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Secondary forest regrowth shapes community succession and biogeochemistry for decades, including in the Upper Great Lakes region. Vegetation models encapsulate our understanding of forest function, and whether models can reproduce multi-decadal succession patterns is an indication of our ability to predict forest responses to future change. We test the ability of a vegetation model to simulate C cycling and community composition during 100 years of forest regrowth following stand-replacing disturbance, asking (a) Which processes and parameters are most important to accurately model Upper Midwest forest succession? (b) What is the relative importance of model structure versus parameter values to these predictions? We ran ensembles of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 with different representations of processes important to competition for light. We compared the magnitude of structural and parameter uncertainty and assessed which sub-model-parameter combinations best reproduced observed C fluxes and community composition. On average, our simulations underestimated observed net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) after 100 years and predicted complete dominance by a single plant functional type (PFT). Out of 4,000 simulations, only nine fell within the observed range of both NPP and LAI, but these predicted unrealistically complete dominance by either early hardwood or pine PFTs. A different set of seven simulations were ecologically plausible but under-predicted observed NPP and LAI. Parameter uncertainty was large; NPP and LAI ranged from ~0% to >200% of their mean value, and any PFT could become dominant. The two parameters that contributed most to uncertainty in predicted NPP were plant-soil water conductance and growth respiration, both unobservable empirical coefficients. We conclude that (a) parameter uncertainty is more important than structural uncertainty, at least for ED-2.2 in Upper Midwest forests and (b) simulating both productivity and plant community composition accurately without physically unrealistic parameters remains challenging for demographic vegetation models., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Structure-function relationships are central to many ecological paradigms. Chief among these is the linkage of net primary production (NPP) with species diversity and canopy structure. Using the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) as a subcontinental-scale research platform, we examined how temperate-forest NPP relates to several measures of site-level canopy structure and tree species diversity. Novel multidimensional canopy traits describing structural complexity, most notably canopy rugosity, were more strongly related to site NPP than were species diversity measures and other commonly characterized canopy structural features. The amount of variation in site-level NPP explained by canopy rugosity alone was 83%, which was substantially greater than that explained individually by vegetation area index (31%) or Shannon's index of species diversity (30%). Forests that were more structurally complex, had higher vegetation-area indices, or were more diverse absorbed more light and used light more efficiently to power biomass production, but these relationships were most strongly tied to structural complexity. Implications for ecosystem modeling and management are wide ranging, suggesting structural complexity traits are broad, mechanistically robust indicators of NPP that, in application, could improve the prediction and management of temperate forest carbon sequestration., (© 2019 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitation (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought - a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Contents Summary 1188 I. Introduction 1188 II. Forest aging and carbon storage 1189 III. Successional trends of NEP in northern deciduous forests 1190 IV. Mechanisms sustaining NEP in aging deciduous forests 1191 Acknowledgements 1192 References 1192 SUMMARY: Large areas of forestland in temperate North America, as well as in other parts of the world, are growing older and will soon transition into middle and then late successional stages exceeding 100 yr in age. These ecosystems have been important regional carbon sinks as they recovered from prior anthropogenic and natural disturbance, but their future sink strength, or annual rate of carbon storage, is in question. Ecosystem development theory predicts a steady decline in annual carbon storage as forests age, but newly available, direct measurements of forest net CO 2 exchange challenge that prediction. In temperate deciduous forests, where moderate severity disturbance regimes now often prevail, there is little evidence for any marked decline in carbon storage rate during mid-succession. Rather, an increase in physical and biological complexity under these disturbance regimes may drive increases in resource-use efficiency and resource availability that help to maintain significant carbon storage in these forests well past the century mark. Conservation of aging deciduous forests may therefore sustain the terrestrial carbon sink, whilst providing other goods and services afforded by these biologically and structurally complex ecosystems., (© 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.)

