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Recent research proposes that sensorimotor difficulties, such as those experienced by many autistic people, may arise from atypicalities in prediction. Accordingly, we examined the relationship between non-clinical autistic-like traits and sensorimotor prediction in the material-weight illusion, where prior expectations derived from material cues typically bias one’s perception and action. Specifically, prediction-related tendencies in perception of weight, gaze patterns, and lifting actions were probed using a combination of self-report, eye-tracking, motion-capture, and force-based measures. No prediction-related associations between autistic-like traits and sensorimotor control emerged for any of these variables. Follow-up analyses, however, revealed that greater autistic-like traits were correlated with reduced adaptation of gaze with changes in environmental uncertainty. These findings challenge proposals of gross predictive atypicalities in autistic people, but suggest that the dynamic integration of prior information and environmental statistics may be related to autistic-like traits. Further research into this relationship is warranted in autistic populations, to assist the development of future movement-based coaching methods. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00221-019-05586-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.