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Knowing when sea ice will open is crucial, notably for scientific deployments. This was particularly obvious when the Weddell Polynya, a large opening in the winter Southern Ocean sea ice, unexpectedly re-appeared in 2016. As no precursor had been detected, observations were limited to chance autonomous sensors, and the exact cause of the opening could not be determined accurately. We investigate here whether the signature of the vertical ocean motions or that of the leads, which ultimately re-open the polynya, are detectable in spaceborne infrared temperature before the polynya opens. From the full historical sea ice concentration record, we find 30 polynyas starting from 1980. Then, using the full time series of the spaceborne infrared Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, we determine that these events can be detected in the 2 weeks before the polynya opens as a reduction in the variance of the data. For the three commonly used infrared brightness temperature bands, the 15 d sum and 15 d standard deviation of their area median and maximum are systematically lower than the climatology when a polynya will open. Moreover, by comparing the infrared brightness temperature to atmospheric reanalysis, hydrographic mooring data, and autonomous profilers, we find that temporal oscillations in one band and the decrease in the difference between bands may be used as proxies for upwelling of warm water and presence of leads, respectively, albeit with caution. Therefore, although infrared data are strongly limited by their horizontal resolution and sensitivity to clouds, they could be used for studying ocean or atmosphere preconditioning of polynyas in the historical record.

Deep and bottom water formation are crucial components of the global ocean circulation, yet they were poorly represented in the previous generation of climate models. We here quantify biases in Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) and North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, properties, transport, and global extent in 35 climate models that participated in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Several CMIP6 models are correctly forming AABW via shelf processes, but 28 models in the Southern Ocean and all 35 models in the North Atlantic form deep and bottom water via open-ocean deep convection too deeply, too often, and/or over too large an area. Models that convect the least form the most accurate AABW but the least accurate NADW. The four CESM2 models with their overflow parameterisation are among the most accurate models. In the Atlantic, the colder the AABW, the stronger the abyssal overturning at 30∘ S, and the further north the AABW layer extends. The saltier the NADW, the stronger the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the further south the NADW layer extends. In the Indian and Pacific oceans in contrast, the fresher models are the ones which extend the furthest regardless of the strength of their abyssal overturning, most likely because they are also the models with the weakest fronts in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. There are clear improvements since CMIP5: several CMIP6 models correctly represent or parameterise Antarctic shelf processes, fewer models exhibit Southern Ocean deep convection, more models convect at the right location in the Labrador Sea, bottom density biases are reduced, and abyssal overturning is more realistic. However, more improvements are required, e.g. by generalising the use of overflow parameterisations or by coupling to interactive ice sheet models, before deep and bottom water formation, and hence heat and carbon storage, are represented accurately.

Automatic and visual sea ice classification of SAR imagery is impeded by the incidence angle dependence of backscatter intensities. Knowledge of the angular dependence of different ice types is therefore necessary to account for this effect. While consistent estimates exist for HH polarization for different ice types, they are lacking HV polarization data, especially for multiyear sea ice. Here we investigate the incidence angle dependence of smooth and rough/deformed first-year and multiyear ice of different ages for wintertime dual-polarization Sentinel-1 C-band SAR imagery in the Beaufort Sea. Assuming a linear relationship, this dependence is determined using the difference in incidence angle and backscatter intensities from ascending and descending images of the same area. At cross-polarization rough/deformed first-year sea ice shows the strongest angular dependence with $-\text{0.11}$ dB/ $1^{\circ }$ followed by multiyear sea ice with $-\text{0.07}$ dB/ $\text{1}^{\circ }$ , and old multiyear ice (older than three years) with $-\text{0.04}$ dB/ $\text{1}^{\circ }$ . The noise floor is found to have a strong impact on smooth first-year ice and estimated slopes are therefore not fully reliable. At co-polarization, we obtained slope values of $-0.24$ , $-0.20$ , $-\text{0.15},$ and $-\text{0.10}$ dB/ $\text{1}^{\circ }$ for smooth first-year, rough/deformed first-year, multiyear, and old multiyear sea ice, respectively. Furthermore, we show that imperfect noise correction of the first subswath influences the obtained slopes for multiyear sea ice. We demonstrate that incidence angle normalization should not only be applied to co-polarization but should also be considered for cross-polarization images to minimize intra ice type variation in backscatter intensity throughout the entire image swath.

