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Purpose: The aim of this article is to measure the diversity of rural areas through determining their potential for implementing the agricultural and tourist functions. This in terms of local development level of rural areas in Poland as illustrated by the Greater Poland Voivodeship. Approach/Methodology/Design: The research procedure was conducted in three steps. In the first step, the agricultural and tourist functions were measured, and the relationship between them was identified. In a subsequent step, the social and economic development level of rural areas was identified. The last step involved defining the relationship between the potential of the analysed functions and local development level of the rural areas. Findings: There is a relationship between the agricultural function and the tourist function in the analysed area. This relationship is statistically significant and negatively correlated, which means that the tourism potential of the area decreases as its potential for agricultural development increases. Practical Implications: The result confirms that it is legitimate and necessary to implement development-related tasks which include a territorial approach that refers to all local potentials. Originality/Value: Noticing this fact and taking it into account during the process of programming of local development seems to be of crucial importance for the success of the process of sustainable development of rural areas., peer-reviewed

The central stock of northern anchovy (CSNA; Engraulis mordax), the most abundant small pelagic fish in the southern California Current, is key to ecosystem functions. We review drivers of its population dynamics in relation to management. Springtime upwelling intensity lagged by 2 years co-varied positively with CSNA biomass, as did the abundance of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax; weakly negative). CSNA population dynamics indicate the need for a multi-species stock assessment, but given serious challenges with modelling population collapse and recovery dynamics, and its moderate fisheries, we suggest that sensible management could be a simple 2-tier harvest control rule designed to emphasize the key trophic role of CSNA in the ecosystem while maintaining moderate socio-economic services. We recommend a monitoring fishery of no more than 5 KMT year−1 split between central and southern California when the stock falls below the long-term median abundance estimate of 380 KMT across the California portion of its range, and a catch limit of 25 KMT year−1 when the stock is above this reference point. This rule would be precautionary, serving to maintain the most important small pelagic forage in the ecosystem, various fisheries interests, and information streams when the population is in a collapsed state.

The article highlights the results of the analysis of domestic and foreign experience of application of the applied coatings and a modified typology of roofs based on their geometric and structural features is proposed. The following factors that influence taking the decision on the need and directions of the use of the used roofs are provided. On the basis of the analysis of the dynamics of the normative and actual indicators of urban development, the constant growth of the development density and growth of the lack of territory for greenery and other elements of the population service are proved. The described methods for the determination of the resource potential of urban areas are normative method, comparative and calculation method. A new calculation method for identifying potential territorial resources of micro districts, blocks or individual plots due to the use of exploited roofs in conditions of compacted urban development has been proposed. The mathematical model is based on taking into account the geometric type of the roof, type of historically originated development, its technical condition and the availability of the status of the cultural heritage monument. Coefficients for the calculation of the potential territorial resource have been experimentally determined. Based on the example of Kyiv, using GIS-technologies, a specialized database for identifying a potential territorial resource has been formed. The recommendations for placement on different types of objects on the exploited roofs depending on the frequency of their visit and the cityplanning situation have been provided. The methodical scheme for the determination of a potential territorial resource due to the use of exploited roofs in the development of urban planning, design and land management documentation has been proposed.

The aim of this study is to discuss changes in thepopulation and indicate the main reasons of these changes inrural areas of West Pomeranian voivodeship. The study wasconducted on the local level and based on Central StatisticalOffice data from the years 2010 to 2014. In the first part ofthe research, main demographic information is discussed. Itincludes population density, natural increase per 1000 populationand net migration per 1000 population in rural areasof West Pomeranian voivodeship. In the next part of the research,the average population growth rate was counted in theyears 2011–2014. Based on these changes, researched unitswere divided into four groups – two groups with positivechanges and two groups with negative changes. Subsequently,the main reasons of the changes in population size were analyzedin particular groups including natural increase, migration,population structure by age, level of unemployment andentrepreneurship. All indicators were designated as averagesfrom 2011 to 2014. According to the results in most of the researchunits, the net migration determined the population size.The net migration was characterized by higher absolute valuesthan natural increase. The population size changes are relatedto density. The lowest density areas are more depopulated.Moreover, the population size changes are positive related tothe level of entrepreneurship and negative related to the levelof unemployment.

