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Over the last twenty years since the introduction of automated coding schemes, research in foreign policy analysis (FPA) has made great advances. However, this automatization process is based on the analysis of verbal statements of leaders to create leadership profiles and has remained largely confined in terms of language. That is, the coding schemes can only parse English-language texts. This reduces both the quality and quantity of available data and limits the application of these leadership profiling techniques beyond the Anglosphere. Against this background, this forum offers five reports on the development of freely available coding schemes for either operational code analysis or leadership trait analysis for languages other than English (i.e., Turkish, Arabic, Spanish, German, and Persian).

The recent Arab uprisings have forced many actors to reconsider their positions regarding Middle Eastern politics. Role theory provides a viable tool to explain changes in actors’ foreign policy behaviors, presuming that states’ foreign policies are shaped by the ruling elites’ foreign policy role conceptions. This article analyzes Turkish foreign policy roles with regard to the Middle East and North Africa before and since the Arab uprisings that began in December 2010. We argue that these uprisings caused Turkey to change its emphasis from roles built on soft power instruments to harder roles requiring material capabilities. We also discuss the implications of this change with reference to theories of international politics.

Cataloged from PDF version of article. Thesis (Master's): Bilkent University, Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2022. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 119-132). Far-right parties with strong nationalist tendencies have occupied a central role in Turkish politics. Sometimes as the radical voice of the opposition parties, sometimes as the minor coalition partner, Turkish nationalism has found itself a strong grip on the political scene since the 1950’s. Alparslan Türkeş and Devlet Bahçeli are viewed as the pioneer figures in the long journey of Turkish nationalism. Both leaders have served as party leaders for more than two decades through several coups, domestic and international changes. In this regard, understanding their belief systems becomes a must in order to understand the foreign policy culture of the Turkish far-right. By utilizing the operational code, a quantitative leadership assessment method that maps the political beliefs of leaders in order to identify causal mechanisms in foreign policy decisions (George, 1969); (Walker, 1983) the study looks to identify the general patterns of Turkish far-right leaders in foreign policy. While analysing the belief systems of Türkeş and Bahçeli, the thesis also looks at the foreign policy events that the leaders experienced. Thus, the quantitative results that stem from the automated coding system ProfilerPlus will be combined with a qualitative aspect that will shed light to the events that give meaning to the beliefs. Three main sets of hypotheses are tested in the thesis. First, Bahçeli is expected to have more stable views on the nature of political universe; Türkeş is believed to have a more hostile understanding of the political universe compared to Bahçeli; and both leaders are expected to see their political other more hostile than the average world leader. Secondly, the study hypothesizes that Türkeş and Bahçeli select more cooperative strategies during their governmental terms but remain conflictual compared to the average world leader in any setting. Third and finally, the thesis argues for the two leaders to possess lower self-control over the course of historical development compared to the average world leader; and expects them to have similar control levels during the 1990’s –a time period in which both leaders ruled their Parties. The findings of the study reveal that Türkeş and Bahçeli possess high levels of hostility towards the political universe, adopt conflictual strategies compared to the average world leader, and their level of historical control remain slightly over the average world leader. While there are minor differences among the two leaders, a clear party orientation can be spotted in the field of foreign policy. Approaching the strategic culture debate from a theoretical perspective, their typologies correspond with a ‘realist-other’ approach on the nature of political universe alongside ‘mixed self-strategies’ that swing between moderate ‘idealism’ and ‘realism.’ Nevertheless, the findings also show that most deviations from their career averages have occurred during governmental power and brief opportunity windows. In adopting a longitudinal approach, the thesis analyses the belief systems of the two leaders in several time-frames. by Kerem Gül M.A.

