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The aim of this paper is to examine how flows of immigration and emigration to and from Australia over the past 35 years have evolved across settlement areas. This is achieved by studying the changes to the sources of immigration, measured by country or region of birth, the relative propensities of immigrants to remain in Australia, and the differences exhibited by females and males. The analyses utilise a unique set of data on immigration and emigration flows that have been recently harmonised across various sources of existing data, both over time and across geographic units. Specifically, we show how the patterns have evolved for 18 different immigrant groups and the Australia-born population since 1981. This research provides new insights into the patterns of international migration that are greatly influencing population and ethnic change across Australia. We show how the diversity of immigration has increased between 1981 and 2016 and the significance of China and India as new sources of immigration. The increasing diversity is found across all 47 geographic areas that we examine, albeit with variations in the levels and sources of immigration. We also find that retention of immigrants and ratios of returning Australia-born persons have been declining over time. Finally, we show how most immigrant groups exhibit distinct patterns of immigration and emigration by sex.

The study of immigrant population change is hindered by data sources that capture international migration flows separately from other demographic process and population stock data. In this paper, we illustrate this by gathering detailed demographic data and estimates for the Australia-born population and 18 immigrant populations in Australia, according to their country or region of birth. We then develop a methodology for reconciling differences in these data sets to study the sources of quinquennial immigrant population change from 1981 to 2016 by age, sex, and geographic area. Reconciliation refers to the process of ensuring consistency between the demographic components of change (i.e., births, deaths and migration) and total population change. We validate the methodology by how well it predicts the population 5 years later by age and sex using a multiregional cohort-component prediction model. Once the data are reconciled for every 5-year period from 1981 to 2016, we then see how well the reconciled data reproduces the 2016 population data using the 1981 population as a starting point. This research is useful for improving our understanding of the mechanisms and subsequent spatial contributions of immigration to population change over time. We demonstrate such value by examining the reconciled sources of regional population change for populations born in Australia, the United Kingdom and China over time.

The size and composition of the Australian population has shifted since the dismantling of the discriminatory White Australia Policy during the 1970s, yet its immigration system and border control remain highly regulated. Despite this, detailed information about the specific locations that immigrants arrive to or depart from within Australia are not available. The picture is further compounded by inconsistencies in the measurement of flows and geographic boundaries over time. To address these issues, we obtained available immigration and emigration flow data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics at the state and territory level, and developed methods to harmonise the available data, estimate missing elements and disaggregate to a sub-state geography. The methods are applied to 19 birthplace-specific populations across 47 areas in Australia for annual time periods from 1981 to 2016. This research addresses the need for more detailed estimates of demographic events so that a better understanding of the mechanisms and differences underlying regional population change may be provided.

In this chapter, we show how multiplicative components that capture the underlying structures of migration flow tables can be used to inform forecasts of interstate migration in Australia. For our illustration, we decompose 5-year census migration flow tables by state or territory of origin, state or territory of destination, 5-year age group and sex for seven census time periods from 1981–1986 to 2011–2016. The components are described over time and then fitted with time series models to produce holdout sample forecasts of interstate migration with measures of uncertainty. Goodness-of-fit statistics and calibration are then used to identify the best fitting models. The results of this research provide (i) insights into the different migration patterns of an important aspect of subnational population growth in Australia and (ii) potential inputs for standard or multiregional cohort component projection models.

In this chapter, we are interested in how age profiles of migration vary by different immigrant groups arriving to or departing from Australia. Origin-destination patterns of international migration are examined, and a typology of age-specific migration is proposed, largely driven by the types of visas immigrants obtain to enter Australia. To form the typology, the study relies on observed immigration and emigration data from 1981 to 2016 for 19 different birthplace-specific groups, including the Australia-born population. The typology is utilised as a basis for examining how age profiles of international migration differ over time, by sex and across space. Our research shows how the types of visas used to enter the country may explain many of the differences in the observed age profiles of migration to and from Australia.