1. Axis of Stability: Turkish-Israeli Relations in the 21st Century.
- Author
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Devlen, Balkan and Özdamar, Özgür
- Subjects
- *
INTERNATIONAL relations , *CRISES ,FOREIGN relations of Turkey - Abstract
Will the Turkish-Israeli alliance continue in the event of a severe crisis in the Middle East? The main purpose of this study is to find an answer to this question. Turkish-Israeli alliance formed in mid-1990s is an untested alliance to this day. Whether the two states will continue to support each other if one is engaged in a severe crisis with Iran or Syria is our main inquiry. To analyze this question, we use the expected utility model developed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita?s (2002). The actors in the negotiations are Turkey, Israel, US, Iran, and Syria. We develop eight different scenarios, and run ten simulations for each scenario, ending up with a total number of eighty simulations. The results of this initial research suggest that in the majority of the simulations Turkish-Israeli alliance holds, and both countries continue to support each other in a severe crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2004