569 results on '"International Economics"'
Search Results
2. Declining long‐run income elasticities and the rise of cyclicality of trade: Evidence from Greece, 1995–2018.
- Author
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Lazarou, Nicholas‐Joseph and Zervas, Andreas
- Subjects
ELASTICITY (Economics) ,FOREIGN exchange rates ,REAL income ,INTERNATIONAL economic relations ,STRUCTURAL components ,IMPORTS - Abstract
We estimate export and import demand elasticities of Greece between 1995 and 2018 by establishing cointegrating relationships between exports or imports, income and the real effective exchange rate. When accounting for structural breaks in the series, we observe that the long‐run income elasticities of exports and imports are elastic and decline throughout the sample period. The structural component of the Greek trade growth decreases across time. The cyclical counterpart rises and exhibits high variation. Changes in the real effective exchange rate have the opposite than predicted effects on trade in the postcrisis period for exports and throughout the sample for imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Exchange rate and long-run price relationship in 19 selected European and LDCs.
- Author
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Arize, Augustine Chuck, Kalu, Ebere Ume, Okoyeuzu, Chinwe, and Malindretos, John
- Subjects
FOREIGN exchange rates ,PURCHASING power parity ,MONETARY policy ,ERROR correction (Information theory) ,DEVELOPED countries - Abstract
Purpose: This study aims to make a comparative study of the applicability of the purchasing power parity (PPP) in selected less developing countries (LDCs) on one hand and European countries on the other hand. Design/methodology/approach: The research design is empirical and ex post facto. This study uses an assortment of co-integration tests and error correction representation. The chosen approach allows for the consideration of long-run elasticities and the dynamics of the short-run adjustment of exchange rates to changes in domestic and foreign prices. Monthly data are used for the period 1980:1 through 2015:12 (i.e. 432 observations). Findings: Results from long-run co-integration analysis, short-run error correction models and persistence profile analysis overwhelmingly confirm the validity of PPP in these two sets of countries regardless the disparity in their relative exchange rate and price characteristics. Research limitations/implications: Curiously, several of these empirical studies and still many more, have focused their attention on the experiences of industrialized countries, with a few investigations devoted to LDCs. The evidence is even scarcer in Africa. Clearly, the acceptance of any hypothesis as a credible explanation of economic reality hinges on the robustness of the hypothesis across countries with different economic and institutional frameworks. Practical implications: Knowledge of the extent to which exchange rate and relative prices can be linked in the long run is important for the design and management of inflation and the implementation of monetary policy. For instance, policy actions aimed at stabilizing the domestic economy can obtain results that are, at best, uncertain in the absence of correct characterization of the PPP dynamics. Moreover, structural and macroeconomic adjustment programs implemented in these countries to achieve economic growth and external competitiveness could be unsuccessful if flawed estimates of PPP exchange rates are retained. Originality/value: Several empirical studies have been done to prove the validity or otherwise of the PPP. Unlike prior authors, this study makes a comparative study of the applicability of the PPP in selected LDC on one hand and European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Directions for improving foreign exchange rates in the Republic of Azerbaijan
- Author
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Jala Shahin Alizadeh and Azərbaycan Dövlət İqtisad Universiteti
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,Business ,International economics ,The Republic - Abstract
The main purpose of the study is to study the trends in the improvement of exchange rates in the country. The research will be carried out by several methods, the first of which is the method of analysis. The second method is a comparative method. The methodological basis of the research is the systematic and historical approaches of local and foreign authors mentioned in the scientific literature, as well as in legislative documents. The limitation of the study is that the national literature on the subject is relatively small. The practical significance of the study is the study of the mechanism for selecting monetary policy in the Republic of Azerbaijan and assessing its impact on the exchange rate regime. Key words: macroeconomics, currency intervention, Central Bank, exchange rate
