Search

This study analyzed and summarized in detail the spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes, tidal responses, focal mechanisms, and stress field characteristics for the M 7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence in February 1975. The foreshocks are related to the main fault and the conjugate faults surrounding the extension step-over in the middle. The initiation timing of the foreshock clusters and the original time of the mainshock were clearly modulated by the Earth's tidal force and coincided with the peak of dilational volumetric tidal strain. As a plausible and testable hypothesis, we proposed a fluid-driven foreshock model, by which all observed seismicity features can be more reasonably interpreted with respect to the results of existing models. Together with some other known examples, the widely existing step-over along strike-slip faults and associated conjugate faults, especially for extensional ones in the presence of deep fluids, favor the occurrence of short-term foreshocks. Although clustered seismicity with characteristics similar to those of the studied case is not a sufficient and necessary condition for large earthquakes to occur under similar tectonic conditions, it undoubtedly has a warning significance for the criticality of the main fault. Subsequent testing would require quantification of true/false positives/negatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following laboratory experiments and friction theory, slow slip events and seismicity rate accelerations observed before mainshocks are sometimes interpreted as evidence of a nucleation phase. However, such precursory observations still remain scarce and are associated with different time and length scales, raising doubts about their actual preparatory nature. We study the 2017 Valparaiso Mw = 6.9 earthquake, which was preceded by aseismic slip accompanied by an intense seismicity, suspected to reflect its nucleation phase. We complement previous observations, which have focused only on precursory activity, with a continuous investigation of seismic and aseismic processes from the foreshock sequence to the post‐mainshock phase. By building a high‐resolution earthquake catalog and searching for anomalous seismicity rate increases compared to aftershock triggering models, we highlight an over‐productive seismicity starting within the foreshock sequence and persisting several days after the mainshock. Using repeating earthquakes and high‐rate GPS observations, we highlight a transient aseismic perturbation starting 1‐day before the first foreshock and continuing after the mainshock. The estimated slip rate over time is lightly impacted by large magnitude earthquakes and does not accelerate toward the mainshock. Therefore, the unusual seismic and aseismic activity observed during the 2017 Valparaiso sequence might be interpreted as the result of a slow slip event starting before the mainshock and continuing beyond it. Rather than pointing to a possible nucleation phase of the 2017 Valparaiso mainshock, the identified slow slip event acts as an aseismic loading of nearby faults, increasing the seismic activity, and thus the likelihood of a large rupture. Plain Language Summary: Both laboratory experiments and friction theory show that earthquakes do not begin abruptly but are preceded by an accelerating slip associated with a seismicity increase. On the field, however, such precursory observations still remain scarce and are associated with different characteristic time and length scales, raising doubts that they actually reflect the same nucleation phenomena. We study the 2017 Valparaiso M = 6.9 earthquake, which was preceded by both a slow slip and an intense seismicity suspected to reflect such nucleation phase. We complement previous studies, that have focused only on precursory activity, with a continuous investigation of seismic and slow slip before and after the mainshock. Using refined earthquake detection tools, we highlight a seismicity excess starting before and persisting several days after the mainshock. Using repeating earthquakes and high‐resolution GPS, we show that the slow slip does not accelerate toward the mainshock, but continues after it. Therefore, rather than pointing to a possible accelerating nucleation phase of the Valparaiso mainshock, we suggest that the slow slip drives an enhanced seismic activity that is not mainshock‐directed. Within such slow‐slip driven seismicity, the probability of triggering a large earthquake (subsequently considered as the mainshock) is increased. Key Points: We use a high resolution seismic catalog and GPS to investigate seismic and aseismic process before and after the Valparaiso mainshockAn unusually high seismicity and a slow slip event is continuously observed from the foreshock sequence up to days after the mainshockRather than a nucleation phase of the mainshock, the slow slip event acts as an aseismic loading of nearby faults during the entire sequence [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]