Research background: Rural areas in Poland occupy more than 93% of the country’s area. This high share somehow automatically becomes a source of causes and effects of differences both at the regional and local level. Development disproportions in rural areas become vividly visible in the places of accumulation of developmental barriers, which derive from the effect of social, economic, environmental and historical factors. The arguments which refer to the place-based policy stress the fact that making use of the unused potential of intermediate and poorly developed territories may actually influence the local and national level of development (Farole et al., 2011). Rural areas, especially peripheral areas, are undoubtedly the territories of unused potential. Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to measure the socioeconomic development, including the spatial diversification leading to the development of rural peripheral areas. Methods: Development is a multidimensional phenomenon. There-fore, its level will be determined by means of the synthetic feature. The synthetic feature will be used as the starting point for identification of peripheral areas and their delimitation. The Jenks method was applied to group entities into classes characterised by similar levels of development (Jenks Natural Breaks Classifica-tion, Jenks, 1967). The spatial scope of the research comprises rural areas in Poland in the western borderland, i.e. West Pomeranian, Lubuskie and Lower Silesian Voivodeships. The research subject were rural and rural-urban communes of the regions under investigation. The empirical material were obtained from the following sources: the Local Data Bank of the Central Statistical Office, unpublished data of the Agricultural Property Agency. Measurements referred to 2015.The object of the study was the development of rural areas in the western borderland, which was identified by comparison of the synthetic features of the following factors: location rent, technical infrastructure, social infrastructure, human capital, social capital and local finance. Findings & value added: The results of the analysis showed significant differences level of socioeconomic development of rural areas in the western borderland. The research findings did not show a simple dependence between rural development and the share of former state-owned farms in the communes. Areas with a high share of former state-owned farms could be found both in the group of best- and least-developed communes. Due to the range of research, it is illegitimate to make other than intuitive inferences. Thus, we can intuitively indicate that the following group of factors triggered the process of development and helped to break the barriers resulting from the liquidation of state-owned farms: location in an urban agglomeration, natural and tourist values as well as the activity of local authorities. The research should be continued in order to identify the factors and pathways of development in individual areas under analysis.

As it becomes ever clearer that on longer time scales marine ecosystems function as non-linear “complex adaptive systems”, potential consequences of global change become obscured within a maze of multiple possibilities. This essay attempts to route one pathway to a potentially more robust conceptual synthesis, employing the globally important example of anchovies and sardines as a model. Expressly, the anchovy emerges as an efficient specialist of neritic origin. In contrast, the sardine's oceanic-based adaptations equip it to deal with intermittent episodes of poorly productive conditions and to take advantage of associated reduction in predation pressure on early life stages of their offspring. Based on the overall synthesis, the nimble, wide-ranging, actively opportunistic sardine appears notably well equipped to deal with climate-related disruptions and dislocations and even to profit from their adverse effects on predators and competitors. Global-scale multispecies population synchronies in the 1970s to the mid-1980s suggest that a variety of different species types might be flagged for investigation as perhaps embodying similar “active opportunist” attributes. If so, events and anecdotes might, as global changes proceed, be viewed within a developing universal framework that could support increasingly effective transfers of experience and predictive foresight across different species groups and regional ecosystems.

The principle of geologic and geomorphologic nature monuments classification has been observed. The principles of nature monuments dividing into classes, types and kinds have been proposed. The methodological aspects of making the passport list of geologic and geomorphologic natural monuments have been analyzed. The examples of making the passport list of cave and lake in the mountain part of river Cheremosh basin has been described. Key words: nature monuments, geology-geomorphologic monuments, classification, making the passport list, inventory.

We present validations and applications of the numerical Discontinuous Deformation Analysis method (DDA) for different cases of dynamic loading in the context of rock mass deformation. Following a review of 2D and 3D-DDA validations against analytical solutions for single and double face sliding, we present dynamic DDA applications in natural rock slopes and underground openings. Modelling dynamic rock slope deformation is demonstrated using the case of Masada rock slopes, with some new findings on the dynamic deformation of overhanging cliffs in general. Modelling underground deformation is demonstrated using the case of an active open pit mine in Israel developed in a rock mass containing multiple karstic caverns. The DDA method is shown here to be a powerful numerical tool for modelling dynamic rock mass deformation when the interaction between multiple discrete elements dictates the expected global deformation.

The largest historical earthquake in the northern Great Plains occurred on 16 May 1909. Our analysis of intensity assignments places the earthquake location (48.81° N, 105.38° W) close to the Montana–Saskatchewan border with an intensity magnitude M I of 5.3–5.4. Observations from two seismic observatories in Europe give an average M s value of 5.3. The 1909 earthquake is near an alignment of epicenters of small earthquakes in Montana and Saskatchewan and on strike with the mapped Hinsdale fault in Montana. Thus, the 1909 earthquake may have occurred on a 300-km-long seismically active fault, which could have seismic-hazard implications for the region, particularly for the hydraulically emplaced earth-filled Fort Peck Dam, constructed in the 1930s on the Missouri River in northeast Montana.

