Search

The presence/absence and abundance of benthic foraminifera in successive discrete beds (Shattuck “zones”) of the Miocene Calvert and Choptank formations, exposed at the Calvert Cliffs, Maryland, USA, allows for investigation of community dynamics over space and time. The stratigraphic distribution of benthic foraminifera is documented and interpreted in the context of sea-level change, sequence stratigraphy, and the previously published distribution of mollusks. Neritic benthic foraminiferal communities of four sea-level cycles over ∼4 million years of the middle Miocene, encompassing the Miocene Climatic Optimum and the succeeding middle Miocene Climate Transition, are dominated by the same abundant species. They differ in the varying abundance of common species that occur throughout most of the studied section and in the different rare species that appear and disappear. Transgressive systems tracts (TSTs) have higher species diversity than highstand systems tracts (HSTs) but much lower density of specimens. In contrast to some previous research, all beds in the studied section are interpreted as being from the inner part of a broad, low gradient shelf and were deposited at water depths of less than ∼50 m. It is suggested that species are recruited from a regional species pool of propagules throughout the duration of TSTs. Recruitment is curtailed during highstands leading to lower diversity in the HSTs.

The Yorktown Formation records paleoclimate conditions along the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma), a climate interval of the Pliocene in some ways analogous to near future climate projections. To gain insight into potential near future changes, we investigated Yorktown Formation outcrops and cores in southeastern Virginia, refining the stratigraphic framework. We analyzed 485 samples for alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) and productivity estimates from the Holland and Dory cores, an outcrop at Morgarts Beach, Virginia, and the lectostratotype of the Yorktown Formation at Rushmere, Virginia, and analyzed planktonic foraminferal assemblage data from the type section. Using the structure of the SST record, we improved the chronology of the Yorktown Formation by establishing the maximum age ranges of the Rushmere (3.3–3.2 Ma) and Morgarts Beach (3.2–3.15 Ma) Members. SST values for these members average ~26 °C, corroborating existing sclerochronological data. Increasing planktonic foraminifer abundance, productivity, and species diversity parallel increasing SST over the MIS M2/M1 transition. These records constitute the greatest temporal concentration of paleoecological estimates within the Yorktown Formation, aiding our understanding of western North Atlantic temperature patterns, seasonality and ocean circulation during this interval. We provide a chronologic framework for future studies analyzing ecological responses to profound climate change.

The mid-Piacenzian (Pliocene) climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth, relative to the last million years, sharing similarities with the climate project...

The Arctic cryosphere is changing and making a significant contribution to sea level rise. The Late Pliocene had similar CO2 levels to the present and a warming comparable to model predictions for the end of this century. However, the state of the Arctic cryosphere during the Pliocene remains poorly constrained. For the first time we combine outputs from a climate model with a thermodynamic iceberg model to simulate likely source regions for ice-rafted debris (IRD) found in the Nordic Seas from Marine Isotope Stage M2 to the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period and what this implies about the nature of the Arctic cryosphere at this time. We compare the fraction of melt given by the model scenarios with IRD data from four Ocean Drilling Program sites in the Nordic Seas. Sites 911A, 909C, and 907A show a persistent occurrence of IRD that model results suggest is consistent with permanent ice on Svalbard. Our results indicate that icebergs sourced from the east coast of Greenland do not reach the Nordic Seas sites during the warm Late Pliocene but instead travel south into the North Atlantic. In conclusion, we suggest a continuous occurrence of marine-terminating glaciers on Svalbard and on East Greenland (due to the elevation of the East Greenland Mountains during the Late Pliocene). The study has highlighted the usefulness of coupled climate model-iceberg trajectory modeling for understanding ice sheet behavior when proximal geological records for Pliocene ice presence or absence are absent or are inconclusive.

