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Extremely anomalous features of Meiyu in 2020 over the Yangtze–Huai River basin (YHRB) and associated causes in perspective of the large-scale circulation are investigated in this study, based on the Meiyu operational monitoring information and daily data of precipitation, global atmospheric reanalysis, and sea surface temperature (SST). The main results are as follows. (1) The 2020 YHRB Meiyu exhibits extremely anomalous characteristics, which are the most prominent since the 1980s. The 2020 Meiyu season features the fourth earliest onset, the third latest retreat, the longest duration, the maximum Meiyu rainfall, the strongest mean rainfall intensity, and the maximum number of stations/days with rainstorm. (2) The extremely long duration of the 2020 Meiyu season lies in the farily early onset and late retreat of Meiyu in this particular year. The early onset of Meiyu is due to the earlier-than-normal first northward shift and migration of the key influential systems including the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH) and the South Asian high (SAH) along with the East Asian summer monsoon, induced by weak cold air activities from late May to early mid-June. However, the extremely late retreat of Meiyu is because of later-than-normal second northward shift of the associated large-scale circulation systems accompanied with strong cold air activities, and extremely weak and southward located ITCZ over Northwest Pacific in July. (3) The extremely more than normal Meiyu rainfall is represented by its long duration and strong rainfall intensity. The latter is likely attributed to extreme anomalies of water vapor convergence and vertical ascending motion over the YHRB, resulting from the compound effects of the westward extended and enlarged NWPSH, the eastward extended and expanded SAH, and the strong water vapor transport associated with the low-level southerly wind. The extremely warm SST in the tropical Indian Ocean seems to be the key factor to induce the above-mentioned anomalous large-scale circulations. The results from this study serve to improve understanding of formation mechanisms of the extreme Meiyu in China and may help forecasters to extract useful large-scale circulation features from numerical model products to improve medium-extended-range operational forecasts.

Convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves (CCEKWs) are those types of equatorially trapped disturbances that propagate eastward and are among the most common intra-seasonal oscillations in the tropics. There exists two-way feedback between the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and these equatorially trapped disturbances. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) was utilized as a proxy for deep convection. For CCEKWs, the modes are located over the West Atlantic, equatorial West Africa, and the Indian Ocean. The influence of other circulations and climate dynamics is studied for finding other drivers of climate within East Africa. The results show a positive relationship between Indian and Atlantic Oceans Sea Surface Temperatures and March-May rainfall over equatorial East Africa over the period of 1980 to 2010. This influence is driven by the Walker circulation and anomalous moisture influx enhanced by winds. Composite analysis reveals strong lower-tropospheric westerlies during the active phase of the CCKWs activities over Equatorial East Africa. The winds are in the opposite direction with the upper-tropospheric winds, which are easterlies. Singular Value Decomposition shows a strong coupling interaction between rainfall over equatorial East Africa and CCKWs. This study concludes that Kelvin waves are not the main factors that influence rainfall during the rainy season. Previous studies show that the main influencing factors are ITCZ, El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and tropical anticyclones that borders the African continent. However, CCKWs are a significant factor during the dry seasons.

Under global warming, ENSO-driven precipitation anomalies over central eastern Pacific shift eastward because of narrowing ENSO SSTA., During El Niño events, increased precipitation occurs over the equatorial central eastern Pacific, corresponding to enhanced convective heating that modulates global climate by exciting atmospheric teleconnections. These precipitation anomalies are projected to shift and extend eastward in response to global warming. We show that this predicted change is caused by narrowing of the meridional span of the underlying El Niño–related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that leads to intensification of the meridional gradient of the SST anomalies, strengthening boundary-layer moisture convergence over the equatorial eastern Pacific, and enhancing local positive precipitation anomalies. The eastward shift and extension of these anomalies also intensify and extend eastward negative precipitation anomalies over the tropical western North Pacific, by strengthening equatorward advection of low mean moist enthalpy. Changes in El Niño–induced tropical precipitation anomalies suggest that, under global warming, El Niño events decay faster after their peak phase, thus shortening their duration.

