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Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ∼2000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic compositions of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 759 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including glacier and ground ice (210); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (143); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and nonexperts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diverse archives and with climate-model-simulated fields. This is the first global-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple types of geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluating hydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis, model–data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k database is available for download at https://doi.org/10.25921/57j8-vs18 (Konecky and McKay, 2020) and is also accessible via the NOAA/WDS Paleo Data landing page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/29593 (last access: 30 July 2020).

Significance We present a high-resolution, replicated speleothem δ18O record from Klang Cave in southern Thailand that characterizes rainfall variation in NCIP over the past 2,700 y. This record reveals notable dry climate conditions during the current and past warm periods, similar to the observations in SCIP, which resemble enhanced El Niño-like conditions. Using a newly developed ITCZ shift index, we find a southward shifted ITCZ during the early MWP and the CWP. Our results suggest that detecting changes in rainfall due to anthropogenic forcing still remains indistinguishable from natural variability in the northern tropics., Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based 2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niño-like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports an overall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the early MWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remains indistinguishable from natural variability.

Correlation analysis is omnipresent in paleoclimatology, and often serves to support the proposed climatic interpretation of a given proxy record. However, this analysis presents several statistical challenges, each of which is sufficient to nullify the interpretation: the loss of degrees of freedom due to serial correlation, the test multiplicity problem in connection with a climate field, and the presence of age uncertainties. While these issues have long been known to statisticians, they are not widely appreciated by the wider paleoclimate community; yet they can have a first-order impact on scientific conclusions. Here we use three examples from the recent paleoclimate literature to highlight how spurious correlations affect the published interpretations of paleoclimate proxies, and suggest that future studies should address these issues to strengthen their conclusions. In some cases, correlations that were previously claimed to be significant are found insignificant, thereby challenging published interpretations. In other cases, minor adjustments can be made to safeguard against these concerns. Because such problems arise so commonly with paleoclimate data, we provide open-source code to address them. Ultimately, we conclude that statistics alone cannot ground-truth a proxy, and recommend establishing a mechanistic understanding of a proxy signal as a sounder basis for interpretation.

Carbon dioxide concentrations in caves are a primary driver of rates of carbonate dissolution and precipitation, exerting strong control on speleothem growth rate and geochemistry. Long-term cave monitoring studies in mid-latitude caves have observed seasonal variability in cave pCO2, whereby airflow is driven by temperature contrasts between the surface and subsurface. In tropical settings, where diurnal temperature cycles are larger than seasonal temperature cycles, it is has been proposed caves will ventilate on daily timescales, preventing cave pCO2 from increasing substantially above atmospheric pCO2. By contrast, the relatively small temperature difference between the surface and subsurface may be insufficient to drive complete ventilation of tropical caves. Here we present results of an 8-year cave monitoring study, including observations of cave pCO2 and carbonate chemistry, at Jinapsan Cave, Guam (13.4°N, 144.5°E). We find that cave pCO2 in Jinapsan Cave is both relatively high and strongly seasonal, with cave pCO2 ranging from 500 - 5000 ppm. The seasonality of cave pCO2 cannot be explained by temperature contrasts, instead we find evidence that seasonal trade winds drive cave ventilation and modulate cave pCO2. Calcite deposition rates at seven drip sites in Jinapsan Cave are shown to be seasonally variable, demonstrating that speleothem growth rates in Jinapsan Cave are strongly affected by seasonal variations in cave pCO2. These results highlight the importance that advection can have on cave ventilation processes and carbonate chemistry. Seasonality in carbonate chemistry and calcite deposition in this cave effect the interpretation of speleothem-based paleoclimate records. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Over the past decades, tropical stalagmite δ^(18)O records have provided valuable insight on glacial and interglacial hydrological variability and its relationship to a variety of natural climate forcings. The transition out of the penultimate glaciation (MIS 6) represents an important target for tropical hydroclimate reconstructions, yet relatively few such reconstructions resolve this transition. Particularly, comparisons between Termination 1 and 2 provide critical insight on the extent and influence of proposed climate mechanisms determined from paleorecords and model experiments spanning the recent deglaciation. Here we present a new compilation of western tropical Pacific hydrology spanning 0–160 ky BP, constructed from eleven different U/Th-dated stalagmite δ^(18)O records from Gunung Mulu National Park in northern Borneo. The reconstruction exhibits significant precessional power in phase with boreal fall insolation strength over the 0–160 ky BP period, identifying precessional insolation forcing as the dominant driver of hydroclimate variability in northern Borneo on orbital timescales. A comparison with a network of paleoclimate records from the circum-Pacific suggests the insolation sensitivity may arise from changes in the Walker circulation system. Distinct millennial-scale increases in stalagmite δ^(18)O, indicative of reduced regional convection, occur within glacial terminations and may reflect a response to shifts in inter-hemispheric temperature gradients. Our results imply that hydroclimate in this region is sensitive to external forcing, with a response dominated by large-scale temperature gradients.

