Search

The plague of 1630–1632 was one of the deadliest plague epidemics to ever hit Northern Italy, and for many of the affected regions, it was also the last. While accounts on plague during the early 1630s in Florence and Milan are frequent, much less is known about the city of Imola. We analyzed the full skeletal assemblage of four mass graves (n = 133 individuals) at the Lazaretto dell’Osservanza, which date back to the outbreak of 1630–1632 in Imola and evaluated our results by integrating new archival sources. The skeletons showed little evidence of physical trauma and were covered by multiple layers of lime, which is characteristic for epidemic mass mortality sites. We screened 15 teeth for Yersinia pestis aDNA and were able to confirm the presence of plague in Imola via metagenomic analysis. Additionally, we studied a contemporaneous register, in which a friar recorded patient outcomes at the lazaretto during the last year of the epidemic. Our multidisciplinary approach combining historical, osteological and genomic data provided a unique opportunity to reconstruct an in-depth picture of the last plague of Imola through the city's main lazaretto.

During the past decades, many high-latitude marine systems have experienced a strong warming trend with poorly understood consequences for trophic coupling and ecosystem functioning. A key knowledge gap is how timing and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms influence higher trophic levels. We investigated associations between timing and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms and dynamics of 3 size fractions of mesozooplankton from 1998 to 2019. The study focused on the southwestern Barents Sea, an Arctic shelf sea area that is dominated by relatively warm Atlantic waters and which remains ice-free year-round. Results showed that an early spring bloom (late April to early May) was associated with high biomass of medium-sized (1-2 mm) zooplankton in areas ‘downstream’ of the phytoplankton bloom, along the prevailing currents. Conversely, a late spring bloom was associated with high biomass of small-sized (0.180-1 mm) zooplankton, with no spatial shift. High peak magnitude of the bloom (>5 mg chl a m-3) was associated with low zooplankton biomass, suggesting either top-down control or that the zooplankton utilized intense and presumably short blooms inefficiently. For small- and large-sized (>2 mm) zooplankton, the relationship was nonlinear, as zooplankton biomass was also low when bloom peak magnitude was very low (a m-3). Our findings imply that if phytoplankton blooms in the region occur earlier, this will increase the biomass of medium-sized zooplankton that are important prey for planktivorous fishes. Moreover, our study highlights that increased biomass of phytoplankton does not necessarily translate into increased zooplankton biomass.

Highlights: • Field investigations of major pollutants along the coast of China were carried out. • The distributions of pollutants are correlated with specific industry sectors. • The distribution characteristics of pollutants varied in different climatic zones. • The ecological risks are affected by both climate and physicochemical properties. Abstract Coastal ecosystem health is of vital importance to human well-being. Field investigations of major pollutants along the whole coast of China were carried out to explore associations between coastal development activities and pollutant inputs. Measurements of target pollutants such as PFAAs and PAHs uncovered notable levels in small estuary rivers. The Yangtze River was identified to deliver the highest loads of these pollutants to the seas as a divide for the spatial distribution of pollutant compositions. Soil concentrations of the volatile and semi-volatile pollutants showed a cold-trapping effect in pace with increasing latitudinal gradient. The coastal ecosystem is facing high ecological risks from metal pollution, especially copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn), while priority pollutants of high risks vary for different kinds of protected species, and the ecological risks were influenced by both climate and physicochemical properties of environmental matrices, which should be emphasized to protect and restore coastal ecosystem functioning.

Swayne's hartebeest Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei was once widely distributed in the Horn of Africa. By the early 20th century, however, it was extirpated across most of its range and is now limited to two relict populations in the Ethiopian Rift Valley and categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List. In this study, we estimated the size and genetic diversity of these two remaining populations, with a particular focus on competition with livestock. We used a total block count method for both Swayne's hartebeest and livestock population counts, and faecal samples for a population genetic analysis. We estimated the total population of Swayne's hartebeest to be 1,528, with 518 individuals in Senkele Swayne's Hartebeest Sanctuary and 1,010 individuals in Maze National Park. Livestock densities were 212 and 153 times those of Swayne's hartebeest in Senkele Swayne's Hartebeest Sanctuary and Maze National Park, respectively. Among 73 mitochondrial D-loop sequences (34 from Senkele Swayne's Hartebeest Sanctuary and 39 from Maze National Park), we found 22 haplotypes (Senkele 12, Maze 16, shared 6). Population genetic parameters suggest only weak sub-structuring between the two populations (FST = 0.164). Despite the positive population trends in both protected areas, the spatial overlap with livestock may lead to future population decline as a result of resource competition and disease transmission. We therefore recommend further translocation to other protected areas within the species’ former range.

Behavioral responses in wildlife due to human activities may often go unnoticed but have significant effects on population viability. This is a particular concern with endangered species characterized by small population sizes. From June 2016 to May 2017, we measured the effects of human activities on daily the activity budget and home range size of mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), an endemic antelope of the Ethiopian highlands. We tracked two groups of mountain nyala from two study sites that differ in the level of human activities; Adaba-Dodola Community Conservation Area (Adaba-Dodola CCA) and Arsi Mountains National Park (Arsi Mountains NP). Our results showed that the time spent on vigilance and movement was dramatically higher in Adaba-Dodola Community CCA, where human presence is significant, than in Arsi Mountains NP, whereas the opposite was true for time spent foraging and resting. In addition, mean home range size (95% KDE) was significantly larger for the Adaba-Dodola CCA group (13 ± 7.4 km2) than for the Arsi Mountains NP group (6.3 ± 2.7 km2) covering larger areas during the dry season (18.7 ± 6.9 km2) than the wet season (4.9 ± 1.0 km2). The finding that increased investment in vigilance and movement trade-off against the restorative behaviors of foraging and resting in human-disturbed areas have implications for conservation managements; specifically, it underscores the need to (i) establish the fitness consequences of behavioral changes, and (ii) monitoring behavioral change in the disturbed population with the aim of bringing it closer to the undisturbed baseline. The study highlights the importance of protected areas, limiting human activities and monitoring the behavioral change of endangered species in human-disturbed areas.

