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Genome wide association studies show there is a genetic component to severe COVID-19. We find evidence that the genome-wide genetic association signal with severe COVID-19 is correlated with that of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), having formally tested this using genetic correlation analysis by LD score regression. To identify the shared associated loci and gain insight into the shared genetic effects, using summary level data we performed meta-analyses, a local genetic correlation analysis and fine-mapping using stepwise regression and functional annotation. This identified multiple loci shared between the two traits, some of which exert opposing effects. The locus with most evidence of shared association is TYK2, a gene critical to the type I interferon pathway, where the local genetic correlation is negative. Another shared locus is CLEC1A, where the direction of effects is aligned, that encodes a lectin involved in cell signaling, and the anti-fungal immune response. Our analyses suggest that several loci with reciprocal effects between the two traits have a role in the defense response pathway, adding to the evidence that SLE risk alleles are protective against infection.

ObjectiveUsing three European and two Chinese genome-wide association studies (GWAS), we investigated the performance of genetic risk scores (GRS) for predicting the susceptibility and severity of Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), using renal disease as a proxy for severity.MethodsWe used four GWASs to test the performance of GRS both cross validating within the European population and between European and Chinese populations. The performance of GRS in SLE risk prediction was evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. We then analyzed the polygenic nature of SLE statistically. We also partitioned patients according to their age-of-onset and evaluated the predictability of GRS in disease severity in each age group.ResultsWe found consistently that the best GRS in the prediction of SLE used SNPs associated at the level of PP-values above 0.2 were inflated for SLE true positive signals. The GRS results in an area under the ROC curve ranging between 0.64 and 0.72, within European and between the European and Chinese populations. We further showed a significant positive correlation between a GRS and renal disease in two independent European GWAS (Pcohort1=2.44e-08; Pcohort2=0.00205) and a significant negative correlation with age of SLE onset (Pcohort1=1.76e-12; Pcohort2=0.00384). We found that the GRS performed better in prediction of renal disease in the ‘later onset’ compared to the ‘earlier onset’ group.ConclusionThe GRS predicts SLE in both European and Chinese populations and correlates with poorer prognostic factors: young age of onset and lupus nephritis.