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Recent decades have been characterised by amplified Arctic warming and increased occurrence of extreme weather events in the North Atlantic region. While earlier studies noticed statistical links between high-latitude warming and mid-latitude weather extremes, the underlying dynamical connections remained elusive. Combining different data products, I will demonstrate a new mechanism linking Arctic ice losses with cold anomalies and storms in the subpolar region in winter, and with heat waves and droughts over Europe summer. Considering feedbacks of the identified mechanism on the Arctic Ocean circulation, I will further present new support for the potential of Arctic warming to trigger a rapid change in climate.

Outflows of low-salinity waters from the Arctic to the upper layers of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) are central in redistributing freshwater from river runoff, melting sea ice, and precipitation. They act to reduce shallow, as well as deep, convection; thereby affecting both biological production and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The two main sources of low-salinity water to the SPNA are the flows through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and through the Denmark Strait. A potential additional source of low-salinity water is the shelf/slope region south of Iceland, mainly fed by Icelandic runoff. Normally this water passes into the Nordic Seas, but in some periods, it may instead flow into the upper layers of the central parts of the Iceland Basin in the eastern SPNA. This low-salinity water has previously been overlooked as a freshwater supply to the SPNA. Using a range of observational data sets, we show that the conditions for a diversion of this water mass from the south Iceland shelf into the Iceland Basin were favourable during the 2014–2018 period. In those years the Iceland Basin became extraordinarily fresh, characterized by surface salinity lower than previously seen in a 120-year long time series. The event is thought to have been mainly caused by unusual winter wind stress patterns that diverted freshwater from the western SPNA to the eastern basin and caused a zonal shift of the subpolar front. Here, we show that the low-salinity signal near the surface was locally reinforced in the central Iceland Basin by anomalous diversion of low-salinity water originating in the shallow shelf areas south of Iceland and that this can help explain why the surface salinity of the Iceland Basin became so exceptionally low. The diversion was generated by anomalous wind conditions over the Iceland Basin and caused slightly enhanced freshening of the warm waters crossing the Greenland-Scotland Ridge from the SPNA into the Nordic Seas. The low-salinity Icelandic-source water also increased the near-surface stratification and reduced the depth of convection in the Iceland Basin during two consecutive winters with reduced nutrient renewal of near-surface waters as a consequence. Although especially pronounced after 2014, this extra freshwater input probably occurs more generally, which may help explain why the central Iceland Basin may be an oligotrophic region, as has previously been suggested.

Continuous measurements from the OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) array yield the first estimates of trans-basin heat and salinity transports in the subpolar latitudes. For the period from August 2014 to May 2018, there is a poleward heat transport of 0.50 ± 0.05 PW and a poleward salinity transport of 12.5 ± 1.0 Sv across the OSNAP section. Based on the mass and salt budget analyses, we estimate that a surface freshwater input of 0.36 ± 0.05 Sv over the broad subpolar-Arctic region is needed to balance the ocean salinity change created by the OSNAP transports. The overturning circulation is largely responsible for setting these heat and salinity transports (and the derived surface freshwater input) derived from the OSNAP array, while the gyre (isopycnal) circulation contributes to a lesser, but still significant, extent. Despite its relatively weak overturning and heat transport, the Labrador Sea is a strong contributor to salinity and freshwater changes in the subpolar region. Combined with trans-basin transport estimates at other locations, we provide new estimates for the time-mean surface heat and freshwater divergences over a wide domain of the Arctic-North Atlantic region to the north and south of the OSNAP line. Furthermore, we estimate the total heat and freshwater exchanges across the surface area of the extratropical North Atlantic between the OSNAP and the RAPID-MOCHA (RAPID Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heat-flux Array) arrays, by combining the cross-sectional transports with vertically-integrated ocean heat and salinity content. Comparisons with the air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes from atmospheric reanalysis products show an overall consistency, yet with notable differences in the magnitudes during the observation time period.

Major changes are occurring across the North Atlantic climate system, including in the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, and many observed changes are unprecedented in instrumental records. As the changes in the North Atlantic directly affect the climate and air quality of the surrounding continents, it is important to fully understand how and why the changes are taking place, not least to predict how the region will change in the future. To this end, this article characterizes the recent observed changes in the North Atlantic region, especially in the period 2005–2016, across many different aspects of the system including: atmospheric circulation; atmospheric composition; clouds and aerosols; ocean circulation and properties; and the cryosphere. Recent changes include: an increase in the speed of the North Atlantic jet stream in winter; a southward shift in the North Atlantic jet stream in summer, associated with a weakening summer North Atlantic Oscillation; increases in ozone and methane; increases in net absorbed radiation in the mid‐latitude western Atlantic, linked to an increase in the abundance of high level clouds and a reduction in low level clouds; cooling of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, concomitant with increases in the western subtropical gyre, and a decline in the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation; a decline in Atlantic sector Arctic sea ice and rapid melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. There are many interactions between these changes, but these interactions are poorly understood. This article concludes by highlighting some of the key outstanding questions.

The ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) Working Group on Oceanic Hydrography (WGOH) was established in the late 1970’s with the aim of gathering experts in physical oceanography to provide regular science-based assessments of the North Atlantic hydrographical condition (basically termohaline fields). From the beginning, the WGOH has relied on repeated long-term in-situ sampling at key sites around the North Atlantic, the Nordic Seas and adjacent shelf seas. An annual Report on Ocean Climate (IROC), produced by the WGOH since the late 1990’s, summarizes trends in regional hydrography and identifies patterns linking these changes across the North Atlantic. Regional analyses are prepared by local experts who are directly involved in the monitoring programs responsible for collecting data presented in the report. An interactive webpage created in 2013 allows users to browse and download data that inform the IROC. Within the last two decades the physical oceanography community has evolved quickly incorporating technological advances such as autonomous devices into classical in-situ sampling programs. The WGOH has embraced such technological developments without diverting focus from ongoing in-situ long-term monitoring programs. Having longstanding experience synthesizing data and expertise from a large number of operational programs spanning an extensive international footprint, the WGOH has a unique perspective to offer the global ocean observing community. Here we discuss how we might foster connections with ICES to benefit the GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System) community., Sí

The East Greenland Coastal Current (EGCC) is characterized as cold, low-salinity polar waters flowing equatorward on the east Greenland shelf. It is an important conduit of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean, but our present understanding of it is poor, outside of an assortment of measurements which stem mainly from summertime visits by research vessels. This manuscript first describes measurements from moored instruments deployed on the East Greenland shelf (∼63°N) between 2000 and 2004. The measurements are then used to show that a high-resolution coupled ice-ocean global general circulation model supports a realistic representation of the EGCC. The results show that the EGCC exists throughout the year and is stronger in winter than in summer. The model EGCC seawater transports are a maximum (minimum) in February (August), at 3.8 (1.9) × 106 m3 s−1. Freshwater transports, including modeled estimates of sea ice transport and referenced to salinity 35.0, are a maximum (minimum) in February (August) at 106 (59) × 103 m3 s−1. The model results show that wind and buoyancy forcing are of similar importance to EGCC transport. An empirical decomposition of the buoyancy-forced transport into a buoyancy-only component and a coupled wind and buoyancy component indicates the two to be of similar magnitude in winter. The model annual mean freshwater flux of ∼80–90 × 103 m3 s−1 approaches 50% of the net rate of Arctic freshwater gain, underlining the climatic importance of the EGCC.

In summer and autumn 2010, a highly anomalous phytoplankton bloom, with chlorophyll concentration more than double that of previous years, was observed in the Irminger Basin, southwest of Iceland. Two unusual events occurred during 2010 which had the potential to promote the unusual bloom. First, in spring 2010, the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland erupted, depositing large quantities of tephra into the subpolar North Atlantic. Second, during the winter of 2009/2010 the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) became extremely negative, developing into the second strongest negative NAO on record. Hydrographic conditions were highly anomalous in the region, with an influx of freshwater spreading through the basin, and unusual nutrient and mixed layer depth conditions. Here we use a combination of satellite, modeled and in situ data to investigate whether the input of iron from the volcanic eruption or change in hydrographic conditions due to the extreme negative NAO were responsible for the anomalous phytoplankton bloom. We conclude that changes in physical forcing driven by the NAO, and not the volcanic eruption, stimulated the unusual bloom.

Arctic fresh water plays a large role in both the global ocean circulation and the hydrological cycle. To identify sources and pathways of the Arctic outflow into the North Atlantic, results of a high resolution global model and observations have been examined. It is shown that continental runoff and snowmelt are the dominant sources of Arctic fresh water. The simulations demonstrated that the oceanic transports account for the majority of the fresh water export from the Arctic into the North Atlantic. The oceanic outflow from the Arctic is split between the western route through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the eastern route through the Nordic Seas. Two thirds of total oceanic fresh water comes via the western route. Arctic halocline waters are present on both the western and eastern routes with the western route providing most of the Arctic upper halocline water. Sea ice export contributes more than half the total freshwater flux east of Greenland and less than one fifth of the freshwater flux west of it. Pacific water constitutes about third of the outflow of the Arctic upper halocline water into the North Atlantic.

The subpolar North Atlantic represents a key region for global climate, but most numerical models still have well-described limitations in correctly simulating the local circulation patterns. Here, we present the analysis of a 30-year run with a global eddy-resolving (1/12°) version of the NEMO ocean model. Compared to the 1° and 1/4° equivalent versions, this simulation more realistically represents the shape of the Subpolar Gyre, the position of the North Atlantic Current, and the Gulf Stream separation. Other key improvements are found in the representation of boundary currents, multi-year variability of temperature and depth of winter mixing in the Labrador Sea, and the transport of overflows at the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. However, the salinity, stratification and mean depth of winter mixing in the Labrador Sea, and the density and depth of overflow water south of the sill, still present challenges to the model. This simulation also provides further insight into the spatio-temporal development of the warming event observed in the Subpolar Gyre in the mid 1990s, which appears to coincide with a phase of increased eddy activity in the southernmost part of the gyre. This may have provided a gateway through which heat would have propagated into the gyre's interior.