Ostracoda (bivalved Crustacea) comprise a significant part of the benthic meiofauna in the Pacific-Arctic region, including more than 50 species, many with identifiable ecological tolerances. These species hold potential as useful indicators of past and future ecosystem changes. In this study, we examined benthic ostracodes from nearly 300 surface sediment samples, >34,000 specimens, from three regions—the northern Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas—to establish species’ ecology and distribution. Samples were collected during various sampling programs from 1970 through 2018 on the continental shelves at 20 to ~100m water depth. Ordination analyses using species’ relative frequencies identified six species,Normanicythere leioderma,Sarsicytheridea bradii,Paracyprideis pseudopunctillata,Semicytherura complanata,Schizocythere ikeyai, andMunseyella mananensis, as having diagnostic habitat ranges in bottom water temperatures, salinities, sediment substrates and/or food sources. Species relative abundances and distributions can be used to infer past bottom environmental conditions in sediment archives for paleo-reconstructions and to characterize potential changes in Pacific-Arctic ecosystems in future sampling studies. Statistical analyses further showed ostracode assemblages grouped by the summer water masses influencing the area. Offshore-to-nearshore transects of samples across different water masses showed that complex water mass characteristics, such as bottom temperature, productivity, as well as sediment texture, influenced the relative frequencies of ostracode species over small spatial scales. On the larger biogeographic scale, synoptic ordination analyses showed dominant species—N.leioderma(Bering Sea),P.pseudopunctillata(offshore Chukchi and Beaufort Seas), andS.bradii(all regions)—remained fairly constant over recent decades. However, during 2013–2018, northern Pacific speciesM.mananensisandS.ikeyaiincreased in abundance by small but significant proportions in the Chukchi Sea region compared to earlier years. It is yet unclear if these assemblage changes signify a meiofaunal response to changing water mass properties and if this trend will continue in the future. Our new ecological data on ostracode species and biogeography suggest these hypotheses can be tested with future benthic monitoring efforts.

The Piacenzian (Late Pliocene) represents a natural laboratory within which frequency and magnitude of environmental changes during a period of past global warmth can be analyzed, climate models ca...

The mid-Piacenzian is known as a period of relative warmth when compared to the present day. A comprehensive understanding of conditions during the Piacenzian serves as both a conceptual model and a source for boundary conditions as well as means of verification of global climate model experiments. In this paper we present the PRISM4 reconstruction, a paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the mid-Piacenzian ( ∼ 3 Ma) containing data for paleogeography, land and sea ice, sea-surface temperature, vegetation, soils, and lakes. Our retrodicted paleogeography takes into account glacial isostatic adjustments and changes in dynamic topography. Soils and lakes, both significant as land surface features, are introduced to the PRISM reconstruction for the first time. Sea-surface temperature and vegetation reconstructions are unchanged but now have confidence assessments. The PRISM4 reconstruction is being used as boundary condition data for the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) experiments.

The global distribution of late Pliocene soils and lakes has been reconstructed using a synthesis of geological data. These reconstructions are then used as boundary conditions for the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (HadCM3) and the BIOME4 mechanistic vegetation model. By combining our novel soil and lake reconstructions with a fully coupled climate model we are able to explore the feedbacks of soils and lakes on the climate of the late Pliocene. Our experiments reveal regionally confined changes of local climate and vegetation in response to the new boundary conditions. The addition of late Pliocene soils has the largest influence on surface air temperatures, with notable increases in Australia, the southern part of northern Africa and in Asia. The inclusion of late Pliocene lakes increases precipitation in central Africa and at the locations of lakes in the Northern Hemisphere. When combined, the feedbacks on climate from late Pliocene lakes and soils improve the data to model fit in western North America and the southern part of northern Africa.

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) do not reproduce the magnitude of Northern Hemisphere high latitude surface air and sea surface temperature (SAT and SST) warming that proxy data indicate. There is also large uncertainty regarding the state of sea ice cover in the mPWP. Evidence for both perennial and seasonal mPWP Arctic sea ice is found through analyses of marine sediments, whilst in a multi-model ensemble of mPWP climate simulations, half of the ensemble simulated ice-free summer Arctic conditions. Given the strong influence that sea ice exerts on high latitude temperatures, an understanding of the nature of mPWP Arctic sea ice would be highly beneficial. Using the HadCM3 GCM, this paper explores the impact of various combinations of potential mPWP orbital forcing, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and minimum sea ice albedo on sea ice extent and high latitude warming. The focus is on the Northern Hemisphere, due to availability of proxy data, and the large data–model discrepancies in this region. Changes in orbital forcings are demonstrated to be sufficient to alter the Arctic sea ice simulated by HadCM3 from perennial to seasonal. However, this occurs only when atmospheric CO 2 concentrations exceed 300 ppm. Reduction of the minimum sea ice albedo from 0.5 to 0.2 is also sufficient to simulate seasonal sea ice, with any of the combinations of atmospheric CO 2 and orbital forcing. Compared to a mPWP control simulation, monthly mean increases north of 60°N of up to 4.2 °C (SST) and 9.8 °C (SAT) are simulated. With varying CO 2 , orbit and sea ice albedo values we are able to reproduce proxy temperature records that lean towards modest levels of high latitude warming, but other proxy data showing greater warming remain beyond the reach of our model. This highlights the importance of additional proxy records at high latitudes and ongoing efforts to compare proxy signals between sites.

