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Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are hypothesis-free studies that estimate the association between polymorphisms across the genome with a trait of interest. To increase power and to estimate the direct effects of these single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on a trait GWAS are often conditioned on a covariate (such as body mass index or smoking status). This adjustment can introduce bias in the estimated effect of the SNP on the trait. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) studies use summary statistics from GWAS estimate the causal effect of a risk factor (or exposure) on an outcome. Covariate adjustment in GWAS can bias the effect estimates obtained from MR studies conducted using covariate adjusted GWAS data. Multivariable MR (MVMR) is an extension of MR that includes multiple traits as exposures. Here we propose the use of MVMR to correct the bias in MR studies from covariate adjustment. We show how MVMR can recover unbiased estimates of the direct effect of the exposure of interest by including the covariate used to adjust the GWAS within the analysis. We apply this method to estimate the effect of systolic blood pressure on type-2 diabetes and the effect of waist circumference on systolic blood pressure. Our analytical and simulation results show that MVMR provides unbiased effect estimates for the exposure when either the exposure or outcome of interest has been adjusted for a covariate. Our results also highlight the parameters that determine when MR will be biased by GWAS covariate adjustment. The results from the applied analysis mirror these results, with equivalent results seen in the MVMR with and without adjusted GWAS. When GWAS results have been adjusted for a covariate, biasing MR effect estimates, direct effect estimates of an exposure on an outcome can be obtained by including that covariate as an additional exposure in an MVMR estimation. However, the estimated effect of the covariate obtained from the MVMR estimation is biased., (© 2025 The Author(s). Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Introduction: Knowledge of the impact of smoking on health care costs is important for establishing the external effects of smoking and for evaluating policies intended to modify this behavior. Conventional analysis of this association is difficult because of omitted variable bias, reverse causality, and measurement error., Aims and Methods: We approached these challenges using a Mendelian Randomization study design; genetic variants associated with smoking behaviors were used in instrumental variables models with inpatient hospital costs (calculated from electronic health records) as the outcome. We undertook genome-wide association studies to identify genetic variants associated with smoking initiation and a composite smoking index (reflecting cumulative health impacts of smoking) on up to 300 045 individuals (mean age: 57 years at baseline, range 39-72 years) in the UK Biobank. We followed individuals up for a mean of 6 years., Results: Genetic liability to initiate smoking (ever vs. never smoking) was estimated to increase mean per-patient annual inpatient hospital costs by £477 (95% confidence interval (CI): £187 to £766). A one-unit change in genetic liability to the composite smoking index (range: 0-4.0) increased inpatient hospital costs by £204 (95% CI: £105 to £303) per unit increase in this index. There was some evidence that the composite smoking index causal models violated the instrumental variable assumptions, and all Mendelian Randomization models were estimated with considerable uncertainty. Models conditioning on risk tolerance were not robust to weak instrument bias., Conclusions: Our findings have implications for the potential cost-effectiveness of smoking interventions., Implications: We report the first Mendelian Randomization analysis of the causal effect of smoking on health care costs. Using two smoking phenotypes, we identified substantial impacts of smoking on inpatient hospital costs, although the causal models were associated with considerable uncertainty. These results could be used alongside other evidence on the impact of smoking to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of antismoking interventions and to understand the scale of externalities associated with this behavior., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.)

Background: Individuals who have experienced a stroke, or transient ischemic attack, face a heightened risk of future cardiovascular events. Identification of genetic and molecular risk factors for subsequent cardiovascular outcomes may identify effective therapeutic targets to improve prognosis after an incident stroke., Methods: We performed genome-wide association studies for subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; n cases =51 929; n controls =39 980) and subsequent arterial ischemic stroke (AIS; n cases =45 120; n controls =46 789) after the first incident stroke within the Million Veteran Program and UK Biobank. We then used genetic variants associated with proteins (protein quantitative trait loci) to determine the effect of 1463 plasma protein abundances on subsequent MACE using Mendelian randomization., Results: Two variants were significantly associated with subsequent cardiovascular events: rs76472767 near gene RNF220 (odds ratio, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.64-0.85]; P =3.69×10 -8 ) with subsequent AIS and rs13294166 near gene LINC01492 (odds ratio, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.37-1.67]; P =3.77×10 -8 ) with subsequent MACE. Using Mendelian randomization, we identified 2 proteins with an effect on subsequent MACE after a stroke: CCL27 ([C-C motif chemokine 27], effect odds ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.66-0.88]; adjusted P =0.05) and TNFRSF14 ([tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 14], effect odds ratio, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.24-1.60]; adjusted P =0.006). These proteins are not associated with incident AIS and are implicated to have a role in inflammation., Conclusions: We found evidence that 2 proteins with little effect on incident stroke appear to influence subsequent MACE after incident AIS. These associations suggest that inflammation is a contributing factor to subsequent MACE outcomes after incident AIS and highlights potential novel targets., Competing Interests: Dr Tilling reports grants from the National Institute for Health and Care Research; grants from Wellcome Trust; and grants from Medical Research Council. Dr Gaunt reports grants from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK); grants from Biogen; grants from UK Medical Research Council; and grants from GlaxoSmithKline. Dr Gaziano reports grants from the US Department of Veterans Affairs. Dr Davey Smith reports grants from the Medical Research Council. Dr Peloso reports support from Veterans Health Administration; employment by Boston University; compensation from the American Heart Association for consultant services; and grants from the National Institutes of Health. Dr Hartley started working for Novo Nordisk after contributing to this article. The other authors report no conflicts.

Introduction: Although observational data suggest a relationship between headache and smoking, there remain questions about causality. Smoking may increase headache risk, individuals may smoke to alleviate headaches, or smoking and headache may share common risk factors. Mendelian randomization (MR) is a method that uses genetic variants as instruments for making causal inferences about an exposure and an outcome., Aims and Methods: First, we conducted logistic regression of observational data in UK Biobank assessing the association between smoking behaviors (smoking status, cigarettes per day amongst daily smokers, and lifetime smoking score) on the risk of self-reported headache (in the last month and for more than 3 months). Second, we used genetic instruments for smoking behaviors and headache (identified in independent genome-wide association studies [GWAS]) to perform bidirectional MR analysis., Results: Observationally, there is a weak association between smoking behavior and experiencing headache, with increased cigarettes per day associated with increased headache risk. In the MR analysis, genetic liability to smoking initiation and lifetime smoking increased odds of headache in the last month but not odds of headaches lasting more than 3 months. In the opposite direction, there was weak evidence for higher genetic liability to headaches decreasing the chance of quitting., Conclusions: There was weak evidence for a partially bidirectional causal relationship between smoking behaviors and headache in the last month. Given this relationship is distinct from smoking heaviness, it suggests headache and smoking may share common risk factors such as personality traits., Implications: Using MR, this study addresses the uncertainty regarding the observed relationship between headache and smoking. There was evidence for weak causal effects of smoking initiation and lifetime smoking (but not smoking heaviness) on likelihood of experiencing headache in the last month, but not over a prolonged period of more than 3 months. Those with higher genetic liability to headaches were also less likely to successfully stop smoking. This partially bidirectional causal relationship distinct from smoking heaviness suggests that observed associations are unlikely due to biological effects of tobacco smoke exposure and may be explained by shared personality traits., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.)