Deforestation and forest degradation cause the deterioration of resources and ecosystem services. However, there are still no operational indicators to measure forest status, especially for forest degradation. In the present study, we analysed the thermal response number (TRN, calculated by daily total net radiation divided by daily temperature range) of 163 sites including mature forest, disturbed forest, planted forest, shrubland, grassland, savanna vegetation and cropland. TRN generally increased with latitude, however the regression of TRN against latitude differed among vegetation types. Mature forests are superior as thermal buffers, and had significantly higher TRN than disturbed and planted forests. There was a clear boundary between TRN of forest and non-forest vegetation (i.e. grassland and savanna) with the exception of shrubland, whose TRN overlapped with that of forest vegetation. We propose to use the TRN of local mature forest as the optimal TRN (TRN opt ). A forest with lower than 75% of TRN opt was identified as subjected to significant disturbance, and forests with 66% of TRN opt was the threshold for deforestation within the absolute latitude from 30° to 55°. Our results emphasized the irreplaceable thermal buffer capacity of mature forest. TRN can be used for early warning of deforestation and degradation risk. It is therefore a valuable tool in the effort to protect forests and prevent deforestation., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The global carbon (C) balance is vulnerable to disturbances that alter terrestrial C storage. Disturbances to forests occur along a continuum of severity, from low-intensity disturbance causing the mortality or defoliation of only a subset of trees to severe stand- replacing disturbance that kills all trees; yet considerable uncertainty remains in how forest production changes across gradients of disturbance intensity. We used a gradient of tree mortality in an upper Great Lakes forest ecosystem to: (1) quantify how aboveground wood net primary production (ANPP,) responds to a range of disturbance severities; and (2) identify mechanisms supporting ANPPw resistance or resilience following moderate disturbance. We found that ANPPw declined nonlinearly with rising disturbance severity, remaining stable until >60% of the total tree basal area senesced. As upper canopy openness increased from disturbance, greater light availability to the subcanopy enhanced the leaf-level photosynthesis and growth of this formerly light-limited canopy stratum, compensating for upper canopy production losses and a reduction in total leaf area index (LAI). As a result, whole-ecosystem production efficiency (ANPPw/LAI) increased with rising disturbance severity, except in plots beyond the disturbance threshold. These findings provide a mechanistic explanation for a nonlinear relationship between ANPPw, and disturbance severity, in which the physiological and growth enhancement of undisturbed vegetation is proportional to the level of disturbance until a threshold is exceeded. Our results have important ecological and management implications, demonstrating that in some ecosystems moderate levels of disturbance minimally alter forest production.

The concept of stability is central to the study and sustainability of vital ecosystem goods and services as disturbances increase globally. While ecosystem ecologists, including carbon (C) cycling scientists, have long‐considered multiple dimensions of disturbance response, our discipline lacks an agreed‐upon analytical framework for characterizing multidimensional stability. Here, we advocate for the broader adoption of a standardized and normalized multidimensional stability framework for analyzing disturbance response. This framework includes four dimensions of stability: the degree of initial change in C fluxes (i.e., resistance); rate (i.e., resilience) and variability (i.e., temporal stability) of return to pre‐disturbance C fluxes; and the extent of return to pre‐disturbance C fluxes (i.e., recovery). Using this framework, we highlight findings not readily seen from analysis of absolute fluxes, including trade‐offs between initial and long‐term C flux responses to disturbance; different overall stability profiles among fluxes; and, using a pilot dataset, similar relative stability of net primary production following fire and insect disturbances. We conclude that ecosystem ecologists' embrace of a unifying multidimensional stability framework as a complement to approaches focused on absolute C fluxes could advance global change research by aiding in the novel interpretation, comprehensive synthesis, and improved forecasting of ecosystems' response to an increasing array of disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many secondary deciduous forests of eastern North America are approaching a transition in which mature early‐successional trees are declining, resulting in an uncertain future for this century‐long carbon (C) sink. We initiated the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment (FASET) at the University of Michigan Biological Station to examine the patterns and mechanisms underlying forest C cycling following the stem girdling‐induced mortality of >6,700 early‐successional Populus spp. (aspen) and Betula papyrifera (paper birch). Meteorological flux tower‐based C cycling observations from the 33‐ha treatment forest have been paired with those from a nearby unmanipulated forest since 2008. Following over a decade of observations, we revisit our core hypothesis: that net ecosystem production (NEP) would increase following the transition to mid‐late‐successional species dominance due to increased canopy structural complexity. Supporting our hypothesis, NEP