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1. Many Labs 5: Testing Pre-Data-Collection Peer Review as an Intervention to Increase Replicability

Author

Lena F. Aeschbach, Balazs Aczel, Maria Vlachou, Blair Saunders, Jennifer A. Joy-Gaba, Ailsa E. Millen, Christopher R. Chartier, Danielle J. Kellier, Carlo Chiorri, Damian Pieńkosz, Tiago Jessé Souza de Lima, Sean Hughes, Carmel A. Levitan, Luca Andrighetto, Mallory C. Kidwell, Domenico Viganola, Sebastiaan Pessers, Sue Kraus, Claudia Chloe Brumbaugh, John E. Edlund, Ernest Baskin, Anna Fedor, Brett Mercier, Michał J. Białek, Sean Coary, Antonia M. Ciunci, Bence E. Bakos, Jon Grahe, Sabina Kołodziej, Radomir Belopavlović, Emilian Pękala, William J. Chopik, Rosanna E. Guadagno, Don A. Moore, Florian Brühlmann, Gideon Nave, Katarzyna Idzikowska, Rachel L. Shubella, Ryan J. Walker, Orsolya Szöke, Mathias Kauff, Ana Orlić, Sara Steegen, Hans IJzerman, Katarzyna Kuchno, Mitchell M. Metzger, Heather M. Claypool, Michael J. Wood, Samuel Lincoln Bezerra Lins, Michael C. Frank, Benjamin Dering, Iris Žeželj, Erica Baranski, Sophia C. Weissgerber, Timothy Razza, Leanne Boucher, Magnus Johannesson, R. Weylin Sternglanz, Yiling Chen, Maya B. Mathur, Christian Nunnally, Jonathan Ravid, Charles R. Ebersole, Lauren Skorb, Kurt Schuepfer, Łukasz Markiewicz, Thomas Schultze, Katherine S. Corker, Thomas Pfeiffer, Darko Stojilović, Oliver Christ, Kayla Ashbaugh, Alan Jern, Caio Ambrosio Lage, Filipe Falcão, Austin Lee Nichols, Peter Babincak, Mauro Giacomantonio, Sean C. Rife, Rafał Muda, Lacy E. Krueger, Jeremy K. Miller, Juliette Richetin, Martin Corley, Venus Meyet, W. Matthew Collins, Luana Elayne Cunha de Souza, Lynda A. R. Stein, Christopher Day, Erica Casini, Astrid Schütz, Ann-Kathrin Torka, Anna Dreber, Diane-Jo Bart-Plange, Steffen R. Giessner, Holly Arrow, Przemysław Sawicki, Joachim Hüffmeier, Ian R. Ferguson, Anna Dalla Rosa, Natasha Tidwell, Hause Lin, Matthew R. Penner, Boban Petrović, Bojana Bodroža, Janos Salamon, Josiah P. J. King, Mark Zrubka, Diane B. V. Bonfiglio, Stefan Schulz-Hardt, Emily Fryberger, Gabriel Baník, David Zealley, Amanda M. Kimbrough, Ewa Hałasa, William Jiménez-Leal, Angelo Panno, Karolina Krasuska, Michael Inzlicht, Jack Arnal, Madhavi Menon, Jia E. Loy, Vanessa S. Kolb, Nicholas G. Bloxsom, Michael H. Bernstein, Máire B. Ford, Grecia Kessinger, Marija V. Čolić, Wolf Vanpaemel, Barnabas Szaszi, Carly tocco, Nick Buttrick, Emanuele Preti, Andres Montealegre, Brian A. Nosek, Katarzyna Gawryluk, Kaylis Hase Rudy, Leigh Ann Vaughn, Anna Palinkas, Rúben Silva, Daniel Wolf, Sarah A. Novak, Aaron L. Wichman, Manuela Thomae, Adam Siegel, Ivana Pedović, Eleanor V. Langford, Kathleen Schmidt, Daniel Storage, Attila