The mid-Pliocene (approximately 3 to 3.3 Ma ago), is a period of sustained global warmth in comparison to the late Quaternary (0 to approximately 1 Ma ago), and has potential to inform predictions of long-term future climate change. However, given that several processes potentially contributed, relatively little is understood about the reasons for the observed warmth, or the associated polar amplification. Here, using a modelling approach and a novel factorisation method, we assess the relative contributions to mid-Pliocene warmth from: elevated CO2, lowered orography, and vegetation and ice sheet changes. The results show that on a global scale, the largest contributor to mid-Pliocene warmth is elevated CO2. However, in terms of polar amplification, changes to ice sheets contribute significantly in the Southern Hemisphere, and orographic changes contribute significantly in the Northern Hemisphere. We also carry out an energy balance analysis which indicates that that on a global scale, surface albedo and atmospheric emmissivity changes dominate over cloud changes. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the prescribed CO2 and orographic changes, to derive uncertainty ranges for the various contributing processes.

The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times where the anti-phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheet retreat is minimised.

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3.3 to 3.0 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland–Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios.

It is essential to document how well the current generation of climate models performs in simulating past climates to have confidence in their ability to project future conditions. We present the first global, in-depth comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from a coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model experiment and a SST reconstruction based on proxy data. This enables the identification of areas in which both the climate model and the proxy dataset require improvement. In general, the fit between model-produced SST anomalies and those formed from the available data is very good. We focus our discussion on three regions where the data–model anomaly exceeds 2 °C. 1) In the high latitude North Pacific, a systematic model error may result in anomalies that are too cold. Also, the deeper Pliocene thermocline may cause disagreement along the California margin; either the upwelling in the model is too strong or the modeled thermocline is not deep enough. 2) In the North Atlantic, the model predicts cooling in the center of a data-based warming trend that steadily increases with latitude from + 1.5 °C to >+ 6 °C. The discrepancy may arise because the modeled North Atlantic Current is too zonal compared to reality, which is reinforced by the lowering of the altitude of the Pliocene Western Cordillera Mountains. In addition, the model's use of modern bathymetry in the higher latitudes may have led the model to underestimate the northward penetration of warmer surface water into the Arctic. 3) Finally, though the data and model show good general agreement across most of the Southern Ocean, a few locations show offsets due to the modern land–sea mask used in the model. Additional considerations could account for many of the modest data–model anomalies, such as differences between calibration climatologies, the oversimplification of the seasonal cycle, and differences between SST proxies (i.e. seasonality and water depth). New SST estimates from data-sparse and regionally important areas will greatly enhance our ability to judge model performance.

The mid-Pliocene warm period (ca. 3 to 3.3 million years ago) has become an important interval of time for palaeoclimate modelling exercises, with a large number of studies published during the last decade. However, there has been no attempt to assess the degree of model dependency of the results obtained. Here we present an initial comparison of mid-Pliocene climatologies produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research atmosphere-only General Circulation Models (GCMAM3 and HadAM3). Whilst both models are consistent in the simulation of broad-scale differences in mid-Pliocene surface air temperature and total precipitation rates, significant variation is noted on regional and local scales. There are also significant differences in the model predictions of total cloud cover. A terrestrial data/model comparison, facilitated by the BIOME 4 model and a new data set of Piacenzian Stage land cover [Salzmann, U., Haywood, A.M., Lunt, D.J., Valdes, P.J., Hill, D.J., (2008). A new global biome reconstruction and data model comparison for the Middle Pliocene. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17, 432-447, doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00381.x] and combined with the use of Kappa statistics, indicates that HadAM3-based biome predictions provide a closer fit to proxy data in the mid to high-latitudes. However, GCMAM3-based biomes in the tropics provide the closest fit to proxy data.

