1. Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen
- Author
-
Magnus Magnusson, Birger Hörnfeldt, Saana Sipari, Magnus Evander, Hussein Khalil, and Frauke Ecke
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Climate Research ,Climate Change ,030231 tropical medicine ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Climate change ,Myodes glareolus ,Puumala virus ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,law.invention ,North ,Zoonosis ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Puumala orthohantavirus ,law ,Effects of global warming ,Animals ,Humans ,Environmental Chemistry ,Zoonotic pathogen ,Ecology ,Arvicolinae ,Winter ,Outbreak ,Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology ,General Medicine ,Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi ,Microbiology (Microbiology in the medical area to be 30109) ,Geography ,Transmission (mechanics) ,Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome ,Seasons ,Research Article - Abstract
Many zoonotic diseases are weather sensitive, raising concern how their distribution and outbreaks will be affected by climate change. At northern high latitudes, the effect of global warming on especially winter conditions is strong. By using long term monitoring data (1980–1986 and 2003–2013) from Northern Europe on temperature, precipitation, an endemic zoonotic pathogen (Puumala orthohantavirus, PUUV) and its reservoir host (the bank vole, Myodes glareolus), we show that early winters have become increasingly wet, with a knock-on effect on pathogen transmission in its reservoir host population. Further, our study is the first to show a climate change effect on an endemic northern zoonosis, that is not induced by increased host abundance or distribution, demonstrating that climate change can also alter transmission intensity within host populations. Our results suggest that rainy early winters accelerate PUUV transmission in bank voles in winter, likely increasing the human zoonotic risk in the North. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01594-y.
- Published
- 2021