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Accurate estimation of carrier probabilities of cancer susceptibility gene mutations is an important part of pre-test genetic counselling. Many predictive models are available but their applicability in the Asian population is uncertain. We evaluated the performance of five BRCA mutation risk predictive models in a Chinese cohort of 647 women, who underwent germline DNA sequencing of a cancer susceptibility gene panel. Using areas under the curve (AUCs) on receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves as performance measures, the models did comparably well as in western cohorts (BOADICEA 0.75, BRCAPRO 0.73, Penn II 0.69, Myriad 0.68). For unaffected women with family history of breast or ovarian cancer (n = 144), BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, and Tyrer-Cuzick models had excellent performance (AUC 0.93, 0.92, and 0.92, respectively). For women with both personal and family history of breast or ovarian cancer (n = 241), all models performed fairly well (BOADICEA 0.79, BRCAPRO 0.79, Penn II 0.75, Myriad 0.70). For women with personal history of breast or ovarian cancer but no family history (n = 262), most models did poorly. Between the two well-performed models, BOADICEA underestimated mutation risks while BRCAPRO overestimated mutation risks (expected/observed ratio 0.67 and 2.34, respectively). Among 424 women with personal history of breast cancer and available tumor ER/PR/HER2 data, the predictive models performed better for women with triple negative breast cancer (AUC 0.74 to 0.80) than for women with luminal or HER2 overexpressed breast cancer (AUC 0.63 to 0.69). However, incorporating ER/PR/HER2 status into the BOADICEA model calculation did not improve its predictive accuracy.

Identifying Lynch syndrome significantly impacts cancer risk management, treatment, and prognosis. Validation of mutation risk predictive models for mismatch repair (MMR) genes is crucial for guiding genetic counseling and testing, particularly in the understudied Asian population. We evaluated the performance of four MMR mutation risk predictive models in a Chinese cohort of 604 patients with colorectal cancer (CRC), endometrial cancer (EC), or ovarian cancer (OC) in Taiwan. All patients underwent germline genetic testing and 36 (6.0%) carried a mutation in the MMR genes (MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2). All models demonstrated good performance, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves comparable to Western cohorts: PREMM5 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.88), MMRPro 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82–0.94), MMRPredict 0.82 (95% CI, 0.74–0.90), and Myriad 0.76 (95% CI, 0.67–0.84). Notably, MMRPro exhibited exceptional performance across all subgroups regardless of family history (FH+ 0.88, FH‐ 0.83), cancer type (CRC 0.84, EC 0.85, OC 1.00), or sex (male 0.83, female 0.90). PREMM5 and MMRPredict had good accuracy in the FH+ subgroup (0.85 and 0.82, respectively) and in CRC patients (0.76 and 0.82, respectively). Using the ratio of observed and predicted mutation rates, MMRPro and PREMM5 had good overall fit, while MMRPredict and Myriad overestimated mutation rates. Risk threshold settings in different models led to different positive predictive values. We suggest a lower threshold (5%) for recommending genetic testing when using MMRPro, and a higher threshold (20%) when using PREMM5 and MMRPredict. Our findings have important implications for personalized mutation risk assessment and counseling on genetic testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Germline and somatic deficiencies of mismatch repair proteins (MMRd) are related to colorectal and endometrial cancers, but the survival impact in Asian patients remains unclear. We investigated the prevalence and outcomes of patients with germline and/or somatic MMRd. Germline and somatic MMRd were determined by gene sequencing and protein staining of tumor samples, respectively. We found that colorectal and endometrial cancer patients with germline MMRd have favorable survival outcomes compared to those without, regardless of somatic MMRd status. These findings highlight the importance of germline genetic testing when tumor MMRd is detected. Germline (Lynch syndrome, LS) and somatic deficiencies of mismatch repair proteins (MMRd) are linked to colorectal and endometrial cancer; however, their prognostic impact in Asian populations remains unclear. This prospective cohort study aimed to determine the prevalence and outcome of germline and somatic MMRd in cancer patients suspected of LS. Patients with colorectal or endometrial cancer suspected of LS were enrolled and underwent gene sequencing for germline MMRd (gMMRd) and immunohistochemistry staining of MMR proteins in a subset of the pathological samples (pMMRd). Among the 451 enrolled patients, 36 patients were gMMRd (+). Compared with gMMRd (−) patients, the 10-year relapse-free survival in gMMRd (+) patients was significantly higher (100% vs. 77.9%; p = 0.006), whereas the 10-year overall survival was similar (100% vs. 90.9%; p = 0.12). Among the 102 gMMRd (−) patients with available pMMR status, 13.7% were pMMRd (+). The 5-year relapse-free survival was 62.9% in gMMRd (−) pMMRd (+) patients and 35.0% in gMMRd (−) pMMRd (−) patients, both lower than gMMRd (+) patients (100%; p < 0.001). This study showed that having LS confers a favorable outcome in colorectal and endometrial cancer patients and highlights the importance of germline genetic testing following the detection of somatic MMRd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]