- Published
- 2020
5. Exchange rate interest rate linkages in India: an empirical investigation.
- Author
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Shastri, Shruti and Shastri, Swati
- Subjects
INTEREST rates ,FOREIGN exchange rates ,COINTEGRATION ,STRUCTURAL break (Economics) ,CENTRAL banking industry - Abstract
Purpose The purpose of the paper is to examine the linkages between exchange rate and interest rate in India using quarterly data from Q1 of 1996 to Q4 of 2014.Design/methodology/approach Stationarity properties of data are checked using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Dickey–Fuller test with GLS de-trending (DF-GLS) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests and Perron’s unit root test with structural breaks. Johansen Juselius and Gregory Hansen tests are applied to assess cointegration, and block exogeneity test is used to detect causality among variables.Findings The study finds long-run relationship among interest rate, rupee–dollar exchange rate, capital flows, intervention, inflation differential, money supply differentials, output differentials and trade-balance differentials. However, the interest rate does not explain movements in the exchange rate, directly and indirectly, via capital flows. Intervention by the Central Banks to stabilize exchange rate does not have implications for movements in interest rate.Research limitations/implications The study finds capital flows to be insensitive with respect to interest rates and hence thwarts International Monetary Fund ’s (IMF) claim of using interest rates as a tool to stabilize exchange rate. The much-debated conflict between exchange-rate stabilization and control over interest rates also does not hold up to the empirical reality of India.Originality/value The study augments the existing literature by taking into account the problem of structural break in the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate. Three measures of interest rate are used to assess the robustness of results adding to their credibility compared to previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Revenue management of changes in foreign exchange rates - case study of production companies with foreign participation in the Czech Republic
- Author
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Tomáš Pilař, Jana Hinke, Andrea Čermáková, and Marian Vdoviak
- Subjects
Czech ,Foreign exchange rates ,Revenue management ,Sociology and Political Science ,language ,Production (economics) ,Business ,International economics ,General Economics, Econometrics and Finance ,language.human_language - Published
- 2020
7. Performance of Handicraft Sector in Bhutan with fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rates
- Author
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K. B. Singh
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,Handicraft ,Business ,International economics - Published
- 2020
8. Thailand Foreign Direct Investment to CLMV Countries: Macro Economics Approach
- Author
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Sujinda Chemsripong
- Subjects
Competition (economics) ,Economics and Econometrics ,education.field_of_study ,Foreign exchange rates ,Population ,Developing country ,Context (language use) ,Business ,Foreign direct investment ,International economics ,Macro ,education ,Investment (macroeconomics) - Abstract
Thailand FDI allows countries to enter new markets through imports of goods at lower prices and access to foreign technology because FDI strengthens the economy and increases competition in the era of globalization. Therefore, concerning economic development and regional issues in the context of developing countries Thailand is one of the emergings. Identifying the key factors involved in TFDI is critical for sustainable growth. This study focuses on the factors that define TFDI to CLMV countries using macroeconomic analysis. Quantitative analysis using multiple regression equations on 15-year time series data, during 2005-2019. The results showed that GDP factors, foreign exchange rates, inflation, the proportion of working-age workers to the country's population, and international cooperation are the major driver of Thailand's outward FDI investment.
- Published
- 2021
9. Foreign Exchange Rates: Legal Aspects and the Management and Minimization of Risk
- Author
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Rafael M. Manóvil
- Subjects
media_common.quotation_subject ,General Engineering ,Legislation ,International economics ,Payment ,Foreign exchange rates ,Politics ,Currency ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Profitability index ,Business ,Minification ,Foreign exchange risk ,General Environmental Science ,media_common - Abstract
The profitability of an international economical contract is directly linked to the currency determined in it and to the risks of potential foreign exchange variations. The length of the contract and the political and economical stability of the concerned country define the magnitude of the risk. The author explains various means available to the contracting parties to minimize the currency risk: taking into consideration Argentina, in many ways an unstable country, he explains the elements that must be taken into account for the selection of the payment currency and the drafting of the contract.He then itemizes the clauses that can be inserted in a contract so as to insure that it will be effectively executed in the determined currency while underlining that many of these clauses do not have any effect due to the legislation of certain countries., La rentabilité économique d’un contrat international est directement liée à la monnaie qui y est stipulée et aux risques de variations de taux de change qui peuvent survenir. L’ampleur du risque dépend de la durée du contrat et de la stabilité des pays impliqués. L’auteur analyse divers moyens à la disposition des parties au contrat pour minimiser le risque monétaire. En prenant l’exemple de l’Argentine, pays instable à plusieurs niveaux, il explique les éléments qui doivent être considérés par les parties dans le choix de la monnaie de paiement et dans la rédaction du contrat.Il détaille ensuite les clauses qui peuvent être insérées dans un contrat pour s’assurer qu’il sera bien exécuté dans la devise stipulée, en soulignant pertinemment les limites imposées à l’application de telles clauses par les lois de certains pays.