The limiting relationship is explored between underground opening span and required cover height for stability in blocky rock masses characterized by a network of horizontal bedding planes and vertical joints. Understanding this relationship is crucial for the design of mining excavations in karstic terrain as typically encountered in carbonate rock masses. We perform numerical analysis of multiple roof spans vs. cover height geometries using the DDA method to obtain the boundary curve between stable and unstable opening geometries. Our results indicate that for cavern spans of up to 18 m a low cover height vs. opening span ratio of h/B=0.33 is sufficient for stability. For spans greater than 18 m the demand for cover height rapidly increases and it appears to stabilize at h/B=1.0 for B=26 m and above. To validate our numerical analysis results, a unique case study is analyzed wherein a 40 m span karstic cavern, the Ayalon cave, has been preserved below an active open pit mine in central Israel with cover height of only 30 m, thus rendering the cave marginally stable according to our model prediction. Indeed there is ample evidence of partial collapse of the roof in the cave. The predictive capability of our model is further confirmed using two additional case studies in blocky rock masses, each of which possesses very different mechanical parameters such as intact rock strength, density, and deformability, suggesting that our model predictions remain valid as long the rock mass maintains a “blocky” structural configuration.

This study focuses on a mesoscale eddy feature, the ‘Capricorn Eddy’, that typically forms within an indentation of the continental shelf in the southern GBR system. Satellite data at moderate resolution (1 km) are used to examine relevant mesoscale and sub-mesoscale sea surface dynamics. Available in situ measurements and model data are used to validate the satellite observations and to specify the nature of the processes occurring within the water column itself. The characteristic features are identified and physical theory employed to develop an understanding of associated processes. In particular, the effect of the eddy in raising cooler, nutrient-enriched oceanic subsurface water and transporting it to the reef zone, and eventually into the lagoon, is shown. This study demonstrates that the linkages between large-scale oceanography and the meso- and sub-mesoscale patterns are crucial to determining biologic responses on the scale of reef communities and may be key to understanding climate change impacts at the relevant spatial scales.

Major fish populations in large marine ecosystems separated by thousands of kilometres often seem to fluctuate in decadal-scale synchrony indicating strong forcing of ecosystem processes and population dynamics by regional and global climatic variability. The climate signals propagating through the atmosphere appear to act as synchronizing agents leading to teleconnection patterns between distant marine ecosystems and populations. This review is an attempt (i) to summarize these apparent within and between ocean basin teleconnection patterns in a comparative framework using particularly suggestive examples and (ii) to unravel physical–biological linkage mechanisms between a climate signal and fish populations. Synchronies in the timing of physical and biological processes between the Kuroshio and the Humboldt Current ecosystems are particularly striking. The collapse of the Peruvian anchovy in 1971 and the rapid decrease of the Japanese anchovy seem not to be directly associated with climate indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The “climate regime shift” in the mid-1970s in the North Pacific indicated by the PDO is not reflected in the dynamics of anchovies and sardines and other main components in both ecosystems, whereas the Asian Winter Monsoon Index (MOI) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) seem to correlate with these events, at least in the Northwest Pacific. We speculate that the synchrony between processes in the Kuroshio and Humboldt systems is brought about by changes in the basin-scale coupled ocean–atmosphere circulation in North and South Pacific basins. The example of European aquatic systems describes physical–biological synchronies for which the NAO appears to be the synchronizing agent. When the NAO index changed in the late 1980s from a negative to a positive phase, a coherent increase in water temperature was observed in the Central Baltic, the North Sea, the NW Mediterranean and north and central European lakes which was associated with regime shifts in all these ecosystems and which involved all trophic levels. Finally, apparent physical–biological synchronies between the Pacific and Atlantic basins are presented. It is concluded that the multi-regional, multi-species comparative approach, in which the available time series can be considered as different realizations of a common set of basic issues, may be the only way to make real progress.

The marine ecosystem located off the coast of central and northern Peru has stood as the “world’s champion” producer, by far, of exploitable fish biomass, generally yielding more than 20 times the tonnage of fishery landings produced by other comparable regional large marine ecosystems of the world’s oceans that operate under similar dynamic contexts and are characterized by comparable, or even greater, basic primary production. Two potentially contributing aspects are discussed from a framework of interregional comparative pattern recognition: (1) the advantageous low-latitude situation that combines strong upwelling-based nutrient enrichment with low wind-induced turbulence generation and relatively extended mean “residence times” within the favorable upwelling-conditioned near-coastal habitat and (2) the cyclic “re-setting” of the system by ENSO perturbations that may tend to interrupt malignant growth of adverse self-amplifying feedback loops within the nonlinear biological dynamics of the ecosystem. There is a developing scientific consensus that one of the more probable consequences of impending global climate changes will be a general slowing of the equatorial Pacific Walker Circulation and a consequent weakening of the Pacific trade wind system. Since the upwelling-favorable winds off Peru tend to flow directly into the Pacific southeast trade winds, a question arises as to the likely effect on the upwelling-producing winds that power the productivity of the regional coastal ecosystems of the Peru–Humboldt Current zone. It is argued that the effects will in fact be decoupled to the extent that upwelling-favorable winds will actually tend to increase off Peru. Data demonstrative of this decoupling are presented. A tendency for less intense El Nino episodes in the future is also suggested. These conclusions provide a framework for posing certain imponderables as to the future character of the Peruvian marine ecosystem and of the fisheries it supports.

