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Most traits of economic importance in livestock are either quantitative or complex. Despite considerable efforts, there has been only limited success in identifying the polymorphisms that cause variation in these traits. Nevertheless, selection based on estimated breeding values (BVs), calculated from data on phenotypic performance and pedigree has been very successful. Genomic tools, such as single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) chips, have led to a new method of selection called ‘genomic selection’ in which dense SNP genotypes covering the genome are used to predict the BV. In this review we consider the statistical methodology for estimating BVs from SNP data, factors affecting the accuracy, the long-term response to genomic selection and the design of breeding programmes including the management of inbreeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most common diseases are caused by multiple genetic and environmental factors. In the last 2 years, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified polymorphisms that are associated with risk to common disease, but the effect of any one risk allele is typically small. By combining information from many risk variants, will it be possible to predict accurately each individual person''s genetic risk for a disease? In this review we consider the lessons from GWAS and the implications for genetic risk prediction to common disease. We conclude that with larger GWAS sample sizes or by combining studies, accurate prediction of genetic risk will be possible, even if the causal mutations or the mechanisms by which they affect susceptibility are unknown. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Identifying causal variants for complex traits and understanding their function remain arduous tasks. A new study combines the advantages of gene mapping in livestock with elegant genetic and functional analyses to address these challenges and identifies candidate regulatory variants affecting stature in cattle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical studies suggest that the effect sizes of individual causal risk alleles underlying complex genetic diseases are small, with most genotype relative risks in the range of 1.1-2.0. Although the increased risk of disease for a carrier is small for any single locus, knowledge of multiple-risk alleles throughout the genome could allow the identification of individuals that are at high risk. In this study, we investigate the number and effect size of risk loci that underlie complex disease constrained by the disease parameters of prevalence and heritability. Then we quantify the value of prediction of genetic risk to disease using a range of realistic combinations of the number, size, and distribution of risk effects that underlie complex diseases. We propose an approach to assess the genetic risk of a disease in healthy individuals, based on dense genome-wide SNP panels. We test this approach using simulation. When the number of loci contributing to the disease is >50, a large case-control study is needed to identify a set of risk loci for use in predicting the disease risk of healthy people not included in the case-control study. For diseases controlled by 1000 loci of mean relative risk of only 1.04, a case-control study with 10,000 cases and controls can lead to selection of ∼75 loci that explain >50% of the genetic variance. The 5% of people with the highest predicted risk are three to seven times more likely to suffer the disease than the population average, depending on heritability and disease prevalence. Whether an individual with known genetic risk develops the disease depends on known and unknown environmental factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inbreeding depression, which refers to reduced fitness among offspring of related parents, has traditionally been studied using pedigrees. In practice, pedigree information is difficult to obtain, potentially unreliable, and rarely assessed for inbreeding arising from common ancestors who lived more than a few generations ago. Recently, there has been excitement about using SNP data to estimate inbreeding (F) arising from distant common ancestors in apparently "outbred" populations. Statistical power to detect inbreeding depression using SNP data depends on the actual variation in inbreeding in a population, the accuracy of detecting that with marker data, the effect size, and the sample size. No one has yet investigated what variation in F is expected in SNP data as a function of population size, and it is unclear which estimate of F is optimal for detecting inbreeding depression. In the present study, we use theory, simulated genetic data, and real genetic data to find the optimal estimate of F, to quantify the likely variation in F in populations of various sizes, and to estimate the power to detect inbreeding depression. We find that F estimated from runs of homozygosity (Froh), which reflects shared ancestry of genetic haplotypes, retains variation in even large populations (e.g., SD = 0.5% when Ne = 10,000) and is likely to be the most powerful method of detecting inbreeding effects from among several alternative estimates of F. However, large samples (e.g., 12,000-65,000) will be required to detect inbreeding depression for likely effect sizes, and so studies using Froh to date have probably been underpowered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently a paper authored by ourselves and a number of co-authors about the proportion of phenotypic variation in height that is explained by common SNPs was published in Nature Genetics (Yang et al., 2010). Common SNPs explain a large proportion of the heritability for human height (Yang et al.). During the refereeing process (the paper was rejected by two other journals before publication in Nature Genetics) and following the publication of Yang et al. (2010) it became clear to us that the methodology we applied, the interpretation of the results and the consequences of the findings on the genetic architecture of human height and that for other traits such as complex disease are not well understood or appreciated. Here we explain some of these issues in a style that is different from the primary publication, that is, in the form of a number of comments and questions