Ensuring a more equitable distribution of vaccines worldwide is an effective strategy to control the COVID-19 pandemic and support global economic recovery. Here, we analyze the socioeconomic effects - defined as health gains, lockdown-easing benefit, and supply-chain rebuilding benefit - of a set of idealized vaccine distribution scenarios, by coupling an epidemiological model with a global trade-modeling framework. We find that overall a perfectly equitable vaccine distribution across the world (Altruistic Age-informed Distribution Strategy) would increase global economic benefits by 11.7% ($950 billion) per year, compared to a strategy focusing on vaccinating the entire population within vaccine-producing countries first and then distributing vaccines to non-vaccine-producing countries (Selfish Distribution Strategy). With limited doses among mid- and low-income countries, prioritizing the elderly who are at high risk of dying, together with the key workforce who are at high risk of exposure, is found to be economically beneficial. We further show that such a strategy would cascade the protection to other production sectors while rebuilding the supply chains. Our results point to a benefit-sharing mechanism which highlights the potential of collaboration between vaccine-producing and other countries to guide an economically preferable vaccine distribution worldwide.

Populations of large mammals have declined at alarming rates, especially in areas with intensified land use where species can only persist in small habitat fragments. To support conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models for the Walia ibex (Capra walie), an endangered wild goat endemic to the Simen Mountains, Ethiopia. We calibrated several models that differ in statistical properties to estimate the spatial extent of suitable habitats of the Walia ibex in the Simen Mountains, as well as in other parts of the Ethiopian highlands to assess potentially suitable areas outside the current distribution range of the species. We further addressed the potential consequences of future climate change using a climate model with four emission scenarios. Model projections estimated the potential suitable habitat under current climate to 501–672 km2 in Simen and 6,251–7,732 km2 in other Ethiopian mountains. Under projected climate change by 2,080, the suitable habitat became larger in Simen but smaller in other parts of Ethiopia. The projected expansion in Simen is contrary to the general expectation of shrinking suitable habitats for high-elevation species under climate warming and may partly be due to the ruggedness of these particular mountains. The Walia ibex has a wide altitudinal range and is able to exploit very steep slopes, allowing it to track the expected vegetation shift to higher altitudes. However, this potential positive impact may not last long under continued climate warming, as the species will not have much more new space left to colonize. Our study indicates that the current distribution range can be substantially increased by reintroducing and/or translocating the species to other areas with suitable habitat. Indeed, to increase the viability and prospects for survival of this flagship species, we strongly recommend human-assisted reintroduction to other Ethiopian mountains. Emulating the successful reintroduction of the Alpine ibex that has spread from a single mountain in Italy to its historical ranges of the Alps in Europe might contribute to saving the Walia ibex from extinction.

Anticipating the medium- and long-term trajectory of pathogen emergence has acquired new urgency given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For many human pathogens the burden of disease depends on age and prior exposure. Understanding the intersection between human population demography and transmission dynamics is therefore critical. Here, we develop a realistic age-structured (RAS) mathematical model that integrates demography, social mixing and immunity to establish the suite of possible scenarios of future age-incidence and burden of mortality. With respect to COVID-19, we identify a plausible transition in the age-structure of risks once the disease reaches seasonal endemism, whether assuming long-lasting or brief protective immunity, and across a range of assumptions of relative severity of primary versus subsequent reinfections. We train the model using diverse real-world demographies and age-structured social mixing patterns to bound expectations for changing age-incidence and disease burden. The mathematical framework is flexible and can help tailoring mitigation strategies countries worldwide with varying demographies and social mixing patterns.One Sentence SummaryA shift of COVID-19 risks to younger age-classes in future endemic circulation.

Background: until broad vaccination coverage is reached and effective therapeutics are available, controlling population mobility (ie, changes in the spatial location of a population that affect the spread and distribution of pathogens) is one of the major interventions used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. However, population mobility differs across locations, which could reduce the effectiveness of pandemic control measures. Here we assess the extent to which socioeconomic factors are associated with reductions in population mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the city level in China and at the country level worldwide. Methods: in this retrospective, observational study, we obtained anonymised daily mobile phone location data for 358 Chinese cities from Baidu, and for 121 countries from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. We assessed the intra-city movement intensity, inflow intensity, and outflow intensity of each Chinese city between Jan 25 (when the national emergency response was implemented) and Feb 18, 2020 (when population mobility was lowest) and compared these data to the corresponding lunar calendar period from the previous year (Feb 5 to March 1, 2019). Chinese cities were classified into four socioeconomic index (SEI) groups (high SEI, high–middle SEI, middle SEI, and low SEI) and the association between socioeconomic factors and changes in population mobility were assessed using univariate and multivariable linear regression. At the country level, we compared six types of mobility (residential, transit stations, workplaces, retail and recreation, parks, and groceries and pharmacies) 35 days after the implementation of the national emergency response in each country and compared these to data from the same day of the week in the baseline period (Jan 3 to Feb 6, 2020). We assessed associations between changes in the six types of mobility and the country's sociodemographic index using univariate and multivariable linear regression. Findings: the reduction in intra-city movement intensity in China was stronger in cities with a higher SEI than in those with a lower SEI (r=–0·47, pInterpretation: although COVID-19 outbreaks are more frequently reported in larger cities, our analysis shows that future policies should prioritise the reduction of risks in areas with a low socioeconomic level—eg, by providing financial assistance and improving public health messaging. However, our study design only allows us to assess associations, and a long-term study is needed to decipher causality. Funding: Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Research Council of Norway, Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission, Beijing Natural Science Foundation, Beijing Advanced Innovation Program for Land Surface Science, National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Association for Science and Technology.

Climate change may contribute to the spatio-temporal occurrence of disasters. Long-term studies of either homogeneous or heterogeneous responses of historical disasters to climate change are, however, limited by the quality and quantity of the available proxy data. Here we reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of five types of disasters in China during the period AD 1368–1911. Our analyses of these time series reveal that warmer temperatures decreased the occurrence of disasters in the monsoon-affected parts of central-east China, but it increased the frequency and intensity of disasters along the boundary of arid and humid conditions in parts of southwest and northeast China, probably driven by the interplay among monsoon, westerlies, polar vortex and variation of temperature. Moreover, we show that drought and flood events had cascading effects on the occurrences of locust outbreaks, famine and human epidemics. Our findings suggest that climate can contribute to the spatio-temporal occurrence of disasters, and therefore may contribute to an improvement of China's regional to national risk management of future climate and environmental change.