Climate predictions produced by numerical climate models, often referred to as general circulation models (GCMs), suggest that by the end of the twenty-first century global mean annual surface air temperatures will increase by 1.1–6.4°C. Trace gas records from ice cores indicate that atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 are already higher than at any time during the last 650 000 years. In the next 50 years, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are expected to reach a level not encountered since an epoch of time known as the Pliocene. Uniformitarianism is a key principle of geological science, but can the past also be a guide to the future? To what extent does an examination of the Pliocene geological record enable us to successfully understand and interpret this guide? How reliable are the ‘retrodictions’ of Pliocene climates produced by GCMs and what does this tell us about the accuracy of model predictions for the future? These questions provide the scientific rationale for this Theme Issue.

Mid-Pliocene low-latitude Pacific faunal (planktic foraminifer) sea surface temperature (SST) estimates are normally based upon the Modern Analog Technique (MAT). In the Eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP), where upwelling of cool water predominates, MAT can be used to discern both cooling and warming in Neogene records. SST today is ~30°C in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) warm pool, the upper limit of the modern calibration data, and past warming above that level is difficult to assess using faunal methods. Mid-Pliocene fossil samples from the WEP have been analyzed using several variations of MAT with different outcomes and associated levels of confidence. While SST above ~30°C in the WEP during the mid-Pliocene cannot be ruled out due to the limitations of the method, temperatures this warm seem unlikely. In addition to the mid-Pliocene, planktic foraminifer assemblages from the coretop, last glacial maximum, last interglacial and the penultimate glacial (Marine Isotope Stage 6) show striking similarity to each other which suggests little to no change in the region between times of global climate extremes. There is generally good agreement between the Mg/Ca paleothermometer and MAT derived faunal SST estimates. Both suggest stability of the WEP warm pool.

The US Geological Survey Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) North Atlantic faunal data set provides a unique, temporally constrained perspective to document and evaluate the quantitative geographic distribution of key mid-Pliocene taxa. Planktic foraminifer census data from within the PRISM time slab (3.29 to 2.97 Ma) at thirteen sites in the North Atlantic Ocean have been analyzed. We have compiled Scanning Electron Micrographs for an atlas of mid-Pliocene assemblages from the North Atlantic with descriptions of each taxon to document the taxonomic concepts that accompany the PRISM data. In mid-Pliocene assemblages, the geographic distributions of extant taxa are similar to their present day distributions, although some are extended to the north. We use the distribution of extinct taxa to assess previous assumptions regarding environmental preferences.

This article presents data derived by the USGS Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project. PRISM has generated planktic foraminifer census data from core sites and outcrops around the globe since 1988. These data form the basis of a number of paleoceanographic reconstructions focused on the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 million years ago). Data are presented as counts of individuals within 64 taxonomic categories for each locality. We describe sample acquisition and processing, age dating, taxonomy and archival storage of material. These data provide a unique, stratigraphically focused opportunity to assess the effects of global warming on marine plankton.

We studied magnesium:calcium (Mg/Ca) ratios in shells of the deep-sea ostracode genus Krithe from a short interval in the middle Pliocene between 3.29 and 2.97 Ma using deep-sea drilling sites in the North and South Atlantic in order to estimate bottom water temperatures (BWT) during a period of climatic warmth. Results from DSDP and ODP Sites 552A, 610A, 607, 658A, 659A, 661A and 704 for the period Ma reveal both depth and latitudinal gradients of mean Mg/Ca values. Shallower sites (552A, 610A and 607) have higher mean Mg/Ca ratios (10.3, 9.7, 10.1 mmol/mol) than deeper sites (661A, 6.3 mmol/mol), and high latitude North Atlantic sites (552A, 610A, 607) have higher Mg/Ca ratios than low latitude (658A: 9.8 mmol/mol, 659A: 7.7 mmol/mol, 661A: 6.3 mmol/mol) and Southern Ocean (704: 8.0 mmol/mol) sites. Converting Mg/Ca ratios into estimated temperatures using the calibration of Dwyer et al. (1995) [Dwyer, G.S., Cronin, T.M., Baker, P.A., Raymo, M.E., Buzas, J.S., Correge, T., 1995. North Atlantic deepwater temperature change during late Pliocene and late Quaternary climatic cycles. Science 270, 1347–1351] suggests that mean middle Pliocene bottom water temperatures at the study sites in the deep Atlantic were about the same as modern temperatures. However, brief pulses of elevated BWT occurred several times between 3.29 and 2.97 Ma in both the North and South Atlantic Ocean suggesting short-term changes in deep ocean circulation.