Mendelian Randomisation (MR) estimates causal effects between risk factors and complex outcomes using genetic instruments. Pleiotropy, heritable confounders, and heterogeneous causal effects violate MR assumptions and can lead to biases. To alleviate these, we propose an approach employing a Phenome-Wide association Clustering of the MR instruments (PWC-MR) and apply this method to revisit the surprisingly large apparent causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on educational attainment (EDU): [Formula: see text] = -0.19 [-0.22, -0.16]. First, we cluster 324 BMI-associated genetic instruments based on their association with 407 traits in the UK Biobank, which yields six distinct groups. Subsequent cluster-specific MR reveals heterogeneous causal effect estimates on EDU. A cluster enriched for socio-economic indicators yields the largest BMI-on-EDU causal effect estimate ([Formula: see text] = -0.49 [-0.56, -0.42]) whereas a cluster enriched for body-mass specific traits provides a more likely estimate ([Formula: see text] = -0.09 [-0.13, -0.05]). Follow-up analyses confirms these findings: within-sibling MR ([Formula: see text] = -0.05 [-0.09, -0.01]); MR for childhood BMI on EDU ([Formula: see text] = -0.03 [-0.06, -0.002]); step-wise multivariable MR ([Formula: see text] = -0.05 [-0.07, -0.02]) where socio-economic indicators are jointly modelled. Here we show how the in-depth examination of the BMI-EDU causal relationship demonstrates the utility of our PWC-MR approach in revealing distinct pleiotropic pathways and confounder mechanisms., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear., Methods: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10 -8 ) cis-acting SNPs (i.e., in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r 2  < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") <0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH 4 ) >70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis., Findings: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH 4  = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20-1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH 4  = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH 4  = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH 4  = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48-4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH 4  = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk., Interpretation: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated., Funding: Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG&#95;FULL&#95;2020&#95;022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC&#95;UU&#95;00011/1, MC&#95;UU&#95;00011/3, MC&#95;UU&#95;00011/6, and MC&#95;UU&#95;00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654)., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests GDS reports Scientific Advisory Board Membership for Relation Therapeutics and Insitro. Where authors are identified as personnel of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization, the authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy or views of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a widely used method that exploits the unique properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference in relationships between exposures and outcomes. Nonlinear MR allows estimation of the shape of these relationships. In a previous paper, the authors applied linear and nonlinear MR to estimate the effect of BMI on mortality in UK Biobank, providing evidence for a J-shaped association. However, it is now clear that there are problems with widely used nonlinear MR methods, which draws attention to the likely erroneous nature of the conclusions regarding the shapes of several explored relationships. Here, the authors explore the utility and likely biases of these nonlinear MR methods with the use of a negative control design. Although there remains good evidence for a causal effect of higher BMI increasing the risk of mortality, the pattern of this association across different levels of BMI requires further characterization., (© 2023 The Authors. Obesity published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Obesity Society.)

The concept of aging is complex, including many related phenotypes such as healthspan, lifespan, extreme longevity, frailty and epigenetic aging, suggesting shared biological underpinnings; however, aging-related endpoints have been primarily assessed individually. Using data from these traits and multivariate genome-wide association study methods, we modeled their underlying genetic factor ('mvAge'). mvAge (effective n = ~1.9 million participants of European ancestry) identified 52 independent variants in 38 genomic loci. Twenty variants were novel (not reported in input genome-wide association studies). Transcriptomic imputation identified age-relevant genes, including VEGFA and PHB1. Drug-target Mendelian randomization with metformin target genes showed a beneficial impact on mvAge (P value = 8.41 × 10 -5 ). Similarly, genetically proxied thiazolidinediones (P value = 3.50 × 10 -10 ), proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin 9 inhibition (P value = 1.62 × 10 -6 ), angiopoietin-like protein 4, beta blockers and calcium channel blockers also had beneficial Mendelian randomization estimates. Extending the drug-target Mendelian randomization framework to 3,947 protein-coding genes prioritized 122 targets. Together, these findings will inform future studies aimed at improving healthy aging., (© 2023. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

Background: Inflammation is associated with cognitive functioning and dementia in older adults, but whether inflammation is related to cognitive functioning in youth and whether these associations are causal remains unclear., Methods: In a population-based cohort (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children; ALSPAC), we investigated cross-sectional associations of inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], Interleukin-6 [IL-6] and Glycoprotein acetyls [GlycA]) with measures of cold (working memory, response inhibition) and hot (emotion recognition) cognition at age 24 (N = 3,305 in multiple imputation models). Furthermore, we conducted one-sample and two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to examine potential causal effects of genetically-proxied inflammatory markers (CRP, GlycA, IL-6, IL-6 receptor, soluble IL-6 receptor) on cognitive measures (above) and on general cognitive ability., Results: In the ALSPAC cohort, there was limited evidence of an association between standardised inflammatory markers and standardised cognitive measures at age 24 after adjusting for potential confounders (N = 3,305; beta range, -0.02 [95 % confidence interval (CI) -0.06 to 0.02, p = 0.27] to 0.02 [95 % CI -0.02 to 0.05, p = 0.33]). Similarly, we found limited evidence of potential effects of 1-unit increase in genetically-proxied inflammatory markers on standardised working memory, emotion recognition or response inhibition in one-sample MR using ALSPAC data (beta range, -0.73 [95 % CI -2.47 to 1.01, p = 0.41] to 0.21 [95 % CI -1.42 to 1.84, p = 0.80]; or on standardised general cognitive ability in two-sample MR using the latest Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) datasets (inverse-variance weighted beta range, -0.02 [95 % CI -0.05 to 0.01, p = 0.12] to 0.03 [95 % CI -0.01 to 0.07, p = 0.19])., Conclusions: Our MR findings do not provide strong evidence of a potential causal effect of inflammatory markers (CRP, IL-6, IL-6 receptor, GlycA) on the cognitive functions examined here. Given the large confidence intervals in the one-sample MR, larger GWAS of specific cognitive measures are needed to enable well-powered MR analyses to investigate whether inflammation causally influences specific cognitive domains., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: The CHARGE Inflammation Working Group conducted GWAS of inflammation (CRP and IL-6) used in this study. MMis co-director ofJericoeLtd, which produces software for the assessment and modification of emotion perception. The authors report no other biomedical financial interests or potential conflicts of interest. GDS reports Scientific Advisory Board Membership for Relation Therapeutics and Insitro., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Mendelian randomization (MR) studies are susceptible to metadata errors (e.g. incorrect specification of the effect allele column) and other analytical issues that can introduce substantial bias into analyses. We developed a quality control (QC) pipeline for the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration (FAMRC) that can be used to identify and correct for such errors., Methods: We collated summary association statistics from fatty acid and cancer genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and subjected the collated data to a comprehensive QC pipeline. We identified metadata errors through comparison of study-specific statistics to external reference data sets (the National Human Genome Research Institute-European Bioinformatics Institute GWAS catalogue and 1000 genome super populations) and other analytical issues through comparison of reported to expected genetic effect sizes. Comparisons were based on three sets of genetic variants: (i) GWAS hits for fatty acids, (ii) GWAS hits for cancer and (iii) a 1000 genomes reference set., Results: We collated summary data from 6 fatty acid and 54 cancer GWAS. Metadata errors and analytical issues with the potential to introduce substantial bias were identified in seven studies (11.6%). After resolving metadata errors and analytical issues, we created a data set of 219 842 genetic associations with 90 cancer types, generated in analyses of 566 665 cancer cases and 1 622 374 controls., Conclusions: In this large MR collaboration, 11.6% of included studies were affected by a substantial metadata error or analytical issue. By increasing the integrity of collated summary data prior to their analysis, our protocol can be used to increase the reliability of downstream MR analyses. Our pipeline is available to other researchers via the CheckSumStats package (https://github.com/MRCIEU/CheckSumStats)., Competing Interests: None declared., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Participant overlap can induce overfitting bias into Mendelian randomization (MR) and polygenic risk score (PRS) studies. Here, we evaluated a block jackknife resampling framework for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and PRS construction to mitigate overfitting bias in MR analyses and implemented this study design in a causal inference setting using data from the UK Biobank. We simulated PRS and MR under three scenarios: (1) using weighted SNP estimates from an external GWAS, (2) using weighted SNP estimates from an overlapping GWAS sample and (3) using a block jackknife resampling framework. Based on a P-value threshold to derive genetic instruments for MR studies (P < 5 × 10-8) and a 10% variance in the exposure explained by all SNPs, block-jackknifing PRS did not suffer from overfitting bias (mean R2 = 0.034) compared with the externally weighted PRS (mean R2 = 0.040). In contrast, genetic instruments derived from overlapping samples explained a higher variance (mean R2 = 0.048) compared with the externally derived score. Overfitting became considerably more severe when using a more liberal P-value threshold to construct PRS (e.g. P < 0.05, overlapping sample PRS mean R2 = 0.103, externally weighted PRS mean R2 = 0.086), whereas estimates using jackknife score remained robust to overfitting (mean R2 = 0.084). Using block jackknife resampling MR in an applied analysis, we examined the effects of body mass index on circulating biomarkers which provided comparable estimates to an externally weighted instrument, whereas the overfitted scores typically provided narrower confidence intervals. Furthermore, we extended this framework into sex-stratified, multivariate and bidirectional settings to investigate the effect of childhood body size on adult testosterone levels., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: Polygenic scores (PGS) are becoming an increasingly popular approach to predict complex disease risk, although they also hold the potential to develop insight into the molecular profiles of patients with an elevated genetic predisposition to disease., Methods: We sought to construct an atlas of associations between 125 different PGS derived using results from genome-wide association studies and 249 circulating metabolites in up to 83,004 participants from the UK Biobank., Results: As an exemplar to demonstrate the value of this atlas, we conducted a hypothesis-free evaluation of all associations with glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA), an inflammatory biomarker. Using bidirectional Mendelian randomization, we find that the associations highlighted likely reflect the effect of risk factors, such as adiposity or liability towards smoking, on systemic inflammation as opposed to the converse direction. Moreover, we repeated all analyses in our atlas within age strata to investigate potential sources of collider bias, such as medication usage. This was exemplified by comparing associations between lipoprotein lipid profiles and the coronary artery disease PGS in the youngest and oldest age strata, which had differing proportions of individuals undergoing statin therapy. Lastly, we generated all PGS-metabolite associations stratified by sex and separately after excluding 13 established lipid-associated loci to further evaluate the robustness of findings., Conclusions: We envisage that the atlas of results constructed in our study will motivate future hypothesis generation and help prioritize and deprioritize circulating metabolic traits for in-depth investigations. All results can be visualized and downloaded at http://mrcieu.mrsoftware.org/metabolites&#95;PRS&#95;atlas., Funding: This work is supported by funding from the Wellcome Trust, the British Heart Foundation, and the Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit., Competing Interests: SF, GD No competing interests declared, MH MVH has consulted for Boehringer Ingelheim, and in adherence to the University of Oxford's Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CSTU) staff policy, did not accept personal honoraria or other payments from pharmaceutical companies, TG TRG receives funding from Biogen for unrelated research, TR TGR is employed part-time by Novo Nordisk outside of this work, (© 2022, Fang et al.)

