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Degassing-induced crystallization in volatile rich intermediate composition magmas results in material stiffening and strengthening that prior to solidification is reflected in non-Newtonian rheology. We explore the effects of a spectrum of such rheological regimes on eruptive style and morphologic evolution of lava domes, using a two-dimensional (2D) particle-dynamics model for a spreading viscoplastic (Bingham) fluid. We assume that the ductile magma core of a 2D synthetic lava dome develops finite yield strength, and that deformable frictional talus evolves from a carapace that caps the magma core. Our new model is calibrated against an existing analytical model for a spreading viscoplastic lava dome and is further compared against observational data of lava dome growth. Results indicate that a degassing-induced increase in strength of the injected magma causes a transition in the lava dome morphology from a dome with low surface relief evolving endogenously (with apparent bulk yield strength - 104 105 – 106 Pa) extruded through the dome carapace. The virtual lava dome with τ0a = 0.6 MPa shows good agreement with the observed dome heights observed at the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat during a period of endogenous growth. The calculated apparent flow viscosity (1.36 × 1011 Pa·s for τ0a = 0.6 MPa) is in the range of estimated viscosities (109 to 1012 Pa·s) for andesitic-dacitic crystal-rich lavas. Our model results indicate a strong correlation between apparent yield strength and dome morphology, with both controlled by degassing-induced crystallization and extrusion rate.

We provide structural and paleomagnetic evidence for major distributed rotational shear adjacent to and including the active Husavik-Flatey transform fault in the southern part of the Tjornes Fracture Zone of north Iceland. In the Flateyjarskagi peninsula immediately south of the fault, dike and bedding trends gradually change over about 11 km in approaching the transform fault main trace. In map view this pattern is seen as a progressive clockwise curvature of structural elements that equals or in some cases exceeds 90°. We present paleomagnetic analyses that verify large clockwise rotations of the same order as the curvature of structural elements observed. We compare our field and paleomagnetic observations with results from careful analog modeling that demonstrate how regional curvature of structures results from distributed strain that dominates the early stages of transform shear deformation, prior to the appearance of a transform fault system comprised of discrete shears. Our paleomagnetic results were obtained from one relatively undisturbed reference site, and three sites of deformed rocks in Flateyjarskagi and two in Tjornes peninsula. These results indicate large vertical-axis rotations, and the progressive deflection of dike trends throughout northern Flateyjarskagi also serves as a separate quantitative estimate of vertical-axis rotation. The clockwise vertical-axis rotation estimates of 71°–97° from dikes are less than those deduced from paleomagnetism, but the order of magnitude is correct and we attribute the differences as mainly reflecting imperfect bed attitude adjustments used in analyses. The problem is typical for deformed rocks from high-latitude sites with steeply inclined paleomagnetic vectors. We consider our field measurements of dikes as more accurate indicators of true tectonic rotation. This regional deformation of Miocene rocks occurred early in the evolution of the TFZ transform, probably beginning ca. 7 Ma, when an older rift zone present in western North Iceland jumped to its present NVZ location in northeast Iceland. The early deformations involved shear strain distributed over a region about 20-km broad and produced the curved structures. This phase was followed by the sequential development of more narrowly distributed discrete shears, generating the initial Husavik-Flatey transform fault.

One of the World's premier field geologists, Kristjan Saemundsson led immense geological mapping programs and authored or co-authored nearly all geological maps of Iceland during the past half century, including the first modern bedrock and tectonic maps of the whole country. These monumental achievements collectively yield the most inclusive view of an extensional plate boundary anywhere on Earth. When Kristjan began his work in 1961, the relation of Iceland to sea-floor spreading was not clear, and plate tectonics had not yet been invented. Kristjan resolved key obstacles by demonstrating that the active rifting zones in Iceland had shifted over time and were linked by complex transforms to the mid-ocean spreading ridge, thus making the concept of sea-floor spreading in Iceland acceptable to those previously skeptical. Further, his insights and vast geological and tectonic knowledge on both high- and low-temperature geothermal areas in Iceland yielded a major increase in knowledge of geothermal systems, and probably no one has contributed more than he to Icelandic energy development. Kristjan's legacy is comprised by his numerous superb maps on a variety of scales, the high quality papers he produced, the impactful ideas generated that were internationally diffused, and the generations of colleagues and younger people he inspired, mentored, or otherwise positively influenced with his knowledge and generous attitude.

Lava domes are structures that grow by the extrusion of viscous silicic or intermediate composition magma from a central volcanic conduit. Repeated cycles of growth are punctuated by collapse, as the structure becomes oversized for the strength of the composite magma that rheologically stiffens and strengthens at its surface. Here we explore lava dome growth and failure mechanics using a two-dimensional particle-dynamics model. The model follows the evolution of fractured lava, with solidification driven by degassing induced crystallization of magma. The particle-dynamics model emulates the natural development of dome growth and rearrangement of the lava dome which is difficult in mesh-based analyses due to mesh entanglement effects. The deformable talus evolves naturally as a frictional carapace that caps a ductile magma core. Extrusion rate and magma rheology together with crystallization temperature and volatile content govern the distribution of strength in the composite structure. This new model is calibrated against existing observational models of lava dome growth. Results show that the shape and extent of the ductile core and the overall structure of the lava dome are strongly controlled by the infusion rate. The effects of extrusion rate on magma rheology are sensitive to material stiffness, which in turn is a function of volatile content and crystallinity. Material stiffness and material strength are key model parameters which govern magma rheology and subsequently the morphological character of the lava dome and in turn stability. Degassing induced crystallization causes material stiffening and enhances material strength reflected in non-Newtonian magma behavior. The increase in stiffness and strength of the injected magma causes a transition in the style of dome growth, from endogenous expansion of a ductile core, to stiffer and stronger intruding material capable of punching through the overlying material and resulting in the development of a spine or possibly inducing dome collapse. Simulation results mimic development of a megaspine upon the influx of fresh magma which leads to the re-direction of magma flow, creating a new shear zone and the switching of dome growth from one side to the other. Our model shows similar dome growth dynamics as observed at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, indicating a strong correlation between extrusion rate and its subsequent effect on mechanical properties and variations in magma rheology.

We use histories of magma efflux and surface deformation from a continuously operating global positioning system (cGPS) to quantitatively constrain magma transfer within the deep crustal plumbing of the Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV). Displacement records reach a surface aperture of approximately 11 km and are continuous over three successive cycles of eruption followed by a pause spanning 1995–2008, and we focus on data of this time period. The assumed geometry and flow topology is for twin vertically stacked spherical chambers pierced by a vertical conduit that transmits magma from the deep crust to the surface. For a compressible magma column within an elastic crust we use mean deformation rates measured at between 6 and 13 cGPS stations for periods of effusion then repose and the time-history of magma efflux to define optimal chamber depths and basal magma input. The best fit for a constrained constant basal input to the system is obtained for chambers at 5 and 19 km, and a constant magma input rate of approximately 1.2 m 3 s −1 . Eruptive then pause episodes are, respectively, characterized by synchronous deflation then inflation of both shallow and deep chambers. Throughout this period of three repeated episodes of effusion then repose, the total effusive volume ( c. 0.95 km 3 dense rock equivalent, DRE) has been sourced half from the lower chamber ( c. 0.5 km 3 ) and half from below this chamber ( c. 0.45 km 3 ). A consistent observation, repeated through three episodes, is that the eruption restarts as the shallow chamber regains its original volume following the pause and that eruption rearrests when the shallow chamber has deflated by a small but constant volume change ( c. 16–22 Mm 3 ). This magmatic metering is consistent with a control on eruption periodicity that involves overpressured breaching of the shallow chamber followed by underpressured sealing. We contrast these observations with other contemporary models that have consistently placed an upper chamber at a depth of approximately 5–6 km, and deeper chambers at 12 km and deeper.

