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The joint distribution of selection coefficients and mutation rates is a key determinant of the genetic architecture of molecular adaptation. Three different distributions are of immediate interest: (1) the "nominal" distribution of possible changes, prior to mutation or selection; (2) the "de novo" distribution of realized mutations; and (3) the "fixed" distribution of selectively established mutations. Here, we formally characterize the relationships between these joint distributions under the strong-selection/weak-mutation (SSWM) regime. The de novo distribution is enriched relative to the nominal distribution for the highest rate mutations, and the fixed distribution is further enriched for the most highly beneficial mutations. Whereas mutation rates and selection coefficients are often assumed to be uncorrelated, we show that even with no correlation in the nominal distribution, the resulting de novo and fixed distributions can have correlations with any combination of signs. Nonetheless, we suggest that natural systems with a finite number of beneficial mutations will frequently have the kind of nominal distribution that induces negative correlations in the fixed distribution. We apply our mathematical framework, along with population simulations, to explore joint distributions of selection coefficients and mutation rates from deep mutational scanning and cancer informatics. Finally, we consider the evolutionary implications of these joint distributions together with two additional joint distributions relevant to parallelism and the rate of adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting evolutionary outcomes is an important research goal in a diversity of contexts. The focus of evolutionary forecasting is usually on adaptive processes, and efforts to improve prediction typically focus on selection. However, adaptive processes often rely on new mutations, which can be strongly influenced by predictable biases in mutation. Here, we provide an overview of existing theory and evidence for such mutation-biased adaptation and consider the implications of these results for the problem of prediction, in regard to topics such as the evolution of infectious diseases, resistance to biochemical agents, as well as cancer and other kinds of somatic evolution. We argue that empirical knowledge of mutational biases is likely to improve in the near future, and that this knowledge is readily applicable to the challenges of short-term prediction. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolutionary adaptation often occurs by the fixation of beneficial mutations. This mode of adaptation can be characterized quantitatively by a spectrum of adaptive substitutions, i.e., a distribution for types of changes fixed in adaptation. Recent work establishes that the changes involved in adaptation reflect common types of mutations, raising the question of how strongly the mutation spectrum shapes the spectrum of adaptive substitutions. We address this question with a codon-based model for the spectrum of adaptive amino acid substitutions, applied to three large datasets covering thousands of amino acid changes identified in natural and experimental adaptation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Escherichia coli, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Using speciesspecific mutation spectra based on prior knowledge, we find that the mutation spectrum has a proportional influence on the spectrum of adaptive substitutions in all three species. Indeed, we find that by inferring the mutation rates that best explain the spectrum of adaptive substitutions, we can accurately recover the species-specific mutation spectra. However, we also find that the predictive power of the model differs substantially between the three species. To better understand these differences, we use population simulations to explore the factors that influence how closely the spectrum of adaptive substitutions mirrors the mutation spectrum. The results show that the influence of the mutation spectrum decreases with increasing mutational supply (Nμ) and that predictive power is strongly affected by the number and diversity of beneficial mutations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-level debates in evolutionary biology often treat the Modern Synthesis as a framework of population genetics, or as an intellectual lineage with a changing distribution of beliefs. Unfortunately, these flexible notions, used to negotiate decades of innovations, are now thoroughly detached from their historical roots in the original Modern Synthesis (OMS), a falsifiable scientific theory. The OMS held that evolution can be adequately understood as a process of smooth adaptive change by shifting the frequencies of small-effect alleles at many loci simultaneously, without the direct involvement of new mutations. This shifting gene frequencies theory was designed to support a Darwinian view in which the course of evolution is governed by selection, and to exclude a mutation-driven view in which the timing and character of evolutionary change may reflect the timing and character of events of mutation. The OMS is not the foundation of current