Studies leveraging gene-environment (GxE) interactions within Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses have prompted the emergence of two similar methodologies: MR-GxE and MR-GENIUS. Such methods are attractive in allowing for pleiotropic bias to be corrected when using individual instruments. Specifically, MR-GxE requires an interaction to be explicitly identified, while MR-GENIUS does not. We critically examine the assumptions of MR-GxE and MR-GENIUS in the absence of a pre-defined covariate, and propose sensitivity analyses to evaluate their performance. Finally, we explore the effect of body mass index (BMI) upon systolic blood pressure (SBP) using data from the UK Biobank, finding evidence of a positive effect of BMI on SBP. We find both approaches share similar assumptions, though differences between the approaches lend themselves to differing research settings. Where a suitable gene-by-covariate interaction is observed MR-GxE can produce unbiased causal effect estimates. MR-GENIUS can circumvent the need to identify interactions, but as a consequence relies on either the MR-GxE assumptions holding globally, or additional information with respect to the distribution of pleiotropic effects in the absence of an explicitly defined interaction covariate., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Estimates from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of unrelated individuals capture effects of inherited variation (direct effects), demography (population stratification, assortative mating) and relatives (indirect genetic effects). Family-based GWAS designs can control for demographic and indirect genetic effects, but large-scale family datasets have been lacking. We combined data from 178,086 siblings from 19 cohorts to generate population (between-family) and within-sibship (within-family) GWAS estimates for 25 phenotypes. Within-sibship GWAS estimates were smaller than population estimates for height, educational attainment, age at first birth, number of children, cognitive ability, depressive symptoms and smoking. Some differences were observed in downstream SNP heritability, genetic correlations and Mendelian randomization analyses. For example, the within-sibship genetic correlation between educational attainment and body mass index attenuated towards zero. In contrast, analyses of most molecular phenotypes (for example, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol) were generally consistent. We also found within-sibship evidence of polygenic adaptation on taller height. Here, we illustrate the importance of family-based GWAS data for phenotypes influenced by demographic and indirect genetic effects., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The protein α-Klotho acts as transmembrane co-receptor for fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) and is a key regulator of phosphate homeostasis. However, α-Klotho also exists in a circulating form, with pleiotropic, but incompletely understood functions and regulation. Therefore, we undertook a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis followed by Mendelian randomization (MR) of circulating α-Klotho levels. Plasma α-Klotho levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health and Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (mothers) cohorts, followed by a GWAS meta-analysis in 4376 individuals across the two cohorts. Six signals at five loci were associated with circulating α-Klotho levels at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8), namely ABO, KL, FGFR1, and two post-translational modification genes, B4GALNT3 and CHST9. Together, these loci explained >9% of the variation in circulating α-Klotho levels. MR analyses revealed no causal relationships between α-Klotho and renal function, FGF23-dependent factors such as vitamin D and phosphate levels, or bone mineral density. The screening for genetic correlations with other phenotypes followed by targeted MR suggested causal effects of liability of Crohn's disease risk [Inverse variance weighted (IVW) beta = 0.059 (95% confidence interval 0.026, 0.093)] and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels [-0.198 (-0.332, -0.063)] on α-Klotho. Our GWAS findings suggest that two enzymes involved in post-translational modification, B4GALNT3 and CHST9, contribute to genetic influences on α-Klotho levels, presumably by affecting protein turnover and stability. Subsequent evidence from MR analyses on α-Klotho levels suggest regulation by mechanisms besides phosphate-homeostasis and raise the possibility of cross-talk with FGF19- and FGF21-dependent pathways, respectively. Significance statement: α-Klotho as a transmembrane protein is well investigated along the endocrine FGF23-α-Klotho pathway. However, the role of the circulating form of α-Klotho, which is generated by cleavage of transmembrane α-Klotho, remains incompletely understood. Genetic analyses might help to elucidate novel regulatory and functional mechanisms. The identification of genetic factors related to circulating α-Klotho further enables MR to examine causal relationships with other factors. The findings from the first GWAS meta-analysis of circulating α-Klotho levels identified six genome-wide significant signals across five genes. Given the function of two of the genes identified, B4GALNT3 and CHST9, it is tempting to speculate that post-translational modification significantly contributes to genetic influences on α-Klotho levels, presumably by affecting protein turnover and stability., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Estimated genetic associations with prognosis, or conditional on a phenotype (e.g. disease incidence), may be affected by collider bias, whereby conditioning on the phenotype induces associations between causes of the phenotype and prognosis. We propose a method, 'Slope-Hunter', that uses model-based clustering to identify and utilise the class of variants only affecting the phenotype to estimate the adjustment factor, assuming this class explains more variation in the phenotype than any other variant classes. Simulation studies show that our approach eliminates the bias and outperforms alternatives even in the presence of genetic correlation. In a study of fasting blood insulin levels (FI) conditional on body mass index, we eliminate paradoxical associations of the underweight loci: COBLLI; PPARG with increased FI, and reveal an association for the locus rs1421085 (FTO). In an analysis of a case-only study for breast cancer mortality, a single region remains associated with more pronounced results., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease with a lifetime risk of one in 350 people and an unmet need for disease-modifying therapies. We conducted a cross-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) including 29,612 patients with ALS and 122,656 controls, which identified 15 risk loci. When combined with 8,953 individuals with whole-genome sequencing (6,538 patients, 2,415 controls) and a large cortex-derived expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) dataset (MetaBrain), analyses revealed locus-specific genetic architectures in which we prioritized genes either through rare variants, short tandem repeats or regulatory effects. ALS-associated risk loci were shared with multiple traits within the neurodegenerative spectrum but with distinct enrichment patterns across brain regions and cell types. Of the environmental and lifestyle risk factors obtained from the literature, Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal role for high cholesterol levels. The combination of all ALS-associated signals reveals a role for perturbations in vesicle-mediated transport and autophagy and provides evidence for cell-autonomous disease initiation in glutamatergic neurons., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) allows the use of freely accessible summary association results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to estimate causal effects of modifiable exposures on outcomes. Some GWAS adjust for heritable covariables in an attempt to estimate direct effects of genetic variants on the trait of interest. One, both or neither of the exposure GWAS and outcome GWAS may have been adjusted for covariables., Methods: We performed a simulation study comprising different scenarios that could motivate covariable adjustment in a GWAS and analysed real data to assess the influence of using covariable-adjusted summary association results in two-sample MR., Results: In the absence of residual confounding between exposure and covariable, between exposure and outcome, and between covariable and outcome, using covariable-adjusted summary associations for two-sample MR eliminated bias due to horizontal pleiotropy. However, covariable adjustment led to bias in the presence of residual confounding (especially between the covariable and the outcome), even in the absence of horizontal pleiotropy (when the genetic variants would be valid instruments without covariable adjustment). In an analysis using real data from the Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium and UK Biobank, the causal effect estimate of waist circumference on blood pressure changed direction upon adjustment of waist circumference for body mass index., Conclusions: Our findings indicate that using covariable-adjusted summary associations in MR should generally be avoided. When that is not possible, careful consideration of the causal relationships underlying the data (including potentially unmeasured confounders) is required to direct sensitivity analyses and interpret results with appropriate caution., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Background: The causal nature of the observed associations between serum lipids and apolipoproteins and kidney function are unclear., Methods: Using two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR), we examined the causal effects of serum lipids and apolipoproteins on kidney function, indicated by the glomerular-filtration rate estimated using creatinine (eGFRcrea) or cystatin C (eGFRcys) and the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR). We obtained lipid- and apolipoprotein-associated genetic variants from the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium (n = 331 368) and UK Biobank (n = 441 016), respectively, and kidney-function markers from the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT; n = 69 736) and UK Biobank (n = 464 207). The reverse causal direction was examined using variants associated with kidney-function markers selected from recent genome-wide association studies., Results: There were no strong associations between genetically predicted lipid and apolipoprotein levels with kidney-function markers. Some, but inconsistent, evidence suggested a weak association of higher genetically predicted atherogenic lipid levels [indicated by low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides and apolipoprotein B] with increased eGFR and UACR. For high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), results differed between eGFRcrea and eGFRcys, but neither analysis suggested substantial effects. We found no clear evidence of a reverse causal effect of eGFR on lipid or apolipoprotein traits, but higher UACR was associated with higher LDL-C, triglyceride and apolipoprotein B levels., Conclusion: Our MR estimates suggest that serum lipid and apolipoprotein levels do not cause substantial changes in kidney function. A possible weak effect of higher atherogenic lipids on increased eGFR and UACR warrants further investigation. Processes leading to higher UACR may lead to more atherogenic lipid levels., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