Since 1995 the eruption of the andesitic Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat, has been studied in substantial detail. As an important contribution to this effort, the Seismic Experiment with Airgunsource-Caribbean Andesitic Lava Island Precision Seismo-geodetic Observatory (SEA-CALIPSO) experiment was devised to image the arc crust underlying Montserrat, and, if possible, the magma system at SHV using tomography and reflection seismology. Field operations were carried out in October–December 2007, with deployment of 238 seismometers on land supplementing seven volcano observatory stations, and with an array of 10 ocean-bottom seismometers deployed offshore. The RRS James Cook on NERC cruise JC19 towed a tuned airgun array plus a digital 48-channel streamer on encircling and radial tracks for 77 h about Montserrat during December 2007, firing 4414 airgun shots and yielding about 47 Gb of data. The main objecctives of the experiment were achieved. Preliminary analyses of these data published in 2010 generated images of heterogeneous high-velocity bodies representing the cores of volcanoes and subjacent intrusions, and shallow areas of low velocity on the flanks of the island that reflect volcaniclastic deposits and hydrothermal alteration. The resolution of this preliminary work did not extend beyond 5 km depth. An improved three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model was then obtained by inversion of 181 665 first-arrival travel times from a more-complete sampling of the dataset, yielding clear images to 7.5 km depth of a low-velocity volume that was interpreted as the magma chamber which feeds the current eruption, with an estimated volume 13 km3. Coupled thermal and seismic modelling revealed properties of the partly crystallized magma. Seismic reflection analyses aimed at imaging structures under southern Montserrat had limited success, and suggest subhorizontal layering interpreted as sills at a depth of between 6 and 19 km. Seismic reflection profiles collected offshore reveal deep fans of volcaniclastic debris and fault offsets, leading to new tectonic interpretations. This chapter presents the project goals and planning concepts, describes in detail the campaigns at sea and on land, summarizes the major results, and identifies the key lessons learned.

We analyze the textures and mineralogy of Merapi tephra generated during explosive VEI 3–4 eruptions over the past 2000 years, and compare these data with those observed for Merapi dome and flow lavas. We find that the Merapi pumiceous tephra and lava textures differ significantly with respect to small-size crystal populations, but that phenocryst textures are generally similar. A similar initial phase of crystallization is indicated for tephras and lavas in mid-crustal (> 10 km depth) reservoirs. Subsequent textural differences are mainly affected by ascent rate and degassing during ascent, and, for dome lavas, with temporary storage in shallower reservoirs. These differences also correspond to different eruptive styles. Our analyses include study of pumices, lava, and breadcrust-bomb samples, including samples from some of the most recent explosive episodes prior to the 2010 eruption. Textural analyses of youthful breadcrust bomb samples yield insights on one type of transition between effusive and explosive eruptive styles, involving pressure build-up under a degassed crystalline shallow-conduit plug. In general, comparison of the crystal size distributions and calculated residence times among the effusive and explosive eruptive styles suggests that the two main magma-product types resided for similar lengths of time in a mid-crustal reservoir, before ascending toward the surface and either erupting explosively (tephra), or stagnating in a shallow magma chamber prior to extrusion (lava). The interpretation is supported by the occurrences of amphibole in pristine condition in tephra and in altered state in lava. Finally the 1872 and 2010 explosive eruptions are examined and compared with others over the past three millennia. The 2010 bulk-rock compositions overlap with products of other major explosive Merapi eruptions, such as the Ngrangkah, Tegalsruni, Temusari, and Kepuharjo tephras. The 2010 products show a gradational late-stage mafic enrichment, dissimilar to 1872 which showed little (

To better understand the volcanic phenomena acting on Montserrat, the SEA-CALIPSO seismic experiment (Seismic Experiment with Airgun-source - Caribbean Andesitic Lava Island Precision Seismo-geodetic Observatory) was conducted in 2007 December with the aim of imaging the upper crust and the magmatic system feeding the active Soufriére Hills Volcano. The 3-D survey covered an area of about 50 × 40 km and involved the deployment of 247 land stations and ocean-bottom seismometers (OBSs). A subset of the data, recorded by four OBSs and four land stations on a southeast to northwest line, has been analysed, and traveltimes have been inverted to obtain a 2-D seismic velocity model through the island. Inverted phases include crustal and sediment P waves and wide-angle reflections. The resulting velocity model reveals the presence of a high velocity body (3.5-5.5 km s-1) beneath the island, with highest velocities beneath the Soufriére and Centre Hills, corresponding primarily to the cores of these volcanic edifices, built of a pile of andesite lava domes and subsequent intrusions. In the offshore region, velocities in the surficial sediment layer vary from 1.5 to 3.0 km s-1, consistent with a mainly calcareous and volcaniclastic composition. A wide-angle reflector is observed at a depth of ∼1200 m below the seabed, and appears to deepen beneath the island. The upper crust beneath this reflector has velocities of 4.0-6.0 km s-1 and is inferred to correspond to plutonic and hypabyssal rocks and sedimentary material of the old arc. The high velocity region beneath the island, extends into the crust to a depth of at least 5 km, and is believed to be caused by an intrusive complex, possibly of intermediate composition. A low velocity zone, as would be expected in the presence of an active magma chamber, was not observed perhaps due to the limited resolution beneath ∼5 km depth. Our results so far provide the first wide-angle seismic constraints on the upper crustal structure of the island to a depth of 10 km, and will help understanding the processes that drive volcanism at Montserrat and other island arc volcanoes. © 2009 The Authors Journal compilation © 2009 RAS.

Strikingly similar examples of edifice collapse and directed blast are the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH), Washington, USA, and the 30 March 1956 eruption of Bezymianny Volcano (BZ), Kamchatka, Russia. In these cases, flank failures led to near-instantaneous decompression and fragmentation of intra-edifice cryptodome magma, which produced catastrophic, laterally directed blasts. In both instances, the blast products consisted of juvenile material with bimodal density/vesicularity distributions: low- and high-density modes at 1900 and 2400 kg m− 3 for BZ, 1600 and 2300 kg m− 3 for MSH, although the proportion of high-density material is greater at BZ. Blast materials also exhibit striking variety in groundmass crystallinity ( 90 vol.%) despite having fairly uniform pheno-crystallinities, suggesting that degassing-driven groundmass crystallization occurred to varying extents within cryptodome magma at both volcanoes. New bulk-rock H2O and ∂D measurements confirm that progressive open-system outgassing occurred prior to both blasts. The correlations between crystallinity, clast density, and bulk H2O contents suggest that syn-blast magma expansion was modulated both by non-uniform volatile distribution within the cryptodome and rheological controls associated with non-uniform crystal content. Spatial heterogeneities in volatiles and crystallinity within a given cryptodome are attributed to distance from the wallrock margin, which probably correlates with timing of magma injection. The greater proportion of high-density material at BZ is speculatively related to lower blast energy compared with MSH.