Szuts, Ljiljana B. Lazarević, Paul G. Curran, Rias A. Hilliard, Alexander Garinther, Joshua K. Hartshorne, Ani N. Shabazian, Tiago Ramos, Peter Szecsi, Hugh Rabagliati, Kimberly P. Parks, Lily Feinberg, Dylan Manfredi, Ivan Ropovik, Katrin Rentzsch, Michelangelo Vianello, Barbara Sioma, Marton Kovacs, Francis Tuerlinckx, Peter J. B. Hancock, Bradford J. Wiggins, Gavin Brent Sullivan, Danka Purić, Laboratoire Inter-universitaire de Psychologie : Personnalité, Cognition, Changement Social (LIP-PC2S), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry]), Department of Organisation and Personnel Management, Human Resource Excellence, Ebersole, C, Mathur, M, Baranski, E, Bart-Plange, D, Buttrick, N, Chartier, C, Corker, K, Corley, M, Hartshorne, J, Ijzerman, H, Lazarević, L, Rabagliati, H, Ropovik, I, Aczel, B, Aeschbach, L, Andrighetto, L, Arnal, J, Arrow, H, Babincak, P, Bakos, B, Baník, G, Baskin, E, Belopavlović, R, Bernstein, M, Białek, M, Bloxsom, N, Bodroža, B, Bonfiglio, D, Boucher, L, Brühlmann, F, Brumbaugh, C, Casini, E, Chen, Y, Chiorri, C, Chopik, W, Christ, O, Ciunci, A, Claypool, H, Coary, S, Čolić, M, Collins, W, Curran, P, Day, C, Dering, B, Dreber, A, Edlund, J, Falcão, F, Fedor, A, Feinberg, L, Ferguson, I, Ford, M, Frank, M, Fryberger, E, Garinther, A, Gawryluk, K, Ashbaugh, K, Giacomantonio, M, Giessner, S, Grahe, J, Guadagno, R, Hałasa, E, Hancock, P, Hilliard, R, Hüffmeier, J, Hughes, S, Idzikowska, K, Inzlicht, M, Jern, A, Jiménez-Leal, W, Johannesson, M, Joy-Gaba, J, Kauff, M, Kellier, D, Kessinger, G, Kidwell, M, Kimbrough, A, King, J, Kolb, V, Kołodziej, S, Kovacs, M, Krasuska, K, Kraus, S, Krueger, L, Kuchno, K, Lage, C, Langford, E, Levitan, C, de Lima, T, Lin, H, Lins, S, Loy, J, Manfredi, D, Markiewicz, Ł, Menon, M, Mercier, B, Metzger, M, Meyet, V, Millen, A, Miller, J, Montealegre, A, Moore, D, Muda, R, Nave, G, Nichols, A, Novak, S, Nunnally, C, Orlić, A, Palinkas, A, Panno, A, Parks, K, Pedović, I, Pękala, E, Penner, M, Pessers, S, Petrović, B, Pfeiffer, T, Pieńkosz, D, Preti, E, Purić, D, Ramos, T, Ravid, J, Razza, T, Rentzsch, K, Richetin, J, Rife, S, Rosa, A, Rudy, K, Salamon, J, Saunders, B, Sawicki, P, Schmidt, K, Schuepfer, K, Schultze, T, Schulz-Hardt, S, Schütz, A, Shabazian, A, Shubella, R, Siegel, A, Silva, R, Sioma, B, Skorb, L, de Souza, L, Steegen, S, Stein, L, Sternglanz, R, Stojilović, D, Storage, D, Sullivan, G, Szaszi, B, Szecsi, P, Szöke, O, Szuts, A, Thomae, M, Tidwell, N, Tocco, C, Torka, A, Tuerlinckx, F, Vanpaemel, W, Vaughn, L, Vianello, M, Viganola, D, Vlachou, M, Walker, R, Weissgerber, S, Wichman, A, Wiggins, B, Wolf, D, Wood, M, Zealley, D, Žeželj, I, Zrubka, M, Nosek, B, and Faculdade de Psicologia e de Ciências da Educação