A key assumption of Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis is that there is no association between the genetic variants used as instruments and the outcome other than through the exposure of interest. One way in which this assumption can be violated is through population stratification, which can introduce confounding of the relationship between the genetic variants and the outcome and so induce an association between them. Negative control outcomes are increasingly used to detect unobserved confounding in observational epidemiological studies. Here we consider the use of negative control outcomes in MR studies to detect confounding of the genetic variants and the exposure or outcome. As a negative control outcome in an MR study, we propose the use of phenotypes which are determined before the exposure and outcome but which are likely to be subject to the same confounding as the exposure or outcome of interest. We illustrate our method with a two-sample MR analysis of a preselected set of exposures on self-reported tanning ability and hair colour. Our results show that, of the 33 exposures considered, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of adiposity and education-related traits are likely to be subject to population stratification that is not controlled for through adjustment, and so any MR study including these traits may be subject to bias that cannot be identified through standard pleiotropy robust methods. Negative control outcomes should therefore be used regularly in MR studies to detect potential population stratification in the data used., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Observational studies suggest that lower educational attainment (EA) may be associated with risky alcohol use behaviors; however, these findings may be biased by confounding and reverse causality. We performed two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) using summary statistics from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with >780,000 participants to assess the causal effects of EA on alcohol use behaviors and alcohol dependence (AD). Fifty-three independent genome-wide significant SNPs previously associated with EA were tested for association with alcohol use behaviors. We show that while genetic instruments associated with increased EA are not associated with total amount of weekly drinks, they are associated with reduced frequency of binge drinking ≥6 drinks (ß IVW  = -0.198, 95% CI, -0.297 to -0.099, P IVW  = 9.14 × 10 -5 ), reduced total drinks consumed per drinking day (ß IVW  = -0.207, 95% CI, -0.293 to -0.120, P IVW  = 2.87 × 10 -6 ), as well as lower weekly distilled spirits intake (ß IVW  = -0.148, 95% CI, -0.188 to -0.107, P IVW  = 6.24 × 10 -13 ). Conversely, genetic instruments for increased EA were associated with increased alcohol intake frequency (ß IVW  = 0.331, 95% CI, 0.267-0.396, P IVW  = 4.62 × 10 -24 ), and increased weekly white wine (ß IVW  = 0.199, 95% CI, 0.159-0.238, P IVW  = 7.96 × 10 -23 ) and red wine intake (ß IVW  = 0.204, 95% CI, 0.161-0.248, P IVW  = 6.67 × 10 -20 ). Genetic instruments associated with increased EA reduced AD risk: an additional 3.61 years schooling reduced the risk by ~50% (OR IVW  = 0.508, 95% CI, 0.315-0.819, P IVW  = 5.52 × 10 -3 ). Consistency of results across complementary MR methods accommodating different assumptions about genetic pleiotropy strengthened causal inference. Our findings suggest EA may have important effects on alcohol consumption patterns and may provide potential mechanisms explaining reported associations between EA and adverse health outcomes.

