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The footprint left by development in the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River basin is fundamentally linked to the size, structure, and distribution of the human population across the region. Regional demographic conditions and trends over time provide insight into both why the basin looks as it does today and how it might change in the future. We present analyses of population size and distribution, age structure, immigration, and urban land use within the Great Lakes basin, and across six sub-basins, for the period 1960 to 2011. Since 1960, the population within the basin has increased (reaching 48.5 million people in 2011), become older (a result of both decreasing fertility and increasing life expectancy), and more diverse (as immigrants make up a higher share of the population). A booming population on the Canadian side stands in stark contrast to low growth or even population decline on the US side. Urban sprawl continues to outpace population growth in many areas, even for major US cities experiencing population decline. Looking toward the future, we present three scenarios of change for population, land use, and societal values in 2063 and highlight the role that societal values play in shaping the state of the basin. Ultimately, the state of the Great Lakes basin will be the outcome of many complex drivers of change, where demographics are only one entry-point to understanding potential future states.

This paper offers a potential measurement solution for assessing disaster impacts and subsequent recovery at the household level by using a modified domestic assets index (MDAI) approach. Assessment of the utility of the domestic assets index first proposed by Bates, Killian and Peacock (1984) has been confined to earthquake areas in the Americas and southern Europe. This paper modifies and extends the approach to the Indian sub-continent and to coastal surge hazards utilizing data collected from 1,000 households impacted by the Indian Ocean tsunami (2004) in the Nagapattinam district of south-eastern India. The analyses suggest that the MDAI scale is a reliable and valid measure of household living conditions and is useful in assessing disaster impacts and tracking recovery efforts over time. It can facilitate longitudinal studies, encourage cross-cultural, cross-national comparisons of disaster impacts and inform national and international donors of the itemized monetary losses from disasters at the household level.

We examine the reasons why a US locality would voluntarily commit to the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign. Using geographic information systems analytic techniques, we map and measure a locality's vulnerability to climate-change impacts at the county level of spatial precision. We analyze multiple measures of climate-change vulnerability, including expected temperature change, extreme weather events, and coastal proximity, as well as economic variables, demographic variables, and civic-participation variables that constitute a locality's socioeconomic capacity to commit to costly climate-change policy initiatives. Bivariate and logistic regression results indicate that CCP-committed localities are quantitatively different to noncommitted localities on both climate-change risk and socioeconomic-capacity dimensions. On vulnerability measures, the odds of CCP-campaign participation increase significantly with the number of people killed and injured by extreme weather events, projected temperature change, and coastal proximity. On socioeconomic-capacity measures, the odds of CCP-campaign involvement increase with the percentage of citizens that vote Democrat and recycle, as well as the number of nonprofit organizations with an environment focus. The odds decrease in a county area as the percentage of the labor force employed in carbon-intensive industries increases.

Climate change and mitigation policies adopted by a locality indelibly impact urban form, landscape, and economy. The Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) has become a dominant movement organizing the localities to proactively address climate change. This study examines metropolitan area commitment to the CCP. Geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical techniques are used to analyze metros on dimensions of climate change risk, stress, and civic capacity. “Climate change risk” measures a metro area's coastal proximity, ecosystem sensitivity, and susceptibility to extreme weather events. “Climate change stress” summarizes transportation, energy, and production practices that adversely affect climate systems. “Civic capacity” estimates human capital and environmental concern variables that constitute a metro area's ability to commit to policy initiatives. Statistical results indicate that high stressor areas are significantly less likely to participate in the CCP campaign, and metros high in civic capacity are significantly more likely to commit to the CCP campaign.

Climate scientists note that the effects of climate change vary regionally. Citizen willingness to absorb the costs of adaptation and mitigation policies may correspond with these place-specific effects. Geographic information systems (GIS) analytic techniques are used to map and measure survey respondents' climate change risk at various levels of spatial resolution and precision. Spatial data are used to analyze multiple measures of climate change vulnerability along with demographic, attitudinal, and perception-based variables derived from a representative national survey of U.S. residents to predict variation in support for interventionist climate change policies. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression results show that objective risk measures explain a modest amount of variation in our dependent variable. The effect of risk perception on climate policy support is far more robust. Of all variables examined, the extent to which citizens regard climate change as threatening to their material well-being ...