Changes in the ecosystem of the North Sea may occur as pronounced inter-annual and step-wise shifts as well as gradual trends. Marked inter-annual shifts have occurred at least twice in the last two decades, the late 1980s and the late 1990s, that appear to reflect an increased inflow of oceanic water and species. Numerical modelling has demonstrated a link between altered rates of inflow of oceanic water into the northern North Sea and a regime shift after 1988. In 1989 and 1997 oceanic species not normally found in the North Sea were observed there, suggesting pulses of oceanic water had entered the basin and triggered the subsequent ecosystem change. The oceanic water has origins mainly west of Britain in the Rockall Trough, where the long-term mean volume transport is around 3.7 Sv northwards (1 Sv=10 6 m3s-1), but in early 1989 and early 1998 was observed to be more than twice the mean value, reaching over 7 Sv. These periods of high transport coinciding with the inferred pulses of oceanic water into the North Sea suggest a connection through the continental shelf edge current.

We examine the trends and variability in temperature of the northwest European shelf seas over the period 1960–2004 using four approaches: a regional model simulation (using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System; POLCOMS), in situ multi-annual timeseries observations, satellite remote sensed (AVHRR) sea surface temperature (SST), and an analysis of data held in an international database at the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). We focus on variability for the full period and trends from 1985 to 2004, being limited by the length of model simulation and the availability of satellite data. We find that all data sources give a consistent picture, with both trends and variability being intensified on-shelf and north of ∼48°N. The model and AVHRR SST show statistically significant warming trends in large areas of this region that are clearly distinguishable from both model/observation error and natural variability on these timescales. This ‘signal to noise ratio’ is substantially reduced when near bottom temperatures are considered in the model. The long timeseries at Port Erin (Isle of Man) shows that the variation in trend is well represented by the model and that the warming trend in the period 1985–2004 is substantially larger and of longer duration than previous peaks in 20-year trends since 1914. We find that the SST trends are greater in the model and satellite observations than the air temperature trends in the ERA40 re-analysis used for forcing; the net sea to air heat flux is ∼20% less in 1985–2004 than 1960–1984 (including shortwave, longwave, sensible and latent components). This is partly compensated by a ∼9% reduction in advective warming. The model shows the trends in seasonally stratified regions are greater at the surface than at depth, indicating an increase in this stratification. While this pattern is also seen in the annual trends from the ICES data analysis, the lack of seasonal resolution hampers a quantitative corroboration. The model is seen to have good skill in reproducing both the trends and variability, but tends to underestimate the trends. The modelled variability is overestimated in some coastal and open ocean regions and underestimated elsewhere, while the phase of this variability is generally well represented. Generally the model performance is better on-shelf than in the open ocean.

� 10 � 4 m 2 s � 1 commonly occur in the DWBC. These diffusivities, estimated with an internal wave strain-based parameterisation, are independently confirmed by budgets of density and dissolved O2. ‘‘Moderate’’ mixing rates (� 10 � 4 m 2 s � 1 ) over the DWBC path between Denmark Strait and Cape Farewell (� 1000 km) drive a similar net increase in volume transport by diapycnal entrainment to the more intense (� 10 � 3 m 2 s � 1 ), localised mixing rates found near the Denmark Strait overflow sill. Therefore turbulent mixing associated with the DWBC south of Denmark Strait is instrumental in establishing the magnitude of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Elevated mixing rates are also seen in the East and West Greenland Currents; this may be significant in preconditioning seasonal restratification of the intermediate layers of the Irminger and Labrador basins. Citation: Lauderdale, J. M., S. Bacon, A. C. Naveira Garabato, and N. P. Holliday (2008), Intensified turbulent mixing in the boundary current system of southern Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L04611

The East Greenland Current (EGC) and the smaller East Greenland Coastal Current (EGCC) provide the major conduit for cold fresh polar water to enter the lower latitudes of the North Atlantic. They flow equatorward through the western Irminger Basin and around Cape Farewell into the Labrador Sea. The surface circulation and transport of the Cape Farewell boundary current region in summer 2005 is described. The EGCC merges with Arctic waters of the EGC to the south of Cape Farewell, forming the West Greenland Current. The EGC transport decreases from 15.5 Sv south of Cape Farewell to 11.7 Sv in the eastern Labrador Sea (where the water becomes known as Irminger Sea Water). The decrease in EGC transport is balanced by the retroflection of a substantial proportion of the boundary current (5.1 Sv) into the central Irminger Basin; a new pathway for fresh water into the interior of the subpolar gyre.