Modified Mercalli intensity (mmi) assignments, instrumental moment magnitudes M , and epicenter locations of thirteen 5.6 ≤ M ≤ 7.1 “training-set” events in southern California were used to obtain the attenuation relation mmi = 1.64 + 1.41 M − 0.00526 * Δ h − 2.63 * log Δ h , where Δ h is the hypocentral distance in kilometers and M is moment magnitude. Intensity magnitudes M I and locations for five 5.9 ≤ M ≤ 7.3 independent test events were consistent with the instrumental source parameters. Fourteen “historical” earthquakes between 1890 and 1927 were then analyzed. Of particular interest are the M I 7.2 9 February 1890 and M I 6.6 28 May 1892 earthquakes, which were previously assumed to have occurred near the southern San Jacinto fault; a more likely location is in the Eastern California Shear Zone (ecsz). These events, and the 1992 M 7.3 Landers and 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine events, suggest that the ecsz has been seismically active since at least the end of the nineteenth century. The earthquake catalog completeness level in the ecsz is ∼ M 6.5 at least until the early twentieth century. Online material : Figures and table of empirical mmi site corrections.

Bayesian inference provides a method to use seismic intensity data or instrumental locations, together with geologic and seismologic data, to make quan- titative estimates of the probabilities that specific past earthquakes are associated with specific faults. Probability density functions are constructed for the location of each earthquake, and these are combined with prior probabilities through Bayes' theorem to estimate the probability that an earthquake is associated with a specific fault. Results using this method are presented here for large, preinstrumental, his- torical earthquakes and for recent earthquakes with instrumental locations in the San Francisco Bay region. The probabilities for individual earthquakes can be summed to construct a probabilistic frequency-magnitude relationship for a fault segment. Other applications of the technique include the estimation of the probability of back- ground earthquakes, that is, earthquakes not associated with known or considered faults, and the estimation of the fraction of the total seismic moment associated with earthquakes less than the characteristic magnitude. Results for the San Francisco Bay region suggest that potentially damaging earthquakes with magnitudes less than the characteristic magnitudes should be expected. Comparisons of earthquake locations and the surface traces of active faults as determined from geologic data show sig- nificant disparities, indicating that a complete understanding of the relationship be- tween earthquakes and faults remains elusive.

Summaries of maritime weather reports and mean seasonal satellite-sensed ocean colour distributions for the Mediterranean Sea are used to identify characteristic configurations of physical mechanisms promoting (i) nutrient enrichment, (ii) concentration of larval food distributions, and (iii) local retention of eggs and larvae. Five subbasin scale ‘ocean triads’, hypothesized to be particularly favourable groupings, are identified in the Aegean Sea, the Gulf of Lions and nearby Catalan Coast, the Alboran Sea, the Straits of Sicily/Tunisian Coast, and the Adriatic Sea. These are examined in relation to available knowledge of anchovy spawning grounds. All areas are characterized by patterns of linked wind-driven Ekman upwelling and downwelling. All areas except the Straits of Sicily are found to have inputs of less saline surface waters offering raised nutrient concentrations, enhanced upper layer stability, and frontal density contrasts, and to have areas where the characteristic rate of turbulent mixing energy input by the wind fall below a reference intensity level. All areas, except the Sicilian Channel/ Tunisian Coast, also contain abundant locally reproducing anchovy populations.

Poland), being the large Ediacaran continental igneous province, that covers an area of 200 000 km 2 in the western margin of East European Craton. The series is underlain by the Cryogenian terrigenous Polesie Series with doleritic sills and dikes. The Volhynian Series consists of the rock beds belonging to the three volcanic cycles with dierent ratios of flood basalts to pyroclastics. The aim of the study was recognition of primary and secondary Fe-bearing minerals, particularly Fe- and Fe-Ti oxides as well as determination of iron oxidation state, that is an important tool in the search for native copper deposits in these rocks. For Mossbauer studies the following rock samples were chosen: the Polesie Series dolerites, the Volhynian Series basalts from the Ukrainian quarries

At least three moment magnitude (M) 7 earthquakes occurred along California9s north coast in the second half of the nineteenth century. The M 7.3 earthquake on 23 November 1873 occurred near the California-Oregon coast and likely was located on the Cascadia subduction zone or within the North American plate. The M 7.0+ earthquake on 9 May 1878 was located about 75 km offshore near the Mendocino fault. The surface-wave magnitude ( M S ) 7.0 earthquake on 16 April 1899 was located about 150 km offshore within the Gorda plate. There were at least three M 7 north-coast earthquakes in the 35 years before 1906, two M 7 earthquakes in the 20 years after 1906, no M 7 earthquakes from 1923 until 1980, and four M 7 earthquakes since 1980. The relative seismic quiescence after 1906 for M 7 earthquakes along California9s north coast mimics the post-1906 seismic quiescence in the San Francisco Bay area for M 6 earthquakes. The post-1906 relative quiescence did not extend to lower magnitudes in either area. The 18 April 1906 earthquake apparently influenced the rate of occurrence of M 7 north-coast earthquakes as it apparently influenced the rate of M 6 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area. The relative seismic quiescence along the California north-coast region after 1906 should be taken into account when evaluating seismic hazards in northwest California.