Polynyas facilitate air–sea fluxes, impacting climate-relevant properties such as sea ice formation and deep water production. Despite their importance, polynyas have been poorly represented in past generations of climate models. Here we present a method to track the presence, frequency and spatial distribution of polynyas in the Southern Ocean in 27 models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and two satellite-based sea ice products. Only half of the 27 models form open-water polynyas (OWPs), and most underestimate their area. As in satellite observations, three models show episodes of high OWP activity separated by decades of no OWP, while other models unrealistically create OWPs nearly every year. In contrast, the coastal polynya area is overestimated in most models, with the least accurate representations occurring in the models with the coarsest horizontal resolution. We show that the presence or absence of OWPs is linked to changes in the regional hydrography, specifically the linkages between polynya activity with deep water convection and/or the shoaling of the upper water column thermocline. Models with an accurate Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and wind stress curl have too frequent OWPs. Biases in polynya representation continue to exist in climate models, which has an impact on the regional ocean circulation and ventilation that should be addressed. However, emerging iceberg discharge schemes, more adequate vertical grid type or overflow parameterisation are anticipated to improve polynya representations and associated climate prediction in the future.

The Arctic Ocean, although remote to most of us, is linked to lower latitudes by way of climate, physics, biology and biogeochemistry. Strongly coupled to the rapidly changing Arctic atmosphere and sea-ice, the ocean is subject to amplification of change amid global trends in climate. The relatively fresh and cold upper mixed-layer in the Arctic basin exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, yet the deeper warm water of Atlantic origin largely stays isolated from the ice. Further, changes in heat, salt and momentum due to exchange with ice and atmosphere cannot penetrate to great depth due to a strong halocline. Nevertheless, we observed changes in the upper water column stratification and mixing, due to storms and freeze-induced brine release during the year-long MOSAiC experiment. This was further expressed by significant variability in (sub)mesoscale processes, including eddies and frontal adjustment. We will present results from ocean observations during the MOSAiC drift using a variety of manually-operated devices and autonomous platforms within several 10s of kilometres from the drifting icebreaker Polarstern. Preliminary analyses of our data highlight a pronounced seasonal cycle in mixed-layer depth and upper ocean stratification characteristics connected to brine release, turbulent events triggered by storms, and geographic background variability. We will further detail the observed full-depth water mass distribution and attempt to untangle temporal and spatial variability. Finally, we will give an overview of Team-OCEAN analyses and interdisciplinary projects.

When will sea ice open is a crucial information for navigation and scientific deployments. This became painfully obvious when the Weddell Polynya, a large hole in the winter Southern Ocean sea ice, unexpectedly re-opened in 2016 for the first time in forty years. With no early warning, observations were limited to chance autonomous sensors, so the much-debated cause of the opening still cannot be determined accurately. We aim here to create such an early warning system. From the full historical sea ice concentration record, we find in fact 30 polynyas since 1980. Then, using the full time series of the spaceborne infrared Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, we determine that these events can be detected in the two weeks before the polynya opens. Area-average median brightness temperature larger than 253 K in all three bands and area-maximum larger than 269 K along with a footprint at least larger than 4000 km2 successfully forecasts the polynyas and does not return any false positive. Or rather, it returned false positives that were in fact events that the sea ice concentration threshold had missed. Moreover, we find temporal oscillations in brightness temperature that could indicate upwelling of warm water, but also changes of sign in T45 (band 4 – band 5) which could indicate a lead. We hence combine the spaceborne infrared data with atmospheric reanalysis, hydrographic mooring data and Sentinel-1 radar imagery and find that all events, including the 2017 Weddell Polynya, are caused by both atmospheric divergence and oceanic upwelling. That is, the debate is closed: both parties are correct; the Weddell Polynya is a hybrid.

Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the ocean has increased in recent decades, largely because the thinning of its floating ice shelves has allowed the outflow of grounded ice to accelerate1,2. Enhanced basal melting of the ice shelves is thought to be the ultimate driver of change2,3, motivating a recent focus on the processes that control ocean heat transport onto and across the seabed of the Antarctic continental shelf towards the ice4–6. However, the shoreward heat flux typically far exceeds that required to match observed melt rates2,7,8, suggesting that other critical controls exist. Here we show that the depth-independent (barotropic) component of the heat flow towards an ice shelf is blocked by the marked step shape of the ice front, and that only the depth-varying (baroclinic) component, which is typically much smaller, can enter the sub-ice cavity. Our results arise from direct observations of the Getz Ice Shelf system and laboratory experiments on a rotating platform. A similar blocking of the barotropic component may occur in other areas with comparable ice–bathymetry configurations, which may explain why changes in the density structure of the water column have been found to be a better indicator of basal melt rate variability than the heat transported onto the continental shelf9. Representing the step topography of the ice front accurately in models is thus important for simulating ocean heat fluxes and induced melt rates. The front of the Getz Ice Shelf in West Antarctica creates an abrupt topographic step that deflects ocean currents, suppressing 70% of the heat delivery to the ice sheet.