- Published
- 2019
10. Strategic Instruments to Choose Foreign Target Markets
- Author
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S.S. Galazova, Nikolay Dimitriadi, and O.N. Voronkova
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,International finance ,International trade ,Business ,International economics ,International economic relation ,General Economics, Econometrics and Finance ,General Business, Management and Accounting - Abstract
Purpose: The paper aims to elaborate the principles and the authors’ original method to choose target markets of textile and fibers manufacturers when internationalizing their economic activity. The decision on foreign target markets must be very reasonable as having chosen a new foreign market the company put a lot of resources into it. Design/Methodology/Approach: The authors suggest to take into account three factors for the most perspective foreign markets for export interventions. The cash flow in foreign trade by specific materials (textiles and fibers) was estimated by each country – to select the countries depending on textiles and fibers import. Among those countries the markets' attractiveness was estimated by their size and growth intensity. After that general opportunities of doing business by Russian companies in the country were estimated using a complex index calculated on a basis of data characterizing import from Russia volume and its dynamics, transport accessibility, GDP Volume and Dynamics. Findings: The paper contains a set of data characterizing the most perspective countries for Russian textile companies export expansion – Cambodia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Nicaragua, Viet Nam. Central and Eastern European countries (Romania, Poland, Slovenia), United Kingdom, USA, Canada are attractive from a point of view of potential prospects of business development in the country, however cooperation with them may be difficult due to some serious barriers on entering the markets. Practical Implications: The matrix can be used in managerial practices of different companies oriented on their international business activities expanding. The results of the new methods implementation (the list of the most perspective foreign markets) can be used by for management of the Russian textile companies oriented on foregn markets. Originality/Value: The paper contains a new method of foreign target markets choosing and a new strategic instrument – the matrix of export expansion markets choosing., peer-reviewed
- Published
- 2019
11. A Hitchhiker’s Guide to Understanding Exchange Rates
- Author
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Owen F. Humpage
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,Interest rate parity ,medicine.anatomical_structure ,Commerce ,Monetary policy ,medicine ,Economics ,Globe ,World trade ,Foreign exchange ,International economics ,Sterilization (economics) ,Foreign exchange risk - Abstract
Each day, more than $1.2 trillion worth of foreign exchange changes hands around the globe, an amount that far exceeds the daily value of world trade. Approximately 83 percent of these transactions involve U.S. dollars, but not all involve U.S. citizens.
- Published
- 2020
12. Study of the periodicity in Euro-US Dollar exchange rates using local alignment and random matrices
- Author
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Maria A. Korotkova and Eugene V. Korotkov
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,Smith–Waterman algorithm ,030102 biochemistry & molecular biology ,Series (mathematics) ,International economics ,Computer Science Applications ,03 medical and health sciences ,Computational Mathematics ,Foreign exchange rates ,030104 developmental biology ,Exchange rate ,Us dollar ,Econometrics ,Liberian dollar ,Economics ,Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition ,Random matrix ,Period length ,Finance - Abstract
The purpose of this study was to detect latent periodicity in the presence of deletions or insertions in the analyzed data, when the points of deletions or insertions are unknown. A mathematical method was developed to search for periodicity in the numerical series, using dynamic programming and random matrices. The developed method was applied to search for periodicity in the Euro/Dollar (Eu/$) exchange rate. The presence of periodicity within the period length equal to 24 hours and 25 hours, in the analyzed financial series, was shown. Periodicity can be detected only with insertions and deletions. The results of this study show that periodicity phase shifts, depend on the observation time. A period of 24 hours is a common phenomenon for foreign exchange rates, indices and stocks of different companies. We show it for the Bank of America and Microsoft stocks, S&P500 and NASDAG indexes and for the gold and silver prices as examples. The reasons for the existence of the periodicity in the financial ranks are discussed. The results can find application in computer systems, for the purpose of forecasting exchange rates.
- Published
- 2017
13. Random walk or a run. Market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange rate movements based on conditional probability.