6 Introduction 7 Features of interest included in this catalog 8 Source Search Method 9 The Bulletins from the meteorological observatory in Port-au-Prince, Haiti 12 Catalog of earthquakes with their descriptions 13 Earthquakes from 1500 to the end of the 17th Century 15 Earthquakes of the 18th Century 20 Earthquakes of the 19th Century 53 Selected Earthquakes of the 20th Century 95 Other Significant Earthquakes of the Caribbean 149 Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands 149 Lesser Antilles 154 List of Events Studied by the Authors 171 Maps of the Northern Caribbean 173 Historical events of interest on the island of Hispaniola 175 Index of Earthquakes by Island and by Year 177 References Cited 180 Additional Material 191 Quoted text extracted from de Utrera (1995, p. 17–18) explaining that the true date of the “1564” earthquake is actually December 2, 1562, based on evidence from contemporary source 191 Geographic locations used in the catalog for the Northern Caribbean 193

High rates of marine primary production, as well as most world fishery production, are confined to coastal regions. There are three categories of nutrient enrichment processes: (1) coastal upwelling, (2) tidal mixing, and (3) land-based runoff and major river outflow. These are depicted on a single map as a basis for identificaiton of groups of regional marine ecosystems that may have analogous aspects with respect to basic modes of enrichment. These groupings may provide a rational framework for comparative ecological studies. The concept of the marine catchment basin (MCB) is stressed as representing the logical unit for management of anthropogenic effects on any marine ecosystem that is substantially affected by terrestrial runoff.

[1] We evaluate the long-term seismic activity of the North-American/Caribbean plate boundary from 500 years of historical earthquake damage reports. The 2010 Haiti earthquakes and other earthquakes were used to derive regional attenuation relationships between earthquake intensity, magnitude, and distance from the reported damage to the epicenter, for Hispaniola and for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The attenuation relationship for Hispaniola earthquakes and northern Lesser Antilles earthquakes is similar to that for California earthquakes, indicating a relatively rapid attenuation of damage intensity with distance. Intensities in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands decrease less rapidly with distance. We use the intensity-magnitude relationships to systematically search for the location and intensity magnitude MI which best fit all the reported damage for historical earthquakes. Many events occurred in the 20th-century along the plate-boundary segment from central Hispaniola to the NW tip of Puerto Rico, but earlier events from this segment were not identified. The remaining plate boundary to the east to Guadeloupe is probably not associated with M > 8 historical subduction-zone earthquakes. The May 2, 1787 earthquake, previously assigned an M 8–8.25, is probably only MI 6.9 and could be located north, west or SW of Puerto Rico. An MI 6.9 earthquake on July 11, 1785 was probably located north or east of the Virgin Islands. We located MI < 8 historical earthquakes on April 5, 1690, February 8, 1843, and October 8, 1974 in the northern Lesser Antilles within the arc. We speculate that the December 2, 1562 (MI 7.7) and May 7, 1842 (MI 7.6) earthquakes ruptured the Septentrional Fault in northern Hispaniola. If so, the recurrence interval on the central Septentrional Fault is ∼300 years, and only 170 years has elapsed since the last event. The recurrence interval of large earthquakes along the Hispaniola subduction segment is likely longer than the historical record. Intra-arc M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes may occur every 75–100 years in the 410-km-long segment between the Virgin Islands and Guadeloupe.

The M w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake occurred on 12 May 2008 at 14:28 China standard time (06:28 UTC) in the middle of the day. People were caught by surprise because this region, along the edge of the Tibetan plateau, was not listed as a place with a high seismic hazard. Destruction was huge. More than four million inhabitants were left homeless. Casualties numbered more than 80,000 people, and there were major economic losses. This event was one of the deadliest earthquakes in China during the last few centuries, after the Haiyuan earthquake in 1920 and the Tangshan earthquake in 1976, which claimed 200,000 and 250,000 lives, respectively. The Wenchuan earthquake occurred a few months before the beginning of the 2008 Olympic games, held in Beijing, China, and the emergency response from the government of the Republic of China was massive. In part, for efficiency during this tremendous rescue effort, scientists had difficulty gaining access to the field for the first several months. Such difficulties have partly hampered deployment of temporary networks of survey equipment, such as GPS or seismic stations by international teams, as is often the case after a major earthquake. Along with the M w 7.7 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake in 1999 and the M w 7.6 Kashmir earthquake in 2005, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is one of the largest continental thrust earthquakes with excellent field observations that was well recorded by a variety of geophysical networks. Hence, it remains a primary target for understanding strain-accommodation processes in a compressive environment. In addition, the Wenchuan earthquake, which occurred in the Longmen Shan range at the edge of the Tibetan plateau, has called into question certain viewpoints held by the scientific community. GPS results have repeatedly shown almost no signal across the Longmen Shan fault system, and for decades, many …