Radar altimetry in the context of sea ice has mostly been exploited to retrieve basin-scale information about sea ice thickness. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of altimetric waveforms to small-scale changes (a few hundred meters to about 10 km) of the sea ice surface. Near-coincidental synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery and CryoSat-2 altimetric data in the Beaufort Sea are used to identify and study the spatial evolution of altimeter waveforms over these features. Open water and thin ice features are easily identified because of their high peak power waveforms. Thicker ice features such as ridges and multiyear ice floes of a few hundred meters cause a response in the waveform. However, these changes are not reflected in freeboard estimates. Retrieval of robust freeboard estimates requires homogeneous floes in the order of 10 km along-track and a few kilometers to both sides across-track. We conclude that the combination of SAR imagery and altimeter data could improve the local sea ice picture by extending spatially scarce freeboard estimates to regions of similar SAR signature.

In this paper near co-incidental Sentinel-1 C-band SAR imagery and Sentinel-3 SRAL Ku-band altimeter data are compared for their capabilities of sea ice type discrimination. Knowledge of sea ice type is important for climate research and safety in Arctic offshore operations.First-year ice is characterised by a low SAR backscatter intensity in both HH and HV polarisation compared to multi-year ice, while the altimeter waveform parameters show high pulse peakiness and peak power compared to multi-year ice.Thus SAR imagery and altimetry can principally discriminate different ice types. The complexity of the backscattered radar signal however impedes a clear separation of the two types for all cases. Cross comparison of the two sensors offers an opportunity of high resolution validation data, which is often lacking for sea ice studies.

Nares Strait in northwest Greenland is one of the main gateways for oceanic freshwater and heat exchanges between the Arctic and the North Atlantic. With a changing Arctic climate, understanding the processes that govern the oceanic circulation in Arctic straits has become crucial and urgent, but this cannot be done with current geographically and temporally sparse in-situ observations only. High resolution regional modelling is thus required, but costly. We here report on one-year sensitivity experiments performed with the coupled ice-ocean regional model MITgcm to determine the relative importance of wind forcing, initial stratification and sea ice thickness on the accuracy of the modelled oceanic circulation in Nares Strait. We find that the modelled basin's circulation is mainly driven by density gradients in the upper oceanic layer, making accurate initial fields of temperature and salinity essential for a realistic oceanic circulation. The influence of the wind and sea ice thickness is less important, potentially making such high resolution fields not necessary for accurate strait modelling, provided these results are valid for other sea ice models as well. Comparison with ship-based measurements collected in summer 2015 reveals the experiments to be too cold at the surface, probably because of a not-dynamic-enough sea ice cover. Although the modelled freshwater is rather accurate, large efforts need to be put into observing the ocean and the sources of freshwater continuously throughout the year to produce realistic and efficient model simulations of the Arctic Straits, key players in the entire Arctic system and global climate.

A hole in the Antarctic sea ice cover, the Weddell Polynya, unexpectedly re-opened in winter 2017 for the first time since 1976. Models suggest that the polynya opened because warm oceanic water moved up to the surface, melting the ice from below. Here three temperature thresholds applied to near-hourly spaceborne infrared imagery (AVHRR) successfully detect the appearance of a warm spot up to five days before the polynya opened in June and September 2017. Traditional sea ice concentration and thickness criteria could only detect the polynya once it was open. An automatised warning system, using near-real time passive monitoring of warm spots, would allow researchers to reroute vessels or autonomous sensors in order to finally study the polynya as a whole when it opens again, from its preconditioning to its impacts on the climate system.

Most CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models unrealistically form Antarctic Bottom Water by open ocean deep convection in the Weddell and Ross seas. To identify the mechanisms triggering Southern Ocean deep convection in models, we perform sensitivity experiments on the ocean model NEMO3.4 forced by prescribed atmospheric fluxes. We vary the vertical velocity scale of the Langmuir turbulence, the fraction of turbulent kinetic energy transferred below the mixed layer, and the background diffusivity and run short simulations from 1980. All experiments exhibit deep convection in the Riiser-Larsen Sea in 1987; the origin is a positive sea ice anomaly in 1985, causing a shallow anomaly in mixed layer depth, hence anomalously warm surface waters and subsequent polynya opening. Modifying the vertical mixing impacts both the climatological state and the associated surface anomalies. The experiments with enhanced mixing exhibit colder surface waters and reduced deep convection. The experiments with decreased mixing give warmer surface waters, open larger polynyas causing more saline surface waters and have deep convection across the Weddell Sea until the simulations end. Extended experiments reveal an increase in the Drake Passage transport of 4 Sv each year deep convection occurs, leading to an unrealistically large transport at the end of the simulation. North Atlantic deep convection is not significantly affected by the changes in mixing parameters. As new climate model overflow parameterisations are developed to form Antarctic Bottom Water more realistically, we argue that models would benefit from stopping Southern Ocean deep convection, for example by increasing their vertical mixing.