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Analyzing the causes of accidents, excavating accident paths, and applying accident prevention are important tasks in safety management. Focusing on coal and gas outburst accidents, this study examined the primary accident path and conducted applied research on the reasoning of the accident case. First, combined with the obtained accident causes, a coupling analysis of the causes of coal and gas outburst accidents was conducted. Second, using the method of data mining coupled with Apriori algorithm, the coupling relationship between each cause module of the coal and gas outburst accident was obtained, and consequently, a path map of the coal and gas outburst accident was drawn. Third, a Bayesian network model for the causes of coal and gas outburst accidents was established based on the accident path map and the probability of occurrence of each cause. Finally, considering the safety concept element (SC1) as an example, the Bayesian network model was used to conduct a sensitivity analysis of accident causes. Thereafter, considering the coal and gas outburst accident of the Sanjia Coal Mine in Guizhou Province as an example, probabilistic reasoning research on the cause of the accident was conducted. The application results showed that (1) under normal conditions, there are approximately 797,280 accident paths for coal and gas outbursts. Following data mining, 188 main accident paths were found. (2) Sensitivity analysis determined 19 factors that were sensitive to safety concept elements (SC1), of which the three most sensitive factors were (i) resource management system procedures (SM7), (ii) safety policy (SM1), and (iii) safety training system procedure (SM8). 13 paths exhibited a sensitivity ≥0.5%, of which 7 exhibited strong sensitivity. (3) The absolute accuracy rate of accident cause reasoning in the Sanjia Coal Mine in Guizhou Province was 71.43%, while the relative accuracy rate was close to 100%. Thus, it was concluded that: (1) the accident path mining method proposed in this paper is feasible for main accident path mining. (2) The Bayesian network model for the causes of coal and gas outburst accidents established in this study can be practically applied for the sensitivity analysis of accident causes and exhibits high reliability in the probabilistic reasoning of accident causes. The results of this study is expected to aid in the prevention of coal and gas outburst accidents, and provide reference and help for the path mining of other accident causes and the probabilistic reasoning of accident causes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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• The whole safety production accidents of coal mines in Guizhou Province were analyzed. • The time–space dynamic evolution of coal and gas outburst accidents were proposed. • Coal and gas outburst accidents, influence factors and suggestions in Guizhou Province were studied. The safety situation of coal mines in Guizhou has been improving for many years, but coal and gas outburst accidents continue to occur. This paper analyzes the safety situation of coal mines in Guizhou by collecting data on accidents and disasters in the last decade: 2011–2020. The distribution characteristics, time–space dynamic evolution, and factors influencing coal and gas outburst disasters were studied. Countermeasures and safety management suggestions for disaster prevention and control were proposed. Our analysis shows that the primary disasters occurring in coal mines in Guizhou province are gas, roof, and water disasters, which are mainly distributed in the western and northern regions, as well as closely related to the complex geological conditions in the region. Coal and gas outburst is the most serious disaster threatening the safety of coal mines in Guizhou province in the last decade. The occurrence and development of gas outburst accidents presents three stages. The coal and gas outburst disasters mostly occurred in the driving face in the last decade, while their distribution showed obvious regional characteristics. In particular, Liupanshui, Bijie, and southwest Guizhou have a greater risk of coal and gas outbursts. Thus, it is necessary to focus on and formulate strict and effective outburst prevention measures when performing mining operations. Finally, according to hazard analysis, objective factors and management factors underlying coal mine disasters in Guizhou, specific countermeasures, and safety management policy suggestions of government and enterprises are provided. This research has certain significance for the safety supervision by the government and the staff engaged in the prevention and control of coal and gas outbursts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thin coal seams in mines usually lack gas data. Thus, preventing and controlling gas outbursts of thin coal seams are difficult. In this study, a coal structure index, which is used to express the damage degree of coal, was estimated by logging curve. In accordance with the contour line of the floor of the coal seam, structural curvature was calculated to express the complexity of the coal seam structure quantitatively. Subsequently, relationships among the burial depth, thickness, coal structure index, structural curvature were analyzed on the basis of the gas pressure of coal seam. The gas pressure values of the coal seams of Nos. 22, 24, and 27 in the study area were predicted by multiple linear regression (MLR) and were then verified and analyzed. The deviation rate of the MLR method was 6.5%–19.7%, with an average of 13.0%. The average deviation rate between the predicted value and the measured value was 11.6%, except for the measuring point of No. 2, which had a large deviation. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the aforementioned method is acceptable and has practical value in the prediction of gas pressure in thin coal seams without measured data. The results in the gas pressure prediction provide a basis for evaluating the risk of gas outbursts in thin coal seams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal seams in China are mainly characterizsed by low permeability and high risk of coal and gas outburst. Therefore, the elimination of coal and gas outburst risk of low‐permeability coal seam remains a hard challenge. Taking Shihuatian Coal Mine in Guizhou Province, China as an example, boreholes were slotted using high‐pressure water jet to relieve the gas pressure inside the coal seam and increase the permeability of coal mass, which thus improves the gas drainage efficiency and eliminate the outburst risk. The results show that the gas drainage efficiency of the slotted boreholes significantly increases. Compared with the conventional boreholes, the average gas concentration and flow velocity improved by 1.6 and 7.5 times, respectively. Moreover, the prediction index of outburst risk is less than the critical value after high‐pressure water jet slotting, which indicate that the coal and gas outburst risk has been effectively eliminated. The measured values of gas desorption index of drilling cuttings are all lower than the critical value after the application of the high‐pressure water jet slotting technology. The research achievements could provide a practical reference for the effective gas disaster prevention and control in low‐permeability coal seams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]