The transient dynamics of magma ascent during dome-forming eruptions were investigated and the effects of magma chamber pressure perturbations on eruption rate are illustrated. The numerical model DOMEFLOW, developed by the authors for this work, is applied to the problem. DOMEFLOW is a transient 1.5D isothermal two-phase flow model of magma ascent through an axisymmetric conduit of variable radius, which accounts for gas exsolution, bubble growth, crystallization induced by degassing, permeable gas loss through overlying magma and through conduit walls, as well as viscosity changes due to crystallization and degassing. For runs in which chamber pressure increases, the time required to reach the new steady state (transition time) is a complex function of the pressure perturbation, while for decreasing chamber pressure, transition time is a monotonic function of the magnitude of the pressure perturbation. The transition to the new steady state is mainly controlled by magma compressibility, travel time (time required for one parcel of magma to travel from chamber to surface), and the time over which the pressure perturbation occurs. Results of many runs (> 300) were analyzed using dimensional analysis to reveal a general relationship which predicts the temporal evolution of magma effusion rate for a given sudden increase in chamber pressure; the product of the change in steady-state extrusion rate and the time required to reach the new steady state is linearly proportional to the normalized change in chamber pressure, the volume of the conduit, and the ratio of top and bottom conduit radii, and inversely proportional to the cubic root of volatile fraction. This relationship is used to interpret observed variations in two ongoing dome-building eruptions, the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, and Merapi volcano, Indonesia.

A dyke conduit has been shown to be a realistic model for the shallow magmatic feeder system for the dome forming eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Here we use a three-dimensional Finite Element model to examine the ground deformation that can be expected due to the pressurization of a dyke conduit. We find that the generated deformation has a bilateral symmetry with nearly no displacement in the direction of dyke strike, and a maximal ground deformation about 1 km away from the vent in the perpendicular direction. Resultant surface deformation is mainly triggered by the upper part of the feeder system, where the dyke opens into a cylindrical conduit. We apply our deformation model to investigate tilt data collected in 1997 in order to infer the orientation of the dyke. We obtain a best-fit for a NNW–SSE trending dyke, which matches observations of the ground displacement field obtained by differential GPS and the alignment of main structural geologic features of southern Montserrat.

We report on detailed laboratory experiments designed to illustrate the frictional behavior of granular volcanic debris. The materials include pyroclastic flow debris from Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and from Stromboli Volcano, Italy, and lahar deposits from Mount St. Helens. Experiments were conducted in a servo-controlled, double-direct shear apparatus under conditions of displacement-control and with monitored temperature and humidity. The effects of loading velocity, normal stress, grain-size range, and saturation state were examined for normal stresses from 0.75 to 8 MPa. The Soufriere Hills debris was sampled in the field using a 2 mm sieve. Samples from Stromboli and MSH represent the original bulk material. The influence of grain-size and size distribution were examined in detail for the Soufriere Hills material for 1) two narrow size ranges (3–4 /, 0.063–0.125 mm; and 0–1 /, 0.5–1 mm), 2) a wide size range (3–0 /, 0.125–1 mm), and 3) the natural size distribution in the range 0–1 mm. These four data sets show remarkably uniform properties: coefficients of residual internal friction varied from 0.62 to 0.64 and coefficients of peak internal friction varied from 0.66 to 0.69, with zero cohesion in each case. For the natural grain-size distribution, we find a small but clear increase in residual sliding friction with increasing slip velocity in the range 10 to 900 μm/s, i.e. velocity strengthening frictional behavior. For Soufriere Hills pyroclastic material the coefficient of internal friction changes very little when water saturated. The frictional characteristics were remarkably similar for the three volcanoes. For the natural grain-size distributions, the coefficient of residual internal friction ranged from 0.61 to 0.63 and peak internal friction values ranged from 0.65 to 0.66. Pre-loaded and over-compacted materials sheared at reduced normal stress gave peak coefficients as high as 0.80. Our results imply that granular volcanic debris should often fail via stable creep, but may exhibit stick-slip instability under some conditions. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Styles of dome collapse at Soufriere Hills volcano (SHV; November 1995–March 1998) are classified by relations between extrusion rate prior to collapse and collapse volume. Four separate modes of collapse behavior are apparent. Notably, moderate rates of extrusion are shown to result in two disparate modes of collapse: small-to-large collapses on steeply inclined failure planes that switch to collapse volumes an order of magnitude larger that cut deeply into the dome core. For constant effusion rates, this bifurcation in behavior is explained by the monotonic growth of a soft core that ultimately promotes the development of a deep-seated failure over previously favored shallow failure modes. Models are developed to test this hypothesis that first constrain magnitudes of cohesive and frictional strength with observed dome collapse morphologies and volumes. Evaluations of dome strengths confirm the important role of a soft core in promoting deep failure. A nested model representing a cohesive dome core, surrounded by a frictional rind, with constant rate of magma input, confirms the observed bifurcation in behavior, and for invariant effusive activity. Importantly, failure volumes are shown to increase by close to an order of magnitude for a few percent change in the proportion of dome core comprising cohesive material. This model is capable of replicating, a posteriori, the approximate timing of failure for both small (250 m) and large (325 m) domes. The timing and style of the 17 September 1996 and June to November 1997 collapses are honored.

Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) represent a formidable challenge for volcanology. This is true in terms of scientific understanding of their dynamics, and also in terms of assessment of their hazard and risk. These phenomena occurred in the famous, lethal 79 AD Pompeii eruption of Mt. Vesuvius, although recognition in “modern” times dates from observations made in 1902 at Montagne Pelee. Major progress in understanding has developed in the last few decades, due both to direct observations and improved modeling capability. Currently, PDC generation and propagation mechanisms are deeply investigated by field reconstructions, and also via detailed experimental and modeling studies. In this chapter we review the current status of knowledge on the dynamics of PDCs, and highlight the key processes and impacts as revealed by recent eruptive events. Some current approaches and modeling studies aimed at PDC hazard assessment are then illustrated, with specific reference to short-to-medium term hazard assessments carried out at the Soufriere Hills volcano at Montserrat (West Indies, UK), and to long-term assessments at the high-risk Vesuvius volcano and Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). We conclude this review with remarks on the current and evolving state of knowledge of this dangerous volcanic phenomenon, and implications on the challenges for hazards mitigation. Significant limitations exist in our current ability to accurately forecast zones at risk from some PDCs, and in practice, hazard evaluations require cautious good judgment and not over-reliance on computations based on oversimplified algorithms and inputs.

During the 1995 to 1998 phase of dome growth at Soufriere Hills Volcano on Montserrat, we documented instability of the steep southern rim of English9s Crater, known as Galway9s Wall. The horseshoe-shaped English9s Crater provided good evidence for previous sector collapses, and assessments undertaken in late 1996 anticipated the possibility of a partial sector collapse and a SW-directed explosion, hazards previously unrecognized on Montserrat. A change from predominantly endogenous to exogenous growth of the lava dome at the end of 1996 eased the stress on the southern sector. However, rapid dome growth in November and December 1997 led to severe reloading and eventual sector failure at the base of the buried Galway9s Wall and in the adjacent hot-spring area. This failure resulted in the debris avalanche and lateral blast of 26 December 1997. Similar sector collapses at a number of small volcanoes in the Caribbean, as well as worldwide, are evidence that edifice instability develops commonly in dome-forming eruptions. The hazards from a sector collapse and a consequent lateral blast are extreme, and monitoring operations and disaster planning at such volcanoes should focus on these, as well as on the more common hazards of conventional pyroclastic flows associated with dome growth.

Dome growth at Soufriere Hills Volcano halted in early March 1998. After dome growth ceased, seismicity reduced significantly, but activity related to dome disintegration and degassing of magma at depth continued. A sustained episode of pyroclastic flows on 3 July 1998 marked the single largest collapse from March 1998 to November 1999. This led to a remarkable episode of dome collapses, low-energy explosions and ash-venting that resulted in the regular production of ash plumes, commonly reaching 1.5-6 km above sea level (a.s.l), but sometimes up to 11 km a.s.l., and the development of a small block-and-ash cone around the explosion crater. During the period of this residual activity, higher levels of activity occurred approximately every five to six weeks. This periodicity was similar to the cycles observed during active dome growth during 1995 to 1998, and probably had a similar cause. The relatively high level of observed activity caused continued concern regarding volcanic hazards and their potential to impact upon the resident population. Vigorous magma extrusion resumed in November 1999. The activity of the intervening period is attributed to the continued cooling and degassing of the dome, conduit and deep magma body, the impact of rising volcanic gases in the volcanic edifice, and limited magma flow in the conduit.

