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Prophet inequalities are a central object of study in optimal stopping theory. In the iid model, a gambler sees values in an online fashion, sampled independently from a given distribution. Upon observing each value, the gambler either accepts it as a reward or irrevocably rejects it and proceeds to observe the next value. The goal of the gambler, who cannot see the future, is maximising the expected value of the reward while competing against the expectation of a prophet (the offline maximum). In other words, one seeks to maximise the gambler-to-prophet ratio of the expectations. This model has been studied with infinite, finite and unknown number of values. When the gambler faces a random number of values, the model is said to have random horizon. We consider the model in which the gambler is given a priori knowledge of the horizon's distribution. Alijani et al. (2020) designed a single-threshold algorithms achieving a ratio of $1/2$ when the random horizon has an increasing hazard rate and is independent of the values. We prove that with a single-threshold, a ratio of $1/2$ is actually achievable for several larger classes of horizon distributions, with the largest being known as the $\mathcal{G}$ class in reliability theory. Moreover, we extend this result to its dual, the $\overline{\mathcal{G}}$ class (which includes the decreasing hazard rate class), and to low-variance horizons. Finally, we construct the first example of a family of horizons, for which multiple thresholds are necessary to achieve a nonzero ratio. We establish that the Secretary Problem optimal stopping rule provides one such algorithm, paving the way towards the study of the model beyond single-threshold algorithms., Comment: 54 pages, 2 figures

Prophet inequalities are a central object of study in optimal stopping theory. A gambler is sent values in an online fashion, sampled from an instance of independent distributions, in an adversarial, random or selected order, depending on the model. When observing each value, the gambler either accepts it as a reward or irrevocably rejects it and proceeds to observe the next value. The goal of the gambler, who cannot see the future, is maximising the expected value of the reward while competing against the expectation of a prophet (the offline maximum). In other words, one seeks to maximise the gambler-to-prophet ratio of the expectations. The model, in which the gambler selects the arrival order first, and then observes the values, is known as Order Selection. In this model a ratio of $0.7251$ is attainable for any instance. Recently, this has been improved up to $0.7258$ by Bubna and Chiplunkar (2023). If the gambler chooses the arrival order (uniformly) at random, we obtain the Random Order model. The worst case ratio over all possible instances has been extensively studied for at least $40$ years. In a computer-assisted proof, Bubna and Chiplunkar (2023) also showed that this ratio is at most $0.7254$ for the Random Order model, thus establishing for the first time that carefully choosing the order, instead of simply taking it at random, benefits the gambler. We give an alternative, non-simulation-assisted proof of this fact, by showing mathematically that in the Random Order model, no algorithm can achieve a ratio larger than $0.7235$. This sets a new state-of-the-art hardness for this model, and establishes more formally that there is a real benefit in choosing the order., Comment: 38 pages, 2 figures

We consider two simple asynchronous opinion dynamics on arbitrary graphs where every node $u$ has an initial value $\xi_u(0)$. In the first process, the NodeModel, at each time step $t\ge 0$, a random node $u$ and a random sample of $k$ of its neighbours $v_1,v_2,\cdots,v_k$ are selected. Then, $u$ updates its current value $\xi_u(t)$ to $\xi_u(t+1) = \alpha \xi_u(t) + \frac{(1-\alpha)}{k} \sum_{i=1}^k \xi_{v_i}(t)$, where $\alpha \in (0,1)$ and $k\ge 1$ are parameters of the process. In the second process, the EdgeModel, at each step a random pair of adjacent nodes $(u,v)$ is selected, and then node $u$ updates its value equivalently to the NodeModel with $k=1$ and $v$ as the selected neighbour. For both processes, the values of all nodes converge to $F$, a random variable depending on the random choices made in each step. For the NodeModel and regular graphs, and for the EdgeModel and arbitrary graphs, the expectation of $F$ is the average of the initial values $\frac{1}{n}\sum_{u\in V} \xi_u(0)$. For the NodeModel and non-regular graphs, the expectation of $F$ is the degree-weighted average of the initial values. Our results are two-fold. We consider the concentration of $F$ and show tight bounds on the variance of $F$ for regular graphs. We show that, when the initial values do not depend on the number of nodes, then the variance is negligible, hence the nodes are able to estimate the initial average of the node values. Interestingly, this variance does not depend on the graph structure. For the proof we introduce a duality between our processes and a process of two correlated random walks. We also analyse the convergence time for both models and for arbitrary graphs, showing bounds on the time $T_\varepsilon$ required to make all node values `$\varepsilon$-close' to each other. Our bounds are asymptotically tight under assumptions on the distribution of the initial values., Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures

We study the problem of randomized information dissemination in networks. We compare the now standard PUSH-PULL protocol, with agent-based alternatives where information is disseminated by a collection of agents performing independent random walks. In the VISIT-EXCHANGE protocol, both nodes and agents store information, and each time an agent visits a node, the two exchange all the information they have. In the MEET-EXCHANGE protocol, only the agents store information, and exchange their information with each agent they meet. We consider the broadcast time of a single piece of information in an $n$-node graph for the above three protocols, assuming a linear number of agents that start from the stationary distribution. We observe that there are graphs on which the agent-based protocols are significantly faster than PUSH-PULL, and graphs where the converse is true. We attribute the good performance of agent-based algorithms to their inherently fair bandwidth utilization, and conclude that, in certain settings, agent-based information dissemination, separately or in combination with PUSH-PULL, can significantly improve the broadcast time. The graphs considered above are highly non-regular. Our main technical result is that on any regular graph of at least logarithmic degree, PUSH-PULL and VISIT-EXCHANGE have the same asymptotic broadcast time. The proof uses a novel coupling argument which relates the random choices of vertices in PUSH-PULL with the random walks in VISIT-EXCHANGE. Further, we show that the broadcast time of MEET-EXCHANGE is asymptotically at least as large as the other two's on all regular graphs, and strictly larger on some regular graphs. As far as we know, this is the first systematic and thorough comparison of the running times of these very natural information dissemination protocols., Comment: Full version of an article that appeared at the 2019 ACM Symposium on Principles of Distributed Computing; 33 pages; 1 figure