Background: Past history of gallstones is associated with increased risk of gallbladder cancer in observational studies. We conducted complementary observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to determine whether history of gallstones is causally related to development of gallbladder cancer in an Indian population., Methods: To investigate associations between history of gallstones and gallbladder cancer, we used questionnaire and imaging data from a gallbladder cancer case-control study conducted at Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India (cases = 1,170; controls = 2,525). We then used 26 genetic variants identified in a genome-wide association study of 27,174 gallstone cases and 736,838 controls of European ancestry in an MR approach to assess causality. The association of these genetic variants with both gallstones and gallbladder cancer was examined in the gallbladder cancer case-control study. Various complementary MR approaches were used to evaluate the robustness of our results in the presence of pleiotropy and heterogeneity, and to consider the suitability of the selected SNPs as genetic instruments for gallstones in an Indian population., Results: We found a strong observational association between gallstones and gallbladder cancer using self-reported history of gallstones [OR = 4.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.5-5.8] and with objective measures of gallstone presence using imaging techniques (OR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.5-2.7). We found consistent causal estimates across all MR techniques, with ORs for gallbladder cancer in the range of 1.3-1.6., Conclusions: Our findings indicate a causal relationship between history of gallstones and increased risk of gallbladder cancer, albeit of a smaller magnitude than those found in observational analysis., Impact: Our findings emphasize the importance of gallstone treatment for preventing gallbladder cancer in high-risk individuals., (©2020 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) is critical for normal development and metabolism. To better understand the genetic contribution to TSH levels, we conduct a GWAS meta-analysis at 22.4 million genetic markers in up to 119,715 individuals and identify 74 genome-wide significant loci for TSH, of which 28 are previously unreported. Functional experiments show that the thyroglobulin protein-altering variants P118L and G67S impact thyroglobulin secretion. Phenome-wide association analysis in the UK Biobank demonstrates the pleiotropic effects of TSH-associated variants and a polygenic score for higher TSH levels is associated with a reduced risk of thyroid cancer in the UK Biobank and three other independent studies. Two-sample Mendelian randomization using TSH index variants as instrumental variables suggests a protective effect of higher TSH levels (indicating lower thyroid function) on risk of thyroid cancer and goiter. Our findings highlight the pleiotropic effects of TSH-associated variants on thyroid function and growth of malignant and benign thyroid tumors.

Psychiatric disorders are highly heritable and associated with a wide variety of social adversity and physical health problems. Using genetic liability (rather than phenotypic measures of disease) as a proxy for psychiatric disease risk can be a useful alternative for research questions that would traditionally require large cohort studies with long-term follow up. Here we conducted a hypothesis-free phenome-wide association study in about 330,000 participants from the UK Biobank to examine associations of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for five psychiatric disorders (major depression (MDD), bipolar disorder (BP), schizophrenia (SCZ), attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD)) with 23,004 outcomes in UK Biobank, using the open-source PHESANT software package. There was evidence after multiple testing (p<2.55x10-06) for associations of PRSs with 294 outcomes, most of them attributed to associations of PRSMDD (n = 167) and PRSSCZ (n = 157) with mental health factors. Among others, we found strong evidence of association of higher PRSADHD with 1.1 months younger age at first sexual intercourse [95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.25,-0.92] and a history of physical maltreatment; PRSASD with 0.01% lower erythrocyte distribution width [95%CI: -0.013,-0.007]; PRSSCZ with 0.95 lower odds of playing computer games [95%CI:0.95,0.96]; PRSMDD with a 0.12 points higher neuroticism score [95%CI:0.111,0.135] and PRSBP with 1.03 higher odds of having a university degree [95%CI:1.02,1.03]. We were able to show that genetic liabilities for five major psychiatric disorders associate with long-term aspects of adult life, including socio-demographic factors, mental and physical health. This is evident even in individuals from the general population who do not necessarily present with a psychiatric disorder diagnosis., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Replicable genetic association signals have consistently been found through genome-wide association studies in recent years. The recent dramatic expansion of study sizes improves power of estimation of effect sizes, genomic prediction, causal inference, and polygenic selection, but it simultaneously increases susceptibility of these methods to bias due to subtle population structure. Standard methods using genetic principal components to correct for structure might not always be appropriate and we use a simulation study to illustrate when correction might be ineffective for avoiding biases. New methods such as trans-ethnic modeling and chromosome painting allow for a richer understanding of the relationship between traits and population structure. We illustrate the arguments using real examples (stroke and educational attainment) and provide a more nuanced understanding of population structure, which is set to be revisited as a critical aspect of future analyses in genetic epidemiology. We also make simple recommendations for how problems can be avoided in the future. Our results have particular importance for the implementation of GWAS meta-analysis, for prediction of traits, and for causal inference.

Subcortical brain structures are integral to motion, consciousness, emotions and learning. We identified common genetic variation related to the volumes of the nucleus accumbens, amygdala, brainstem, caudate nucleus, globus pallidus, putamen and thalamus, using genome-wide association analyses in almost 40,000 individuals from CHARGE, ENIGMA and UK Biobank. We show that variability in subcortical volumes is heritable, and identify 48 significantly associated loci (40 novel at the time of analysis). Annotation of these loci by utilizing gene expression, methylation and neuropathological data identified 199 genes putatively implicated in neurodevelopment, synaptic signaling, axonal transport, apoptosis, inflammation/infection and susceptibility to neurological disorders. This set of genes is significantly enriched for Drosophila orthologs associated with neurodevelopmental phenotypes, suggesting evolutionarily conserved mechanisms. Our findings uncover novel biology and potential drug targets underlying brain development and disease.

The age of large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has provided us with an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the genetic liability of complex disease using polygenic risk scores (PRS). In this study, we have analysed 162 PRS (p<5×10 -05 ) derived from GWAS and 551 heritable traits from the UK Biobank study (N = 334,398). Findings can be investigated using a web application (http:‌//‌mrcieu.‌mrsoftware.org/‌PRS‌&#95;atlas/), which we envisage will help uncover both known and novel mechanisms which contribute towards disease susceptibility. To demonstrate this, we have investigated the results from a phenome-wide evaluation of schizophrenia genetic liability. Amongst findings were inverse associations with measures of cognitive function which extensive follow-up analyses using Mendelian randomization (MR) provided evidence of a causal relationship. We have also investigated the effect of multiple risk factors on disease using mediation and multivariable MR frameworks. Our atlas provides a resource for future endeavours seeking to unravel the causal determinants of complex disease., Competing Interests: TR, SH, GH, GD No competing interests declared, (© 2019, Richardson et al.)

Background: Generalised high bone mass (HBM), associated with features of a mild skeletal dysplasia, has a prevalence of 0.18% in a UK DXA-scanned adult population. We hypothesized that the genetic component of extreme HBM includes contributions from common variants of small effect and rarer variants of large effect, both enriched in an extreme phenotype cohort., Methods: We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of adults with either extreme high or low BMD. Adults included individuals with unexplained extreme HBM (n = 240) from the UK with BMD Z-scores ≥+3.2, high BMD females from the Anglo-Australasian Osteoporosis Genetics Consortium (AOGC) (n = 1055) with Z-scores +1.5 to +4.0 and low BMD females also part of AOGC (n = 900), with Z-scores -1.5 to -4.0. Following imputation, we tested association between 6,379,332 SNPs and total hip and lumbar spine BMD Z-scores. For potential target genes, we assessed expression in human osteoblasts and murine osteocytes., Results: We observed significant enrichment for associations with established BMD-associated loci, particularly those known to regulate endochondral ossification and Wnt signalling, suggesting that part of the genetic contribution to unexplained HBM is polygenic. Further, we identified associations exceeding genome-wide significance between BMD and four loci: two established BMD-associated loci (5q14.3 containing MEF2C and 1p36.12 containing WNT4) and two novel loci: 5p13.3 containing NPR3 (rs9292469; minor allele frequency [MAF] = 0.33%) associated with lumbar spine BMD and 11p15.2 containing SPON1 (rs2697825; MAF = 0.17%) associated with total hip BMD. Mouse models with mutations in either Npr3 or Spon1 have been reported, both have altered skeletal phenotypes, providing in vivo validation that these genes are physiologically important in bone. NRP3 regulates endochondral ossification and skeletal growth, whilst SPON1 modulates TGF-β regulated BMP-driven osteoblast differentiation. Rs9292469 (downstream of NPR3) also showed some evidence for association with forearm BMD in the independent GEFOS sample (n = 32,965). We found Spon1 was highly expressed in murine osteocytes from the tibiae, femora, humeri and calvaria, whereas Npr3 expression was more variable., Conclusion: We report the most extreme-truncate GWAS of BMD performed to date. Our findings, suggest potentially new anabolic bone regulatory pathways that warrant further study., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Competing Interests: Competing interests: We have read and understood BMJ policy on declaration of interests and declare that we have no competing interests.