In 1997 Soufriere Hills Volcano on Montserrat produced 88 Vulcanian explosions: 13 between 4 and 12 August and 75 between 22 September and 21 October. Each episode was preceded by a large dome collapse that decompressed the conduit and led to the conditions for explosive fragmentation. The explosions, which occurred at intervals of 2.5 to 63 hours, with a mean of 10 hours, were transient events, with an initial high-intensity phase lasting a few tens of seconds and a lower-intensity, waning phase lasting 1 to 3 hours. In all but one explosion, fountain collapse during the first 10-20 seconds generated pyroclastic surges that swept out to 1-2 km before lofting, as well as high-concentration pumiceous pyroclastic flows that travelled up to 6 km down all major drainages around the dome. Buoyant plumes ascended 3-15 km into the atmosphere, where they spread out as umbrella clouds. Most umbrella clouds were blown to the north or NW by high-level (8-18 km) winds, whereas the lower, waning plumes were dispersed to the west or NW by low-level ( 1 and ballistic blocks were thrown as far as 1.7 km from the dome. Each explosion discharged on average 3 x 10 5 m 3 of magma, about one-third forming fallout and two-thirds forming pyroclastic flows and surges, and emptied the conduit to a depth of 0.5-2 km or more. Two overlapping components were distinguished in the explosion seismic signals: a low-frequency (c. 1 Hz) one due to the explosion itself, and a high-frequency (>2 Hz) one due to fountain collapse, ballistic impact and pyroclastic flow. In many explosions a delay between the explosion onset and start of the pyroclastic flow signal (typically 10-20 seconds) recorded the time necessary for ballistics and the collapsing fountain to hit the ground. The explosions in August were accompanied by cyclic patterns of seismicity and edifice deformation due to repeated pressurization of the upper conduit. The angular, tabular forms of many fallout pumices show that they preserve vesicularities and shapes acquired upon fragmentation, and suggest that the explosions were driven by brittle fragmentation of overpressured magmatic foam with at least 55 vol% bubbles present in the upper conduit prior to each event.

Between 3 January 1996 and 1 December 1998 at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, there were 27150 seismic signals attributable to rockfalls and pyroclastic flows. Large (1-4 x 10 6 m 3 ) and major (>4 x 10 6 m 3 ) dome collapses began to occur after the extrusion rate reached 2 m 3 s -1 and the lava dome exceeded 30 x 10 6 m 3 in volume. Large to major collapses occurred on 26 occasions and were usually associated with periods of elevated extrusion rate (6 13 m 3 s -1 ), intense hybrid earthquake swarms and/or inflation-deflation cycles of crater-rim ground deformation. During these cycles, gas-rich pulses of magma, 140 000 320 000 m 3 in volume, were intruded into the dome and, soon thereafter, dome collapses from the headwalls of shear lobes were generated. Large dome collapses also occurred after 10 March 1998, when magma extrusion ceased, but these had no seismic precursors. These events represent structural failures from over steepened canyon-like walls and were followed by intense degassing, suggesting that gas pressure build-up within the relict dome may have played some role. Rockfall counts and durations established from seismic data show variations that correlate with extrusion rate. Using pyroclastic flow runout and rockfall duration data as proxies for event magnitude, power law relationships between frequency (total number of events) and magnitude have been found. Seismic signals associated with rockfalls and pyroclastic flows commonly comprise both high-frequency and long-period components. Intense degassing from the dome is interpreted as the source for the long-period component. These results indicate that rockfalls and pyroclastic flows generated by dome collapse at Montserrat are not simply the result of passive dome failure, but are intimately related to discharge of pressurized gas and pulses of magma extrusion. Pyroclastic flows were usually sourced from lobe headwalls, where lava was hot and gas-rich and where fragmentation of the micro vesicular andesite lava occurred more readily.

This paper presents numerical models of the Vulcanian explosions that occurred in 1997 at Soufriere Hills Volcano. Plume evolution and velocities were calculated for the well-documented and typical explosions of 6 and 7 August 1997, and these data and other observations were compared to transient, axisymmetric, multiphase flow simulations of coupled conduit evacuation and pyroclastic dispersal. Pre-explosion conduit conditions were estimated from Montserrat data, using a simple gas solubility law and assuming that conduit magma flow had stagnated with a constant overpressure prior to the explosions. Reference simulation input parameters include conduit diameter of 30 m, crater diameter of 300 m, meltwater content of 4.3±0.5°, grain sizes of 30, 2000 and 5000 µm, and conduit overpressure of l0MPa. The numerical simulations of the explosions resolved highly unsteady vent exit conditions such as velocity, pressure and mass flux, and the spatial and temporal dispersal of pyroclasts during the initial few minutes was investigated using one gas phase and two or three solid phases representing pyroclasts of different size. Our simulations produced transitional eruptive regime behaviour, dividing the erupted mass into a portion that generated a radial pyroclastic current fed by a collapsing column, and a convective portion that generated a buoyant plume. This behaviour generally mimicked the observed explosions. The movement of different particle sizes was tracked, with fine particles dominantly influencing the convective behaviour of the central plume and ash plume thermals generated above the pyroclastic currents. Simulated initial vent velocities ranged from 85 to 120ms -1 , collapse heights ranged from 450 to 1370 m above the vent, initial pyroclastic current velocities ranged from 40 to 60 ms -1 with surge runouts to 1.8 km, drawdown depths in the conduit were a few hundred metres, and simulated pyroclastic current deposit temperatures ranged between 135 and 430°C. Subsets of these results are in reasonable agreement with observed and measured parameters of the 1997 explosions. The best match was intermediate between our reference simulation, which assumed no loss of volatiles from the conduit during rise from the magma reservoir and which appeared too energetic, and another simulation in which much volatile leakage was assumed. The results suggest that volatile depletion in the conduit was an important factor in influencing the dynamic behaviour of the Vulcanian explosions on Montserrat.

Emplacement of a debris avalanche in the White River valley of southern Montserrat (Lesser Antilles), on 26 December 1997, was caused by sector failure of the south flank of the active Soufriere Hills volcano. Pre- and post-emplacement surveys of the region indicate a debris avalanche deposit volume of about 40–50 × 106 m³. This avalanche is modeled as the gravitational flow of a homogeneous continuum governed by a basal friction law. Mass and momentum equations are depth-averaged over the slide thickness. Numerical results show that the observed distribution of debris and duration of emplacement is simulated well for a Coulomb-type friction law with a dynamic friction coefficient dependent upon the thickness and the velocity of the flowing mass.

During the sequential dome collapse of Merapi Volcano on 22 November 1994, a broadband seismic station on the western slope was the only operational seismic equipment that provided continuous on-scale recording of the event. According to visual and seismic observations, the collapse activity lasted about 10 h. We divide the activity into two phases: (I) a period with fluctuating but generally increasing seismic activity associated with 24 moderate to large dome-collapse nuees ardentes, lasting about 40 min and culminating with the largest event at 10:54 (all times reported as local time); and (II) activity from 11:42 until 20:00 described by scattered clusters of individual rockfalls and 20 nuees ardentes. The broadband data were evaluated using the assumption that avalanches with the same source areas and descent paths exhibit a linear relation between source volume and recorded seismic-amplitude envelope area. A result of the analysis is the determination of the volume of selected individual events. From the field surveys, the total volume of the collapsed dome lava is 2.6 Mm3. Discounting the volumetric influence of rockfalls, the average size of the 44 nuees ardentes is therefore about 60,000 m3. The largest collapse event at 10:54 is estimated to involve 260,000 m3, based on an analysis of the seismicity. The remaining 23 phase I events averaged 60,000 m3, with the total volume of all phase I events accounting for 63% of the unstable dome. The 20 phase II events comprised 37% of the total volume and averaged 47,000 m3. The methods described here can be put to practical use in real-time monitoring situations. Broadband data were essential in this study primarily because of the wide dynamic range.

