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The goal of this study is in improvement of the short-term prediction of the polar motion in the context of state-space modeling suitable for the Kalman filter operations, such as the Kalman Earth Orientation Filter (KEOF) at Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Accurate analysis of precision ranges to the Moon have provided several tests of gravitational theory: the equivalence principle, geodetic precession, PPN parameters beta and gamma, and the constancy of the gravitational constant G. Other possible tests include the inverse square law at 20,000 km length scales and the PPN parameter 1. The uncertainties of these tests have decreased as data accuracies have improved and data time span has lengthened. We are exploring the modeling improvements necessary to proceed from cm to mm range accuracies. Looking to future exploration, what characteristics are desired for the next generation of ranging devices, what fundamental questions can be investigated, and what are the challenges for modeling and data analysis?

An earlier study established the existence of globally coherent interannual fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In this paper, we pursue the origin and the structure of these fluctuations using an ensemble of experiments generated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, medium range forecast model version 9. In the control experiments, where the observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were used as the lower boundary conditions, the model captures the characteristic V-like structure in time-latitude plots of zonally averaged AAM, while experiments with climatological SSTs and those with either perpetual warm or cold ENSO conditions superimposed on the climatological SSTs failed to reproduce this structure. The numerical results indicate that these AAM structures are related to SST variations associated with transitions between different phases of the ENSO cycle and have both propagating and standing components. The largest zonal wind contribution from the levels studied (850, 500, and 200 hPa) is at 200 hPa, where the tropical convective outflow is the strongest. Composites of zonal wind and geopotential height show a clear relationship between the stages of the global AAM oscillation and the ENSO cycle. The strong similarity between the simulated and observed AAM series attests to the model's ability to realistically simulate the interannual response of the atmosphere to ENSO SST anomalies.

Conservation of angular momentum dictates that as the wind-driven axial atmospheric angular momentum changes, so will the length-of-day (LOD). In particular, as the strength of the seasonal zonal winds change, so should the strength of the seasonal LOD signals. Here, observed changes in the strengths of the annual and semiannual LOD signals during 1963-1991 are analyzed and shown to be both significantly correlated (at the 99% significance level) with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and to exhibit trends of comparable magnitude but opposite signs. This reported correlation between the SOI and changes in the amplitude of the seasonal LOD signals demonstrates a linkage between seasonal LOD (and hence seasonal zonal wind) variability and the El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Furthermore, this study suggests that observed variations in the amplitudes of the seasonal LOD signals can be used to study changes in the strengths of the seasonal atmospheric zonal winds on interannual to decadal and longer time scales.

This report highlights the goals, program of activities and accomplishments for IUGG/IAG SSG 5-143. Progress has been made on all fronts; main accomplishments include: (1) three major campaigns to measure rapid Earth orientation variations; (2) improvements in measurements including the increase in the frequency of the archived atmospheric angular momentum and the calculations of atmospheric torque; and (3) the encouragement of cooperative multi-disciplinary studies and organization of several scientific meetings.

ct given. This paper is a report given by an ad hoc working group on global climate change.

None given. Covers measurements of the polar ice sheet and resulting sea level changes.

Data from a worldwide Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking experiment have been used to determine variations in earth rotation (UT1-UTC) over a time period of three weeks. Kalman filtering and smoothing enabled changes in UT1-UTC over intervals of 2 to 24 hrs to be detected with the GPS data. Internal consistency checks and comparisons with other solutions from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and satellite laser ranging (SLR) indicate that the GPS UT1-UTC estimates are accurate to about 2 cm. Comparison of GPS-estimated variations in UT1-UTC with 2-hr time resolution over 4 days with predicted variations computed from diurnal and semidiurnal oceanic tidal contributions strongly suggests that the observed periodic sub-daily variations of about 0.1 msec are largely of tidal origin.

Recent improvements in geodetic data and practical meteorology have advanced research on fluctuations in the earth's rotation. The interpretation of these fluctuations is inextricably linked with studies of the dynamics of the earth-moon system and dynamical processes in the liquid metallic core of the earth (where the geomagnetic field originates), other parts of the earth's interior, and the hydrosphere and atmosphere. Fluctuations in the length of the day occurring on decadal time scales have implications for the topographay of the core-mantle boundary and the electrical, magnetic, ande other properties of the core and lower mantle. Investigations of more rapid fluctuations bear on meteorological studies of interannual, seasonal, and intraseasonal variations in the general circulation of the atmosphere and the response of the oceans to such variations.

Objectives and requirements for Earth rotation and reference frame studies in the 1990s are discussed. The objectives are to observe and understand interactions of air and water with the rotational dynamics of the Earth, the effects of the Earth's crust and mantle on the dynamics and excitation of Earth rotation variations over time scales of hours to centuries, and the effects of the Earth's core on the rotational dynamics and the excitation of Earth rotation variations over time scales of a year or longer. Another objective is to establish, refine and maintain terrestrial and celestrial reference frames. Requirements include improvements in observations and analysis, improvements in celestial and terrestrial reference frames and reference frame connections, and improved observations of crustal motion and mass redistribution on the Earth.

The main findings of a study of earth rotation changes on the longer interannual and decade range of time scales are summarized. The earth rotation data provide important constraints on models of the internal structure and dynamics of the core and lower mantle. Torques at the core-mantle interface are due to time varying fluid motions in the core. A torque of about 0.2 Hadley units is found in the axial component during the 1980 period.