The ratio of the length of the index finger to that of the ring finger (2D:4D) is sexually dimorphic and is commonly used as a non-invasive biomarker of prenatal androgen exposure. Most association studies of 2D:4D ratio with a diverse range of sex-specific traits have typically involved small sample sizes and have been difficult to replicate, raising questions around the utility and precise meaning of the measure. In the largest genome-wide association meta-analysis of 2D:4D ratio to date (N = 15 661, with replication N = 75 821), we identified 11 loci (9 novel) explaining 3.8% of the variance in mean 2D:4D ratio. We also found weak evidence for association (β = 0.06; P = 0.02) between 2D:4D ratio and sensitivity to testosterone [length of the CAG microsatellite repeat in the androgen receptor (AR) gene] in females only. Furthermore, genetic variants associated with (adult) testosterone levels and/or sex hormone-binding globulin were not associated with 2D:4D ratio in our sample. Although we were unable to find strong evidence from our genetic study to support the hypothesis that 2D:4D ratio is a direct biomarker of prenatal exposure to androgens in healthy individuals, our findings do not explicitly exclude this possibility, and pathways involving testosterone may become apparent as the size of the discovery sample increases further. Our findings provide new insight into the underlying biology shaping 2D:4D variation in the general population.

Background: Recent analyses of trait-disorder overlap suggest that psychiatric dimensions may relate to distinct sets of genes that exert maximum influence during different periods of development. This includes analyses of social communication difficulties that share, depending on their developmental stage, stronger genetic links with either autism spectrum disorder or schizophrenia. We developed a multivariate analysis framework in unrelated individuals to model directly the developmental profile of genetic influences contributing to complex traits, such as social communication difficulties, during an approximately 10-year period spanning childhood and adolescence., Methods: Longitudinally assessed quantitative social communication problems (N ≤ 5551) were studied in participants from a United Kingdom birth cohort (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children; age range, 8-17 years). Using standardized measures, genetic architectures were investigated with novel multivariate genetic-relationship-matrix structural equation models incorporating whole-genome genotyping information. Analogous to twin research, genetic-relationship-matrix structural equation models included Cholesky decomposition, common pathway, and independent pathway models., Results: A two-factor Cholesky decomposition model described the data best. One genetic factor was common to Social Communication Disorder Checklist measures across development; the other accounted for independent variation at 11 years and later, consistent with distinct developmental profiles in trait-disorder overlap. Importantly, genetic factors operating at 8 years explained only approximately 50% of genetic variation at 17 years., Conclusions: Using latent factor models, we identified developmental changes in the genetic architecture of social communication difficulties that enhance the understanding of autism spectrum disorder- and schizophrenia-related dimensions. More generally, genetic-relationship-matrix structural equation models present a framework for modeling shared genetic etiologies between phenotypes and can provide prior information with respect to patterns and continuity of trait-disorder overlap., (Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Inference about the causal structure that induces correlations between two traits can be achieved by combining genetic associations with a mediation-based approach, as is done in the causal inference test (CIT). However, we show that measurement error in the phenotypes can lead to the CIT inferring the wrong causal direction, and that increasing sample sizes has the adverse effect of increasing confidence in the wrong answer. This problem is likely to be general to other mediation-based approaches. Here we introduce an extension to Mendelian randomisation, a method that uses genetic associations in an instrumentation framework, that enables inference of the causal direction between traits, with some advantages. First, it can be performed using only summary level data from genome-wide association studies; second, it is less susceptible to bias in the presence of measurement error or unmeasured confounding. We apply the method to infer the causal direction between DNA methylation and gene expression levels. Our results demonstrate that, in general, DNA methylation is more likely to be the causal factor, but this result is highly susceptible to bias induced by systematic differences in measurement error between the platforms, and by horizontal pleiotropy. We emphasise that, where possible, implementing MR and appropriate sensitivity analyses alongside other approaches such as CIT is important to triangulate reliable conclusions about causality.

Detailed metabolic profiling in large-scale epidemiologic studies has uncovered novel biomarkers for cardiometabolic diseases and clarified the molecular associations of established risk factors. A quantitative metabolomics platform based on nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy has found widespread use, already profiling over 400,000 blood samples. Over 200 metabolic measures are quantified per sample; in addition to many biomarkers routinely used in epidemiology, the method simultaneously provides fine-grained lipoprotein subclass profiling and quantification of circulating fatty acids, amino acids, gluconeogenesis-related metabolites, and many other molecules from multiple metabolic pathways. Here we focus on applications of magnetic resonance metabolomics for quantifying circulating biomarkers in large-scale epidemiology. We highlight the molecular characterization of risk factors, use of Mendelian randomization, and the key issues of study design and analyses of metabolic profiling for epidemiology. We also detail how integration of metabolic profiling data with genetics can enhance drug development. We discuss why quantitative metabolic profiling is becoming widespread in epidemiology and biobanking. Although large-scale applications of metabolic profiling are still novel, it seems likely that comprehensive biomarker data will contribute to etiologic understanding of various diseases and abilities to predict disease risks, with the potential to translate into multiple clinical settings., (© The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.)

The past decade has been proclaimed as a hugely successful era of gene discovery through the high yields of many genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, much of the perceived benefit of such discoveries lies in the promise that the identification of genes that influence disease would directly translate into the identification of potential therapeutic targets, but this has yet to be realized at a level reflecting expectation. One reason for this, we suggest, is that GWAS, to date, have generally not focused on phenotypes that directly relate to the progression of disease and thus speak to disease treatment.

Background: Both positive and negative associations between higher body mass index (BMI) and Parkinson disease (PD) have been reported in observational studies, but it has been difficult to establish causality because of the possibility of residual confounding or reverse causation. To our knowledge, Mendelian randomisation (MR)-the use of genetic instrumental variables (IVs) to explore causal effects-has not previously been used to test the effect of BMI on PD., Methods and Findings: Two-sample MR was undertaken using genome-wide association (GWA) study data. The associations between the genetic instruments and BMI were obtained from the GIANT consortium and consisted of the per-allele difference in mean BMI for 77 independent variants that reached genome-wide significance. The per-allele difference in log-odds of PD for each of these variants was estimated from a recent meta-analysis, which included 13,708 cases of PD and 95,282 controls. The inverse-variance weighted method was used to estimate a pooled odds ratio (OR) for the effect of a 5-kg/m2 higher BMI on PD. Evidence of directional pleiotropy averaged across all variants was sought using MR-Egger regression. Frailty simulations were used to assess whether causal associations were affected by mortality selection. A combined genetic IV expected to confer a lifetime exposure of 5-kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with a lower risk of PD (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.98). MR-Egger regression gave similar results, suggesting that directional pleiotropy was unlikely to be biasing the result (intercept 0.002; p = 0.654). However, the apparent protective influence of higher BMI could be at least partially induced by survival bias in the PD GWA study, as demonstrated by frailty simulations. Other important limitations of this application of MR include the inability to analyse non-linear associations, to undertake subgroup analyses, and to gain mechanistic insights., Conclusions: In this large study using two-sample MR, we found that variants known to influence BMI had effects on PD in a manner consistent with higher BMI leading to lower risk of PD. The mechanism underlying this apparent protective effect warrants further study.