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age., Knowledge of surface-ocean circulation in the Atlantic over the late Holocene is incomplete. Here, the authors show that Atlantic Ocean surface-circulation varied in concert with Western Hemisphere rainfall anomalies on centennial timescales and that this link played an essential role during the Little Ice Age.

Speleothem oxygen isotopes (δ18O) are often used to reconstruct past rainfall δ18O variability, and thereby hydroclimate changes, in many regions of the world. However, poor constraints on the karst hydrological processes that transform rainfall signals into cave dripwater add significant uncertainty to interpretations of speleothem-based reconstructions. Here we present several 6.5 year, biweekly dripwater δ18O time series from northern Borneo and compare them to local rainfall δ18O variability. We demonstrate that vadose water mixing is the primary rainfall-to-dripwater transformation process at our site, where dripwater δ18O reflects amount-weighted rainfall δ18O integrated over the previous 3–10 months. We document large interannual dripwater δ18O variability related to the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with amplitudes inversely correlated to dripwater residence times. According to a simple stalagmite forward model, asymmetrical ENSO extremes produce significant offsets in stalagmite δ18O time series given different dripwater residence times. Our study highlights the utility of generating multiyear, paired time series of rainfall and dripwater δ18O to aid interpretations of stalagmite δ18O reconstructions.

Observations and reconstructions of decadal-scale climate variability are necessary to place predictions of future global climate change into temporal context (Goddard et al., 2012). This is especially true for decadal-scale climate variability that originates in the Pacific Ocean (Deser et al., 2004; Dong and Lu, 2013). We focus here on the western tropical Pacific (Solomon Islands; ~ 9.5° S, ~ 160° E), a region directly influenced by: the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP), the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC), and the Hadley Circulation. We calibrate δ18O variations in a fast growing stalagmite to local rainfall amount and produce a 600 yr record of rainfall variability from the zonally oriented, tropical portion of the SPCZ. We present evidence for large (~ 1.5 m), persistent and decade(s)-long shifts in total annual rainfall amount in the Solomon Islands since 1416 ± 5 CE. The timing of the decadal changes in rainfall inferred from the 20th century portion of the stalagmite δ18O record coincide with previously identified decadal shifts in Pacific ocean-atmosphere behavior (Clement et al., 2011; Deser et al., 2004). The 600 yr Solomons stalagmite δ18O record indicates that decadal oscillations in rainfall are a robust characteristic of SPCZ-related climate variability, which has important implications to water resource management in this region.

Pacifi c decadal variability (PDV) causes widespread, persistent fl uctuations that affect climate, water resources, and fi sheries throughout the Pacifi c basin, yet the magnitude, frequency, and causes of PDV remain poorly constrained. Here we present an absolutely dated, subannually resolved, 446 yr stable oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) cave record of rainfall variability in Vanuatu (southern Pacifi c Ocean), a location that has a climate heavily infl uenced by the South Pacifi c Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The δ 18 O-based proxy rainfall record is dominated by changes in stalagmite δ 18 O that are large (~1‰), quasi-periodic (~50 yr period), and generally abrupt (within 5‐10 yr). These isotopic changes imply abrupt rainfall changes of as much as ~1.8 m per wet season, changes that can be ~2.5◊ larger than the 1976 C.E. shift in rainfall amount associated with a PDV phase switch. The Vanuatu record also shares little commonality with previously documented changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone during the Little Ice Age or solar forcing. We conclude that multidecadal SPCZ variability is likely of an endogenous nature. Large, spontaneous, and low-frequency changes in SPCZ rainfall during the past 500 yr have important implications for the relative magnitude of natural PDV possible in the coming century.

We investigate stalagmite trace metal ratios and carbon isotopic composition (δ^(13)C) as potential paleoclimate proxies by comparing cave dripwaters, stalagmites, and bedrock composition from Gunung Mulu and Gunung Buda National Parks in northern Borneo, a tropical rainforest karst site. Three year long, biweekly time series of dripwater Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and δ^(13)C from several drips at our site are not correlated with rainfall variability, indicative of a relatively weak relationship between hydroclimate and dripwater geochemistry at our site. However, combining all of the dripwater geochemical data gathered over four field trips to our site (N > 300 samples), we find that drips with highly variable Mg[Sr]/Ca have relatively invariable δ^(18)O values close to the mean. We hypothesize that increased residence times translate into reduced variance in dripwater δ^(18)O through mixing in the epikarst as well as increased Mg[Sr]/Ca values through increased calcite precipitation in the epikarst. Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and δ^(13)C time series from three overlapping stalagmites that grew over the last 27 kyrs are characterized by strong centennial-scale variations, and bear little resemblance to previously published, well-reproduced δ^(18)O time series from the same stalagmites. The only shared signal among the three stalagmites' geochemical time series is a relative decrease of 1‰ in δ^(13)C from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, consistent with a transition from savannah (C4) to rainforest (C3) conditions documented in nearby records. Taken together, our study indicates that stalagmite Mg[Sr]/Ca ratios are poor indicators of hydroclimate conditions at our site, while stalagmite δ^(13)C exhibits some reproducible signals on glacial-interglacial timescales.