Cataloged from PDF version of article. Thesis (Master's): Bilkent University, Department of International Relations, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2022. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 110-124). This thesis examines the microfoundations of two Israeli strategic culture schools attributed to the first two prime ministers of Israel, David Ben-Gurion and Moshe Sharett. Historical accounts attribute Ben-Gurion to a realist orientation, while they attribute Sharett to an idealist orientation. However, these orientations rely on interpretive methods and lack empirical testing. By utilizing operational code analysis as a well-established foreign policy analysis tool, I empirically test to what extent these attributions are reflected in their political beliefs. This thesis employs an automated content analysis method via ProfilerPlus software based on the Verbs in Context System (VICS) procedure to code leaders' speeches as data. The results show that Ben-Gurion’s instrumental beliefs (image of Self) reflect a conflictual image of the political universe as a Type DEF realist leader, while Moshe Sharett’s instrumental beliefs reflect the cooperative characteristics of Type A idealist leadership typology, which align with the historical accounts. As for the philosophical beliefs (image of Other), the findings surprisingly show mixed results. Findings reveal that Sharett’s results differ from his historical accounts, while Ben-Gurion’s results confirm his historical accounts. Both Ben-Gurion and Sharett viewed Other as Type B realist leader. This thesis shows how the synthesis between individual-level variables and structural explanations of foreign policy orientations can advance the explanatory value of international relations theories. by Ahmet Erğurum M.A.

Cataloged from PDF version of article. Thesis (Ph.D.): Bilkent University, Department of International Relations, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2021. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 225-249). International organizations, individual states, and groups of states increasingly often use economic sanctions an alternative tool of foreign policy. While there are multiple studies analyzing effectiveness and economic, political, or humanitarian consequences of sanctions, much less attention is given to their psychological impacts. Presenting one of the rare systematic studies of psychological consequences of sanctions, this dissertation aims to analyze the effects of the economic sanctions on the political beliefs of the leaders of targeted states. Using operational code analysis, this research investigates whether economic sanctions lead to a change in operational codes of the leaders of Iran, Russia, and Syria representing the major cases of sanctions in the last two decades. The research demonstrates that while economic sanctions do not correspond to an immediate cognitive change, they are likely to trigger leaders’ more gradual learning. The results show that the leaders’ rhetoric after sanctions reflected multiple belief changes, some of which were similar across cases. For example, in five out of six analyzed instances, the targeted leaders started to perceive ‘other’ international actors less friendly than before. Presenting the first systematic analysis of a specific external shock on operational codes of leaders in different geographical, temporal, and political settings, this dissertation contributes to the political belief change literature. At the same time this study fills the gap in the research on psychological consequences of sanctions. by Evgeniia Shahin Ph.D.

Despite the significance of the subject, studies on the foreign policy preferences of European populist radical right leaders are scarce except for a handful of examples. Are European populist radical right leaders more hostile than other world leaders or comparatively friendly? Do they use cooperative or conflictual strategies to achieve their political goals? What are the leadership types associated with their strategic orientations in international relations? Using the operational code construct in this empirical study, we answer these questions and depict the foreign policy belief systems of seven European populist radical right leaders. We test whether they share a common pattern in their foreign policy beliefs and whether their foreign policy belief systems are significantly different from the norming group of average world leaders. The results indicate that European populist radical right leaders lack a common pattern in terms of their foreign policy belief systems. While the average scores of the analysed European populist radical right leaders suggest that they are more conflictual in their world views, results also show that they employ instrumental approaches relatively similar to the average group of world leaders. This article illuminates the microfoundations of strategic behaviour in international relations and arrives at conclusions about the role of European populist radical right leaders in mainstream International Relations discussions, such as idealism versus realism. In this sense, the cognitivist research school complements and advances structural accounts of international relations by analysing leadership in world affairs.

Cataloged from PDF version of article. Thesis (M.S.): Bilkent University, Department of International Relations, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2016. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 195-207). The psychological approach employed in Leadership Studies asserts that understanding a leader’s characteristics is of paramount importance in understanding the role of that leader in foreign policy decisions. As the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and Khomeini before him, has ultimate veto power over Iran’s foreign policy, and as such, an analysis of his political beliefs is warranted. Utilizing Operational Code Analysis, this research aims to identify patterns in the political belief systems of Khomeini and Khamenei. Three main hypotheses have been posited in this thesis: (1) The political beliefs of Supreme Leaders Khomeini and Khamenei will reveal significant differences from the average world leader (i.e. norming group). (2) Supreme Leader Khamenei’s foreign policy decisions will be more cooperative than his predecessor (Khomeini). (3) The Supreme Leaders’ political belief systems have evolved throughout their tenure as Iran’s leaders due to the experience gained in office. The results reveal that the supreme leaders of Iran demonstrate several significant differences in their political belief system in contrast with the average leader, that Khamenei is indeed more cooperative than Khomeini, and that both leaders’ political belief systems have changed over time. Furthermore, the findings show that Supreme Leader Khamenei is particularly invested in the nuclear program and highly wary of the ‘other’ in the political universe when it comes to this issue. by Elizabeth Richter. M.A.

