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The Arctic regional coupled sea-ice–ocean–atmosphere model (ArcIOAM) has been developed to provide reliable Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal timescales. The description and implementation of ArcIOAM and its preliminary results for the year of 2012 are presented in this paper. In the ArcIOAM configuration, the Community Coupler 2 (C-Coupler2) is used to couple the Arctic sea-ice–oceanic configuration of the MITgcm (Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model) with the Arctic atmospheric configuration of the Polar WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model. A scalability test is performed to investigate the parallelization of the coupled model. As the first step toward reliable Arctic seasonal sea ice prediction, ArcIOAM, implemented with two-way coupling strategy along with one-way coupling strategy, is evaluated with respect to available observational data and reanalysis products for the year of 2012. A stand-alone MITgcm run with prescribed atmospheric forcing is performed for reference. From the comparison, all the experiments simulate reasonable evolution of sea ice and ocean states in the Arctic region over a 1-year simulation period. The two-way coupling has better performance in terms of sea ice extent, concentration, thickness and sea surface temperature (SST), especially in summer. This result indicates that sea-ice–ocean–atmosphere interaction plays a crucial role in controlling Arctic summertime sea ice distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an effort to improve the reliability of Arctic sea-ice predictions, an ensemble-based Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System (ArcIOPS) has been developed to meet operational demands. The system is based on a regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model. A localized error subspace transform ensemble Kalman filter is used to assimilate the weekly merged CryoSat-2 and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity sea-ice thickness data together with the daily Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sea-ice concentration data. The weather forecasts from the Global Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction drive the sea ice–ocean coupled model. The ensemble mean sea-ice forecasts were used to facilitate the Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in summer 2017. The forecasted sea-ice concentration is evaluated against AMSR2 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder sea-ice concentration data. The forecasted sea-ice thickness is compared to the in-situ observations and the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. These comparisons show the promising potential of ArcIOPS for operational Arctic sea-ice forecasts. Nevertheless, the forecast bias in the Beaufort Sea calls for a delicate parameter calibration and a better design of the assimilation system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of assimilating weekly CryoSat‐2 sea ice thickness data together with daily SMOS sea ice thickness and daily SSMIS sea ice concentration data on the sea ice fields of a coupled sea ice–ocean model of the Arctic Ocean is investigated. The sea‐ice model is based on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) and the assimilation is performed by a localized Singular Evolutive Interpolated Kalman (LSEIK) filter coded in the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). A period of three months from 1 November 2011 to 30 January 2012 is selected to assess the skill of the assimilation system in the cold season. Compared to the unassimilated solution and a solution where only sea ice concentration is assimilated, the model–data misfits are substantially reduced in areas of both thick and thin ice. The sea ice thickness estimates agree significantly better with in situ observations in the central Arctic Ocean than the sea ice thickness obtained from assimilating SMOS data alone, while the sea ice concentration shows very small improvements. The sea ice fields obtained by the joint assimilation of SMOS and CryoSat‐2 data also have lower errors in thickness and concentration than those obtained from directly assimilating a statistically merged SMOS and CryoSat‐2 sea ice thickness product. These lower errors suggest that model dynamics play a significant role in data blending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]