Recent investigations of submillennial paleoceanographic variability have attempted to resolve high-frequency climate signals such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using the population statistics of individual planktic foraminiferal δ18O analyses. This approach is complicated by the relatively short lifespan of individual foraminifers (~2–4 weeks) compared to the time represented by a typical marine sediment sample (~decades to millennia). Here, we investigate the uncertainty associated with individual foraminiferal analyses (IFA) through simulations on forward modeled δ18Ocarbonate. First, focusing on the Nino3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a bootstrap Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to constrain the uncertainty on IFA-statistics. Subsequently, to test the sensitivity of IFA to changes in seasonal cycle amplitude, ENSO amplitude, and ENSO frequency, synthetic time series of δ18Ocarbonate with differing variability are constructed and tested with our algorithm. The probabilities of the IFA technique in detecting changes in ENSO amplitude and seasonal cycle amplitude (or a combination of both) for the surface ocean and thermocline at different locations in the tropical Pacific are quantified. We find that the uncertainty in the standard deviation is smaller than the range, that the IFA-signal is insensitive to ENSO frequency, and at certain locations the seasonal cycle may dominate ENSO. IFA sensitivity towards ENSO is highest at the central equatorial Pacific surface ocean and the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) thermocline whereas sensitivity towards the seasonal cycle is highest at the EEP surface ocean. Our results suggest that rigorous uncertainty quantification should become standard practice for accurately interpreting IFA-data.

We present bulk average Sr and Mg data for 13 speleothems from different locations in the western equatorial Pacific (Guam, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu). These data plot on a single straight line in a graph of ln(Sr/Ca) vs ln(Mg/Ca) with a slope of ~ 0.9. A 22,000 year record of Sr and Mg in one of these samples from Guam also plots with the same slope, suggesting that the process partitioning Mg and Sr within the Guam speleothem is the same as the one that partitions Mg and Sr between the different Pacific speleothems. We rule out temperature, growth rate, detrital phases, and sea-spray as likely mechanisms for this correlation. We construct mathematical models of limestone diagenesis and show that this cannot explain the slope of the correlation. Our favoured explanation for the correlation is calcite/water interaction in the form of prior calcite precipitation (PCP) and/or incongruent calcite dissolution (ICD). We present a formal mathematical model of PCP and prove that the slope of a graph of ln(Sr/Ca) and ln(Mg/Ca) is given by Kd Sr − 1 Kd Mg − 1 . A similar equation is derived for ICD in a companion paper ( Sinclair, 2011 ). Using published values for KdSr and KdMg, this slope is calculated to be ~ 0.88, in excellent agreement with our observations. Because the slope is independent of solution and host-limestone composition it can be used to diagnose calcite–water interaction in individual cave water studies where host rock composition is unknown, or in speleothems for which no field drip water data or host-rock geochemistry exists. Approximately half of published drip and speleothem Mg + Sr studies plot within error of this slope. We hypothesize that the overall trend in our Pacific speleothem data results from the individual dripwater systems evolving from a roughly similar initial rock composition set by late Quaternary reef limestone. In the Guam speleothem, the broad peak in Mg and Sr centred on the early–mid Holocene reflects a change in hydrology (rainfall), with the most likely scenario being that dry conditions prevailed on Guam at this time.

In assessing the feasibility of widespread deployment of CO2 geological storage, it is prudent to first assess potential consequences of an error or accident that could lead to CO2 leakage into groundwater resources above a sequestration interval. Information about the sensitivity of the groundwater system to introduction of CO2 is needed in order to design groundwater monitoring program. A laboratory-batch experiment was conducted to explore the range of CO2 impact on groundwater quality of a spectrum of representative aquifers, in the Gulf Coast region, USA. Results show that CO2 elevated concentrations of many cations within hours or days. Two types of cations were recognized according to their concentration trends. Type I cations—Ca, Mg, Si, K, Sr, Mn, Ba, Co, B, Zn—rapidly increased following initial CO2 flux and reached stable concentrations before the end of the experiment. Type II cations—Fe, Al, Mo, U, V, As, Cr, Cs, Rb, Ni and Cu—increased at the start of CO2 flux, but declined, in most cases, to levels lower than pre-CO2 concentrations. Dissolution of dolomite and calcite caused the largest increase in concentrations for Ca, Mg, Mn, Ba and Sr. Cation release rates decreased linearly as pH increased during mineral buffering. Experiment results suggest that carbonate minerals are the dominant contributor of changes in groundwater quality. Risk assessments of potential degradation of groundwater and monitoring strategies should focus on these fast-reacting minerals. Mobilization risk of Type II cations, however, may be self-mitigated because adsorption occurs when pH rebounds.