Animal populations at northern latitudes may have cyclical dynamics that are degraded by climate change leading to trophic cascade. Hare populations at more southerly latitudes are characterized by dramatic declines in abundance associated with agricultural intensification. We focus on the impact of historical climatic and agricultural change on a mid-latitude population of mountain hares, Lepus timidus hibernicus. Using game bag records from multiple sites throughout Ireland, the hare population index exhibited a distinct regime shift. Contrary to expectations, there was a dynamical structure typical of northern latitude hare populations from 1853 to 1908, during which numbers were stable but cyclic with a periodicity of 8 years. This regime was replaced by dynamics more typical of southern latitude hare populations from 1909 to 1970, in which cycles were lost and numbers declined dramatically. Destabilization of the autumn North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) led to the collapse of similar cycles in the hare population, coincident with the onset of agricultural intensification (a shift from small-to-large farms) in the first half of the 20th century. Similar, but more recent regime shifts have been observed in Arctic ecosystems and attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The present study suggests such shifts may have occurred at lower latitudes more than a century ago during the very early 20th century. It seems likely that similar tipping points in the population collapse of other farmland species may have occurred similarly early but went undocumented. As northern systems are increasingly impacted by climate change and probable expansion of agriculture, the interaction of these processes is likely to disrupt the pulsed flow of resources from cyclic populations impacting ecosystem function.

Climate change is projected to increase the aridity of semi-arid ecosystems, including Mongolian grasslands (MG), which provide ecosystem services that support food supply and pastoralist lifestyle. Here, we conducted a grid-scale (0.5° × 0.5°) probabilistic risk assessment of MG under climate change for 40 years (1976–2015) based on probability theory. We evaluated changes of risk (impacts) and vulnerability of MG to drought between the recent two decades R20 = 1996–2015 and the previous two decades P20 = 1976–1995. The risk is quantified as the product of the probability of hazardous drought and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of hazardous drought is defined from the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index. Vulnerability is defined as the expected differences of key ecosystem variables between years with and without hazardous conditions. The ecosystem variables are productivity (peak aboveground biomass, net primary productivity, and leaf area index) and root-zone plant-available soil moisture, simulated with a process-based vegetation model Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems-Grassland Management validated with field observations of biomass and soil moisture. Results reveal that MG experienced more frequent hazardous droughts with rapid warming and slight drying during R20 aggravated by ever-increasing grazing intensity (34% compared to P20), which resulted in a reduction in soil water availability and grassland productivity, particularly in northeastern areas (20%–65%). The risk of drought to productivity increased by 10% between P20 and R20 over extended areas, particularly in northcentral and northeast Mongolia. The increase in the risk to MG was mainly caused by climate change-induced increase in the probability of hazardous drought and, to a lesser extent, by the increasing vulnerability. Recent droughts modify the risk to grasslands, particularly in northcentral and northeast Mongolia, suggesting that these regions need strategic management for both adaptation and ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change impacts.

Home range and activity patterns of animals are important elements for wildlife management and conservation practices. We examined seasonal home range and daily activity patterns of the endangered Swayne’s hartebeest (Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei) in Maze National Park, Ethiopia. We tracked two groups of Swayne’s hartebeests in open grassland for 1 year. Each group’s daily activities (0700–1900 h) and GPS locations were recorded at 15-min intervals on 5 days every month. Activities were grouped into five behavioral categories: feeding, resting, traveling, vigilance, and other. In addition, we carried out nocturnal monitoring during full moon periods to further document movements patterns. We produced 95% and 50% kernel density estimates (KDE) of home range sizes for each group. Home range estimates did not vary across seasons. Feeding and traveling peaked during the early morning and late afternoon, whereas resting occurred most frequently during the midday hours in both seasons. The proportion of time spent feeding was higher during the dry season, whereas a greater proportion of time was spent resting during the wet season. Vigilance behavior occurred consistently throughout the day during both seasons. Time spent feeding and traveling did not vary significantly between seasons. Activity patterns of Swayne’s hartebeests are strongly influenced both by time of day and season, while home range size is less influenced by seasonality and may instead reflect temporal variation in food availability. Our findings will help to inform management strategies and conserve one of the last two extant populations of Swayne’s hartebeests.

Ongoing climate change threatens biodiversity and directly affects the stability of plant-animal communities. However, it is unclear how the species diversity of biological communities responds to natural climate warming, and whether the temporal stability of biodiversity in the face of climate warming varies with environmental gradients in different communities due to the lack of long-term data. We present three high-resolution records of terrestrial mollusk fossils dating back 25 kyr along a climatic and vegetation gradient from southeast to northwest across the Chinese Loess Plateau. The records show that deglacial warming increased the mollusk diversity by ∼30% in species-poor steppe communities; however, in high-diversity forest-steppe communities, the effect was less, and diversity's dynamic stability was even maintained. The high-diversity communities adjusted their composition by substituting thermo-humidiphilous taxa for cold-tolerant taxa, with the compositional turnover reaching ∼60%. The mollusk diversity of species-poor communities is shown to be more sensitive to the last deglacial warming and associated with the strengthening of the East Asian Summer monsoon than that of diverse communities. The increased temporal instability and sensitivity of biodiversity in species-poor communities in the face of climate disturbances, from a long-term perspective, highlights the potential risk of collapse of soil communities under future anthropogenic biodiversity loss.

Since COVID-19 spread globally in early 2020 and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March, many countries are managing the local epidemics effectively through intervention measures that limit transmission. The challenges of immigration of new infections into regions and asymptomatic infections remain. Standard deterministic compartmental models are inappropriate for sub- or peri-critical epidemics (reproductive number close to or less than one), so individual-based models are often used by simulating transmission from an infected person to others. However, to be realistic, these models require a large number of parameters, each with its own set of uncertainties and lack of analytic tractability. Here, we apply stochastic age-structured Leslie theory with a long history in ecological research to provide some new insights to epidemic dynamics fuelled by external imports. We model the dynamics of an epidemic when R 0 is below one, representing COVID-19 transmission following the successful application of intervention measures, and the transmission dynamics expected when infections migrate into a region. The model framework allows more rapid prediction of the shape and size of an epidemic to improve scaling of the response. During an epidemic when the numbers of infected individuals are rapidly changing, this will help clarify the situation of the pandemic and guide faster and more effective intervention.

Significance The variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is important for the functioning of ecological and societal systems at regional to continental scales, but the long-term evolution and interannual variability of this system is not well understood. Here, we present a stable isotope–based reconstruction of ASM variability covering 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a gradual drying trend, a rapid drop in mean annual precipitation (>40%) toward persistently drier conditions occurred in ∼1675 BCE. This megadrought caused regional forest deterioration and enhanced aeolian activity affecting Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE triggered waves of human migration and societal transformation in northern China, which contributed to the alteration of spatial pattern of ancient civilizations., Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium–BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.

