1. Developing intuitionistic fuzzy seasonality regression with particle swarm optimization for air pollution forecasting
- Author
-
Chung-Han Ho, Kuo-Chen Hung, Kuo-Ping Lin, and Ping-Teng Chang
- Subjects
Mathematical optimization ,021103 operations research ,Computer science ,Strategy and Management ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Particle swarm optimization ,02 engineering and technology ,Seasonality ,medicine.disease ,Fuzzy logic ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,Regression ,Computer Science Applications ,Management Information Systems ,Deep belief network ,Industrial relations ,Linear regression ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,medicine ,020201 artificial intelligence & image processing ,Autoregressive integrated moving average ,Time series - Abstract
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a novel intuitionistic fuzzy seasonality regression (IFSR) with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms to accurately forecast air pollutions, which are typical seasonal time series data. Seasonal time series prediction is a critical topic, and some time series data contain uncertain or unpredictable factors. To handle such seasonal factors and uncertain forecasting seasonal time series data, the proposed IFSR with the PSO method effectively extends the intuitionistic fuzzy linear regression (IFLR).Design/methodology/approachThe prediction model sets up IFLR with spreads unrestricted so as to correctly approach the trend of seasonal time series data when the decomposition method is used. PSO algorithms were simultaneously employed to select the parameters of the IFSR model. In this study, IFSR with the PSO method was first compared with fuzzy seasonality regression, providing evidence that the concept of the intuitionistic fuzzy set can improve performance in forecasting the daily concentration of carbon monoxide (CO). Furthermore, the risk management system also implemented is based on the forecasting results for decision-maker.FindingsSeasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and deep belief network were then employed as comparative models for forecasting the daily concentration of CO. The empirical results of the proposed IFSR with PSO model revealed improved performance regarding forecasting accuracy, compared with the other methods.Originality/valueThis study presents IFSR with PSO to accurately forecast air pollutions. The proposed IFSR with PSO model can efficiently provide credible values of prediction for seasonal time series data in uncertain environments.
- Published
- 2019