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Probabilistic estimation of cardiac electrophysiological model parameters serves an important step toward model personalization and uncertain quantification. The expensive computation associated with these model simulations, however, makes direct Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of the posterior probability density function (pdf) of model parameters computationally intensive. Approximated posterior pdfs resulting from replacing the simulation model with a computationally efficient surrogate, on the other hand, have seen limited accuracy. In this study, we present a Bayesian active learning method to directly approximate the posterior pdf function of cardiac model parameters, in which we intelligently select training points to query the simulation model in order to learn the posterior pdf using a small number of samples. We integrate a generative model into Bayesian active learning to allow approximating posterior pdf of high-dimensional model parameters at the resolution of the cardiac mesh. We further introduce new acquisition functions to focus the selection of training points on better approximating the shape rather than the modes of the posterior pdf of interest. We evaluated the presented method in estimating tissue excitability in a 3D cardiac electrophysiological model in a range of synthetic and real-data experiments. We demonstrated its improved accuracy in approximating the posterior pdf compared to Bayesian active learning using regular acquisition functions, and substantially reduced computational cost in comparison to existing standard or accelerated MCMC sampling.

Model personalization requires the estimation of patient-specific tissue properties in the form of model parameters from indirect and sparse measurement data. Moreover, a low-dimensional representation of the parameter space is needed, which often has a limited ability to reveal the underlying tissue heterogeneity. As a result, significant uncertainty can be associated with the estimated values of the model parameters which, if left unquantified, will lead to unknown variability in model outputs that will hinder their reliable clinical adoption. Probabilistic estimation of model parameters, however, remains an unresolved challenge. Direct Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of the posterior distribution function (pdf) of the parameters is infeasible because it involves repeated evaluations of the computationally expensive simulation model. To accelerate this inference, one popular approach is to construct a computationally efficient surrogate and sample from this approximation. However, by sampling from an approximation, efficiency is gained at the expense of sampling accuracy. In this paper, we address this issue by integrating surrogate modeling of the posterior pdf into accelerating the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampling of the exact posterior pdf. It is achieved by two main components: (1) construction of a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate of the exact posterior pdf by actively selecting training points that allow for a good global approximation accuracy with a focus on the regions of high posterior probability; and (2) use of the GP surrogate to improve the proposal distribution in MH sampling, in order to improve the acceptance rate. The presented framework is evaluated in its estimation of the local tissue excitability of a cardiac electrophysiological model in both synthetic data experiments and real data experiments. In addition, the obtained posterior distributions of model parameters are interpreted in relation to the factors contributing to parameter uncertainty, including different low-dimensional representations of the parameter space, parameter non-identifiability, and parameter correlations.

To obtain a patient-specific cardiac electrophysiological (EP) model, it is important to estimate the three-dimensionally distributed tissue properties of the myocardium. Ideally, the tissue property should be estimated at the resolution of the cardiac mesh. However, such high dimensional estimation face major challenges in identifiability and computation. Most existing works reduce this dimension by partitioning the cardiac mesh into a pre-defined set of segments. The resulting low-resolution solutions have a limited ability to represent the underlying heterogeneous tissue properties of varying sizes, locations and distributions. In this paper, we present a novel framework that, going beyond a uniform low-resolution approach, is able to obtain a higher resolution estimation of tissue properties represented by spatially non-uniform resolution. This is achieved by two central elements: 1) a multi-scale coarse-to-fine optimization that facilitates higher resolution optimization using the lower resolution solution, and 2) a spatially adaptive decision criterion that retains lower resolution in homogeneous tissue regions and allows higher resolution in heterogeneous tissue regions. The presented framework is evaluated in estimating the local tissue excitability properties of a cardiac EP model on both synthetic and real data experiments. Its performance is compared with optimization using pre-defined segments. Results demonstrate the feasibility of the presented framework to estimate local parameters and to reveal heterogeneous tissue properties at a higher resolution without using a high number of unknowns.

Estimation of patient-specific model parameters is important for personalized modeling, although sparse and noisy clinical data can introduce significant uncertainty in the estimated parameter values. This importance source of uncertainty, if left unquantified, will lead to unknown variability in model outputs that hinder their reliable adoptions. Probabilistic estimation model parameters, however, remains an unresolved challenge because standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling requires repeated model simulations that are computationally infeasible. A common solution is to replace the simulation model with a computationally-efficient surrogate for a faster sampling. However, by sampling from an approximation of the exact posterior probability density function (pdf) of the parameters, the efficiency is gained at the expense of sampling accuracy. In this paper, we address this issue by integrating surrogate modeling into Metropolis Hasting (MH) sampling of the exact posterior pdfs to improve its acceptance rate. It is done by first quickly constructing a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate of the exact posterior pdfs using deterministic optimization. This efficient surrogate is then used to modify commonly-used proposal distributions in MH sampling such that only proposals accepted by the surrogate will be tested by the exact posterior pdf for acceptance/rejection, reducing unnecessary model simulations at unlikely candidates. Synthetic and real-data experiments using the presented method show a significant gain in computational efficiency without compromising the accuracy. In addition, insights into the non-identifiability and heterogeneity of tissue properties can be gained from the obtained posterior distributions.

The estimation of local parameter values for a 3D cardiac model is important for revealing abnormal tissues with altered material properties and for building patient-specific models. Existing works in local parameter estimation typically represent the heart with a small number of pre-defined segments to reduce the dimension of unknowns. Such low-resolution approaches have limited ability to estimate tissues with varying sizes, locations, and distributions. We present a novel optimization framework to achieve a higher-resolution parameter estimation without using a high number of unknowns. It has two central elements: (1) a multi-scale coarse-to-fine optimization that uses low-resolution solutions to facilitate the higher-resolution optimization; and (2) a spatially-adaptive scheme that dedicates higher resolution to regions of heterogeneous tissue properties whereas retaining low resolution in homogeneous regions. Synthetic and real-data experiments demonstrate the ability of the presented framework to improve the accuracy of local parameter estimation in comparison to optimization based on fixed-segment models.