Anticipating the medium- and long-term trajectory of pathogen emergence has acquired new urgency given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For many human pathogens, the burden of disease depends on age and previous exposure. Understanding the intersection between human population demography and transmission dynamics is therefore critical. Here, we develop a realistic age-structured mathematical model that integrates demography, social mixing, and immunity to establish a plausible range for future age incidence and mortality. With respect to COVID-19, we identify a plausible transition in the age structure of risks once the disease reaches seasonal endemism across a range of immunity durations and relative severity of primary versus subsequent reinfections. We train the model using diverse real-world demographies and age-structured mixing to bound expectations for changing age incidence and disease burden. The mathematical framework is flexible and can help tailor mitigation strategies in countries worldwide with varying demographies and social mixing patterns.

Multiple environmental stressors lead to biodiversity loss., Biodiversity is essential for the maintenance of ecosystem health and delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, the drivers of biodiversity loss and the spatial variation in their impacts are poorly understood. Here, we explore the spatial-temporal distributions of threatened and declining (“biodiversity-loss”) species and find that these species are affected by multiple stressors, with climate and human activities being the fundamental shaping forces. There has been large spatial variation in the distribution of threatened species over China’s provinces, with the biodiversity of Gansu, Guangdong, Hainan, and Shaanxi provinces severely reduced. With increasing urbanization and industrialization, the expansion of construction and worsening pollution has led to habitat retreat or degradation, and high proportions of amphibians, mammals, and reptiles are threatened. Because distributions of species and stressors vary widely across different climate zones and geographical areas, specific policies and measures are needed for preventing biodiversity loss in different regions.

Ethiopian shade coffee plantations are well documented to be bird-friendly and act as refuges for disappearing tree species. The extent to which these plantations support mammal conservation, as well as mammal sensitivity to coffee intensification, remain little studied. We studied the distribution and diversity of mammals under three coffee management systems of differing intensities (i.e., semi-forest, semi-plantation, and plantation) and in nearby natural forests in Belete-Gera Forest Priority Area, southwestern Ethiopia. We detected mammals using 30 infrared camera traps at 90 stations for a total of 4142 camera days. We used the Shannon-Wiener diversity index for diversity analysis, generalized linear mixed model for comparison of independent detection, and non-metric multidimensional scaling to show the mammalian community composition. We recorded 8815 digital videos and a total of 23 mammal species. The overall species richness, diversity, and detection of mammals did not differ between the two traditional shade coffee management systems and the natural forest but was lower in the plantation coffee system. The mammal community composition also shows variation in resilience to coffee management intensity, with primates appearing to be generally more tolerant to management intensification. We ultimately show that traditionally managed Ethiopian shade coffee farms shelter diverse mammal communities, comparable to those in nearby natural forests. Therefore, supporting traditional coffee management practices and certifying them as mammal-friendly should be implemented as strategies for the conservation of mammals, as natural forests continue to decline in Ethiopia.

Yersinia pestis, the bacterial causative agent of plague, remains an important threat to human health. Plague is a rodent-borne disease that has historically shown an outstanding ability to colonize and persist across different species, habitats, and environments while provoking sporadic cases, outbreaks, and deadly global epidemics among humans. Between September and November 2017, an outbreak of urban pneumonic plague was declared in Madagascar, which refocused the attention of the scientific community on this ancient human scourge. Given recent trends and plague’s resilience to control in the wild, its high fatality rate in humans without early treatment, and its capacity to disrupt social and healthcare systems, human plague should be considered as a neglected threat. A workshop was held in Paris in July 2018 to review current knowledge about plague and to identify the scientific research priorities to eradicate plague as a human threat. It was concluded that an urgent commitment is needed to develop and fund a strong research agenda aiming to fill the current knowledge gaps structured around 4 main axes: (i) an improved understanding of the ecological interactions among the reservoir, vector, pathogen, and environment; (ii) human and societal responses; (iii) improved diagnostic tools and case management; and (iv) vaccine development. These axes should be cross-cutting, translational, and focused on delivering context-specific strategies. Results of this research should feed a global control and prevention strategy within a “One Health” approach., Author summary The historical aspect of plague makes for fascinating reading, due to its capacity to disrupt human society and its socioeconomic and cultural impacts throughout human history. We argue that the Madagascar outbreak in 2017 is a tipping point in human plague epidemiology and a call to elevate research priorities on plague as a matter of some urgency. In contrast with what occurred with the Ebola virus disease crisis in West Africa between 2013 and 2015 and the new coronaviruses (the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus [SARS-CoV] and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus [MERS-CoV] as early warnings of the current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2] pandemic), we have an opportunity to act preventively and enable evidence-based measures to avoid major health crises due to plague outbreaks in the near future.

Despite ongoing efforts to control transmission, rabies prevention remains a challenge in many developing countries, especially in rural areas of China where re-emerging rabies is under-reported due to a lack of sustained animal surveillance. By taking advantage of detailed genomic and epidemiological data for the re-emerging rabies outbreak in Yunnan Province, China, collected between 1999 and 2015, we reconstruct the demographic and dispersal history of domestic dog rabies virus (RABV) as well as the dynamics of dog-to-dog and dog-to-human transmission. Phylogeographic analyses reveal a lower diffusion coefficient than previously estimated for dog RABV dissemination in northern Africa. Furthermore, epidemiological analyses reveal transmission rates between dogs, as well as between dogs and humans, lower than estimates for Africa. Finally, we show that reconstructed epidemic history of RABV among dogs and the dynamics of rabid dogs are consistent with the recorded human rabies cases. This work illustrates the benefits of combining phylogeographic and epidemic modelling approaches for uncovering the spatiotemporal dynamics of zoonotic diseases, with both approaches providing estimates of key epidemiological parameters., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Human action is transforming the species composition, biogeochemistry and habitats of the world’s oceans at unprecedented rates. The cumulative effect of natural and anthropogenic drivers is challenging to measure, in part due to indirect effects and the complexity of marine systems. Building on the theory of complex adaptive systems, this thesis aims to increase our understanding of how complex, heterogeneous marine social-ecological systems (SES) may respond to changing conditions. This thesis integrates resilience research with network science and describes change and structural patterns at several SES scales in order to advance our knowledge on the effects of multiple drivers.Paper I proposes a new, quantitative fish stock collapse definition, that accounts for fish stock dynamics and enables standardization and thus comparability across a large number of commercial fish stocks. Recognizing that substantial ecosystem changes are part of SES dynamics, in Paper II we review marine regime shifts worldwide to specify how co-occurring bundles of drivers are related to degraded ecosystem services for management purposes. A more detailed ecological study on regime shifts was performed in Papers III and IV. Paper III describes the late-1980s central Baltic Sea regime shift based on a food-web model. Paper IV uses a novel structural network analysis approach to detect functional shifts in complex food webs. The results of Paper IV imply that the Baltic Sea regime shift may not be a systemwide shift. Paper V uses a network approach to analyze fishing strategy diversification and social-ecological connectivity among Swedish Baltic Sea fishers, indicating that natural resource management evaluations should not be limited only to ecosystem conditions but also take account of social conditions.Overall, this thesis provides empirical evidence for the emerging perspective that marine resource science and management must account for the complexity of system elements in order to ensure the provision of ecosystem services in the future. The first application of Exponential Random Graph Modeling in ecology and an improved fish stock collapse definition provide new advanced tools for studying oceans from an SES perspective in the future.