A study of emplacement temperatures was carried out for the largest of the 22 November 1994 nuee ardente deposits at Merapi Volcano, based mainly on the response of plastic and woody materials subjected to the hot pyroclastic current and the deposits, and to some extent on eyewitness observations. The study emphasizes the Turgo–Kaliurang area in the distal part of the area affected by the nuee ardente, where nearly 100 casualties occurred. The term nuee ardente as used here includes channeled block-and-ash flows, and associated ash-clouds of surge and fallout origins. The emplacement temperature of the 8 m thick channeled block-and-ash deposit was relatively high, ∼550°C, based mainly on eyewitness reports of visual thermal radiance. Emplacement temperatures for ash-cloud deposits a few cm thick were deduced from polymer objects collected at Turgo and Kaliurang. Most polymers do not display a sharp melting range, but polyethylene terephthalate used in water bottles melts between 245 and 265°C, and parts of the bottles that had been deformed during fabrication molding turn a milky color at 200°C. The experimental evidence suggests that deposits in the Turgo area briefly achieved a maximum temperature near 300°C, whereas those near Kaliurang were

Multiphase (MP) and low frequency (LF) earthquakes with spectral peak amplitudes at 3–4 and 1 Hz, respectively, are two common types of shallow volcanic earthquakes previously recognized at Merapi Volcano. Their mechanisms are poorly understood but MPs have been temporally associated with lava dome growth. We conducted a seismic experiment in January–February 1998, using four broadband seismographs to investigate the nature of seismic activity associated with dome growth. During our experiment, Merapi experienced mild dome growth with low-level seismic activity. We compare our data to that recorded on a local short-period (SP) network, with the following preliminary results. MP and LF events as recorded and classified on the short-period network instruments were recognized on the broadband network. Frequency spectrograms revealed similar patterns in the near summit region at widely separated broadband stations. Higher frequency spectra than previously recognized were identified for both MP and LF events, and were strongly attenuated as a function of radial distance from the source. Thus the spectral characteristics of these events as recorded on far-field stations are not fully indicative of the source processes. In particular, many events classified as LF-type appear to have much high frequency energy near the source. This aspect of these so-called LF earthquakes, and their association with very-long-period (VLP) pulses, suggests that many events identified in the far-field as LF events are in actuality a variety of the MP event and involve similar source processes. Broadband records indicated that simple large-amplitude VLP pulses were embedded in MP and LF wavetrains. From event to event these pulses were similar in their waveforms and had periods of 4 s. VLP events embedded in LF and MP earthquakes were located using particle motions. The epicenters were clustered in a central region of the dome complex, and preliminary source depths were within about 100 m of the dome surface, suggesting a source region deep within the dome or the uppermost conduit. A similar source location was established by study of MP high-frequency onsets. Our broadband data suggests that we have recorded both elastic seismic waves and a simple embedded pulse that is interpreted to represent a surface tilt at the seismometer site. The inferred tilt indicates an inflation and subsequent deflation, possibly caused by a gas pressure pulse or episodic shallow magma transport with stick-slip movement of the conduit wall.

Information on Merapi eruptive activity is scattered and much is remotely located. A concise and well-documented summary of this activity has been long needed to assist researchers and hazard-mitigation efforts, and the aim of this paper is to synthesize information from the mid-1700s to the present. A descriptive chronology is given, with an abbreviated chronology in a table that summarizes events by year, assigns preliminary Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ratings and Hartmann classifications, and provides key references. The history of volcano monitoring is also outlined. The study reveals that a major difference in eruption style exists between the twentieth and nineteenth centuries, although the periodicity between larger events seems about the same. During the twentieth century, activity has comprised mainly the effusive growth of viscous lava domes and lava tongues, with occasional gravitational collapses of parts of oversteepened domes to produce the nuees ardentes—commonly defined as “Merapi-type”. In the 1800s, however, explosive eruptions of relatively large size occurred (to VEI 4), and some associated “fountain-collapse” nuees ardentes were larger and farther reaching than any produced in the twentieth century. These events may also be regarded as typical eruptions for Merapi. The nineteenth century activity is consistent with the long-term pattern of one relatively large event every one or two centuries, based on the long-term eruptive record deduced by others from volcanic stratigraphy. It is uncertain whether or not a “recurrence-time” model continues to apply to Merapi, but if so, Merapi could soon be due for another large event and its occurrence with only modest (or inadequately appreciated) precursors could lead to a disaster unprecedented in Merapi's history because the area around the volcano is now much more densely populated.

Following the eruption of January 1992, episodes of lava dome growth accompanied by generation of dome-collapse nuees ardentes occurred in 1994–1998. In addition, nuees ardentes were generated by fountain-collapse in January 1997, and the 1998 events also suggest an explosive component. Significant tilt and seismic precursors on varying time scales preceded these events. Deformation about the summit has been detected by electronic tiltmeters since November 1992, with inflation corresponding generally to lava dome growth, and deflation (or decreased inflation) corresponding to loss of dome mass. Strong short-term (days to weeks) accelerations in tilt rate and seismicity occurred prior to the major nuees ardentes episodes, apart from those of 22 November 1994 which were preceded by steadily increasing tilt for over 200 days but lacked short-term precursors. Because of the combination of populated hazardous areas and the lack of an issued warning, about 100 casualties occurred in 1994. In contrast, the strong precursors in 1997 and 1998 provided advance warning to observatory scientists, enabled the stepped raising of alert levels, and aided hazard management. As a result of these factors, but also the fortunate fact that the large nuees ardentes did not quite descend into populated areas, no casualties occurred. The nuee ardente episode of 1994 is interpreted as purely due to gravitational collapse, whereas those of 1997 and 1998 were influenced by gas-pressurization of the lava dome.

Edifice deformations are reported here for the period 1988–1995 at Merapi volcano, one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes in Indonesia. The study period includes a major resumption in lava effusion in January 1992 and a major dome collapse in November 1994. The data comprise electronic distance measurements (EDM) on a summit trilateration network, slope distance changes measured to the upper flanks, and other data collected from 1988 to 1995. A major consequence of this study is the documentation of a significant 4-year period of deformation precursory to the 1992 eruption. Cross-crater strain rates accelerated from less than 3×10 −6 /day between 1988 and 1990 to more than 11×10 −6 /day just prior to the January 1992 activity, representing a general, asymmetric extension of the summit during high-level conduit pressurization. After the vent opened and effusion of lava resumed, strain occurred at a much-reduced rate of less than 2×10 −6 /day. EDM measurements between lower flank benchmarks and the upper edifice indicate displacements as great as 1 m per year over the four years before the 1992 eruption. The Gendol breach, a pronounced depression formed by the juxtaposition of old lava coulees on the southeast flank, functioned as a major displacement discontinuity. Since 1993, movements have generally not exceeded the 95% confidence limits of the summit network. Exceptions to this include 12 cm outward movement for the northwest crater rim in 1992–1993, probably from loading by newly erupted dome lava, and movements as much as 7 cm on the south flank between November 1994 and September 1995. No short-term precursors were noted before the November 1994 lava dome collapse, but long-term adjustments of crater geometry accompanied lava dome growth in 1994. Short-term 2-cm deflation of the edifice occurred following the November 1994 dome collapse.