- Author
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Hashimoto, Yuko, Ito, Takatoshi, Ohnishi, Takaaki, Takayasu, Misako, Takayasu, Hideki, and Watanabe, Tsutomu
- Subjects
- *
FOREIGN exchange rates , *RANDOM walks , *PRICING , *PROBABILITY theory , *INTERNATIONAL finance - Abstract
Using tick-by-tick data for the dollar–yen and euro–dollar exchange rates recorded on the actual transaction platform, a ‘run’—continuous increases or decreases in deal prices for the past several ticks—does have some predictable information on the direction of the next price movement. Deal price movements, that are consistent with order flows, tend to continue a run once it is started. Indeed, conditional probabilities of a run continuing in the same direction after several consecutive observations exceed 0.5. However, quote prices do not show such a run tendency. Hence, a random walk hypothesis is refuted in a simple test of a run using tick-by-tick data. In addition, a longer continuous increase of the price tends to be followed by a larger reversal. The findings suggest that those market participants who have access to real-time, tick-by-tick transaction data may have an advantage in predicting exchange rate movements. The findings reported here also lend support to the momentum trading strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
14. The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in an ARIMA framework.
- Author
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Serletis, Apostolos and Gogas, Periklis
- Subjects
- *
INTERNATIONAL economic relations , *CAPITAL , *INVESTMENTS , *SAVINGS , *INTERNATIONAL finance , *CAPITAL movements , *FOREIGN exchange rates , *INTERNATIONAL trade , *BALANCE of payments - Abstract
Purpose - To test the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis that the investment-to-output ratio moves one-for-one with the saving-to-output ratio, suggesting international capital mobility. Design/methodology/approach - The paper uses the econometric framework developed by Fisher and Seater, interpreting the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis as a long-run phenomenon, and paying particular attention to the integration properties of the data, since meaningful tests critically depend on these properties. The paper also investigates the power of the long-horizon regression tests, using the inverse power function of Andrews. Findings - The paper tests the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis for 15 European countries, as well as for the USA and Japan, using annual data for the period from 1960 to 2002. Evidence is found against the Feldstein and Horioka hypothesis of low international capital mobility. Originality/value - Although the findings are in contrast to those of Feldstein and Horioka, they are consistent with neoclassical growth theory according to which there is no reason to expect a relation between saving and investment if there are no barriers to capital movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2007
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
15. Financial development and economic growth nexus in Russia
- Author
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Shigeki Ono
- Subjects
causality ,050208 finance ,financial development ,lcsh:HB71-74 ,05 social sciences ,Money supply ,lcsh:Economics as a science ,Monetary economics ,International economics ,Financial development ,economic growth ,Causality ,Russia ,Vector autoregression ,Foreign exchange rates ,0502 economics and business ,Economics ,VAR ,Foreign exchange ,050207 economics ,General Economics, Econometrics and Finance ,Nexus (standard) - Abstract
This paper examines the finance-growth nexus in Russia with the vector autoregression model, taking oil prices and foreign exchange rates into account. The analyzed period is from 1999 through 2008 (Subperiod 1) and from 2009 through 2014 (Subperiod 2). The results for Subperiod 1 suggest that there is causality from economic growth to money supply and bank lending, which implies demand-following responses. The results for Subperiod 2 show that economic growth Granger causes bank lending while there is no causality from money supply to economic growth, which could be related to the dramatic decrease in the amount of intervention in foreign exchange markets.
- Published
- 2017
16. International air passenger traffic, trade openness and exchange rate in Brazil: A Granger causality test
- Author
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Elton Fernandes and Ricardo Rodrigues Pacheco
- Subjects
050210 logistics & transportation ,05 social sciences ,Developing country ,Transportation ,International economics ,010501 environmental sciences ,Management Science and Operations Research ,Air traffic control ,01 natural sciences ,Foreign exchange rates ,Exchange rate ,Granger causality ,0502 economics and business ,Openness to experience ,Economics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Civil and Structural Engineering - Abstract
Brazil has invested substantially in encouraging international air passenger traffic. The results, however, have fallen far short of expectations, raising the question of what factors should be considered in policy-making to encourage the development of international passenger air traffic in Brazil. Based on indications in the literature, this study explores relations between international trade-related factors and international air passenger movement in Brazil, using the Granger causality methodology. The study results show evidence that changes in international trade indicators hold a long-term relationship with, and precede, variations in international air passenger movement. These indicators also show significant impact on the evolution of international air passenger movement in Brazil. The study indicates a need to rethink policy and may serve as a point of reference for other developing countries.