Background Species with a restricted geographic distribution, and highly specialized habitat and dietary requirements, are particularly vulnerable to extinction. The Bale monkey (Chlorocebus djamdjamensis) is a little-known arboreal, bamboo-specialist primate endemic to the southern Ethiopian Highlands. While most Bale monkeys inhabit montane forests dominated by bamboo, some occupy forest fragments where bamboo is much less abundant. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences to analyse the genetic structure and evolutionary history of Bale monkeys covering the majority of their remaining distribution range. We analysed 119 faecal samples from their two main habitats, continuous forest (CF) and fragmented forests (FF), and sequenced 735 bp of the hypervariable region I (HVI) of the control region. We added 12 orthologous sequences from congeneric vervets (C. pygerythrus) and grivets (C. aethiops) as well as animals identified as hybrids, previously collected in southern Ethiopia. Results We found strong genetic differentiation (with no shared mtDNA haplotypes) between Bale monkey populations from CF and FF. Phylogenetic analyses revealed two distinct and highly diverged clades: a Bale monkey clade containing only Bale monkeys from CF and a green monkey clade where Bale monkeys from FF cluster with grivets and vervets. Analyses of demographic history revealed that Bale monkey populations (CF and FF) have had stable population sizes over an extended period, but have all recently experienced population declines. Conclusions The pronounced genetic structure and deep mtDNA divergence between Bale monkey populations inhabiting CF and FF are likely to be the results of hybridization and introgression of the FF population with parapatric Chlorocebus species, in contrast to the CF population, which was most likely not impacted by hybridization. Hybridization in the FF population was probably enhanced by an alteration of the bamboo forest habitat towards a more open woodland habitat, which enabled the parapatric Chlorocebus species to invade the Bale monkey's range and introgress the FF population. We therefore propose that the CF and FF Bale monkey populations should be managed as separate units when developing conservation strategies for this threatened species. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-018-1217-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

Mortality of pelagic eggs and larvae of marine fish is often assumed to be constant both in space and time due to lacking information. This may, however, be a gross oversimplification, as early life stages are likely to experience large variations in mortality both in time and space. In this paper we develop a method for estimating the spatial variability in mortality of eggs and larvae. The method relies on survey data and physical–biological particle-drift models to predict the drift of ichthyoplankton. Furthermore, the method was used to estimate the spatially resolved mortality field in the egg and larval stages of Barents Sea cod ( Gadus morhua ). We analyzed data from the Barents Sea for the period between 1959 and 1993 when there are two surveys available: a spring and a summer survey. An individual-based physical–biological particle-drift model, tailored to the egg and larval stages of Barents Sea cod, was used to predict the drift trajectories from the observed stage-specific distributions in spring to the time of observation in the summer, a drift time of approximately 45 days. We interpreted the spatial patterns in the differences between the predicted and observed abundance distributions in summer as reflecting the spatial patterns in mortality over the drift period. Using the estimated mortality fields, we show that the spatial variations in mortality might have a significant impact on survival to later life stages and we suggest that there may be trade-offs between increased early survival in off shore regions and reduced probability of ending up in the favorable nursing grounds in the Barents Sea. In addition, we show that accounting for the estimated mortality field, improves the correlation between a simulated recruitment index and observation-based indices of juvenile abundance.

The problem of reconstructing the source-sink dynamics arises in many biological systems. Our research is motivated by marine applications where newborns are passively dispersed by ocean currents from several potential spawning sources to settle in various nursery regions that collectively constitute the sink. The reconstruction of the sparse source-sink linkage pattern, that is, to identify which sources contribute to which regions in the sink, is a challenging task in marine ecology. We derive a constrained nonlinear multicomponent regression model for source-sink reconstruction, which is capable of simultaneously selecting important linkages from the sources to the sink regions and making inference about the unobserved spawning activities at the sources. A sparsity-inducing and nonnegativity-constrained regularization approach is developed for model estimation, and theoretically we show that our estimator enjoys the oracle properties. The empirical performance of the method is investigated via simulati...

Fish stock fluctuations are affected by two potentially confounding forces: the removal of individuals by fisheries and climatic variations affecting the productivity of fish populations. Disentangling the relative importance of these forces has thus been a question of primary importance for fisheries management and conservation. Through the analysis of long-term time-series for 27 fish stocks from the Northeast Atlantic, the present study shows that the sign and intensity of the effect of temperature on biomass are dependent on the geographical location: the stocks located at the southernmost and northernmost latitudes of our study displayed stronger associations with temperature than the stocks located in the middle range of latitudes. As a consequence, the investigation of the combined effects of exploitation and the environment revealed that the stocks at the northern/southern boundaries of the spatial extent of the species were more prone to combined effects. The interplay between geographic location, climate and exploitation thus plays a significant role in fish stock productivity, which is generally ignored during assessment, thus affecting management procedures., Sí

Direct effects of climate change on animal physiology, and indirect impacts from disruption of seasonal synchrony and breakdown of trophic interactions are particularly severe in Arctic and Alpine ecosystems. Unravelling biotic from abiotic drivers, however, remains challenging because high-resolution animal population data are often limited in space and time. Here, we show that variation in annual horn growth (an indirect proxy for individual performance) of 8043 male Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) over the past four decades is well synchronised among eight disjunct colonies in the eastern Swiss Alps. Elevated March to May temperatures, causing premature melting of Alpine snowcover, earlier plant phenology and subsequent improvement of ibex food resources, fuelled annual horn growth. These results reveal dependency of local trophic interactions on large-scale climate dynamics, and provide evidence that declining herbivore performance is not a universal response to global warming even for high-altitude populations that are also harvested.