[1] The similarity of seismograms recorded by two seismic stations demonstrate that the 31 October 2007 moment magnitude M5.4 Alum Rock earthquake is a repeat of a 1955 ML5.5 earthquake. Both occurred on Oppenheimer et al.'s (1990) Zone V “stuck patch” on the central Calaveras fault, providing new support for their model of Calaveras fault earthquake activity. We suggest that Zone V fails only in a family of recurring M ∼ 5.4–5.5 earthquakes. The 1955 and 2007 earthquakes are the penultimate and ultimate Zone V events. Earthquakes in 1891 and 1864 are possible earlier Zone V events. The next Zone V event is not expected in the next few decades, assuming a time-dependent recurrence model: the mean forecast date is 2064 (2035–2104, 95% confidence range). We further suggest that Zones I, II, III, and IV fail in recurring M ∼ 5.1–5.3, M ∼ 5.6–5.8, M ∼ 6.1–6.3, and M ∼ 4.9–5.0 earthquakes, respectively. If our earthquake recurrence model is correct, the next Zone I event is overdue and could occur anytime, and M5–6 earthquakes should not occur on Zones II, III, and IV before 2014, 2012, and 2026, respectively. We cannot rule out the possibility that Zone VI, which lies at the southern end of the Mission Seismic Trend, where the southern Hayward and central Calaveras faults appear to connect at depth, fails aseismically or in large events on the southern Hayward fault, such as last occurred in 1868, or in large events on the adjoining northern Calaveras fault segment.

Chemical Th–U–total Pb (CHIME) dating of monazite by electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) and proton microprobe (PIXE) was carried out on felsic granulites from Stary Gieraltow, Poland, which represent part of the Orlica-Śnieznik Dome in the NE Bohemian Massif. Analyzed monazite is characterized by mosaic zoning rather than simple core-to-rim growth, and strontium contents of up to 750ppm. An isochron age of 347 ± 13Ma represents timing of amphibolite-facies metamorphism, in agreement with previously published estimates.

Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) assignments for earthquakes in eastern North America (ENA) were used by Bakun et al. (2003) and Bakun and Hopper (in press) to develop models for estimating the location and moment magnitude M of earthquakes in ENA from MMI observations. The MMI empirical site corrections developed and used by Bakun et al. (2003) and Bakun and Hopper (in press) are listed in this Open-file

Although three 1969 exploration wells discovered hydrocarbons in the Aurora structure, development was not possible until a scope change to the V-200 exploration well demonstrated commerciality 30-years later. Commencing in June 2000, an aggressive 6-well horizontal and vertical development/appraisal program yielded over 1.75 million barrels of oil in the first year and provided a better understanding of a reservoir previously thought marginally commercial. Investment in reservoir description and proactive surveillance led to accurate decision-making, and with innovations, yielded significant return from a "marginal" field.

The historical file of wind observations from maritime weather reports is summarized to identify the characteristic seasonal distributions of wind-induced Ekman upwelling and downwelling in the Mediterranean Sea. Both coastal upwelling/downwelling and wind-stress curl-driven open ocean upwelling/downwelling are treated in a unified description. Vigorous upwelling zones are found in the eastern Aegean Sea, off the west coast of Greece, and in the Gulf of Lyons. The southern coast of the Mediterranean is found to be primarily a downwelling area, although significant coastal upwelling does appear in the Gulf of Sidra during the spring and summer seasons, and along the Algerian coast during summer., No disponible

The Bay Bridges down hole network consists of sensors in bore holes that are drilled 100 ft. into bedrock around and in the San Francisco Bay. Between 2 and 8 instruments have been spaced along the Dumbarton, San Mateo, Bay, and San Rafael bridges. The instruments will provide multiple use data that is important to geotechnical, structural engineering, and seismological studies. The holes are between 100 and 1000 ft deep and were drilled by Caltrans. There are twenty- one sensor packages at fifteen sites. Extensive financial support is being contributed by Caltrans, UCB, LBL, LLNL-LDRD, U.C. Campus/Laboratory Collaboration (CLC) program, and USGS. The down hole instrument package contains a three component HS-1 seismometer and three orthogonal Wilcox 73 1 accelerometers, and is capable of recording a micro g from local M = 1.0 earthquakes to 0.5 g strong ground motion form large Bay Area earthquakes.