Comparing simulations of key warm periods in Earth history with contemporaneous geological proxy data is a useful approach for evaluating the ability of climate models to simulate warm, high-CO2 climates that are unprecedented in the more recent past. Here we use a global data set of confidence-assessed, proxy-based temperature estimates and biome reconstructions to assess the ability of eight models to simulate warm terrestrial climates of the Pliocene epoch. The Late Pliocene, 3.6–2.6 million years ago, is an accessible geological interval to understand climate processes of a warmer world. We show that model-predicted surface air temperatures reveal a substantial cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere. Particularly strong data–model mismatches in mean annual temperatures (up to 18 °C) exist in northern Russia. Our model sensitivity tests identify insufficient temporal constraints hampering the accurate configuration of model boundary conditions as an important factor impacting on data–model discrepancies. We conclude that to allow a more robust evaluation of the ability of present climate models to predict warm climates, future Pliocene data–model comparison studies should focus on orbitally defined time slices.

The distribution of Ostracoda in three long cores from the deep eastern Arctic Ocean was studied to determine the palaeoceanographical history of the Eurasian Basin during the late Quaternary. The samples for this study were obtained from the Lomonosov Ridge, Morris Jesup Rise and Yermak Plateau during the Arctic 91 expedition. Ostracoda previously studied in coretops at the same sites as the present study have shown that individual species have a strong association with different water masses and bathymetry. Throughout the late Quaternary, cores exhibit ostracod-rich layers separated by barren intervals. On the basis of biostratigraphical, isotopic and palaeomagnetic data the fossiliferous levels are interpreted as representing interglacial stages. The twenty most significant species were selected for subsequent quantitative investigation using Cluster and Factor analyses, in order to determine similarity and variance between the assemblages. An additional statistical method employing Modern Analogues and the Squared Chord Distance dissimilarity coefficient was utilised to compare the present late Quaternary fossil samples with a modern Arctic database. The results reveal a major faunal division within the Arctic Ocean Deep Water (AODW). Highly abundant and diverse assemblages within the cores were found to group and have good analogues with the Recent bathyal depth (1000–2500 m) upper AODW assemblages. Conversely, assemblages with low abundance and diversity correlate well with abyssal depth (>3000 m) lower AODW assemblages. The palaeoceanographical history is complicated by the influence of adjacent water masses such as Canada Basin Deep Water (CBDW), Greenland Sea Deep Water (GSDW) and most importantly, Arctic Intermediate Water (AIW), which all had an influence on the ostracod assemblages during the late Quaternary. An enhanced flow of warm saline AIW into the Eurasian Basin results in species-rich upper AODW assemblages having good analogues down to 2750 m in the water column. In contrast, lower AODW assemblages influenced by cold well-oxygenated GSDW give analogues at depths as shallow as 1000 m. The faunal changes are the consequence of rapid climatic fluctuations in the eastern Arctic Ocean during the late Quaternary that are intrinsically linked to palaeoceanographical alternations in warm and cold current inflow from adjacent basins.

Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable climate information and instead presents a holistic and nuanced interpretation of multi-dimensional oceanographic processes and responses. A wealth of environmental information is hidden within the US Geological Survey's P liocene R esearch, I nterpretation and S ynoptic M apping (PRISM) marine palaeoclimate reconstruction, and we introduce here a plan to incorporate all valuable climate data into the next generation of PRISM products. Beyond the global approach and focus, we plan to incorporate regional climate dynamics with emphasis on processes, integrating multiple environmental proxies wherever available in order to better characterize the mixed layer, and developing a finer time slice within the Mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene, complemented by underused proxies that offer snapshots into environmental conditions. The result will be a proxy-rich, temporally nested, process-oriented approach in a digital format—a relational database with geographic information system capabilities comprising a three-dimensional grid representing the surface layer, with a plethora of data in each cell.

The characteristics of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP: 3.264–3.025 Ma BP) have been examined using geological proxies and climate models. While there is agreement between models and data, details of regional climate differ. Uncertainties in prescribed forcings and in proxy data limit the utility of the interval to understand the dynamics of a warmer than present climate or evaluate models. This uncertainty comes, in part, from the reconstruction of a time slab rather than a time slice , where forcings required by climate models can be more adequately constrained. Here, we describe the rationale and approach for identifying a time slice(s) for Pliocene environmental reconstruction. A time slice centred on 3.205 Ma BP (3.204–3.207 Ma BP) has been identified as a priority for investigation. It is a warm interval characterized by a negative benthic oxygen isotope excursion (0.21–0.23‰) centred on marine isotope stage KM5c (KM5.3). It occurred during a period of orbital forcing that was very similar to present day. Climate model simulations indicate that proxy temperature estimates are unlikely to be significantly affected by orbital forcing for at least a precession cycle centred on the time slice, with the North Atlantic potentially being an important exception.