- Published
- 2017
17. Eight conjectures about exchange rates.
- Author
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Horne, Jocelyn
- Subjects
- *
FOREIGN exchange rates , *MONETARY policy , *BALANCE of trade , *ECONOMIC reform , *INTERNATIONAL economic relations , *MONEY market - Abstract
This paper examines and dissects eight popular conjectures about exchange rates. The conjectures are: there exists a systematic linkage between economic fundamentals and exchange rates; flexible exchange rates are unstable due to destabilising speculation; flexible exchange rates are excessively volatile; the foreign exchange market is efficient; purchasing power parity holds; volatile exchange rates are harmful to trade; depreciateing exchange rates trigger a "vicious" inflammatory circle; and countries with current account deficits have depreciating exchange rates. The main message is that there is weak theoretical and empirical support for the majority of the conjectures. Only one proposition, relative PPP has strong empirical support but its policy relevance is weakened by the difficulty of interpreting departures from PPP. The remaining group for which there is inconclusive support presents the greatest challenge to research and policy as it includes the first conjecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2004
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
18. Panel cointegration and productivity bias hypothesis.
- Author
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Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen and Miteza, Ilir
- Subjects
- *
PRODUCTIVITY accounting , *COINTEGRATION , *ECONOMETRICS , *FOREIGN exchange rates , *MONETARY policy , *HYPOTHESIS - Abstract
Productivity bias hypothesis claims that deviation of the PPP based exchange rate from the equilibrium rate is mainly due to productivity differentials among countries. Early studies that employed cross-sectional data in testing the hypothesis provided mixed results. A few time-series studies have provided some support for the hypothesis. This paper relies on panel data and recent advances in panel unit-root and panel cointegration analysis and provides strong results supporting the hypothesis. The results are not sensitive to classification of the world by regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2004
19. Mutual Spillover Effects among Trade, Stock Price, and Foreign Exchange Rates in Korea
- Author
-
KimByoungJoon
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,Spillover effect ,General Engineering ,Monetary economics ,International economics ,Business ,Stock price - Published
- 2015
20. The Global Financial Crisis and the Chinese Economy: A Review of the Transmission Channels and Impacts
- Author
-
Cheejir Wu
- Subjects
jel:Z0 ,Transmission channel ,business.industry ,jel:A00 ,Immunology ,Diversification (finance) ,financial crisis, transmission channels, China, trade ,Foreign direct investment ,International economics ,International trade ,Foreign exchange rates ,Financial crisis ,Economics ,Chinese economy ,China ,business - Abstract
In this study we present an analytical framework providing guidelines for discussions and expositions on the various possible transmission mechanisms of the impacts of the global crisis on the Chinese economy. While the crisis had discernible impacts on its finance, the main channels through which China felt the impacts were trade and trade related ones. One channel is related to the diversification of export markets. Moreover, trade is closely related to the financial system. The global crisis has affected the Chinese economy by triggering worsening conditions of the financial system. Also, foreign investment has played a crucial role after the hit of the global crisis. Still one more important channel is associated with the susceptibility of the economy to the shocks of foreign exchange rates.
- Published
- 2014
21. Sustaining Factors for China’s Economic Growth
- Author
-
Yinxing Hong
- Subjects
Economic growth ,Foreign exchange rates ,education.field_of_study ,Population ,Demographic dividend ,Renminbi ,Per capita ,Economics ,International economics ,Chinese economy ,education ,China ,Foreign-exchange reserves - Abstract
China overtook Japan in 2010 as the second largest economy in the world, with a GDP of 40.1 trillion yuan in RMB (the equivalent of about US$5.88 trillion), trailing only the United States. What is behind China’s surging GDP is its status as the world’s largest exporter, second-largest importer, biggest holder of foreign reserves, and second-biggest manufacturer. (In fact, China ranks tops globally as maker of many manufactured products.) In terms of per-capita GDP (29,992 yuan in RMB), however, China lags behind many other countries and ranks outside of the top 100 because of its enormous population. In addition, when considering the fluctuations of foreign exchange rates, there is little room for elation in emerging as the world’s No. 2 economy, let alone inflated optimism over its aggregate GDP. That being said, it should be noted that China, as the second-largest economy, promises a greater potential for growth than higher-ranking smaller economies, in terms of GDP per capita. To accomplish the transformation from a large economy to a strong economy, it is imperative for China to search for new growth engines and to reorient its economy.