Slope failures resulting from structural instability of andesitic volcanic edifices can generate mobile debris avalanches that travel long distances down or beyond the flanks of volcanoes. More than 20 major slope failures have occurred worldwide over the past 500 years, a rate exceeding that of caldera collapse. Hazards derive from the debris avalanches themselves, from associated explosive activity that ranges from vertical eruptions (often accompanied by pyroclastic currents) to devastating directed blasts, from associated lahars, and from tsunamis. Collapses of growing lava domes are more frequent, are similar, in many ways, to edifice collapse, and can directly generate devastating pyroclastic currents. This paper examines some aspects of current understanding of edifice and lavadome instability. The primary focus of the presentation is on mechanisms and factors associated with collapse, the geometric factors, augmented loading by magma, localized strength reduction by physical and chemical changes (the latter commonly associated with hydrothermal processes), strain weakening, pore-fluid (water or gas) pressure enhancement, retrogressive failure, time-dependent failure, and seismic shaking. Some aspects of material property evaluation, analysis procedures, and implications on monitoring are also discussed. Case examples discussed include edifice instability at Mt St Helens, USA, and Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, the stability of lava spines at Mont Pelee, Martinique, and Lamington, Papua New Guinea, and lavadome stability at Soufriere Hills. The topics bear on understanding hazardous edifice and dome failures, and the measures to anticipate such failures.

Investigation of well-exposed volcaniclastic deposits of Shiveluch volcano indicates that large-scale failures have occurred at least eight times in its history: approximately 10,000, 5700, 3700, 2600, 1600, 1000, 600 14 C BP and 1964 AD. The volcano was stable during the Late Pleistocene, when a large cone was formed (Old Shiveluch), and became unstable in the Holocene when repetitive collapses of a portion of the edifice (Young Shiveluch) generated debris avalanches. The transition in stability was connected with a change in composition of the erupting magma (increased SiO2 from ca. 55-56% to 60-62%) that resulted in an abrupt increase of viscosity and the production of lava domes. Each failure was triggered by a disturbance of the vol- canic edifice related to the ascent of a new batch of vis- cous magma. The failures occurred before magma in- truded into the upper part of the edifice, suggesting that the trigger mechanism was indirectly associated with magma and involved shaking by a moderate to large volcanic earthquake and/or enhancement of edif- ice pore pressure due to pressurised juvenile gas. The failures typically included: (a) a retrogressive landslide involving backward rotation of slide blocks; (b) frag- mentation of the leading blocks and their transforma- tion into a debris avalanche, while the trailing slide blocks decelerate and soon come to rest; and (c) long- distance runout of the avalanche as a transient wave of debris with yield strength that glides on a thin weak layer of mixed facies developed at the avalanche base. All the failures of Young Shiveluch were immediately followed by explosive eruptions that developed along a similar pattern. The slope failure was the first event, followed by a plinian eruption accompanied by partial fountain collapse and the emplacement of pumice flows. In several cases the slope failure depressurised the hydrothermal system to cause phreatic explosions that preceded the magmatic eruption. The collapse-in- duced plinian eruptions were moderate-sized and ordi- nary events in the history of the volcano. No evidence for directed blasts was found associated with any of the slope failures.

Volcanic eruptions are episodic despite being supplied by melt at a nearly constant rate. We used histories of magma efflux and surface deformation to geodetically image magma transfer within the deep crustal plumbing of the Soufrière Hills volcano on Montserrat, West Indies. For three cycles of effusion followed by discrete pauses, supply of the system from the deep crust and mantle was continuous. During periods of reinitiated high surface efflux, magma rose quickly and synchronously from a deflating mid-crustal reservoir (at about 12 kilometers) augmented from depth. During repose, the lower reservoir refilled from the deep supply, with only minor discharge transiting the upper chamber to surface. These observations are consistent with a model involving the continuous supply of magma from the deep crust and mantle into a voluminous and compliant mid-crustal reservoir, episodically valved below a shallow reservoir (at about 6 kilometers).

Breakout of magmatic activity at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, was preceded by a tenfold increase in rate of earthquake occurrence. A new model of subcritical rock failure shows that this increase is consistent with the growth, possibly episodic, of the magma conduit at a rate controlled by progressive weakening of the host country rock. The preferred weakening mechanism is stress corrosion, by which circulating juvenile and hydrothermal fluids chemically attack the country rock and promote failure at stresses smaller than the rock's theoretical strength. The results illuminate the potential for slow-cracking models to enhance eruption forecasts using the inverse-rate technique combined with traditional monitoring methods.

Telemetered high-resolution tiltmeters were installed in Montserrat in summer of 1995, in December 1996, and in May 1997. The 1995 installations, several km from the Soufriere Hills vent, were too distant to yield useful data. However, the 1996 and 1997 installations on the crater rim revealed 6–14 h inflation cycles caused by magma pressurization at shallow depths (< 0.6 km below the base of dome). The tilt data correlated with seismicity, explosions, and pyroclastic flow activity, and were used to forecast times of increased volcanic hazard to protect scientific field workers and the general public.

Varied seismicity has accompanied growth and collapse of the lava dome of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Earthquakes have been classified as either volcano-tectonic, long-period or hybrid, and daily variations in the numbers of events have mapped changes in the style of eruption. Repetitive hybrid earthquakes were common during the first months of dome growth. In July 1996 the style of seismicity changed and regular, short-lived hybrid earthquake swarms became common. This change was probably caused by an increase in the magma flux. Earthquake swarms have preceded almost all major dome collapses, and have accompanied cyclical deformation, thought to be due to a build-up of pressure in the upper conduit which is later released by magma moving into the dome.