was stable, briefly declined, and then increased relative to the control in the decade following disturbance; however, increasing NEP was not associated with rising structural complexity but rather with a rapid 1‐yr recovery of total leaf area index as mid‐late‐successional Acer, Quercus, and Pinus assumed canopy dominance. The transition to mid‐late‐successional species dominance improved carbon‐use efficiency (CUE = NEP/gross primary production) as ecosystem respiration declined. Similar soil respiration rates in control and treatment forests, along with species differences in leaf physiology and the rising relative growth rates of mid‐late‐successional species in the treatment forest, suggest changes in aboveground plant respiration and growth were primarily responsible for increases in NEP. We conclude that deciduous forests transitioning from early to middle succession are capable of sustained or increased NEP, even when experiencing extensive tree mortality. This adds to mounting evidence that aging deciduous forests in the region will function as C sinks for decades to come. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Fire after clear cut had minor effects on a century of carbon pool, flux recovery. • Century-old recovering forests stored as much carbon as older legacy stands. • Late successional legacy stands were variable carbon sinks and large carbon stores. • Temperature extremes increased soil respiration and may be eroding the carbon sink. Effective forest carbon (C) management requires an understanding of how stand-replacing disturbances affect C pools and fluxes over successional timescales, and how the growth of secondary forests compares with that of undisturbed forests. In the upper Great Lakes region, fires that followed clear-cut harvesting shaped a century-old cohort of secondary forests, but the long-term effects of fire on C cycling in this relatively fire-averse landscape remain poorly understood. We examined how two different stand-replacing disturbances – one with and the other without fire – influenced C pools and fluxes through a century of stand development, comparing secondary aspen-dominated (Populus) forests with legacy late successional stands encompassing the ages and species compositions that would be prevalent today in the absence of stand replacement. Our work at the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) used experimental forest chronosequences established following clear-cut harvesting or clear-cut harvesting followed by fire, along with three > 130-yr-old late successional deciduous broadleaf (DBF), evergreen needleleaf (ENF), and mixed (MIX) forest functional types. The successional trajectories and values of total (above- and belowground) ecosystem C mass, net primary production (NPP), and net ecosystem production (NEP) were similar regardless of whether fires occurred following clear-cut harvesting. Moreover, 80 + year old secondary forests' C pools and fluxes were comparable to late successional ENF and MIX, but were at times lower than DBF. While the century-old secondary forests and legacy stands served as consistent C sinks over the last century, more extreme temperatures in recent years may be eroding NEP by accelerating C losses from soils. We conclude that the compounding effects of fire and clear-cut harvesting were similar to those from clear-cut harvesting alone, possibly because of the disturbance-adapted properties of pioneer species, most notably aspen; however, our results also suggest that changing climate rather than prior disturbance may jeopardize the future of this long-term terrestrial C sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Light use efficiency (LUE) is an important variable characterizing plant eco-physiological functions and refers to the efficiency at which absorbed solar radiation is converted into photosynthates. The estimation of LUE at regional to global scales would be a significant advantage for global carbon cycle research. Traditional methods for canopy level LUE determination require meteorological inputs which cannot be easily obtained by remote sensing. Here we propose a new algorithm that incorporates the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and a modified form of land surface temperature (Tm) for the estimation of monthly forest LUE based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. Results demonstrate that a model based on EVI×Tm parameterized from ten forest sites can provide reasonable estimates of monthly LUE for temperate and boreal forest ecosystems in North America with an R2 of 0.51 (p<0.001) for the overall dataset. The regression coefficients (a, b) of the LUE–EVI×Tm correlation for these ten sites have been found to be closely correlated with the average EVI (EVI_ave, R2 =0.68, p=0.003) and the minimum land surface temperature (LST_min, R2 =0.81, p=0.009), providing a possible approach for model calibration. The calibrated model shows comparably good estimates of LUE for another ten independent forest ecosystems with an overall root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.055gC per mol photosynthetically active radiation. These results are especially important for the evergreen species due to their limited variability in canopy greenness. The usefulness of this new LUE algorithm is further validated for the estimation of gross primary production (GPP) at these sites with an RMSE of 37.6gCm−2 month−1 for all observations, which reflects a 28% improvement over the standard MODIS GPP products. These analyses should be helpful in the further development of ecosystem remote sensing methods and improving our understanding of the responses of various ecosystems to climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]