Variation in large-scale climatic conditions can have profound effects on local weather patterns and ecological processes. For example, it is well known that a positive shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the last 2 decades has coincided with warmer, wetter winters over Northern Europe and advances in spring phenology, including both migration and breeding of birds. However, the effect of the NAO is not evident throughout the Northern Hemi- sphere and the same is true of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been linked to survival of northern birds wintering in Africa. Recently, a growing body of evidence suggests that an independent ocean circulation system in the Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is partly responsible for driving climate variability in the surrounding landmasses. The IOD had traditionally been viewed as an artefact of the ENSO system, although increasingly evidence is accruing that it is a separate and distinct phenomenon. Here we present some results on the causes of the IOD, how it develops within the Indian Ocean, its relationships with the ENSO, and the consequences for East African climate dynamics and associated impacts on ecosystems, in par- ticular along the Eastern Arc Mountains of Kenya and Tanzania. In this opinion article we evalu- ate current research initiatives focused on characterizing the IOD, and examine how effective these will be in determining climate change impacts on East African ecosystems, particularly with respect to avian lifecycles.

Assessment of future ecosystem risks should account for the relevant uncertainty sources. This means accounting for the joint effects of climate variables and using modelling techniques that allow proper treatment of uncertainties. We investigate the influence of three of the IPCC's scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (special report on emission scenarios (SRES)) on projections of the future abundance of a bryophyte model species. We also compare the relative importance of uncertainty sources on the population projections. The whole chain global climate model (GCM)—regional climate model—population dynamics model is addressed. The uncertainty depends on both natural- and model-related sources, in particular on GCM uncertainty. Ignoring the uncertainties gives an unwarranted impression of confidence in the results. The most likely population development of the bryophyte Buxbaumia viridis towards the end of this century is negative: even with a low-emission scenario, there is more than a 65 per cent risk for the population to be halved. The conclusion of a population decline is valid for all SRES scenarios investigated. Uncertainties are no longer an obstacle, but a mandatory aspect to include in the viability analysis of populations.

It is becoming increasingly clear that global warming is taking place; however, its long-term effects on biological populations are largely unknown due to lack of long-term data. Here, we reconstructed a 1,910-y-long time series of outbreaks of Oriental migratory locusts ( Locusta migratoria manilensis ) in China, on the basis of information extracted from >8,000 historical documents. First by analyzing the most recent period with the best data quality using generalized additive models, we found statistically significant associations between the reconstructed locust abundance and indexes of precipitation and temperature at both annual (A.D. 1512–1911) and decadal (A.D. 1000–1900) scales: There were more locusts under dry and cold conditions and when locust abundance was high in the preceding year or decade. Second, by exploring locust–environment correlations using a 200-y moving window, we tested whether these associations also hold further back in time. The locust–precipitation correlation was found to hold at least as far back as to A.D. 500, supporting the robustness of this link as well as the quality of both reconstructions. The locust–temperature correlation was weaker and less consistent, which may reflect this link being indirect and thus more easily moderated by other factors. We anticipate that further analysis of this unique time series now available to the scientific community will continue to provide insights into biological consequences of climate change in the years to come.

Marine reserves are perceived as a critical component in successful rebuilding of overharvested marine popula- tions. Such efforts can be particularly successful in species with limited movement rates. However, long-term data on move- ment is sparse for most marine species. Here, we investigated space use in European lobster (Homarus gammarus )b y ultrasonic tracking in a reserve on the Norwegian Skagerrak coast from September 2006 to August 2007. Over the period, 95% of tagged lobsters remained either within the reserve or near reserve boundaries. Home range estimates based on a ker- nel density estimator of the 95% utilization distribution ranged from 5728 to 41 548 m 2 (mean 19 879 ± 2152 m 2 standard error), representing 0.57%-4.15% of the reserve area (1 km 2 ), with no significant difference among males, non-ovigerous fe- males, and ovigerous females for an overlapping observation period of 242 days. Logistic regression predicted average time to reach 50% and 95% of minimum convex polygon home range area at 98 and 259 days, respectively. These results show that European lobsters can be resident with limited home ranges. Small coastal reserves can be designed to afford complete or partial protection by letting boundaries engulf or intersect patches of habitat preferred by this species. Resume : Les reserves marines sont percues comme une composante essentielle pour la reconstruction des populations ma- rines surexploitees. De telles initiatives peuvent avoir du succes particulierement chez les especes a taux de deplacement li- mite. Il n'existe cependant que peu de donnees sur les deplacements a long terme chez la plupart des especes marines. Nous etudions l'utilisation de l'espace chez des homards europeens (Homarus gammarus) suivis par ultrasons dans une reserve sur la cote de Skagerrak en Norvege de septembre 2006 a aout 2007. Durant cette periode, 90 % des homards marques sont de- meures ou bien a l'interieur de la reserve ou pres de ses frontieres. Les estimations des aires vitales basees sur un estimateur

Many species of large herbivores are declining in numbers as a consequence of direct exploitation or habitat loss. In the Ethiopian highlands, rapid human population growth has resulted in an expansion of human settlements and farmland, threatening many endemic species such as the mountain nyala Tragelaphus buxtoni. Despite being listed as an endangered species, the mountain nyala is still the most important trophy hunting species in Ethiopia. We counted faecal pellets of mountain nyala within plots distributed along transects to estimate population size and identify key environmental variables associated with the presence of faecal pellet groups. The total mountain nyala population was estimated at 3756 (95% confidence intervals: 2506–7135) individuals, mainly occupying woodlands while avoiding human developments (agriculture and settlements). The total suitable area was estimated at 8333 km2. Only 31.6% of the total population lived within a national park, while 53.5% of the population inhabited two controlled hunting areas in the eastern mountains. Abundance was 3.7 times higher in areas patrolled by wardens, regardless of being in a national park or hunting area, suggesting that formal protection must be followed by surveillance to avoid poaching and habitat destruction. We found no negative correlation between pellet abundance and trophy hunting. Yet, it is too early to conclude that trophy hunting is sustainable as it has only recently been initiated in the studied populations.

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years.

