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Glacially- and magmatically-derived seismic events have been noted to heavily overlap in characteristics, thus there exists the potential for false-alarms or missed warnings at ice-covered volcanoes. Here we present the first study to specifically target icequakes at an ice-covered volcano in Southern Chile. Two months of broadband seismic data collected at Llaima volcano in 2015 were analyzed in order to quantify, characterize, and locate glacially-derived seismic events at one of the most active ice-covered volcanoes in the region. We find over 1,000 repeating seismic events across 11 families, the largest of which contains 397 events. Approximate locations and characteristics of the largest families lead us to conclude that these events were derived from persistent stick-slip motion along the ice-rock interface at the base of a glacier near the volcano summit. These results have implications for future seismic monitoring at Llaima volcano and other ice-covered active volcanoes in the region.

Many attempts for deterministic forecasting of eruptions and landslides have been performed using the material Failure Forecast Method (FFM). This method consists in adjusting an empirical power law on precursory patterns of seismicity or deformation. Until now, most of the studies have presented hindsight forecasts based on complete time series of precursors and do not evaluate the ability of the method for carrying out real-time forecasting with partial precursory sequences. In this study, we present a rigorous approach of the FFM designed for real-time applications on volcano-seismic precursors. We use a Bayesian approach based on the FFM theory and an automatic classification of seismic events. The probability distributions of the data deduced from the performance of this classification are used as input. As output, it provides the probability of the forecast time at each observation time before the eruption. The spread of the a posteriori probability density function of the prediction time and its stability with respect to the observation time are used as criteria to evaluate the reliability of the forecast. We test the method on precursory accelerations of long-period seismicity prior to vulcanian explosions at Volcan de Colima (Mexico). For explosions preceded by a single phase of seismic acceleration, we obtain accurate and reliable forecasts using approximately 80% of the whole precursory sequence. It is, however, more difficult to apply the method to multiple acceleration patterns.

International audience The link between seismicity and degassing is investigated during the VEI 4 eruptions of Merapi volcano (Indonesia) in October and in early November 2010. Seismicity comprised a large number and variety of earthquakes including Volcano-Tectonic events, a sustained period of Long Period Seismicity (LPS), i.e., Long-Period events (LP), Very Long Period events (VLP) and tremor. LPS seismicity is ascribed to the excitation of fluid-filled cavity resonance and inertial displacement of fluids and magma. We investigate here LPS that occurred between 17 October and 4 November 2010 to obtain insights into the volcano eruption processes which preceded the paroxysmal phase of the eruption on 4-5 November. We proceed to the moment tensor inversion of a well-recorded large VLP event during the intrusion phase on 17 October 2010, i.e., before the first explosion on 26 October. By using two simplified models (crack and pipe), we find a shallow source for this VLP event at about 1 km to the south of the summit and less than 1 km below the surface. We analyze more than 90 LP events that occurred during the multi-phase eruption (29 October-4 November). We show that most of them have a dominant frequency in the range 0.2-4 Hz. We could locate 48 of those LP events; at least 3 clusters of LP events occurred successively. We interpret these observations as generated by different fluid-filled containers in the summit area that were excited while magma rose. We also observe significant variations of the complex frequency during the course of the eruption. We discuss these changes in terms of a variable ratio of fluid to solid densities and/or by possible conduit geometry change and/or permeability of the conduit or the edifice and/or by resonance of different fluid-containers during the release of more than 0.4 Tg of SO2 and large but unknown masses of other volcanic gases. Finally, we also discuss how the major explosions of the eruption were possibly triggered by passing waves resulting from regional tectonic earthquakes on 3 and 4 November.

International audience; Merapi volcano (Indonesia) is one of the most active and hazardous volcanoes in the world. It is known for frequent small to moderate eruptions, pyroclastic flows produced by lava dome collapse, and the large population settled on and around the flanks of the volcano that is at risk. Its usual behaviour for the last decades abruptly changed in late October and early November 2010, when the volcano produced its largest and most explosive eruptions in more than a century, displacing a third of a million people, and claiming nearly 400 lives. Despite the challenges involved in forecasting this 'hundred year eruption', we show that the magnitude of precursory signals (seismicity, ground deformation, gas emissions) were proportional to the large size and intensity of the eruption. In addition and for the first time, near-real-time satellite radar imagery played an equal role with seismic, geodetic, and gas observations in monitoring eruptive activity during a major volcanic crisis. The Indonesian Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) issued timely forecasts of the magnitude of the eruption phases, saving 10,000-20,000 lives. In addition to reporting on aspects of the crisis management, we report the first synthesis of scientific observations of the eruption. Our monitoring and petrologic data show that the 2010 eruption was fed by rapid ascent of magma from depths ranging from 5 to 30 km. Magma reached the surface with variable gas content resulting in alternating explosive and rapid effusive eruptions, and released a total of ~ 0.44 Tg of SO2. The eruptive behaviour seems also related to the seismicity along a tectonic fault more than 40 km from the volcano, highlighting both the complex stress pattern of the Merapi region of Java and the role of magmatic pressurization in activating regional faults. We suggest a dynamic triggering of the main explosions on 3 and 4 November by the passing seismic waves generated by regional earthquakes on these days.