Based on a synthesis of geological data we have reconstructed the global distribution of Late Pliocene soils and lakes which are then used as boundary conditions in a series of model experiments using the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (HadCM3) and the BIOME4 mechanistic vegetation model. By combining our novel soil and lake reconstructions with a fully coupled climate model we are able to explore the feedbacks of soils and lakes on the climate of the Late Pliocene. Our experiments reveal regionally confined changes of local climate and vegetation in response to the new boundary conditions. The addition of Late Pliocene soils has the largest influence on surface air temperatures, with notable increases in Australia, southern North Africa and Asia. The inclusion of Late Pliocene lakes generates a significant increase in precipitation in central Africa, as well as seasonal increases in the Northern Hemisphere. When combined, the feedbacks on climate from Late Pliocene lakes and soils improve the data to model fit in western North America and southern North Africa.

Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

Analysis of planktic foraminifers and pollen from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 532 located on the continental margin of southwest Africa provides information on the link between Pliocene paleoceanographic conditions and paleoenvironments of southwest Africa. Increased upwelling at Site 532 correlates with southward migration of onshore vegetation regions. Both terrestrial and marine changes can be explained by changes in the southern hemisphere surface temperature gradient which affected the paleo-position of subtropical high pressure cells and productivity of water masses during the Pliocene. When the subtropical high pressure cells were further south, Southern Ocean waters were warmer, contained less sea ice, Southern Ocean diatom productivity was high, and nutrient depleted water upwelled off southwest Africa. When the subtropical high pressure cells were in a configuration similar to the present, Southern Ocean waters were cooler and contained more sea ice, the aerial extent of Southern Ocean diatom productivity was limited, and nutrient rich waters upwelled off southwest Africa as the Benguela upwelling system migrated closer to the position of Site 532.

Identification and analyses of Pliocene marine microfossils from 64 globally distributed stratigraphic sequences have been used to produce a middle Pliocene sea surface temperature reconstruction of the Earth. This reconstruction shows little or no change from current conditions in low latitude regions and significant warming of the ocean surface at mid and higher latitudes of both hemispheres. This pattern of warming is consistent with terrestrial records and suggests a combination of enhanced meridional ocean heat transport and enhanced greenhouse effect were responsible for the middle Pliocene warmth.

Climate reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bear many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In particular, marine and terrestrial paleoclimate data point to high latitude temperature amplification, with associated decreases in sea ice and land ice and altered vegetation distributions that show expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. NASA GISS climate models have been used to study the Pliocene climate since the USGS PRISM project first identified that the mid-Pliocene North Atlantic sea surface temperatures were anomalously warm. Here we present the most recent simulations of the Pliocene using the AR5/CMIP5 version of the GISS Earth System Model known as ModelE2-R. These simulations constitute the NASA contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. We provide discussion of features that show considerable improvement compared with simulations from previous versions of the NASA GISS models, improvement defined here as simulation results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene climate. In some regions even qualitative agreement between model results and paleodata are an improvement over past studies, but the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea in these new simulations is by far the most accurate portrayal ever of this key geographic region by the GISS climate model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterizations in the ocean model, have led to an Earth System Model that will produce more accurate projections of future climate.

The Pliocene epoch represents an important transition from a climate regime with high-frequency, low-amplitude oscillations when the Northern Hemisphere lacked substantial ice sheets, to the typical high-frequency, high-amplitude Middle to Late Pleistocene regime characterized by glacial—interglacial cycles that involve waxing and waning of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Analysis of middle Pliocene (∼3 Ma) marine and terrestrial records throughout the Northern Hemisphere forms the basis of an integrated synoptic Pliocene paleoclimate reconstruction of the last significantly warmer than present interval in Earth history. This reconstruction, developed primarily from paleontological data, includes middle Pliocene sea level, vegetation, land—ice distribution, sea—ice distribution, and sea-surface temperature (SST), all of which contribute to our conceptual understanding of this climate system. These data indicate middle Pliocene sea level was at least 25 m higher than present, presumably due in large part to a reduction in the size of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sea surface temperatures were essentially equivalent to modern temperatures in tropical regions but were significantly warmer at higher latitudes. Due to increased heat flux to high latitudes, both the Arctic and Antarctic appear to have been seasonally ice free during the middle Pliocene with greatly reduced sea ice extent relative to today during winter. Vegetation changes, while more complex, are generally consistent with marine SST changes and show increased warmth and moisture at higher latitudes during the middle Pliocene.