Background: Observational associations between cannabis and schizophrenia are well documented, but ascertaining causation is more challenging. We used Mendelian randomization (MR), utilizing publicly available data as a method for ascertaining causation from observational data., Method: We performed bi-directional two-sample MR using summary-level genome-wide data from the International Cannabis Consortium (ICC) and the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC2). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with cannabis initiation (p < 10-5) and schizophrenia (p < 5 × 10-8) were combined using an inverse-variance-weighted fixed-effects approach. We also used height and education genome-wide association study data, representing negative and positive control analyses., Results: There was some evidence consistent with a causal effect of cannabis initiation on risk of schizophrenia [odds ratio (OR) 1.04 per doubling odds of cannabis initiation, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.07, p = 0.019]. There was strong evidence consistent with a causal effect of schizophrenia risk on likelihood of cannabis initiation (OR 1.10 per doubling of the odds of schizophrenia, 95% CI 1.05-1.14, p = 2.64 × 10-5). Findings were as predicted for the negative control (height: OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.01, p = 0.90) but weaker than predicted for the positive control (years in education: OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.97-1.00, p = 0.066) analyses., Conclusions: Our results provide some that cannabis initiation increases the risk of schizophrenia, although the size of the causal estimate is small. We find stronger evidence that schizophrenia risk predicts cannabis initiation, possibly as genetic instruments for schizophrenia are stronger than for cannabis initiation.

The genetic architecture of human reproductive behavior-age at first birth (AFB) and number of children ever born (NEB)-has a strong relationship with fitness, human development, infertility and risk of neuropsychiatric disorders. However, very few genetic loci have been identified, and the underlying mechanisms of AFB and NEB are poorly understood. We report a large genome-wide association study of both sexes including 251,151 individuals for AFB and 343,072 individuals for NEB. We identified 12 independent loci that are significantly associated with AFB and/or NEB in a SNP-based genome-wide association study and 4 additional loci associated in a gene-based effort. These loci harbor genes that are likely to have a role, either directly or by affecting non-local gene expression, in human reproduction and infertility, thereby increasing understanding of these complex traits.

Birth weight (BW) has been shown to be influenced by both fetal and maternal factors and in observational studies is reproducibly associated with future risk of adult metabolic diseases including type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease. These life-course associations have often been attributed to the impact of an adverse early life environment. Here, we performed a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of BW in 153,781 individuals, identifying 60 loci where fetal genotype was associated with BW (P < 5 × 10 -8 ). Overall, approximately 15% of variance in BW was captured by assays of fetal genetic variation. Using genetic association alone, we found strong inverse genetic correlations between BW and systolic blood pressure (R g  = -0.22, P = 5.5 × 10 -13 ), T2D (R g  = -0.27, P = 1.1 × 10 -6 ) and coronary artery disease (R g  = -0.30, P = 6.5 × 10 -9 ). In addition, using large -cohort datasets, we demonstrated that genetic factors were the major contributor to the negative covariance between BW and future cardiometabolic risk. Pathway analyses indicated that the protein products of genes within BW-associated regions were enriched for diverse processes including insulin signalling, glucose homeostasis, glycogen biosynthesis and chromatin remodelling. There was also enrichment of associations with BW in known imprinted regions (P = 1.9 × 10 -4 ). We demonstrate that life-course associations between early growth phenotypes and adult cardiometabolic disease are in part the result of shared genetic effects and identify some of the pathways through which these causal genetic effects are mediated., Competing Interests: One of the authors discloses competing financial interests: Krina Zondervan has a scientific collaboration with Bayer HealthCare Ltd. and Population Diagnostics Inc.

More than a million childhood diarrhoeal episodes occur worldwide each year, and in developed countries a considerable part of them are caused by viral infections. In this study, we aimed to search for genetic variants associated with diarrhoeal disease in young children by meta-analyzing genome-wide association studies, and to elucidate plausible biological mechanisms. The study was conducted in the context of the Early Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortium. Data about diarrhoeal disease in two time windows (around 1 year of age and around 2 years of age) was obtained via parental questionnaires, doctor interviews or medical records. Standard quality control and statistical tests were applied to the 1000 Genomes imputed genotypic data. The meta-analysis (N = 5758) followed by replication (N = 3784) identified a genome-wide significant association between rs8111874 and diarrhoea at age 1 year. Conditional analysis suggested that the causal variant could be rs601338 (W154X) in the FUT2 gene. Children with the A allele, which results in a truncated FUT2 protein, had lower risk of diarrhoea. FUT2 participates in the production of histo-blood group antigens and has previously been implicated in the susceptibility to infections, including Rotavirus and Norovirus Gene-set enrichment analysis suggested pathways related to the histo-blood group antigen production, and the regulation of ion transport and blood pressure. Among others, the gastrointestinal tract, and the immune and neuro-secretory systems were detected as relevant organs. In summary, this genome-wide association meta-analysis suggests the implication of the FUT2 gene in diarrhoeal disease in young children from the general population., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Educational attainment is strongly influenced by social and other environmental factors, but genetic factors are estimated to account for at least 20% of the variation across individuals. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for educational attainment that extends our earlier discovery sample of 101,069 individuals to 293,723 individuals, and a replication study in an independent sample of 111,349 individuals from the UK Biobank. We identify 74 genome-wide significant loci associated with the number of years of schooling completed. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with educational attainment are disproportionately found in genomic regions regulating gene expression in the fetal brain. Candidate genes are preferentially expressed in neural tissue, especially during the prenatal period, and enriched for biological pathways involved in neural development. Our findings demonstrate that, even for a behavioural phenotype that is mostly environmentally determined, a well-powered GWAS identifies replicable associated genetic variants that suggest biologically relevant pathways. Because educational attainment is measured in large numbers of individuals, it will continue to be useful as a proxy phenotype in efforts to characterize the genetic influences of related phenotypes, including cognition and neuropsychiatric diseases.

Migraine is a common disabling neurovascular brain disorder typically characterised by attacks of severe headache and associated with autonomic and neurological symptoms. Migraine is caused by an interplay of genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over a dozen genetic loci associated with migraine. Here, we integrated migraine GWAS data with high-resolution spatial gene expression data of normal adult brains from the Allen Human Brain Atlas to identify specific brain regions and molecular pathways that are possibly involved in migraine pathophysiology. To this end, we used two complementary methods. In GWAS data from 23,285 migraine cases and 95,425 controls, we first studied modules of co-expressed genes that were calculated based on human brain expression data for enrichment of genes that showed association with migraine. Enrichment of a migraine GWAS signal was found for five modules that suggest involvement in migraine pathophysiology of: (i) neurotransmission, protein catabolism and mitochondria in the cortex; (ii) transcription regulation in the cortex and cerebellum; and (iii) oligodendrocytes and mitochondria in subcortical areas. Second, we used the high-confidence genes from the migraine GWAS as a basis to construct local migraine-related co-expression gene networks. Signatures of all brain regions and pathways that were prominent in the first method also surfaced in the second method, thus providing support that these brain regions and pathways are indeed involved in migraine pathophysiology.

As our understanding of genetics has improved, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous variants associated with lifestyle behaviours and health outcomes. However, what is sometimes overlooked is the possibility that genetic variants identified in GWAS of disease might reflect the effect of modifiable risk factors as well as direct genetic effects. We discuss this possibility with illustrative examples from tobacco and alcohol research, in which genetic variants that predict behavioural phenotypes have been seen in GWAS of diseases known to be causally related to these behaviours. This consideration has implications for the interpretation of GWAS findings.

Observational cohort studies can provide rich datasets with a diverse range of phenotypic variables. However, hypothesis-driven epidemiological analyses by definition only test particular hypotheses chosen by researchers. Furthermore, observational analyses may not provide robust evidence of causality, as they are susceptible to confounding, reverse causation and measurement error. Using body mass index (BMI) as an exemplar, we demonstrate a novel extension to the phenome-wide association study (pheWAS) approach, using automated screening with genotypic instruments to screen for causal associations amongst any number of phenotypic outcomes. We used a sample of 8,121 children from the ALSPAC dataset, and tested the linear association of a BMI-associated allele score with 172 phenotypic outcomes (with variable sample sizes). We also performed an instrumental variable analysis to estimate the causal effect of BMI on each phenotype. We found 21 of the 172 outcomes were associated with the allele score at an unadjusted p < 0.05 threshold, and use Bonferroni corrections, permutation testing and estimates of the false discovery rate to consider the strength of results given the number of tests performed. The most strongly associated outcomes included leptin, lipid profile, and blood pressure. We also found novel evidence of effects of BMI on a global self-worth score.