and answers. We also report a number of additional results that show that the estimates of additive genetic variation are not driven by population structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this Review, we focus on the similarity of the concepts underlying prediction of estimated breeding values (EBVs) in livestock and polygenic risk scores (PRS) in humans. Our research spans both fields and so we recognize factors that are very obvious for those in one field, but less so for those in the other. Differences in family size between species is the wedge that drives the different viewpoints and approaches. Large family size achievable in nonhuman species accompanied by selection generates a smaller effective population size, increased linkage disequilibrium and a higher average genetic relationship between individuals within a population. In human genetic analyses, we select individuals unrelated in the classical sense (coefficient of relationship ,0.05) to estimate heritability captured by common SNPs. In livestock data, all animals within a breed are to some extent "related," and so it is not possible to select unrelated individuals and retain a data set of sufficient size to analyze. These differences directly or indirectly impact the way data analyses are undertaken. In livestock, genetic segregation variance exposed through samplings of parental genomes within families is directly observable and taken for granted. In humans, this genomic variation is under-recognized for its contribution to variation in polygenic risk of common disease, in both those with and without family history of disease. We explore the equation that predicts the expected proportion of variance explained using PRS, and quantify how GWAS sample size is the key factor for maximizing accuracy of prediction in both humans and livestock. Last, we bring together the concepts discussed to address some frequently asked questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The mutations changing the expression level of a gene, or expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL), can be identified by testing the association between genetic variants and gene expression in multiple individuals (eQTL mapping), or by comparing the expression of the alleles in a heterozygous individual (allele specific expression or ASE analysis). The aims of the study were to find and compare ASE and local eQTL in 4 bovine RNA-sequencing (RNA-Seq) datasets, validate them in an independent ASE study and investigate if they are associated with complex trait variation. Results: We present a novel method for distinguishing between ASE driven by polymorphisms in cis and parent of origin effects. We found that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) driving ASE are also often local eQTL and therefore presumably cis eQTL. These SNPs often, but not always, affect gene expression in multiple tissues and, when they do, the allele increasing expression is usually the same. However, there were systematic differences between ASE and local eQTL and between tissues and breeds. We also found that SNPs significantly associated with gene expression (p < 0.001) were likely to influence some complex traits (p < 0.001), which means that some mutations influence variation in complex traits by changing the expression level of genes. Conclusion: We conclude that ASE detects phenomenon that overlap with local eQTL, but there are also systematic differences between the SNPs discovered by the two methods. Some mutations influencing complex traits are actually eQTL and can be discovered using RNA-Seq including eQTL in the genes CAST, CAPN1, LCORL and LEPROTL1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polymorphisms that affect complex traits or quantitative trait loci (QTL) often affect multiple traits. We describe two novel methods (1) for finding single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) significantly associated with one or more traits using a multi-trait, meta-analysis, and (2) for distinguishing between a single pleiotropic QTL and multiple linked QTL. The meta-analysis uses the effect of each SNP on each of n traits, estimated in single trait genome wide association studies (GWAS). These effects are expressed as a vector of signed t-values (t) and the error covariance matrix of these t values is approximated by the correlation matrix of t-values among the traits calculated across the SNP (V). Consequently, t'V−1t is approximately distributed as a chi-squared with n degrees of freedom. An attractive feature of the meta-analysis is that it uses estimated effects of SNPs from single trait GWAS, so it can be applied to published data where individual records are not available. We demonstrate that the multi-trait method can be used to increase the power (numbers of SNPs validated in an independent population) of GWAS in a beef cattle data set including 10,191 animals genotyped for 729,068 SNPs with 32 traits recorded, including growth and reproduction traits. We can distinguish between a single pleiotropic QTL and multiple linked QTL because multiple SNPs tagging the same QTL show the same pattern of effects across traits. We confirm this finding by demonstrating that when one SNP is included in the statistical model the other SNPs have a non-significant effect. In the beef cattle data set, cluster analysis yielded four groups of QTL with similar patterns of effects across traits within a group. A linear index was used to validate SNPs having effects on multiple traits and to identify additional SNPs belonging to these four groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The success of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) has led to increasing interest in making predictions of complex trait phenotypes, including disease, from genotype data. Rigorous assessment of the value of predictors is crucial before implementation. Here we discuss some of the limitations and pitfalls of prediction analysis and show how naive implementations can lead to severe bias and misinterpretation of results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic and fossil evidence supports a single, recent (<200,000 yr) origin of modern Homo sapiens in Africa, followed by later population divergence and dispersal across the globe (the "Out of Africa" model). However, there is less agreement on the exact