Application of quantitative micropaleontologic methods of sea-surface temperature (SST) estimation to the planktic foraminiferal faunas at Hole 548 in the northeast Atlantic between 3.5 and 2.0 Ma provide a detailed record of Pliocene surface temperature changes during the onset of major Northern Hemisphere glaciation. SST estimates indicate a relatively warm interval of “enhanced interglacials (warm peaks)” between 3.2 and 2.8 Ma followed by steady cooling with a significant step-like change toward colder temperatures occurring about 2.4 Ma. This record compares well with faunal and SST records from other North Atlantic sites.

The final closure of the Isthmus of Panama at ∼3.5 Ma divided the American tropical ocean into two separate and different oceanographic regions. Consequences for the marine biota were profound, but, hitherto, correlation of the Pacific and Caribbean coastal sections has not been precise enough to track biologic patterns. We present here a correlation of 31 sections from the Pacific and Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and western Panama. Using calcareous nannofossils and planktonic foraminifera at both the tops and bottoms of each formation, we estimate that the Caribbean section ranges from 8.2 Ma to 1.7 Ma; and the Pacific sequence, from 3.6 Ma to

The thermal structure of the mid-Piacenzian ocean is obtained by combining the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping Project (PRISM3) multiproxy sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstruction with bottom water temperature estimates from 27 locations produced using Mg/Ca paleothermometry based upon the ostracod genus Krithe. Deep water temperature estimates are skewed toward the Atlantic Basin (63% of the locations) and represent depths from 1000 m to 4500 m. This reconstruction, meant to serve as a validation data set as well as an initialization for coupled numerical climate models, assumes a Pliocene water mass framework similar to that which exists today, with several important modifications. The area of formation of present day North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) was expanded and extended further north toward the Arctic Ocean during the mid-Piacenzian relative to today. This, combined with a deeper Greenland-Scotland Ridge, allowed a greater volume of warmer NADW to enter the Atlantic Ocean. In the Southern Ocean, the Polar Front Zone was expanded relative to present day, but shifted closer to the Antarctic continent. This, combined with at least seasonal reduction in sea ice extent, resulted in decreased Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) production (relative to present day) as well as possible changes in the depth of intermediate waters. The reconstructed mid-Piacenzian three-dimensional ocean was warmer overall than today, and the hypothesized aerial extent of water masses appears to fit the limited stable isotopic data available for this time period.

[1] Pliocene sea surface temperature data, as well as terrestrial precipitation and temperature proxies, indicate warmer than modern conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and imply permanent El Nino–like conditions with impacts similar to those of the 1997/1998 El Nino event. Here we use a general circulation model to examine the global-scale effects that result from imposing warm tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in both modern and Pliocene simulations. Observed SSTs from the 1997/1998 El Nino event were used for the anomalies and incorporate Pacific warming as well as a prominent Indian Ocean Dipole event. Both the permanent El Nino (also called El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are necessary to reproduce temperature and precipitation patterns consistent with the global distribution of Pliocene proxy data. These patterns may result from the poleward propagation of planetary waves from the strong convection centers associated with the El Nino and IOD.

North Atlantic transfer function GSF18 was developed from simplified core top planktic foraminifer census data. Simplifications are based upon similar environmental responses of some modern taxa and assumptions about the paleoecology of now extinct Pliocene taxa. GSF18 is evaluated through application to “time slice” data sets from the last glacial maximum (18 ka) and last interglacial (122 ka) of the North Atlantic Ocean. Quantitative sea-surface temperature estimates from GSF18 at 106 glacial sites and 18 interglacial sites are approximately equivalent to Climate: Long Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) results at the same sites: a glacial North Atlantic considerably cooler than modern conditions and a last interglacial North Atlantic approximately the same as or slightly warmer than modern conditions. Minor differences are explained by the taxonomic structure of GSF18 and provide further insight into the environmental and temporal robustness of the transfer function.