IODP Expedition 340 successfully drilled a series of sites offshore Montserrat, Martinique and Dominica in the Lesser Antilles from March to April 2012. These are among the few drill sites gathered around volcanic islands, and the first scientific drilling of large and likely tsunamigenic volcanic island-arc landslide deposits. These cores provide evidence and tests of previous hypotheses for the composition and origin of those deposits. Sites U1394, U1399, and U1400 that penetrated landslide deposits recovered exclusively seafloor-sediment, comprising mainly turbidites and hemipelagic deposits, and lacked debris avalanche deposits. This supports the concepts that i/ volcanic debris avalanches tend to stop at the slope break, and ii/ widespread and voluminous failures of pre-existing low-gradient seafloor sediment can be triggered by initial emplacement of material from the volcano. Offshore Martinique (U1399 and 1400), the landslide deposits comprised blocks of parallel strata that were tilted or micro-faulted, sometimes separated by intervals of homogenized sediment (intense shearing), while Site U1394 offshore Montserrat penetrated a flat-lying block of intact strata. The most likely mechanism for generating these large-scale seafloor-sediment failures appears to be propagation of a decollement from proximal areas loaded and incised by a volcanic debris avalanche. These results have implications for the magnitude of tsunami generation. Under some conditions, volcanic island landslide deposits comprised of mainly seafloor sediment will tend to form smaller magnitude tsunamis than equivalent volumes of subaerial block-rich mass flows rapidly entering water. Expedition 340 also successfully drilled sites to access the undisturbed record of eruption fallout layers intercalated with marine sediment which provide an outstanding high-resolution dataset to analyze eruption and landslides cycles, improve understanding of magmatic evolution as well as offshore sedimentation processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Magmatic intrusions can initiate and sustain massive and catastrophic volcano collapse. Their role is twofold, involving both driving and resisting forces. First, flank stability is diminished by magmastatic and magma overpressures, and steepened slopes, that accompany intrusion. Second, excess pore pressures in potential failure zones can be generated as a result of intrusion-related mechanical or thermal straining of the rock-fluid medium, pressurized retrograde boiling in high level magma chambers, or hydrothermal fluid circulation. Also, earthquakes may aid collapse through inertial forces and shaking-induced pore pressure generation. These excess pore pressures reduce the sliding resistance, as shown for wedge-shaped slide blocks for selected cases. The destabilizing influence of mechanically induced pore pressures is maximized as the intruded width, or corresponding overpressure, of the intrusion is increased. The destabilizing influence of thermally induced pore pressures is conditioned by the severity of thermal forcing, ratios of thermal and hydraulic diffusivities, and the time required for the fluid pressure disturbance to propagate outwards from the intrusion. Retrograde boiling and hydrothermal circulation overpressure mechanisms may be evaluated by similar models. Failure initiation does not imply sustained failure; in some cases, enhancement of pore pressures through deviatoric shearing, frictional heating, or runout over compressible saturated alluvium or marine sediments may be necessary following slide initiation to maintain the impetus of flank failure for long runout. Models are examined for oceanic volcanoes of shallow flank inclination and for terrestrial composite volcanoes with considerably steeper flanks. Les intrusions magmatiques peuvent provoquer et entretenir l'effondrement massif et catastro-phique d'un volcan. Elles le font en faisant intervenir à la fois des forces d'entraînement et des forces de résistance. Pour commencer, les surpressions magmastatiques et magmatiques et l'accentuation des pentes qui accompagnent l'intrusion réduisent la stabilitè des versants. Deuxièmement, la pression des pores pent devenir excessive dans les zones d'effondrement potentiel sous l'effet des contraintes mécaniques ou thermiques imposées au milieu roche-fluide par l'intrusion, du bouillonnement rétrograde sous pression dans les réservoirs de magma de haut niveau, ou de la circulation du liquide hydrothermal. Les séismes peuvent, eux aussi, contribuer à l'effondrement en produisant des forces d'inerde et des secousses qui font augmenter la pression des pores. L'excès de pression réduit la résistance au glissement, comme le montrent les exemples de blocs de glissement en coin illustrés dans Particle. Plus l'intrusion est large ou plus la surpression correspondante est forte, plus Paugmentation mécanique de la pression des pores a un effet déstabilisant. L'effet déstabilisant de Paugmentation thermique de la pression des pores dépend de l'importance du refoulement thermique, des ratios de diffusivité thermique et hydraulique, et du temps de propagation de Paugmentation de pression. On pent utiliser des modéles semblables pour évaluer le bouillonnement rétrograde et les mécanismes de surpression de la circulation hydrothermale. L'amorce d'un effondrement n'est pas nécessairement suivie d'un effondrement entretenu: dans certains cas, Peffondrement des versants, une foisamorcé, ne pent se poursuivre que si la pression des pores augmente sous Peffet d'un cisaillement déviateur, d'un réchauffement produit par frottement, ou d'un écoulement sur des alluvions ou des sédiments marins saturés et compressibles. Let auteurs examinent des modèles pour des volcans océaniques à pentes faibles et pour des volcans terrestres composites à versants bien plus raides.

The complex 1980 Mount St. Helens debris avalanche is modeled numerically as a transient biviscous fluid flow. Several approaches are considered, including two-step rheologically-distinct models for avalanche I and combined avalanches II/III, and a composite flow model consisting of retrogressive slides of identical rheology successively accreted to the main avalanche flow. For the two-step situation, flow rheologies are evaluated separately for the initial avalanche, comprising the debris avalanche block facies, and an ensuing explosive-influenced flow. Strengths (normalized by density) as high as 250 m2/s2 and apparent Newtonian viscosities as much as 275 m2/s were established for the block facies. These parameters for the explosively-influenced flow are an order of magnitude lower. The distribution of stratigraphic units within flowing model debris, compared with field distributions, suggests that the higher-strength emplacement models are appropriate for debris deposited on Johnston Ridge and in the upper parts and flanks of the North Fork Toutle River valley. In general, models for which constant rheology is assumed throughout the flow process provide lower-bound emplacement times, and excessive early velocities, as compared to the prototype event. Because model calibration is based on matching runout by trial and error, it is therefore biased toward the rheologic parameters essential to achieving that runout. These values characterize the flow in its latter stages, whereas the actual strength and viscosity may have substantially decreased as a function of displacement. Two-dimensional models predict debris accumulation about twice as thick as that observed at the foot of Mount St. Helens, where flow divergence was significant. This discrepancy is lessened with a quasi-three-dimensional modification of the flow model. Accretionary composite flow models with homogeneous rheology simulate the overriding of early avalanche debris by later debris pulses. The accretionary composite model also predicts a thick flow snout down-valley. Since this feature is not indicated in the debris deposit, the model lends support to the concept of flow separation by rheology. The two-step and accretionary composite flow models complement one another and provide model-based support for the Harry Glicken hypothesis for complex emplacement at Mount St. Helens.

Pore fluid pressures induced through dike intrusion have the capability to trigger large earthquakes and to initiate and sustain massive and catastrophic failure of volcano flanks. Suprahydrostatic pore pressures are generated as a result of both mechanical and thermal straining of the rock-fluid medium. Mechanical strains and resulting pore pressures are described using an analogy to a moving volumetric dilation within a porous elastic medium. Thermal pore fluid pressures are simply represented by a static diffusive model subjected to uniform temperature rise at the dike interface. Resulting excess pore pressure distributions acting along the base of a wedge-shaped slide block are used to define the stability of the flanks when subjected to the magma pressures that accompany intrusion. The destabilizing influence of mechanically induced pore pressures is maximized as the intruded width, or corresponding overpressure, of the dike is increased. For realistic parameter magnitudes in volcaniclastic materials, induced pore pressures are capable of initiating failure; however, the mechanical influence is restricted to the proximity of the intrusion, and by itself may not be capable of sustaining sliding motion once it is initiated. The destabilizing influence of thermally induced pore pressures is conditioned by the severity of thermal forcing, ratios of thermal and hydraulic diffusivities, and the time available for the combined thermal and pressure disturbance to propagate outward from the dike. Thermal pressurization of pore fluid extends more slowly than mechanical straining but is shown to be capable of developing massive uplift forces that could initiate and possibly sustain failure along downslope-dipping failure planes. Deviatoric stress-induced generation of pore pressures and frictional heating of pore fluids may act following slide initiation to maintain the impetus of flank failure and enable long runout over compressible marine sediments. In addition to the development of shallow failure, limited deep-seated sliding may also result from the mechanical or thermal pore pressure loading mechanisms. In addition, pore pressures generated through intrusion or frictional heating may trigger, or amplify, large earthquakes, and these in turn may aid shallower flank slip through seismic ground accelerations and vibration-induced pore pressure generation. These phenomenological models of pore pressure rise and stability control may aid comprehension of the cyclic growth, lateral expansion, and subsequent destruction of shield and stratovolcano flanks. Examples in this work refer particularly to oceanic volcanoes typified by the Hawaiian Islands and Reunion Island.

It is widely believed that andesitic magmas erupted at arc-volcanoes are stored in shallow reservoirs prior to eruption, but high-resolution images of focused regions of magma in the shallow crust are rare. We integrate seismic tomography with numerical models of magma chamber growth to constrain the magma chamber beneath Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Our approach reveals the characteristics and dynamics of the magmatic system with a level of detail that no single method has yet achieved. The integrated analysis suggests that a magma chamber of 13 km3 with over 30% melt fraction formed between 5.5 and at least 7.5 km depth, a significantly higher melt fraction than inferred from the seismic data alone. The magma chamber may have formed by incremental sill intrusion over a few thousand years and is likely to be a transient, geologically short-lived feature. These volume and geometry estimates are critical parameters to model eruption dynamics, which in turn are key to hazard assessment and eruption forecasting.