Recent large-amplitude interdecadal-scale population variations in some of the world’s largest fishery stocks have exhibited a remarkable degree of global synchrony. This leads to several conclusions: (1) on these scales, the individual regional fish communities are not driven entirely by their own autonomous dynamics; (2) the biological linkages must therefore be quite simple; (3) the problem of radical interdecadal fish stock variability would consequently appear to be eminently solvable. A ‘fundamental triad’ of enrichment, concentration and retention processes, augments the trophic energy in supporting biological processes with the mechanical energy of the earth’s ocean—atmosphere system. Examples of such triad configurations in coastal upwelling regions may help scientific understanding of some crucial fisheries issues. The idea that experimental adaptive management could proceed effectively without a well-founded system of accounting for natural environmental variability is challenged.

Coda-duration τ at 42 of the stations in the U.S. Geological Survey9s central California seismic network (CALNET) for earthquakes in five source regions of central California—the Parkfield and San Juan Bautista sections of the San Andreas fault, the Sargent fault, the Coyote Lake section of the Calaveras fault, and the Livermore area—are used to obtain empirical formulas relating local magnitude M L and seismic moment M 0 to τ and epicentral distance Δ. Models with log 2 τ fit the data better than those assuming a log τ dependence. For 55 earthquakes with 1.1. ≦ M L ≦ 5.3, M L = 0.92 + 0.607 (±0.005)log 2 τ + 0.00268(± 0.00012)Δ. These M L assume a Wood-Anderson seismograph magnification of 2800; 0.15 should be subtracted from these M L for continuity with magnitudes obtained from or calibrated against typical (magnification ∼ 2000) Wood-Anderson seismographs. For 53 earthquakes with 18.4 ≦ log M 0 ≦ 22.3, log M 0 = 17.97 + 0.719(± 0.0007)log 2 τ + 0.00319(±0.00013)Δ. These relations provide unbiased estimates of M L for 1.5 ≲ M L ≲ 5.3 and 19 ≲ log M 0 ≲ 22.3. Station corrections can significantly improve the accuracy and precision of M L and log M 0 estimates, particularly if τ from a small number of stations are used. Regional variations in station corrections reflect an increase in coda duration toward the south within the CALNET.

Seismograms and accelerograms from 77 earthquakes in 1982 to 1984 near the northwest end of the Red River fault in western Yunnan Province, Peoples Republic of China, have been used to calculate seismic moment, M 0 , and local magnitude, M L , using techniques established in California. For 1 1 2 ≲ M L ≲ 3 1 2 , log M 0 = 16.97 + (1.17 ± 0.05) M L , consistent with the log M 0 − M L relation appropriate for central California. A comparison of these M L values and the coda duration magnitudes M and S -wave amplitude magnitudes M ˜ assigned by the Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province suggests that M and M ˜ values are generally larger than the M L values. For 1.7 ≦ M ≦ 5.3, M L = 0.49 + (0.67 ± 0.04) M and log M 0 = 17.30 + (0.86 ± 0.04) M . For 2.0 ≦ M ˜ ≦ 5.4, M L = 0.24 + (0.76 ± 0.05) M ˜ and log M 0 = 17.06 + (0.95 ± 0.05) M ˜.

Onscale seismograms recorded at stations in the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) central California seismic network (CALNET) have been used to estimate the seismic moment M0 and local magnitude ML for earthquakes of 1 ≦ ML ≦ 4 located on the San Juan Bautista and Parkfield sections of the San Andreas fault, the Coyote Lake section of the Calaveras fault, the Sargent fault, and near Livermore. These data, together with M0 and ML estimates for 4 ≦ ML ≦ 6 earthquakes in these areas, cannot be fit with a single linear log M0-versus-ML relation. Rather, the data are consistent with log M0 = 1.5 ML + 16 for 3 ≲ ML ≲ 6, with log M0 = 1.2 ML + 17 for 1 1/2 ≲ ML ≲ 3 1/2 and with a slope of ⅔ to 1 fro 1/2 ≲ ML ≲ 1 1/2.Whereas USGS coda duration magnitude MD is consistent with ML for 1 1/2 ≲ ML ≲ 3¼, MD is larger than ML at ML ≲ 1 1/2 and smaller than ML at ML ≳ 3¼. Log M0 can be estimated to a precision of 0.2 for 1 ≦ MD ≦ 3 1/2 earthquakes in central California by applying log M0 = 1.2 MD + 17 to the MD that have been routinely published by the USGS.