Exposure to high levels of environmental lead, or biomarker evidence of high body lead content, is associated with anaemia, developmental and neurological deficits in children, and increased mortality in adults. Adverse effects of lead still occur despite substantial reduction in environmental exposure. There is genetic variation between individuals in blood lead concentration but the polymorphisms contributing to this have not been defined. We measured blood or erythrocyte lead content, and carried out genome-wide association analysis, on population-based cohorts of adult volunteers from Australia and UK (N = 5433). Samples from Australia were collected in two studies, in 1993-1996 and 2002-2005 and from UK in 1991-1992. One locus, at ALAD on chromosome 9, showed consistent association with blood lead across countries and evidence for multiple independent allelic effects. The most significant single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs1805313 (P = 3.91 × 10(-14) for lead concentration in a meta-analysis of all data), is known to have effects on ALAD expression in blood cells but other SNPs affecting ALAD expression did not affect blood lead. Variants at 12 other loci, including ABO, showed suggestive associations (5 × 10(-6) > P > 5 × 10(-8)). Identification of genetic polymorphisms affecting blood lead reinforces the view that genetic factors, as well as environmental ones, are important in determining blood lead levels. The ways in which ALAD variation affects lead uptake or distribution are still to be determined., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Peer behaviour plays an important role in the development of social adjustment, though little is known about its genetic architecture. We conducted a twin study combined with a genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA) and a genome-wide screen to characterise genetic influences on problematic peer behaviour during childhood and adolescence. This included a series of longitudinal measures (parent-reported Strengths-and-Difficulties Questionnaire) from a UK population-based birth-cohort (ALSPAC, 4-17 years), and a UK twin sample (TEDS, 4-11 years). Longitudinal twin analysis (TEDS; N ≤ 7,366 twin pairs) showed that peer problems in childhood are heritable (4-11 years, 0.60 < twin-h(2) ≤ 0.71) but genetically heterogeneous from age to age (4-11 years, twin-r(g) = 0.30). GCTA (ALSPAC: N ≤ 5,608, TEDS: N ≤ 2,691) provided furthermore little support for the contribution of measured common genetic variants during childhood (4-12 years, 0.02 < GCTA-h(2)(Meta) ≤ 0.11) though these influences become stronger in adolescence (13-17 years, 0.14 < GCTA-h (2)(ALSPAC) ≤ 0.27). A subsequent cross-sectional genome-wide screen in ALSPAC (N ≤ 6,000) focussed on peer problems with the highest GCTA-heritability (10, 13 and 17 years, 0.0002 < GCTA-P ≤ 0.03). Single variant signals (P ≤ 10(-5)) were followed up in TEDS (N ≤ 2835, 9 and 11 years) and, in search for autism quantitative trait loci, explored within two autism samples (AGRE: N Pedigrees = 793; ACC: N Cases = 1,453/N Controls = 7,070). There was, however, no evidence for association in TEDS and little evidence for an overlap with the autistic continuum. In summary, our findings suggest that problematic peer relationships are heritable but genetically complex and heterogeneous from age to age, with an increase in common measurable genetic variation during adolescence.

Objective: To quantify genetic overlap between migraine and ischemic stroke (IS) with respect to common genetic variation., Methods: We applied 4 different approaches to large-scale meta-analyses of genome-wide data on migraine (23,285 cases and 95,425 controls) and IS (12,389 cases and 62,004 controls). First, we queried known genome-wide significant loci for both disorders, looking for potential overlap of signals. We then analyzed the overall shared genetic load using polygenic scores and estimated the genetic correlation between disease subtypes using data derived from these models. We further interrogated genomic regions of shared risk using analysis of covariance patterns between the 2 phenotypes using cross-phenotype spatial mapping., Results: We found substantial genetic overlap between migraine and IS using all 4 approaches. Migraine without aura (MO) showed much stronger overlap with IS and its subtypes than migraine with aura (MA). The strongest overlap existed between MO and large artery stroke (LAS; p = 6.4 × 10(-28) for the LAS polygenic score in MO) and between MO and cardioembolic stroke (CE; p = 2.7 × 10(-20) for the CE score in MO)., Conclusions: Our findings indicate shared genetic susceptibility to migraine and IS, with a particularly strong overlap between MO and both LAS and CE pointing towards shared mechanisms. Our observations on MA are consistent with a limited role of common genetic variants in this subtype., (© 2015 American Academy of Neurology.)

Variation in plasma levels of cortisol, an essential hormone in the stress response, is associated in population-based studies with cardio-metabolic, inflammatory and neuro-cognitive traits and diseases. Heritability of plasma cortisol is estimated at 30-60% but no common genetic contribution has been identified. The CORtisol NETwork (CORNET) consortium undertook genome wide association meta-analysis for plasma cortisol in 12,597 Caucasian participants, replicated in 2,795 participants. The results indicate that <1% of variance in plasma cortisol is accounted for by genetic variation in a single region of chromosome 14. This locus spans SERPINA6, encoding corticosteroid binding globulin (CBG, the major cortisol-binding protein in plasma), and SERPINA1, encoding α1-antitrypsin (which inhibits cleavage of the reactive centre loop that releases cortisol from CBG). Three partially independent signals were identified within the region, represented by common SNPs; detailed biochemical investigation in a nested sub-cohort showed all these SNPs were associated with variation in total cortisol binding activity in plasma, but some variants influenced total CBG concentrations while the top hit (rs12589136) influenced the immunoreactivity of the reactive centre loop of CBG. Exome chip and 1000 Genomes imputation analysis of this locus in the CROATIA-Korcula cohort identified missense mutations in SERPINA6 and SERPINA1 that did not account for the effects of common variants. These findings reveal a novel common genetic source of variation in binding of cortisol by CBG, and reinforce the key role of CBG in determining plasma cortisol levels. In turn this genetic variation may contribute to cortisol-associated degenerative diseases.

Written and verbal languages are neurobehavioral traits vital to the development of communication skills. Unfortunately, disorders involving these traits-specifically reading disability (RD) and language impairment (LI)-are common and prevent affected individuals from developing adequate communication skills, leaving them at risk for adverse academic, socioeconomic and psychiatric outcomes. Both RD and LI are complex traits that frequently co-occur, leading us to hypothesize that these disorders share genetic etiologies. To test this, we performed a genome-wide association study on individuals affected with both RD and LI in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. The strongest associations were seen with markers in ZNF385D (OR = 1.81, P = 5.45 × 10(-7) ) and COL4A2 (OR = 1.71, P = 7.59 × 10(-7) ). Markers within NDST4 showed the strongest associations with LI individually (OR = 1.827, P = 1.40 × 10(-7) ). We replicated association of ZNF385D using receptive vocabulary measures in the Pediatric Imaging Neurocognitive Genetics study (P = 0.00245). We then used diffusion tensor imaging fiber tract volume data on 16 fiber tracts to examine the implications of replicated markers. ZNF385D was a predictor of overall fiber tract volumes in both hemispheres, as well as global brain volume. Here, we present evidence for ZNF385D as a candidate gene for RD and LI. The implication of transcription factor ZNF385D in RD and LI underscores the importance of transcriptional regulation in the development of higher order neurocognitive traits. Further study is necessary to discern target genes of ZNF385D and how it functions within neural development of fluent language., (© 2013 The Authors. Genes, Brain and Behavior published by International Behavioural and Neural Genetics Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)