thinking, but a special case of a broader conception that includes (among other things) a mutation-driven view introduced by biochemists in the 1960s, and now widely invoked. This innovation is evident in mathematical models relating the rate of evolution directly to the rate of mutation, which emerged in 1969, and now represent a major branch of theory with many applications. In evo-devo, mutationist thinking is reflected by a concern for the "arrival of the fittest". Though evolutionary biology is not governed by any master theory, and incorporates views excluded from the OMS, the recognition of these changes has been hindered by woolly conceptions of theories, and by historical accounts, common in the evolutionary literature, that misrepresent the disputes that defined the OMS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The origin and evolution of “ORFans” (suspected genes without known relatives) remain unclear. Here, we take advantage of a unique opportunity to examine the population diversity of thousands of ORFans, based on a collection of 35 complete genomes of isolates of Escherichia coli and Shigella (which is included phylogenetically within E. coli). As expected from previous studies, ORFans are shorter and AT-richer in sequence than non-ORFans. We find that ORFans often are very narrowly distributed: the most common pattern is for an ORFan to be found in only one genome. We compared within-species population diversity of ORFan genes with those of two control groups of non-ORFan genes. Patterns of population variation suggest that most ORFans are not artifacts, but encode real genes whose protein-coding capacity is conserved, reflecting selection against nonsynonymous mutations. Nevertheless, nonsynonymous nucleotide diversity is higher than for non-ORFans, whereas synonymous diversity is roughly the same. In particular, there is a several-fold excess of ORFans in the highest decile of diversity relative to controls, which might be due to weaker purifying selection, positive selection, or a subclass of ORFans that are decaying. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructive neutral evolution (CNE) suggests that neutral evolution may follow a stepwise path to extravagance. Whether or not CNE is common, the mere possibility raises provocative questions about causation: in classical neo-Darwinian thinking, selection is the sole source of creativity and direction, the only force that can cause trends or build complex features. However, much of contemporary evolutionary genetics departs from the conception of evolution underlying neo-Darwinism, resulting in a widening gap between what formal models allow, and what the prevailing view of the causes of evolution suggests. In particular, a mutationist conception of evolution as a 2-step origin-fixation process has been a source of theoretical innovation for 40 years, appearing not only in the Neutral Theory, but also in recent breakthroughs in modeling adaptation (the "mutational landscape" model), and in practical software for sequence analysis. In this conception, mutation is not a source of raw materials, but an agent that introduces novelty, while selection is not an agent that shapes features, but a stochastic sieve. This view, which now lays claim to important theoretical, experimental, and practical results, demands our attention. CNE provides a way to explore its most significant implications about the role of variation in evolution. Reviewers: Alex Kondrashov, Eugene Koonin and Johann Peter Gogarten reviewed this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The classic view of evolution as "shifting gene frequencies" in the Modern Synthesis literally means that evolution is the modulation of existing variation ("standing variation"), as opposed to a "new mutations" view of evolution as a 2-step process of mutational origin followed by acceptance-or-rejection (via selection and drift). The latter view has received renewed attention, yet its implications for evolutionary causation still are not widely understood. We review theoretical results showing that this conception of evolution allows for a role of mutation as a cause of nonrandomness, a role that could be important but has been misconceived and associated misleadingly with neutral evolution. Specifically, biases in the introduction of variation, including mutational biases, may impose predictable biases on evolution, with no necessary dependence on neutrality. As an example of how important such effects may be, we present a new analysis partitioning the variance in mean rates of amino acid replacement during human-chimpanzee divergence to components of codon mutation and amino acid exchangeability. The results indicate that mutational effects are not merely important but account for most of the variance explained. The challenge that such results pose for comparative genomics is to address mutational effects as a necessary part of any analysis of causal factors. To meet this challenge requires developing knowledge of mutation as a biological process, understanding how mutation imposes propensities on evolution, and applying methods of analysis that incorporate mutational effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the genetic