Main shocks of the earthquake sequences that occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in central California in 1922, 1934, and 1966 are characterized by southeast rupture expansion over the same 20- to 30-km-long section of the fault. Whereas the seismic moments for the 1922 and 1934 events are identical to within a precision of 10%, the seismic moment for 1966 is 20% greater than for the earlier events to within a precision of 20%. The Parkfield area seismicity, in general, seems well described by a recurring moderate size characteristic earthquake, repeating the same epicenter, magnitude, seismic moment, rupture area, and southeast direction of rupture expansion. An unexplained 10 year advance of the 1934 event is the only discrepancy in the hypothesis that the Parkfield earthquakes in 1857, 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966 represent a strictly periodic process. Assuming the strictly periodic model and the absence since 1966 of the perturbations hypothesized for the 1922 to 1934 period, the next characteristic Parkfield earthquake should occur between 1983 and 1993.

Wood-Anderson seismograms recorded at Mount Hamilton (MHC, 185 km, 327°), Santa Barbara (SBC, 180 km, 158°), and Tinemaha (TIN, 240 km, 56°) provide data for comparing P-wave spectra for two immediate (17-min) foreshocks, one early (55-hr) foreshock, two aftershocks, and two “isolated” Parkfield earthquakes. All are ML 5.0 shocks with epicenters within 7 km of the common epicenter of the 1934 and 1966 Parkfield main shocks. The set of events is well suited for testing the hypothesis that foreshocks are high-stress-drop sources. Calculated stress drops are controlled by source directivity at azimuths aligned with the fault break (at MHC and SBC). P-wave radiation from the three foreshocks is focused along one fault trace azimuth, suggesting that foreshock sources are characterized by pronounced unilateral rupture expansion. At TIN, broadside to the fault where directivity has minimum effect on calculated relative stress drop, the two immediate foreshocks are higher stress-drop sources. The early foreshock is a low-to-average stress-drop source, indicating the possibility that stress concentration is a rapidly occurring phenomenon in rupture nucleation. Alternatively, the stress field is highly variable on the scale of 2 to 3 km in the focal region of an impending earthquake with a rupture length of 20 to 30 km.

Primary organic production was measured at 231 stations in the western Indian Ocean. Low levels were measured in the eastern part of the region, both north and south of the Equator. Intermediate levels were encountered in the equatorial area, in the Mozambique Channel, and in the southern part of the region. High productivity was observed in the northern and western portions, particularly in the western Arabian Sea. The high productivity of the Arabian Sea is attributed to the presence of unusually high concentrations of plant nutrients that extend nearly to the sea surface, from which there is ready transport into the euphotic zone by local advective processes. The distributional pattern of the nutrients, in turn, is believed to result from a major system of upwelling, whereby water from intermediate depths is transported north across the Equator and towards the surface, compensating for the southerly flow of surface water and its loss from the Arabian Sea. The fertility of the region is further enhanced by the mechanism of a nutrient trap which is inherent in all countercurrent upwelling systems. Annual organic production for the 23 × 106 km2 area studied was 3 × 1012 kg, averaging about twice that of the oceans as a whole.

The characteristics of the Parkfield, California earthquake sequence of 1966 are presented. Historically, the epicentral region is one of the three most seismic areas along the San Andreas fault in central California. It is characterized, however, by a relatively high incidence of large earthquakes in proportion to smaller shocks, compared to other active zones. The 1966 sequence occurred in an area where measured deformation across the fault for 1959-1965 shows a decrease from about 2 cm/year to the north to zero to the south of the area. Neither micro-earthquake nor normal seismic activity prior to the sequence gave indication of its coming. Seismicity before the sequence was confined to the north of the active zone, with some indication of convergence of foci toward the location of the initial shocks. The early aftershock distribution extended 20 km south of the main shock; cracking occurred to 33 km south of the main shock; and intense aftershock activity for the entire sequence extended 27 km south of the main shock. At least 95 per cent of the earthquakes, including the three largest, have P-wave radiation patterns consistent with right lateral transcurrent motion on the San Andreas fault. Earthquakes of the sequence fall very closely along the fault trace. About 75 per cent of the total strain release for the sequence can be accounted for by earthquakes in the main shock region, the principal shock (M = 5.5) contributing only 25 per cent of the total. The sequence is characterized by a high incidence of large aftershocks, an extensive area of aftershock activity, and average focal depths near 5 km-three properties apparently related, and distinguishing two types of sequence traits in central California.

Moderate-size earthquakes occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in central California in 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and in 1966. The earlier Parkfield earthquakes were similar to the 1966 event, leading to the hypothesis of a characteristic Parkfield earthquake with recurring, recognizable source features. A simple recurrence model that explains most of the historic seismicity near Parkfield implies that the next characteristic Parkfield earthquake will occur within a ten year time window centered on 1987–1988. A Parkfield Prediction Experiment, designed to monitor the details of the final stages of the earthquake preparation process is underway. Observations and reports of anomalous seismicity and aseismic slip preceding the last characteristic earthquake in 1966 constitute much of the basis for the design of the Parkfield Prediction Experiment; other design considerations involve testing models of the deformation process leading to failure.