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Arctic sea ice, especially the multiyear ice (MYI), is decreasing rapidly, partly due to melting triggered by global warming, in turn partly due to the possible acceleration of ice export from the Arctic Ocean to southern latitudes through identifiable gates. In this study, MYI and total sea ice areal flux through six Arctic gateways over the winters (October–April) of 2002–2021 were estimated using daily sea ice motion and MYI/total sea ice concentration data. Inconsistencies caused by different data sources were considered for the estimate of MYI flux. Results showed that, there is a slight declining trend in the Arctic MYI areal flux over the past two decades, which is attributable to the decrease in MYI concentration. Overall speaking, MYI flux through Fram Strait accounts for ~87% of the Arctic MYI outflow, with an average of ~325.92 × 103 km2 for the winters of 2002–2021. The monthly MYI areal flux through Fram Strait is characterized with a peak in March (~55.56 × 103 km2) and a trough in April (~40.97 × 103 km2), with a major contribution from MYI concentration. The connections between sea ice outflow and large-scale atmospheric circulations such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Dipole Anomaly (DA) were investigated. High correlation coefficients (CCs) were found in winter months such as January and February. While AO and NAO (especially NAO) exhibited generally weak correlations with the MYI/total sea ice flux, DA presented strong correlations with the areal flux, especially for MYI (CC up to 0.90 in January). However, the atmospheric circulation patterns are sometimes not fully characterized by the specific indices, which could have different effects on sea ice flux and its correlation with the atmospheric indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Revealing the changes in the Fram Strait (FS) multiyear ice (MYI) export is crucial due to their climate relevance in the context of the loss rate of MYI being faster than that of the total ice in the Arctic. Here, we estimated winter (October–April) MYI area export through the FS over the last 2 decades by using updated MYI concentration data retrieved from active and passive microwave satellite observations. We divided the period into two regimes relative to the ice index: D1 (2002/03–2010/11) and D2 (2012/13–2019/20). The observed variations of winter MYI exports D2 were compared with those of the previous decade D1. The results show that the MYI area exports display strong interannual variability. A significant decrease in MYI export for the periods between D1 and D2 is noted. On average, the wintertime MYI area exports declined sharply by 22% from 3.82 × 105 km2 in D1 to 3.00 × 105 km2 in D2. In addition, the percentage of MYI in the total sea ice outflow through the FS (PCM) also decreased distinctly from 72% in D1 to 59% in D2. Statistics show that weekly sea ice drift across the strait can explain 76% of the MYI area export variability. Furthermore, the dominant atmospheric drivers contributing to the decline in MYI area export during D2 were examined. In the last decade (D2), the strengthened low pressure in the North Atlantic sector, combined with an eastward shift in the axis of dipole anomaly (DA), resulted in reduced MYI advection from the Beaufort Sea and Siberian Coast toward the FS. Moreover, weakened cyclonic activity south of the FS also contributed to the reduction in MYI export during D2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By combing ice motion and concentration fields, we obtain the estimates of ice area flux passing the Fram Strait over a 25-year period (1988–2012). Mean monthly area flux exhibits a prominent cycle with the peak in March \rm(78 \times 10^3\,\textkm^2\text/month) and the trough in August \rm(5 \times 10^3\,\textkm^2/\textmonth). Mean net annual ice area flux \rm(644.1 \times 10^3\,\textkm^2\,\textkm^2\rm) is primarily/slightly attributable to winter (October–May)/summer (June–September) outflow of \rm598.7\times 10^3\,\textkm^2 \rm(or\; 93.0\%)/ 45.4 \times 10^3\,\textkm^2 (\rmor 7\%) . However, these quantities need to be considered with great prudence since comparisons with preceding studies indicate distinct difference may exist between calculated Fram Strait sea ice outflow based on varied ice motion datasets. In particular, major bias emerged during winter rather than summer. Trends are also affected due to this bias. Despite the clear disparity in magnitude, we found a good agreement with preceding estimates in terms of temporal variability. The linkage between ice area flux via the Fram Strait and various atmospheric circulation indices, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a west-east dipole anomaly pattern (DA), as well as a seesaw structure between Beaufort and Barents Sea (BBO), was examined. Results show that atmospheric circulation patterns linked to the DA and BBO possess a relatively stronger influence on Fram Strait ice export over the 25-year period. By contrast, the AO- and NAO-related atmospheric circulation pattern exhibit weaker connections with ice outflow through the strait. In addition, correlation analysis further justify the robust connection with a cross-strait surface level pressure gradient index. Depending on months, it is suggested that a manifold of aforementioned atmospheric indices may jointly or alone impose a significant influence on sea ice export through the Fram Strait. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]