code first was determined, many have claimed that it is organized adaptively, so as to assign similar codons to similar amino acids. This claim has proved difficult to establish due to the absence of relevant comparative data on alternative primordial codes and of objective measures of amino acid exchangeability. Here we use a recently developed measure of exchangeability to evaluate a null hypothesis and two alternative hypotheses about the adaptiveness of the genetic code. The null hypothesis that there is no tendency for exchangeable amino acids to be assigned to similar codons can be excluded here as expected from earlier work. The first alternative hypothesis is that any such correlation between codon distance and amino acid distance is due to incremental mechanisms of code evolution, and not to adaptation to reduce deleterious effects of future mutations. More specifically, new codon assignments that occur by ambiguity reduction or by codon capture will tend to give rise to correlations, whether due to the condition of amino acid ambiguity, or to the condition of similarity between a new tRNA synthetase (or tRNA) and its parent. The second alternative hypothesis, the adaptive hypothesis, then may be defined as an excess relative to what may be expected given the incremental nature of evolution, reflecting true adaptation for robustness rather than an incidental effect. The results reported here indicate that most of the nonrandomness in the amino acids to codon assignments can be explained by incremental code evolution, with a small residue of orderliness that may reflect code adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rediscovery of Mendel's laws a century ago launched the science that William Bateson called “genetics,” and led to a new view of evolution combining selection, particulate inheritance, and the newly characterized phenomenon of “mutation.” This “mutationist” view clashed with the earlier view of Darwin, and the later “Modern Synthesis,” by allowing discontinuity, and by recognizing mutation (or more properly, mutation-and-altered-development) as a source of creativity, direction, and initiative. By the mid-20th century, the opposing Modern Synthesis view was a prevailing orthodoxy: under its influence, “evolution” was redefined as “shifting gene frequencies,” that is, the sorting out of pre-existing variation without new mutations; and the notion that mutation-and-altered-development can exert a predictable influence on the course of evolutionary change was seen as heretical. Nevertheless, mutationist ideas re-surfaced: the notion of mutational determinants of directionality emerged in molecular evolution by 1962, followed in the 1980s by an interest among evolutionary developmental biologists in a shaping or creative role of developmental propensities of variation, and more recently, a recognition by theoretical evolutionary geneticists of the importance of discontinuity and of new mutations in adaptive dynamics. The synthetic challenge presented by these innovations is to integrate mutation-and-altered-development into a new understanding of the dual causation of evolutionary change—a broader and more predictive understanding that already can lay claim to important empirical and theoretical results—and to develop a research program appropriately emphasizing the emergence of variation as a cause of propensities of evolutionary change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comparative analysis of protein sequences depends crucially on measures of amino acid similarity or distance. Many such measures exist, yet it is not known how well these measures reflect the operational exchangeability of amino acids in proteins, since most are derived by methods that confound a variety of effects, including effects of mutation. In pursuit of a pure measure of exchangeability, we present (1) a compilation of data on the effects of 9671 amino acid exchanges engineered and assayed in a set of 12 proteins; (2) a statistical procedure to combine results from diverse assays of exchange effects; (3) a matrix of "experimental exchangeability" values EXij derived from applying this procedure to the compiled data; and (4) a set of three tests designed to evaluate the power of an exchangeability measure to (i) predict the effects of amino acid exchanges in the laboratory, (ii) account for the disease-causing potential of missense mutations in the human population, and (iii) model the probability of fixation of missense mutations in evolution. EX not only captures useful information on exchangeability while remaining free of other effects, but also outperforms all measures tested except for the best-performing alignment scoring matrix, which is comparable in performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the research "Contribution of a mutational hot spot to hemoglobin adaptation in high-altitude Andean house wrens," by S. C. Galen and colleagues. Topics discussed include previous studies on the idea of altitude adaptation influencing changes in hemoglobin, Galen and colleagues' suggestion that change is taking place due to a higher rate of mutational origination and concerns over the lack of measurement of mutation rate at the implicated CpG site.