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Fire remains one of the main natural disturbance factors in the European boreal zone and understanding climatic forcing on fire activity is important for projecting effects of climate change on ecosystem services in this region. We analyzed records of annually burned areas in 16 administrative regions of the European boreal zone (countries or administrative units within countries) and fire weather variability to test for their spatio-temporal patterns over the 1901-2017 period.Over the 1992-2017 period, the region exhibited large variability in forest fire activity with the fire cycles varying from similar to 1600 (St. Petersburg region) to similar to 37000 years (Finland). The clustering of administrative units in respect to their burned area, suggested the presence of sub-regions with synchronous annual variability in burned areas. Large fire years (LFYs) in each of the clusters were associated with the development of the high pressure cell over or in immediate proximity of the regions in question in July, indicating climatic forcing of LFYs. Contingency analysis indicated that there was no long-term trend in the synchrony of LFYs observed simultaneously in several administrative units. We documented a trend towards higher values of Monthly Drought Code (MDC) for the months of April and May in the western (April) and northern (April and May) sections. The significant positive correlation between biome-wide fire activity index and June SNAO (Summer North Atlantic Oscillation) (r = 0.53) pointed to the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation, in particular the summer European blocking pattern, in controlling forest fires across EBZ. The forest fire activity of the European boreal zone remains strongly connected to the annual climate variability. Higher frequency of strongly positive SNAO states in the future will likely synchronize years with a large area burned across the European boreal zone.

In northern Europe, a long history of human exploitation effectively eliminated legacies of natural disturbances in mixed oak forests and we currently lack understanding of the role of natural disturbance factors in affecting oak regeneration into the forest canopies. We compiled dendrochronological, observational and paleochronological data from Southern Sweden to discuss the role of forest fires in oak (Quercus spp.) dynamics. We analyzed oak age structure and its growth dynamics in six southern Swedish forests, which experienced fires between 42 and 158 years prior to our sampling. Extending our analysis over longer time frames, we studied the relationship between sediment charcoal and oak pollen in an area of south-eastern Sweden, where oak has been a common canopy species. In three of the study sites, forest fires resulted in increased oak regeneration. Although fires were generally not associated with a wave of growth releases in surviving trees, the mean basal area growth rate of oaks increased by a range of 108% to 176%, following the fires. The overall pattern indicated that historical fires in oak-dominated forests were of low severity, did not kill canopy oaks, and yet provided a window of regeneration opportunities for that species. Post-fire sprouting of oak and an increase in oak seedling densities following modern prescribed fires are consistent with this explanation. Consistent with this conclusion were significant positive correlations between charcoal concentration and the oak pollen percentage in a site in southeastern Sweden. We discuss the co-occurrence of oak and pine in the historical southern Swedish landscape, as a possible analogy to eastern North American oak-pine forests. Modern conservation policies aimed at the preservation of oak in the southern Swedish landscape should consider the use of low severity fires to maintain natural oak regeneration.

The influence of landscape features on the occurrence and size of forest fires in Northern Europe has not been well-studied. In this paper, we analyzed the impact of human-related landscape properties (road and human population density), biotic features (amount of firebreak area and vegetation zone) and fire weather indices (Buildup Index, BUI and Initial Spread Index, ISI) on the occurrence and size of forest fires in Sweden from 1998 to 2017. To analyze the environmental controls of fire occurrence and fire size under different levels of climatological fire hazard, we divided the data into two subsets: (1) large fire years (LFY), defined as the years with the total amount of burned area being higher than the dataset-wide average (2002, 2003, 2006, 2008 and 2014), and (2) the remaining years (nLFY). Our analytical approach was based on spatial models using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA). Models built on both LFY and nLFY subsets suggested a strong human influence on fire occurrence: road density, the number of firebreaks, and population density, all were positively associated with fire occurrence, suggesting an important role of human-related ignitions. The southernmost vegetation zones in Sweden (boreo-nemoral and nemoral) exhibited the highest fire occurrence (LFY), a pattern potentially related to a higher population density in combination with weather more conducive for fires in this part of the country. The patterns that emerged from the fire size models pointed to the climate as the main factor controlling fire size, irrespective of the type of years analyzed. Road density, number of firebreaks and population density showed a negative association with fire size, possibly indicating higher efficiency of fire suppression in the areas with higher human presence. Vegetation zones were selected as an informative predictor, indicating that the fire activity varies across the zones, with those in mid-Sweden being the most prone to large events. The ISI correlated strongly and positively with fire size in both subsets (LFY and nLFY), pointing to the role of weather conditions favorable for fire spread, primarily that of surface fires. The BUI showed a weak negative correlation to fire size, indicating that dryness of organic horizon, specifically its deeper layers, is less relevant for predicting fire size. Contemporary fire activity in Sweden is driven by a combination of human-related ignitions, and weather conditions controlling fire spread with a moderate effect of vegetation composition and generally efficient fire suppression. Human-related landscape features (roads and population density) play a major role in shaping ignition patterns, whereas climate (ISI) and vegetation properties appear informative as predictors of fire size, even under a modern fire suppression effort.

The Sala fire in the Vastmanland County of central Sweden that burned about 14,000 ha in 2014 has been the largest fire recorded in the modern history of Sweden. To understand the long-term fire history of this area, we dendrochronologically dated fire scars on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees (live and deadwood) to reconstruct the fire cycle and fire occurrence in the area affected by the 2014 fire. We identified 64 fire years, using a total of 378 pine samples. The earliest reconstructed fire dated back to 1113 AD. The spatial reconstruction extended over the period of 1480-2018 AD. Lower levels of fire activity (fire cycle, FC = 43 years, with the central 90% of the distribution limited by 35 to 57 years) dominated in the earlier period (1480-1690 AD) that was followed by a strong decrease in fire activity since 1700 (FC = 403 years, with 90% of the distribution being within 149 to 7308 years), with a fire-free period between 1756 and 2014. Sala area, therefore, features the earliest known onset of fire suppression in Scandinavia. The high demand for timber during the peak in mining activities in the study area around the 1700-1800s, accompanied by passive fire suppression policies, were possibly the main drivers of the decline in fire activity. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) did not show significant departures in the drought proxy during the ten years with the largest area burned between 1480 and1690. It is unclear whether the result is due to the relatively small area sampled or an indication that human controls of fires dominated during that period. However, significant departures during the following period with low fire activity (1700-1756), which just preceded the last fire-free period, suggested that the climate became an increasingly important driver of fire during the onset of the suppression period. We speculate that the lack of major firebreaks, the homogenization of forests, and the lack of burned areas with low fuel loads might contribute to the occurrence of the exceptionally large 2014 fire in Sala.