Models and palaeoclimate data suggest that the tropical Pacific climate system plays a key part in the mechanisms underlying orbital-scale and abrupt climate change. Atmospheric convection over the western tropical Pacific is a major source of heat and moisture to extratropical regions, and may therefore influence the global climate response to a variety of forcing factors. The response of tropical Pacific convection to changes in global climate boundary conditions, abrupt climate changes and radiative forcing remains uncertain, however. Here we present three absolutely dated oxygen isotope records from stalagmites in northern Borneo that reflect changes in west Pacific warm pool hydrology over the past 27,000 years. Our results suggest that convection over the western tropical Pacific weakened 18,000-20,000 years ago, as tropical Pacific and Antarctic temperatures began to rise during the early stages of deglaciation. Convective activity, as inferred from oxygen isotopes, reached a minimum during Heinrich event 1 (ref. 10), when the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was weak, pointing to feedbacks between the strength of the overturning circulation and tropical Pacific hydrology. There is no evidence of the Younger Dryas event in the stalagmite records, however, suggesting that different mechanisms operated during these two abrupt deglacial climate events. During the Holocene epoch, convective activity appears to track changes in spring and autumn insolation, highlighting the sensitivity of tropical Pacific convection to external radiative forcing. Together, these findings demonstrate that the tropical Pacific hydrological cycle is sensitive to high-latitude climate processes in both hemispheres, as well as to external radiative forcing, and that it may have a central role in abrupt climate change events.

Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10–100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland., The Younger Dryas cooling event has been identified in ice records in the Northern Hemisphere, but the effects of this cold snap on the tropics are poorly known. Here, the authors present a speleothem record and model simulations, showing that tropical hydroclimate recovered slower than temperatures in Greenland.

Climate variability associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results in large sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS) anomalies in many regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean. We investigate interannual changes in SSS driven by ENSO in the southwestern Pacific at Sabine Bank, Vanuatu (SBV, 166.04°E, 15.94°S) using monthly variations in coralδ18O from 1842 to 2007 CE. We develop and apply a coral δ18O-SSS transfer function, which is assessed using a calibration-verification exercise (1970-2007 CE). The 165-year reconstructed SSS record contains a prominent trend toward freshening from 1842 to 2007 CE; mean SSS for 1842-1872 CE is 35.46 ± 0.28 psu, which contrasts with a mean value of 34.85 ± 0.31 psu for 1977-2007 CE, with a freshening trend during the latter part of the 20th century that is not unprecedented with respect to the overall record. Variance in the record is concentrated in the interannual (42%) and interdecadal (29%) bands. The SBV-SSS record matches well with a similarly reconstructed SSS time series at Malo Channel, Vanuatu, which is located ∼120 km to the east of SBV. This regional signal is likely driven by ENSO-related changes in the SPCZ and interdecadal changes in surface water advection. The pattern of interdecadal variability at SBV agrees reasonably well with coral records of interdecadal variability from Fiji and Tonga, especially in the pre-1940 portions of the records, further evidence for the regional extent of the salinity signal at Sabine Bank, Vanuatu.

[1] Modern rainwater, cave dripwater and cave stalagmite geochemical time series from a cave in Guam (13°38′N, 144°53′E) are used to better understand how changes in cave stalagmite geochemistry relate to aboveground changes in rainfall at a tropical location. A scientific field team based in Guam collects ∼monthly samples from multiple sites for geochemical analyses at a cave and aboveground rainfall from a nearby location. We compute a transfer function between rainfall amount and oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of a decrease (increase) of 0.94 ± 0.3 m/year for every 1‰ increase (decrease) in rainfall δ18O, based on data extracted from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Global Networks of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) database and from data generated in this study. Dripwater δ18O and Mg/Ca ratios show annual cyclicity at some, but not all sites, accentuating the complex nature of cave hydrology. A stalagmite δ18O record for the last ∼160 years indicates the existence of droughts of decadal length, when rainfall is estimated to be ∼0.65 ± 0.3 m/year less than average conditions. This estimate of rainfall reduction most likely refers to wet season months, as these months preferentially contribute to groundwater recharge. The proxy-based climate record at Guam provides new evidence highlighting how a rainy site in the Western Pacific Warm Pool today can experience considerable changes in rainfall on decadal timescales.