A key question in many genetic studies on marine organisms is how to interpret a low but statistically significant level of genetic differentiation. Do such observations reflect a real phenomenon, or are they caused by confounding factors such as unrepresentative sampling or selective forces acting on the marker loci? Further, are low levels of differentiation biologically trivial, or can they represent a meaningful and perhaps important finding? We explored these issues in an empirical study on coastal Atlantic cod, combining temporally replicated genetic samples over a 10-year period with an extensive capture-mark-recapture study of individual mobility and population size. The genetic analyses revealed a pattern of differentiation between the inner part of the fjord and the open skerries area at the fjord entrance. Overall, genetic differentiation was weak (average F(ST) = 0.0037), but nevertheless highly statistical significant and did not depend on particular loci that could be subject to selection. This spatial component dominated over temporal change, and temporal replicates clustered together throughout the 10-year period. Consistent with genetic results, the majority of the recaptured fish were found close to the point of release, with

Off the coast of South Africa, the 2 most important prey items for African penguins Spheniscus demersus are sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus, species heavily exploited by commercial fisheries. At Dassen Island, the proportion of burrows occupied for breeding by African penguins from 1995 to 2008 was affected positively by the interaction between the overall biomass of sardine and anchovy. However, sardine had a positive effect while anchovy had a negative one. This unexpected negative relationship may result from a reduced local availabil- ity of anchovy linked to the fishing effort that continued to be focussed in the vicinity of Dassen Island, while the growing anchovy stock experienced an eastward shift away from Dassen Island in recent years, creating a spatial mismatch between penguin and available anchovy. A decrease of the Southern Oscillation Index tended to advance the onset of penguins' breeding, as did an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) at the sardine and anchovy spawning grounds. An increase in SST at the nursery and spawning areas tended to decrease the penguin per capita growth rate. Earlier breeding resulted in decreased chick production, possibly because it created a temporal mismatch between chick rearing and winter availability of young-of-the-year anchovy and sardine along South Africa's west coast. The local abundance of prey is more important for breeding African penguins than overall fish abundance. Consequently, management of the purse-seine fishery should be adjusted spatially in order to ensure adequate local food supplies for breeding African penguins.

Using autocorrelation analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling, we analysed a time series of the monthly number of 1° grid squares infested with desert locust Schistocerca gregaria swarms throughout the geographical range of the species from 1930-1987. Statistically significant first- and higher-order autocorrelations were found in the series. Although endogenous components captured much of the variance, adding rainfall data improved endogenous ARIMA models and resulted in more realistic forecasts. Using a square-root transforma- tion for the locust data improved the fit. The models were only partially successful when accounting for the dramatic changes in abundance which may occur during locust upsurges and declines, in some cases successfully predicting these phenomena but underestimating their severity. Better fitting models were also produced when rainfall data were added to models of an equivalent series for desert locust hoppers (nymphs) that incorporated lagged data for locust swarms as independent vari- ables, representing parent generations. The results are discussed in relation to predicting likely changes in desert locust dynamics with reference to potential effects of climate change.

Summary 1. Climate change may have profound consequences for many organisms. We have studied fluctuations in a population of the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus during 31 years (1978–2008) in a river system in southern Norway in relation to both large-scale and local weather conditions occurring during the non-breeding season. 2. Multiple regression and partial least squares regression were used to model the growth rate of the population, accounting for population size in the previous year. 3. Population growth was influenced by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), mean winter temperature, precipitation and timing of ice formation on the main lake in the river system in autumn. These variables explained 84% of the variation in population growth over the 31 -year study period. 4. Local winter conditions played a prominent role in explaining the population fluctuations, which is plausible because the dipper depends on open water for foraging. In the study area, winters can be harsh and rivers and lakes may freeze and severely affect the subsequent population size of the dipper in spring. 5. The breeding population of the dipper does not seem yet to have reached a level where all possible territories in the area have been occupied, even after mild winters, and the estimated carrying capacity is also decidedly lower (66 breeding pairs) than the number of available territories. If the trend of milder winters continues, the population might increase in the future. However, strong climate variation is expected to continue in the future, and hence periods of rapid growth of the dipper population will probably be followed by severe declines.

Recent studies have linked climatic and social instabilities in ancient China; the underlying causal mechanisms have, however, often not been quantitatively assessed. Here, using historical records and palaeoclimatic reconstructions during AD 10–1900, we demonstrate that war frequency, price of rice, locust plague, drought frequency, flood frequency and temperature in China show two predominant periodic bands around 160 and 320 years where they interact significantly with each other. Temperature cooling shows direct positive association with the frequency of external aggression war to the Chinese dynasties mostly from the northern pastoral nomadic societies, and indirect positive association with the frequency of internal war within the Chinese dynasties through drought and locust plagues. The collapses of the agricultural dynasties of the Han, Tang, Song and Ming are more closely associated with low temperature. Our study suggests that food production during the last two millennia has been more unstable during cooler periods, resulting in more social conflicts owing to rebellions within the dynasties or/and southward aggressions from northern pastoral nomadic societies in ancient China.

Climate may affect marine fish populations through many different pathways, operating at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Climate impacts may work their way bottom up through the food web or affect higher trophic levels more directly. In this review we try to disentangle and summarize some of the current knowledge made available through the rapidly increasing literature on the topic, with particular emphasis on the work within the Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) programme. We first consider different classification schemes and hypotheses relating climate through physical features of the ocean to population patterns. The response of a population or community to climate may be linear or non-linear, direct or indirect. The hypotheses may be classified according to the form of physical features in operation as being related to mixing, advection or temperature. The bulk of the paper is devoted to a region-by-region presentation and discussion of examples relating climate variability to marine fish populations. It is slanted towards the North Atlantic and North Pacific, but the tropical Pacific is also covered. By means of different categorization methods we compare climate responses between ecosystems. We conclude that the use of such classification schemes allows for a more precise description of the various ecosystems particular properties and facilitates inter-regional comparison.

Proxy climate data for the Pacific Ocean show that the most intense El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity during the last millennium coincides with the most recent period of defor- estation on Easter Island. We therefore raise the question as to whether an abrupt change in ENSO variability and its associated impact on the marine resources surrounding Easter Island might have been—for a population already under strain from a number of different pressures—the final stressor causing social collapse. Studies showing how this hypothesized interaction between climate, marine resources and human history on Easter Island could be investigated are discussed.

