence to mobilize gravel. Generally, the simulated flow remained subcritical, suggesting that bedforms developed under supercritical flows, such as antidunes, could not have developed, although the development of dunes cannot be precluded. Our data also contribute to the issue of correlating the low lake strandlines in the Kuray basin with the landforms associated with cataclysmic outburst floods.

Melting glaciers have a direct contribution to sea level rise, runoff and glacier lake outburst flood disasters. Therefore, accurate estimations of glacier mass balances with high spatial (large region) and temporal (annual, seasonal) resolutions are very important. However, the estimation of glacial mass balances in mountainous regions is usually hampered by remoteness and the lack of high-precision topographic data for most mountain ranges. This study presents a novel method for estimating mass changes in mountain glaciers using InSAR data. We utilised observations of glacier surface deformation to derive changes in thickness, and then calculated the mass change. This method can accurately estimate short-term mass changes. We apply this method to the Koxkar glacier in the Tien Shan Mountain Range in China and successfully estimate the seasonal mass change. Using theoretical error and statistical error analysis, we determined that the accuracy of this method is much better than other geodetic methods. We analyse the spatial characteristics of the mass changes in the ablation zone for the first time. The results show considerable spatial and seasonal variability, which were mainly from ablation in the summer, with the greatest amount of glacial ablation reaching up to − 3872 mm water equivalent (w.e.), and from accumulation in the winter.

Lakes are a characteristic feature of glacial landscapes. They are found in the vicinity of current or past glaciers and ice sheets, in high alpine cirques, inner-alpine valleys as well as lowlands. In recent years, new lakes have emerged in glacier forefields and surface areas and volumes of many proglacial lakes are reported to be growing in many mountain areas due to climate-induced glacier melt. Some proglacial lakes have attracted public and scientific attention due to disastrous events such as lake outburst floods or increasing hazard potential and risk downstream. Proglacial lake formation is the result of glacier retreat exposing a topographic bedrock depression or space behind a sediment dam that inhibits runoff and provokes storage of water and sediment. Proglacial lakes thus are first-order sediment sinks and interrupt the sediment cascade and sediment transfer dynamics from uplands to lowlands. They often are of societal relevance in mountain areas ranging from water supply to energy production, hazard and risk, as well as tourism issues. This review summarises the role of proglacial lakes for geomorphic systems in high mountain environments. We start with a look at the basic terminology and formation principles, followed by an overview of global lake distribution patterns. The geomorphologic significance of proglacial lakes is discussed with respect to the current state of knowledge. Recent developments that allow a modelling of potential future lakes in mountain areas, once the glacier melt, are presented and discussed in the light of natural hazards and risks, as well as socio-economic dimensions of proglacial lake formation.