Siyasi İslam hareketi ve belli başlı İslamcı örgütler Soğuk Savaş sonrası dönemde Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika'da muazzam bir şekilde güçlenmişlerdir. Müslüman Kardeşler dünyanın en büyük ve en etkili Islamcı hareketi olarak görülmektedir ve bu özelliği ile Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika politikalarının genel tabiatını ciddi şekilde etkilemektedir. Psikolojik yaklaşım, karar verici durumunda olan liderlerin karakteristik özelliklerinin dış politika çıktılarını anlamada çok kritik bir önemi olduğunu iddia eder (Hudson 2005). Bu literatür içerisinde, liderlerin inançlarının, dış politika yapımına etkisi çerçevesinde, çalışılması dünya politikalarını anlamak için geliştirilen en yenilikçi yaklaşımlardan birisidir (Leites 1951; George 1969). Bu çalışma Operasyonel Kod Analizi kullanarak, Muhammed Mursi, Raşid Gannuşi ve Halid Meşal'ın dış politika davranışlarında kendisini gösteren Islamcı dış politikanın genel motiflerini ortaya çıkarmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu tezde iki ana hipotez öne sürülmektedir. Birincisi, Müslüman Kardeşler örgütü ile ilintili olan üç liderin dış politika inançları ile 'standart örneklem' içerisinde yer alan dünya liderlerinin inançları arasında kayda değer bir farklılık bulunmamaktadır. İkinci olarak, tamamen farklı siyasal ve kültürel yapılarda yer almalarına rağmen üç İslamcı liderin dış politika davranışlarının tam benzerlik modeline işaret ettiği varsayımında bulunulmuştur. Analiz sonuçları iki örneklem arasında sadece birkaç istatistiksel olarak önemli farklılık olduğunu saptayıp, üç Müslüman Kardeşler lideri ile ortalama dünya liderinin operasyonel kodlarının birbirlerine yakın olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca, bulgular farklı siyasi sistemde hareket etmelerine rağmen üç İslamcı liderin de stratejik çevre içerisinde tanımladıkları 'ötekiye' karşı birbirine benzer dış politika davranışları gösterdiği argümanını desteklemektedir. Political Islam and particular Islamist organizations have broadly gained strength across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the post-Cold War era. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is viewed as the world's largest and most influential Islamist organization impinging upon the wider landscape of contemporary MENA politics. The psychological approach contends that the characteristics of leaders making foreign policy are crucial to understanding ultimate foreign policy outcomes (Hudson 2005). In this literature, the study of leaders' beliefs is one the most progressive approaches to world politics which focuses on leaders' belief systems and their impacts on foreign policy-making (Leites 1951; George 1969). By utilizing the operational code analysis, this research aims to unravel the general patterns of Islamist foreign policy manifested itself in three MB-affiliated MENA leaders' foreign policy behaviors in the post-Arab uprisings era: Egypt's Morsi, Tunisia's Ghannouchi, and Hamas' Meshaal. Two main hypotheses are posited in this thesis. First, the foreign policy beliefs of three MB-affiliated MENA leaders are not significantly different from the world leaders' included in the 'norming group.' Secondly, it is hypothesized that foreign policy behaviors of three Islamist leaders designate uniformity pattern even though these leaders operate in quite different political and cultural settings. The analysis results yield that operational codes of three MB leaders are analogous to the average world leader's since there are only a few statistically significant differences. The findings also support the argument that despite operating in different political systems, all three MB-Islamists exhibit similar foreign policy behaviors towards the 'other' in a strategic environment. 199