nature of this migration event and dispersal of populations relative to one another. We use the empirically observed genetic correlation structure (or linkage disequilibrium) between 242,000 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 17 global populations to reconstruct two key parameters of human evolution: effective population size (Ne) and population divergence times (T). A linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based approach allows changes in human population size to be traced over time and reveals a substantial reduction in Ne accompanying the "Out of Africa" exodus as well as the dramatic re-expansion of non-Africans as they spread across the globe. Secondly, two parallel estimates of population divergence times provide clear evidence of population dispersal patterns "Out of Africa" and subsequent dispersal of proto-European and proto-East Asian populations. Estimates of divergence times between European-African and East Asian-African populations are inconsistent with its simplest manifestation: a single dispersal from the continent followed by a split into Western and Eastern Eurasian branches. Rather, population divergence times are consistent with substantial ancient gene flow to the proto-European population after its divergence with proto-East Asians, suggesting distinct, early dispersals of modern . sapiens from Africa. We use stimulated genetic polymorphism data to demonstrate the validity of our conclusions against alternative population demographic scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population structure, including population stratification and cryptic relatedness, can cause spurious associations in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Usually, the scaled median or mean test statistic for association calculated from multiple single-nucleotide-polymorphisms across the genome is used to assess such effects, and 'genomic control' can be applied subsequently to adjust test statistics at individual loci by a genomic inflation factor. Published GWAS have clearly shown that there are many loci underlying genetic variation for a wide range of complex diseases and traits, implying that a substantial proportion of the genome should show inflation of the test statistic. Here, we show by theory, simulation and analysis of data that in the absence of population structure and other technical artefacts, but in the presence of polygenic inheritance, substantial genomic inflation is expected. Its magnitude depends on sample size, heritability, linkage disequilibrium structure and the number of causal variants. Our predictions are consistent with empirical observations on height in independent samples of ∼4000 and ∼133 000 individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genomic selection describes a selection strategy based on genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) predicted from dense genetic markers such as single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data. Different Bayesian models have been suggested to derive the prediction equation, with the main difference centred around the specification of the prior distributions. Methods: The simulated dataset of the 13th QTL-MAS workshop was analysed using four Bayesian approaches to predict GEBV for animals without phenotypic information. Different prior distributions were assumed to assess their affect on the accuracy of the predicted GEBV. Conclusion: All methods produced GEBV that were highly correlated with the true breeding values. The models appear relatively insensitive to the choice of prior distributions for QTL-MAS data set and this is consistent with uniformity of performance of different methods found in real data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genomic selection describes a selection strategy based on genomic breeding values predicted from dense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data. Multiple methods have been proposed but the critical issue is how to decide whether an SNP should be included in the predictive set to estimate breeding values. One major disadvantage of the traditional Bayes B approach is its high computational demands caused by the changing dimensionality of the models. The use of stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) retains the same assumptions about the distribution of SNP effects as Bayes B, while maintaining constant dimensionality. When Bayesian SSVS was used to predict genomic breeding values for real dairy data over a range of traits it produced accuracies higher or equivalent to other genomic selection methods with significantly decreased computational and time demands than Bayes B. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for quantitative traits and disease in humans and other species have shown that there are many loci that contribute to the observed resemblance between relatives. GWAS to date have mostly focussed on discovery of genes or regulatory regions habouring causative polymorphisms, using single SNP analyses and setting stringent type-I error rates. Genome-wide marker data can also be used to predict genetic values and therefore predict phenotypes. Here, we propose a Bayesian method that utilises all marker data simultaneously to predict phenotypes. We apply the method to three traits: coat colour, %CD8 cells, and mean cell haemoglobin, measured in a heterogeneous stock mouse population. We find that a model that contains both additive and dominance effects, estimated from genome-wide marker data, is successful in predicting unobserved phenotypes and is significantly better than a prediction based upon the phenotypes of close relatives. Correlations between predicted and actual phenotypes were in the range of 0.4 to 0.9 when half of the number of families was used to estimate effects and the other half for prediction. Posterior probabilities of SNPs being associated with coat colour were high for regions that are known to contain loci for this trait. The prediction of phenotypes using large samples, high-density SNP data, and appropriate statistical methodology is feasible and can be applied in human medicine, forensics, or artificial selection programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A response from the author of the article "Pitfalls of predicting complex traits from SNPs" in the 2013 issue is presented.