Subjects
replication, metascience, Registered Reports, biology, media_common.quotation_subject, Curran, 05 social sciences, [SHS.PSY]Humanities and Social Sciences/Psychology, open data, Art history, 050109 social psychology, Art, biology.organism_classification, preregistered, 050105 experimental psychology, Attila, [STAT.ML]Statistics [stat]/Machine Learning [stat.ML], 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences, reproducibility, [STAT.ME]Statistics [stat]/Methodology [stat.ME], General Psychology, media_common
Abstract

Additional co-authors: Ivan Ropovik, Balazs Aczel, Lena F. Aeschbach, Luca Andrighetto, Jack D. Arnal, Holly Arrow, Peter Babincak, Bence E. Bakos, Gabriel Banik, Ernest Baskin, Radomir Belopavlovic, Michael H. Bernstein, Michal Bialek, Nicholas G. Bloxsom, Bojana Bodroža, Diane B. V. Bonfiglio, Leanne Boucher, Florian Bruhlmann, Claudia C. Brumbaugh, Erica Casini, Yiling Chen, Carlo Chiorri, William J. Chopik, Oliver Christ, Antonia M. Ciunci, Heather M. Claypool, Sean Coary, Marija V. Cˇolic, W. Matthew Collins, Paul G. Curran, Chris R. Day, Anna Dreber, John E. Edlund, Filipe Falcao, Anna Fedor, Lily Feinberg, Ian R. Ferguson, Maire Ford, Michael C. Frank, Emily Fryberger, Alexander Garinther, Katarzyna Gawryluk, Kayla Ashbaugh, Mauro Giacomantonio, Steffen R. Giessner, Jon E. Grahe, Rosanna E. Guadagno, Ewa Halasa, Rias A. Hilliard, Joachim Huffmeier, Sean Hughes, Katarzyna Idzikowska, Michael Inzlicht, Alan Jern, William Jimenez-Leal, Magnus Johannesson, Jennifer A. Joy-Gaba, Mathias Kauff, Danielle J. Kellier, Grecia Kessinger, Mallory C. Kidwell, Amanda M. Kimbrough, Josiah P. J. King, Vanessa S. Kolb, Sabina Kolodziej, Marton Kovacs, Karolina Krasuska, Sue Kraus, Lacy E. Krueger, Katarzyna Kuchno, Caio Ambrosio Lage, Eleanor V. Langford, Carmel A. Levitan, Tiago Jesse Souza de Lima, Hause Lin, Samuel Lins, Jia E. Loy, Dylan Manfredi, Łukasz Markiewicz, Madhavi Menon, Brett Mercier, Mitchell Metzger, Venus Meyet, Jeremy K. Miller, Andres Montealegre, Don A. Moore, Rafal Muda, Gideon Nave, Austin Lee Nichols, Sarah A. Novak, Christian Nunnally, Ana Orlic, Anna Palinkas, Angelo Panno, Kimberly P. Parks, Ivana Pedovic, Emilian Pekala, Matthew R. Penner, Sebastiaan Pessers, Boban Petrovic, Thomas Pfeiffer, Damian Pienkosz, Emanuele Preti, Danka Puric, Tiago Ramos, Jonathan Ravid, Timothy S. Razza, Katrin Rentzsch, Juliette Richetin, Sean C. Rife, Anna Dalla Rosa, Kaylis Hase Rudy, Janos Salamon, Blair Saunders, Przemyslaw Sawicki, Kathleen Schmidt, Kurt Schuepfer, Thomas Schultze, Stefan Schulz-Hardt, Astrid Schutz, Ani N. Shabazian, Rachel L. Shubella, Adam Siegel, Ruben Silva, Barbara Sioma, Lauren Skorb, Luana Elayne Cunha de Souza, Sara Steegen, L. A. R. Stein, R. Weylin Sternglanz, Darko Stojilovic, Daniel Storage, Gavin Brent Sullivan, Barnabas Szaszi, Peter Szecsi, Orsolya Szoke, Attila Szuts, Manuela Thomae, Natasha D. Tidwell, Carly Tocco, Ann-Kathrin Torka, Francis Tuerlinckx, Wolf Vanpaemel, Leigh Ann Vaughn, Michelangelo Vianello, Domenico Viganola, Maria Vlachou, Ryan J. Walker, Sophia C. Weissgerber, Aaron L. Wichman, Bradford J. Wiggins, Daniel Wolf, Michael J. Wood, David Zealley, Iris Žeželj, Mark Zrubka, and Brian A. Nosek

Published
2020
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2. Many labs 5: registered multisite replication of the tempting-fate effects in risen and gilovich (2008)

Author

Kimberly P. Parks, Janos Salamon, Eleanor V. Langford, Dylan Manfredi, Wolf Vanpaemel, David Zealley, Antonia M. Ciunci, Francis Tuerlinckx, Sara Steegen, Grecia Kessinger, Barnabas Szaszi, Christian Nunnally, Kayla Ashbaugh, Maya B. Mathur, Charles R. Ebersole, Bradford J. Wiggins, Rachel L. Shubella, Sebastiaan Pessers, Filipe Falcão, Michael H. Bernstein, Kaylis Hase Rudy, Diane-Jo Bart-Plange, Lynda A. R. Stein, Anna Palinkas, Tiago Ramos, Peter Szecsi, Marton Kovacs, Rúben Silva, Caio Ambrosio Lage, Rias A. Hilliard, Mark Zrubka, Gideon Nave, Samuel Lincoln Bezerra Lins, Michael C. Frank, Alan Jern, Maria Vlachou, Vanessa S. Kolb, Don A. Moore, Venus Meyet, Balazs Aczel, Danielle J. Kellier, and Faculdade de Psicologia e de Ciências da Educação

Subjects
Open data, Psychology, General Psychology, Replication (computing), Magical thinking, Cognitive psychology
Abstract

Risen and Gilovich (2008) found that subjects believed that “tempting fate” would be punished with ironic bad outcomes (a main effect), and that this effect was magnified when subjects were under cognitive load (an interaction). A previous replication study (Frank & Mathur, 2016) that used an online implementation of the protocol on Amazon Mechanical Turk failed to replicate both the main effect and the interaction. Before this replication was run, the authors of the original study expressed concern that the cognitive-load manipulation may be less effective when implemented online than when implemented in the lab and that subjects recruited online may also respond differently to the specific experimental scenario chosen for the replication. A later, large replication project, Many Labs 2 (Klein et al. 2018), replicated the main effect (though the effect size was smaller than in the original study), but the interaction was not assessed. Attempting to replicate the interaction while addressing the original authors’ concerns regarding the protocol for the first replication study, we developed a new protocol in collaboration with the original authors. We used four university sites ( N = 754) chosen for similarity to the site of the original study to conduct a high-powered, preregistered replication focused primarily on the interaction effect. Results from these sites did not support the interaction or the main effect and were comparable to results obtained at six additional universities that were less similar to the original site. Post hoc analyses did not provide strong evidence for statistical inconsistency between the original study’s estimates and our estimates; that is, the original study’s results would not have been extremely unlikely in the estimated distribution of population effects in our sites. We also collected data from a new Mechanical Turk sample under the first replication study’s protocol, and results were not meaningfully different from those obtained with the new protocol at universities similar to the original site. Secondary analyses failed to support proposed substantive mechanisms for the failure to replicate.

Published
2020

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