Recent interest in expanding offshore oil production within waters of the United States has been met with opposition by groups concerned with recreational, environmental, and aesthetic values associated with the coastal zone. Although the proposition of new oil platforms off the coast has generated conflict over how coastal resources should be utilized, little research has been conducted on where these user conflicts might be most intense and which sites might be most suitable for locating oil production facilities in light of the multiple, and often times, competing interests. In this article, we develop a multiple-criteria spatial decision support tool that identifies the potential degree of conflict associated with oil and gas production activities for existing lease tracts in the coastal margin of Texas. We use geographic information systems to measure and map a range of potentially competing representative values impacted by establishing energy extraction infrastructure and then spatially identify which leased tracts are the least contentious sites for oil and gas production in Texas state waters. Visual and statistical results indicate that oil and gas lease blocks within the study area vary in their potential to generate conflict among multiple stakeholders.

A field study team interviewed local government officials, community-based organizations, and nongovernmental organizations to assess community capacity and emergency response to the tsunami. In addition, 1,000 households on the Nagapattinam coast were randomly surveyed to assess household capacity and disaster response. The results presented here show that the district government did have an emergency plan in place, but it was modeled on a neighboring district's plan and focused almost exclusively on floods and drought relief. The local governmental response, therefore, was dominated by skilled improvisation, assisted by state, union, and private sector resources. The nongovernmental and community-based organizations' response was massive, and an attempt was made by the local government to organize and structure the voluntary response.

In recent years, we have seen the terrifying impacts of natural disasters, including Hurricane Katrina, the Wenchuan and Kobe earthquakes, the Fukushima tsunami and nuclear disaster, and, most recently, 2012’s Hurricane Sandy. Globally, the average annual number of natural disasters reported has more than doubled since 1980., These catastrophes are increasing in the number of meteorological events (tropical storms, severe weather, winter storms, hail, tornadoes, and local storms), hydrological events (flash floods, river floods, storm surge, and landslides), and climatological events (heatwaves, freezes, wildfires, and drought). Although geophysical events, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, have remained more stable, there has been catastrophic damage to structures and lives, most notably seen in the Kobe earthquake, Wenchuan earthquake, and, more recently, earthquakes in Haiti in 2010 and Japan in 2011. We are experiencing not only an increased number of events but also an increase in their magnitude or severity. The number of “devastating” catastrophes (those with more than 500 fatalities or more than US$650 million in overall losses) and “great” catastrophes (those with more than 2,000 fatalities, 200,000 homeless, severe hits to the gross domestic product (GDP), or the country being dependent on international support) continues to climb globally (figure 1.1).

The fact basis for both hazard mitigation and comprehensive planning has long been based on hazard exposure and physical or structural vulnerability. As discussed in chapter 4, hazard exposure is a function of the nature of the hazard agent and its potential to affect the geography of urban areas captured in risk maps. Physical or structural vulnerability, on the other hand, is a function of the location of the population and the built environment relative to the hazard. In other words, hazards become disasters when they interact with populated areas. When they strike communities, hazards interact with physical systems that include elements of the built and natural environment that are often taken for granted (figure 5.1). How often do we think about the pipes that carry our water or electricity? Do we ever consider the investment and value of wastewater or sewage facilities and the strength and integrity of our schools or fire stations? Thus, physical vulnerability is the susceptibility to damage and loss based on the interaction between exposure and physical characteristics. These include the following

A critical piece, and often the most neglected piece, of resilience to disaster is the identification and mapping of a community’s social vulnerabilities. When disaster strikes, its impact is not just a function of its magnitude and where it strikes. Development patterns characterized by sprawl, concentrated poverty, and segregation shape urban environments in ways that isolate vulnerable populations so that poor and rich, white and black, owners and renters, primary residents and vacationers, are separated from one another in clusters and pockets across the community. In many communities, if not most, the social geography interacts with the physical geography to expose vulnerable populations to greater risk. Vulnerable populations are less likely to have access to both information and resources that would allow them to anticipate and respond to a real or perceived threat, yet they are more often than not the groups who most need to attend to warnings to evacuate or seek shelter.

Floods continue to pose the greatest threat to the property and safety of human communities among all natural hazards in the United States. This study examines the relationship between the built environment and flood impacts in Texas, which consistently sustains the most damage from flooding of any other state in the country. Specifically, we calculate property damage resulting from 423 flood events between 1997 and 2001 at the county level. We identify the effect of several built environment measures, including wetland alteration, impervious surface, and dams on reported property damage while controlling for biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Statistical results suggest that naturally occurring wetlands play a particularly important role in mitigating flood damage. These findings provide guidance to planners and flood managers on how to alleviate most effectively the costly impacts of foods at the community level.