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In this paper, we generalize the Pearl and Neyman-Rubin methodologies in causal inference by introducing a generalized approach that incorporates fuzzy logic. Indeed, we introduce a fuzzy causal inference approach that consider both the vagueness and imprecision inherent in data, as well as the subjective human perspective characterized by fuzzy terms such as 'high', 'medium', and 'low'. To do so, we introduce two fuzzy causal effect formulas: the Fuzzy Average Treatment Effect (FATE) and the Generalized Fuzzy Average Treatment Effect (GFATE), together with their normalized versions: NFATE and NGFATE. When dealing with a binary treatment variable, our fuzzy causal effect formulas coincide with classical Average Treatment Effect (ATE) formula, that is a well-established and popular metric in causal inference. In FATE, all values of the treatment variable are considered equally important. In contrast, GFATE takes into account the rarity and frequency of these values. We show that for linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs), the normalized versions of our formulas, NFATE and NGFATE, are equivalent to ATE. Further, we provide identifiability criteria for these formulas and show their stability with respect to minor variations in the fuzzy subsets and the probability distributions involved. This ensures the robustness of our approach in handling small perturbations in the data. Finally, we provide several experimental examples to empirically validate and demonstrate the practical application of our proposed fuzzy causal inference methods., Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures, 4 tables

Let $X$ and $Z$ be random vectors, and $Y=g(X,Z)$. In this paper, on the one hand, for the case that $X$ and $Z$ are continuous, by using the ideas from the total variation and the flux of $g$, we develop a point of view in causal inference capable of dealing with a broad domain of causal problems. Indeed, we focus on a function, called Probabilistic Easy Variational Causal Effect (PEACE), which can measure the direct causal effect of $X$ on $Y$ with respect to continuously and interventionally changing the values of $X$ while keeping the value of $Z$ constant. PEACE is a function of $d\ge 0$, which is a degree managing the strengths of probability density values $f(x|z)$. On the other hand, we generalize the above idea for the discrete case and show its compatibility with the continuous case. Further, we investigate some properties of PEACE using measure theoretical concepts. Furthermore, we provide some identifiability criteria and several examples showing the generic capability of PEACE. We note that PEACE can deal with the causal problems for which micro-level or just macro-level changes in the value of the input variables are important. Finally, PEACE is stable under small changes in $\partial g_{in}/\partial x$ and the joint distribution of $X$ and $Z$, where $g_{in}$ is obtained from $g$ by removing all functional relationships defining $X$ and $Z$., Comment: 45 pages, 9 Figures

In this paper, we introduce a new causal methodology that accounts for the rarity and frequency of events in observational studies based on their relevance to the underlying problem. Specifically, we propose a direct causal effect metric called the Probabilistic Variational Causal Effect (PACE) and its variations adhering to certain postulates applicable to both non-binary and binary treatments. The PACE metric is derived by integrating the concept of total variation -- representing the purely causal component -- with interventions on the treatment value, combined with the probabilities of hypothetical transitioning between treatment levels. PACE features a parameter d, where lower values of d correspond to scenarios emphasizing rare treatment values, while higher values of d focus on situations where the causal impact of more frequent treatment levels is more relevant. Thus, instead of a single causal effect value, we provide a causal effect function of the degree d. Additionally, we introduce positive and negative PACE to measure the respective positive and negative causal changes in the outcome as exposure values shift. We also consider normalized versions of PACE, referred to as MEAN PACE. Furthermore, we provide an identifiability criterion for PACE to handle counterfactual challenges in observational studies, and we define several generalizations of our methodology. Lastly, we compare our framework with other well-known causal frameworks through the analysis of various examples., Comment: 35 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables

In this paper, we introduce a fundamental framework to create a bridge between Probability Theory and Fuzzy Logic. Indeed, our theory formulates a random experiment of selecting crisp elements with the criterion of having a certain fuzzy attribute. To do so, we associate some specific crisp random variables to the random experiment. Then, several formulas are presented, which make it easier to compute different conditional probabilities and expected values of these random variables. Also, we provide measure theoretical basis for our probabilistic fuzzy logic framework. Note that in our theory, the probability density functions of continuous distributions which come from the aforementioned random variables include the Dirac delta function as a term. Further, we introduce an application of our theory in Causal Inference., Comment: 60 pages, 7 figures, 1 table, 2 links to Github