Long undersea debris runout can be facilitated by a boundary layer formed by weak marine sediments under a moving slide mass. Undrained loading of such offshore sediment results in a profound drop of basal shear resistance, compared to subaerial shear resistance, enabling long undersea runout. Thus large long-runout submarine landslides are not truly enigmatic (Voight and Elsworth 1992, 1997), but are understandable in terms of conventional geotechnical principles. A corollary is that remoulded undrained strength, and not friction angle, should be used for basal resistance in numerical simulations. This hypothesis is testable via drilling and examining the structure at the soles of undersea debris avalanches for indications of incorporation of sheared marine sediments, by tests of soil properties, and by simulations. Such considerations of emplacement process are an aim of ongoing research in the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean Sea), where multiple offshore debris avalanche and dome-collapse debris deposits have been identified since 1999 on swath bathymetric surveys collected in five oceanographic cruises. This paper reviews the prehistoric and historic collapses that have occurred offshore of Antilles arc islands and summarizes ongoing research on emplacement processes.

Benchmarks installed on the upper eastern flank of Mt. Etna in 1982 have subsided continually since then, with the rate of subsidence twice accelerating prior to eruptions. The first of these eruptions was in December 1985, and the second in September 1989. This pattern of accelerating downslope movement has also been observed prior to landslides, and recent work applying knowledge of the failure of materials has shown that analysis of the inverse rate of these movements can be used to predict the time of failure. Post-eruption analyses of geodetic or seismic data from volcanoes has shown that in several cases, this approach could have been used to forecast eruptions weeks in advance. Applying the same principles to the accelerating subsidence on Mt. Etna's eastern flank prior to the eruptions of 1985 and 1989 shows that rough estimates of eruption dates could have been obtained several months in advance. These observations also suggest a speculative eruption-triggering mechanism involving an interplay between slope creep deformation and extensional weakening over the zone of intrusion.

Seismic activity during the December 1989 to April 1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, has been tracked by the Alaska Volcano Observatory using Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM) and Seismic Spectral Amplitude Measurement (SSAM) systems with up to five stations. Data consist of 10-minute averages of the absolute amplitudes of seismometer output. These data have been used to test in hindsight the Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM), which attempts to define the time of eruption with a time series for precursory phenomena whose rate of change accelerates measurably before events. Practical application of the method emphasizes inverse-rate plots, both for early detection of signal emergent from background, and for event forecasting. Eruption windows are determined by graphical or numerical extrapolation of the inverse-rate trend and by intersection of a data envelope, reflecting data scatter and consistency, with an empirical critical rate near the time of eruption. Prior to the dome-destroying eruption of January 2, rate changes were of sufficient consistency, duration, and intensity for a qualitative or quantitative FFM predictive analysis, using either RSAM or SSAM. Signal-to-noise ratio was high for both RSAM or SSAM data sets, and FFM analyses could have provided useful support for decision making. Following January 2, in association with a rapid succession of dome-collapse eruptions, signal strength diminished and RSAM signal-to-noise ratio declined. The most distinct patterns on RSAM reflected noise rather than signal, and forecasting exclusively based for RSAM would have been misleading. By eliminating the noise in excluded frequencies, an enhanced signal-to-noise ratio was generally produced by SSAM for banded frequencies near 2 Hz. After January 2, only SSAM exhibited signal-to-noise ratios suitable for FFM analysis. Inverse-SSAM plots could have been informative for early detection of precursory long-period seismicity. The prospect of combining the FFM approach with spectral amplitudes in selected frequencies offers considerable promise.

[1] We use time-series of magma efflux and GPS-derived surface deformation observations to constrain the transfer of compressible magma within the crustal plumbing of the Soufriere Hills volcano for three cycles of effusion and pause. Our system model has two vertically-stacked spherical chambers. Deep melt supply to the system is constrained to be continuous and steady, yielding a rate of 1.2 m3/s, which fixes the geometry of the dual interconnected chambers to depths of about 5 and 19 km. The eruptive volume change of the shallow chamber is in-phase and an order of magnitude smaller than the deep chamber. Significantly, the shallow chamber seems to control the periodic system behavior: surface magma efflux resumes when the shallow chamber reinflates to its initial threshold pre-eruptive volume (triggering re-opening of an eruptive feeder dike), and ceases when it has lost 14–22 Mm3 (106 m3) of its volume (sealing the conduit and staunching magma flow). These observations are consistent with eruption re-initiation and re-cessation controlled by magma overpressure thresholds.

Volcanic lateral blasts are among the most spectacular and devastating of natural phenomena, but their dynamics are still poorly understood. Here we investigate the best documented and most controversial blast at Mount St. Helens (Washington State, United States), on 18 May 1980. By means of three-dimensional multiphase numerical simulations we demonstrate that the blast front propagation, final runout, and damage can be explained by the emplacement of an unsteady, stratified pyroclastic density current, controlled by gravity and terrain morphology. Such an interpretation is quantitatively supported by large-scale observations at Mount St. Helens and will influence the definition and predictive mapping of hazards on blast-dangerous volcanoes worldwide. Published Version

[1] Vulcanian explosions with plumes to 12 km occurred at Soufriere Hills volcano (SHV) between July 2008 and January 2009. We report strainmeter and barometric data, featuring quasi-linear strain changes that correlate with explosive evacuation of the conduit at rates of ∼0.9−2 × 107 kg s−1. July and January explosion-generated strains were similar, ∼20 nanostrain at ∼5 km, and interpreted as contractions of a quasi-cylindrical conduit, with release of magmastatic pressure, and exsolution-generated overpressure of order 10 MPa. The 3 December 2008 event was distinctive with larger signals (∼140–200 nanostrain at 5–6 km) indicating that a rapid pressurization preceded and triggered the explosion. Modeling suggests a dike with ENE trend, implying that feeder dikes at SHV had diverse attitudes at different times during the eruption. All explosions were associated with acoustic pulses and remarkable atmospheric gravity waves.

[1] We explore volcanotectonic earthquake activity during the early stages of volcanic activity (1995–96) at Soufriere Hills volcano. We focus on several zones of temporally-confined seismic activity that comprise assemblages of small scale structural elements, >2–4 km distant from the volcano, at depths 2–4 km below sea level, and consider seismicity in relation to regional tectonics and heterogeneity of stiffness and strength as revealed by the SEA-CALIPSO tomography experiment. The clustered seismicity and relatively aseismic zones are interpreted to reflect a broad weakened tectonic zone of ESE trend that crosses Montserrat, and the ascent of a magmatic dike of NNE trend, which altered the stress distribution to promote localized fault movements and caused localized dilatation with changes in pore-fluid pressures, to either weaken or strengthen the rock mass depending on the local polarity of strain.

[1] The SEA-CALIPSO experiment was designed to image structure related to active volcanism beneath the island of Montserrat in the Caribbean. As part of that experiment, over 200 Texan recorders with 5 Hz geophones were deployed in 3 linear arrays at a nominal spacing of 100m, primarily to record an airgun source towed offshore around the island. Because the recorders were operating in continuous mode for three days, a number of shallow microearthquakes under the active summit of Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV) were also recorded. 20 events were sufficiently well recorded and located that they could be used to identify and map reflections from deep subsurface structure. Here we report on the processing of those recordings as multichannel CMP reflection sources, with emphasis on careful statics correction and coherency enhancement. The resulting reflection images indicate subhorizontal layering at depths between 6 and 19km which we interpret as sills.

gravity waves propagated at ∼30 m s −1 . Eruption volumes estimated from plume height and strain data are 0.32– 0.42 × 10 6 ,0 .26–0.49 × 10 6 , and 0.81–0.84 × 10 6 m 3 ,f or Explosions 3–5 respectively, consistent with quasi‐cylindrical conduit drawdown