We present a bioeconomic model for moose Alces alces management in Norway, where two sub-populations of moose are subject to different site-specific mortality rates caused by the spatial distribution of territorial wolf Canis lupus packs, and are coupled by the seasonal migration of moose. The costs and benefits of moose are asymmetrically distributed in space, since they congregate in the wolf territory during winter where most browsing damage occurs. Using a class-structured matrix population model as the basis for bioeconomic analysis, we investigated how the optimal moose management differed between a unified (i.e. maximising overall profit) and a non-unified (i.e. profit maximised at the level of individual landowners) management scheme. Within the unified management scheme, the combined marginal costs and benefits decide the optimal off-take rate, and the relative hunting value and damage costs decide the relative allocation of the harvest between the two sub-populations. In the non-unified management scheme, harvesting takes place up to the point where the private marginal hunting value equals the private marginal browsing cost, while the relative hunting value and damage costs do not influence the optimal management. As the browsing damage that occurs inside the wolf territory is not taken into account in the costs of the area outside the territory within the non-unified solution, optimal moose population size will be higher for the outer area than under the unified solution. This results in an overall economic loss, which increases with increasing migration rates. Whenever the boundaries of political or management units do not follow those of ecological processes, ignoring the spatial resolution of the ecological process will result in sub-optimal management of a renewable resource.

Global warming is currently of great concern. Yet the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. Recent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the Oriental migratory locust ( Locusta migratoria manilensis ) in China have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with Yangtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium (AD 957–1956). In order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance, floods, droughts and temperature in ancient China, we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. We find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies, and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160–170 years. Similar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the Yangtze Delta region are used, despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. We suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160–170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in China through the past millennium, the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. Our results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects.

The patterns of variations in fisheries time series are known to result from a complex combination of species and fisheries dynamics all coupled with environmental forcing (including climate, trophic interactions, etc.). Disentangling the relative effects of these factors has been a major goal of fisheries science for both conceptual and management reasons. By examining the variability of 169 tuna and billfish time series of catch and catch per unit effort (CPUE) throughout the Atlantic as well as their linkage to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we find that the importance of these factors differed according to the spatial scale. At the scale of the entire Atlantic the patterns of variations are primarily spatially structured, whereas at a more regional scale the patterns of variations were primarily related to the fishing gear. Furthermore, the NAO appeared to also structure the patterns of variations of tuna time series, especially over the North Atlantic. We conclude that the patterns of variations in fisheries time series of tuna and billfish only poorly reflect the underlying dynamics of these fish populations; they appear to be shaped by several successive embedded processes, each interacting with each other. Our results emphasize the necessity for scientific data when investigating the population dynamics of large pelagic fishes, because CPUE fluctuations are not directly attributable to change in species' abundance.

Many species of fungi produce ephemeral autumnal fruiting bodies to spread and multiply. Despite their attraction for mushroom pickers and their economic importance, little is known about the phenology of fruiting bodies. Using ≈34,500 dated herbarium records we analyzed changes in the autumnal fruiting date of mushrooms in Norway over the period 1940–2006. We show that the time of fruiting has changed considerably over this time period, with an average delay in fruiting since 1980 of 12.9 days. The changes differ strongly between species and groups of species. Early-fruiting species have experienced a stronger delay than late fruiters, resulting in a more compressed fruiting season. There is also a geographic trend of earlier fruiting in the northern and more continental parts of Norway than in more southern and oceanic parts. Incorporating monthly precipitation and temperature variables into the analyses provides indications that increasing temperatures during autumn and winter months bring about significant delay of fruiting both in the same year and in the subsequent year. The recent changes in autumnal mushroom phenology coincide with the extension of the growing season caused by global climate change and are likely to continue under the current climate change scenario.

Understanding how climate influences ecosystems is complicated by the many correlated and interrelated impacting factors. Here we quantify climate effects on Calanus finmarchicus in the northeastern Norwegian Sea and southwestern Barents Sea. By combining oceanographic drift models and statistical analyses of field data from 1959 to 1993 and investigating effects across trophic levels, we are able to elucidate pathways by which climate influences zooplankton. The results show that both chlorophyll biomass in spring and C. finmarchicus biomass in summer relate positively to a combination of shallow mixed layer depth and increased wind in spring, suggesting that C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is influenced by bottom-up effects of food availability. Furthermore, spatially resolved C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is linked to favorable transport from warmer, core areas to the south. However, increased mean temperature in spring does not lead to increased C. finmarchicus biomass in summer. Rather, spring biomass is generally higher, but population growth from spring to summer is lower, after a warm compared with a cold spring. Our study illustrates how improved understanding of climate effects can be obtained when different datasets and different methods are combined in a unified approach.

The long-term advance in the timing of bird spring migration in the Northern Hemi- sphere is associated with global climate change. The extent to which changes in bird phenology reflect responses to weather conditions in the wintering or breeding areas, or during migration, how- ever, remains to be elucidated. We analyse the relationships between the timing of spring migration of 9 species of trans-Saharan migratory birds across the Mediterranean, and thermal and precipita- tion anomalies in the main wintering areas south of the Sahara Desert and in North African stopover areas. Median migration dates were collected on the island of Capri (southern Italy) by standardized mist-netting during 1981 to 2004. High temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa (Sahel and Gulf of Guinea) prior to northward migration (February and March) were associated with advanced migra- tion. Moreover, birds migrated earlier when winter rainfall in North Africa was more abundant. The relationships between relevant meteorological variables and timing of migration were remarkably consistent among species, suggesting a coherent response to the same extrinsic stimuli. All these results were obtained while statistically controlling for the long-term trend towards the earlier timing of spring migration across the Mediterranean that has been documented in previous analyses of the same dataset, a trend that was confirmed by the present analyses. In conclusion, our results suggest that thermal conditions in the wintering quarters, as well as rainfall in North African stopover areas, can influence interannual variation in migration phenology of trans-Saharan migratory birds, although the ecological mechanisms that causally link meteorological conditions to the timing of migration remain a matter of speculation.

For >1,000 years, Chinese officials have recorded the annual abundance of the oriental migratory locust Locusta migratoria manilensis , with the ultimate aim of predicting locust outbreaks. Linking these records with temperature and precipitation reconstructions for the period 957-1956, we show that decadal mean locust abundance is highest during cold and wet periods. These periods coincide with above-average frequencies of both floods and droughts in the lower Yangtze River, phenomena that are associated with locust outbreaks. Our results imply differential ecological responses to interdecadal and interannual climatic variability. Such frequency-dependent effects deserve increased attention in global warming studies.