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Background and Objectives: The aim of this study is to compare the performance of six clinical physiological-based scores, including the pre-endoscopy Rockall score, shock index (SI), age shock index (age SI), Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), in predicting in-hospital mortality in elderly and very elderly patients in the emergency department (ED) with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). Materials and Methods: Patients older than 65 years who visited the ED with a clinical diagnosis of AUGIB were enrolled prospectively from July 2016 to July 2021. The six scores were calculated and compared with in-hospital mortality. Results: A total of 336 patients were recruited, of whom 40 died. There is a significant difference between the patients in the mortality group and survival group in terms of the six scoring systems. MEWS had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value (0.82). A subgroup analysis was performed for a total of 180 very elderly patients (i.e., older than 75 years), of whom 27 died. MEWS also had the best predictive performance in this subgroup (AUC, 0.82). Conclusions: This simple, rapid, and obtainable-by-the-bed parameter could assist emergency physicians in risk stratification and decision making for this vulnerable group.

Background and Study Aims: Azotaemia is commonly identified among patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) due to absorption of blood products in the small bowel. Previous studies have found blood urea nitrogen-to-creatinine (BUN/Cr) ratio to be significantly elevated among patients UGIB bleeding compared to patients with lower GI bleeding. However, no studies have explored the relationship between BUN/Cr ratio and mortality. This study is aimed at investigating how BUN/Cr ratio relates to outcomes for UGIB patients., Patients and Methods: This study was conducted prospectively at a university-affiliated teaching hospital with approximate 70,000 annual emergency department (ED) visits. Data from a total of 258 adult UGIB patients were collected between March 1, 2011 and March 1, 2012. Cox regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for 30-day mortality., Results: Malignancy and Rockall score were associated with increased risk of 30-day mortality (Unadjusted hazard ratio (HR): 3.87, 95% CI: 1.59-9.41, p = 0.0029; HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.02-1.71, p = 0.0476, respectively). However, BUN/Cr > 30 was associated with lower risk of 30-day mortality (HR: 0.32, 95% CI: 0.11-0.97, p = 0.0441)., Conclusions: A BUN/Cr ratio of >30 was found to be an independent risk factor for mortality and may be useful for pre-endoscopic assessment. Development of future risk scoring systems might warrant consideration of including BUN/Cr ratio as a parameter for estimating risk., (Copyright © 2018 Pan-Arab Association of Gastroenterology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: The benefits of transfusion for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) have not been well established; however, previous studies suggest that transfusion is associated with adverse outcomes. We performed an observational study using a 10-year database to analyze the association between red blood cell (RBC) transfusion and outcomes in patients with UGIB in the emergency department (ED)., Method and Findings: All adult patients with UGIB were identified through diagnostic codes. Hospital mortality was the primary outcome; further bleeding was the secondary outcome. Logistic regression, propensity analyses, and conditional logistic regression were performed to determine factors associated with outcomes. Of 59,188 enrolled patients, 31.6% (n = 18,705) received RBC transfusions within 24 h following presentation to the ED. Hospital mortality was noted in 3.9 and 10.6% of the patients in the non-RBC transfusion and RBC transfusion groups, respectively (P < 0.001). RBC transfusion was associated with increased mortality risk (unadjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.75-3.16; P < 0.001) among all patients and in the propensity-matched cohort (unadjusted OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.39-1.72; P < 0.001). Further bleeding was noted in 5.6 and 33.8% of the patients in the non-RBC transfusion and RBC transfusion groups, respectively (P < 0.001). RBC transfusion was associated with increased risk of further bleeding (unadjusted OR 8.60, 95% CI 8.16-9.06; P < 0.001) among all patients and in the propensity-matched cohort (unadjusted OR 2.58, 95% CI 2.37-2.79; P < 0.001)., Conclusion: RBC transfusion was significantly associated with increased rates of hospital mortality and further bleeding in patients with UGIB. Although our findings have strengths, these results are not generalizable to all patients presenting with UGIB, especially patients presenting with exsanguinating bleeding. Additional prospective trials to guide optimal transfusion strategies in UGIB patients are needed.

Background: Several risk score systems are designed for triage patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Blatchford score, which relies on only clinical and laboratory data, is used to identify patients with acute UGIB who need clinical intervention (before endoscopy). Clinical Rockall score, which relies on only clinical variables, is used to identify patients with acute UGIB who have adverse outcome, such as death or recurrent bleeding. Complete Rockall score, which relies on clinical and endoscopic variables, is also used to identify patients with acute UGIB who died or have recurrent bleeding. In our study, we define patients who need clinical intervention (ie, blood transfusion, endoscopic or surgical management for bleeding control) as high-risk patients. Our study aims to compare Blatchford score with clinical Rockall score and complete Rockall score in their utilities in identifying high-risk cases in patients with acute nonvariceal UGIB., Methods: International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes for admission diagnosis were used to recognize a cohort of patients (N = 354) with acute UGIB admitted to a tertiary care, university-affiliated hospital. Medical record data were abstracted by 1 research assistant blinded to the study purpose. Blatchford and Rockall scores were calculated for each enrolled patient. High risk was defined as a Blatchford score of greater than 0, a clinical Rockall score of greater than 0, and a complete Rockall score of greater than 2. Patients were defined as needing clinical intervention if they had a blood transfusion or any operative or endoscopic intervention to control their bleeding. Such patients were defined as high-risk patients., Results: The Blatchford score identified 326 (92.1%) of the 354 patients as those with high risk for clinical intervention (ie, blood transfusion, endoscopic or surgical management for bleeding control). The clinical Rockall score identified 289 (81.6%) of the 354 patients as high-risk, and the complete Rockall score identified 248 (70.1%) of the 354 patients as high-risk. The yield of identifying high-risk cases with the Blatchford score was significantly greater than with the clinical Rockall score (P < .0001) or with the complete Rockall score (P < .0001). In our total 354 patients, 246 (69.5%) patients were categorized as those with high risk for clinical intervention (ie, blood transfusion, endoscopic or surgical management for bleeding control, as aforementioned) in our study. The Blatchford score identified 245 (99.6%) of 246 patients as high-risk. Only 1 patient who met the study definition of needing clinical intervention was not identified via Blatchford score. This patient did not have recurrent bleeding nor die and did not receive blood transfusion. The clinical Rockall score identified 222 (90.2%) of 246 patients as high-risk. Twenty-four patients who met the study definition of needing clinical intervention were not recognized via clinical Rockall score. Of these patients, 0 died, 7 developed recurrent bleeding, and 6 needed blood transfusion. The complete Rockall score identified 224 (91.1%) of 246 patients as high-risk. Twenty-two patients who met the study definition of needing clinical intervention were not recognized via complete Rockall score. Of these patients, 2 died, 3 developed recurrent bleeding, and 20 needed blood transfusion., Conclusions: The Blatchford score, which is based on clinical and laboratory variables, may be a useful risk stratification tool in detecting which patients need clinical intervention in patients with acute nonvariceal UGIB. It does not need urgent endoscopy for scoring and has higher sensitivity than the clinical Rockall score and the complete Rockall score in identifying high-risk patients.