The decline in March–May (MAM) ‘boreal spring’ rainfall is of great concern to Kenya’s agricultural sector. This study examines factors influencing MAM rainfall variability based on monthly observed and Climatic Research Unit (CRU) reanalysis rainfall datasets for the period 1971–2010. The distribution patterns of MAM rainfall were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF), whereas the Sequential Mann–Kendall (MK) statistic was used for trend analysis. Factors influencing seasonal rainfall were determined and assessment of the circulation anomalies associated with wet/dry condition during the study period was carried out. The MAM rainfall revealed decreasing trend. Wet years are associated with enhanced low-level convergence and upper-level divergence of winds, advection of moisture flux following a well-positioned and intensified Arabian high-pressure cell, and an accompanying rising branch of Walker circulation over Indian Ocean (IO). The sea surface temperatures anomalies (SSTAs) in the central and sub-tropical IO are closely related to MAM rainfall over Kenya. Positive SSTAs accompanying negative OLR anomalies may lead to intensified rising branch of the Walker circulation influencing the MAM wet events in Kenya. There is a negative correlation coefficient of − 0.62 between MAM rainfall and Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) indicating that the inter-annual variation of the MAM rainfall and OLR are in opposing phases and, hence, more convection and enhanced rainfall over the study domain. The study reveals that the circulation anomalies associated with the dry years are opposite to those in wet years, forming a good basis of monitoring similar events in future.

This study aims to detect the primary precursors and impact mechanisms for January surface temperature anomaly (JSTA) events in China against the background of global warming, by comparing the causes of two extreme JSTA events occurring in 2008 and 2011 with the common mechanisms inferred from all typical episodes during 1979–2008. The results show that these two extreme events exhibit atmospheric circulation patterns in the mid–high latitudes of Eurasia, with a positive anomaly center over the Ural Mountains and a negative one to the south of Lake Baikal (UMLB), which is a pattern quite similar to that for all the typical events. However, the Eurasian teleconnection patterns in the 2011 event, which are accompanied by a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, are different to those of the typical events and the 2008 event. We further find that a common anomalous signal appearing in early summer over the tropical Indian Ocean may be responsible for the following late-winter Eurasian teleconnections and the associated JSTA events in China. We show that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the preceding summer over the western Indian Ocean (WIO) are intimately related to the UMLB-like circulation pattern in the following January. Positive WIOSSTAs in early summer tend to induce strong UMLB-like circulation anomalies in January, which may result in anomalously or extremely cold events in China, which can also be successfully reproduced in model experiments. Our results suggest that the WIOSSTAs may be a useful precursor for predicting JSTA events in China.

Using a linear dynamic operator and the daily National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, the linearized part of the synoptic eddy feedback onto the low-frequency flow (SELF) associated with cold/warm events in January over China is investigated. Composite stream function differences between the cold and warming events show that the anomalous temperature events are linked closely to the teleconnection pattern which is related to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and accompanied with remarkable anomalies over Ural Mountain and the areas south to Lake Baikal. The significant eddy feedback exists as the episodes occur, which tends to induce a similar circulation pattern to the anomalous low-frequency flow associated with the temperature episodes. Further, a linear SELF operator is used to estimate quantitatively the linearized part of the eddy feedback on the low-frequency flow for the temperature events. Results show that the magnitude of the stream function anomalies (SFAs) induced by eddy forcing is bigger at higher latitudes than lower latitudes. The positive (negative) SFA can be induced where eddy-vorticity fluxes converge (diverge) into the anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation. Further analysis of differences in eddy feedback strength suggests that synoptic eddy feedback is more effective for the cold events than that for the warm events over North Atlantic, Ural Mountain, and the areas south to Lake Baikal. The SFA anomaly pattern over Ural Mountain and Lake Baikal associated with the anomalous temperature events in China will disappear without considering the eddy feedback. It suggests that the eddy feedback plays a very important role in maintaining the low-frequency flow during the January anomalous temperature events.

In terms of monthly NCEP/NCAR and 160 site temperature data from NCC (National Climate Center), the main modes of January surface air temperature in 1979-2008 over China and possible mechanism of typical cold/warm episodes are investigated. Results show that the first mode for January temperature is characterized by consist variation in China, which is closely related to circulation anomalies in stratosphere. From the wave source over East Asian in stratosphere wave fluxes propagate downward and westward, and in upper troposphere over North Atlantic there is a remarkable convergent area of wave flux leading to the ridge enhanced with stronger heat transforming to the North and front zone moving to more northerly. Thereby jet stream becomes strong and expands to East Atlantic with positive (negative) NAO anomaly pattern and higher pressure occurs south to Baikal indicating stronger (weaker) than normal cold air, which is helpful for lower (higher) temperature appearing over China