- Published
- 2016
22. Entry Dynamics and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-Through
- Author
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Robert J. Vigfusson, Sylvain Leduc, and Christopher J. Gust
- Subjects
Liberian dollar ,Economics ,Exchange-rate pass-through ,International economics ,International trade ,Foreign exchange rates ,Imports ,Exports - Abstract
The degree of exchange-rate pass-through to import prices is low. An average pass-through estimate for the 1980s would be roughly 50 percent for the United States implying that, following a 10 percent depreciation of the dollar, a foreign exporter selling to the U.S. market would raise its price in the United States by 5 percent. Moreover, substantial evidence indicates that the degree of pass-through has since declined to about 30 percent. Gust, Leduc, and Vigfusson (2010) demonstrate that, in the presence of pricing complementarity, trade integration spurred by lower costs for importers can account for a significant portion of the decline in pass-through. In our framework, pass-through declines solely because of markup adjustments along the intensive margin. In this paper, we model how the entry and exit decisions of exporting firms affect pass-through. This is particularly important since the decline in pass-through has occurred as a greater concentration of foreign firms are exporting to the United States. We find that the effect of entry on pass-through is quantitatively small and is more than offset by the adjustment of markups that arise only along the intensive margin. Even though entry has a relatively small impact on pass-through, it nevertheless plays an important role in accounting for the secular rise in imports relative to GDP. In particular, our model suggests that over 3/4 of the rise in the U.S. import share since the early 1980s is due to trade in new goods. Thus, a key insight of this paper is that adjustment of markups that occur along the intensive margin are quantitatively more important in accounting for secular changes in pass-through than adjustments that occur along the extensive margin.
- Published
- 2010
23. Are Chinese Exports Sensitive to Changes in the Exchange Rate?
- Author
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Shaghil Ahmed
- Subjects
Price elasticity of demand ,Counterfactual thinking ,Exchange rate ,Annual percentage rate ,Renminbi ,Economics ,Balance of trade ,International economics ,China ,Exchange-rate flexibility ,Foreign exchange rates ,Exports - Abstract
This paper builds a model of two types of Chinese exports, those processed and assembled largely from imported inputs ( processed exports) and non-processed exports. Based on this model, the sensitivity of Chinese exports to exchange rate changes is empirically examined. Unlike previous work, the estimation period includes the net real appreciation of the renminbi that has occurred over the past three years. The results show that greater exchange rate appreciation dampens export growth, both for non-processed and processed exports, with the estimated cumulative price elasticity being substantially greater than unity. When the source of the increase in the Chinese real exchange rate is appreciations against the currencies of other emerging Asian trading partners, the effect on processing exports is positive but insignificant, while the effect on non-processing exports is significantly negative. By contrast, when the source of the increase in the Chinese real exchange rate is appreciation against China's advanced-economy trading partners, the effects on both types of exports are negative. These results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. Counterfactual simulations based on the estimated model strongly suggest that if the trade-weighted real renminbi had appreciated at an annual rate of 10 percent per quarter since mid-2005, Chinese real exports would have been roughly 30 percent lower today. Thus greater exchange rate flexibility could contribute to lowering China's huge trade surplus through restraining growth of exports.
- Published
- 2010
24. Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates in International Accounting Standards and in Polish Accounting Regulations
- Author
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Ewa Rogowska
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,business.industry ,International accounting ,Accounting ,International economics ,business - Published
- 2010
25. Trade integration, competition, and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through
- Author
-
Sylvain Leduc, Robert J. Vigfusson, and Christopher J. Gust
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Pricing decision ,Exchange rate ,Demand curve ,Economics ,Foreign exchange rates ,Imports - Prices ,Exchange-rate pass-through ,Open economy ,Competitor analysis ,International economics ,Finance - Abstract
Over the past twenty years, U.S. import prices have become less responsive to the exchange rate. We propose that a significant portion of this decline is a result of increased trade integration. To illustrate this effect, we develop an open economy DGE model in which trade occurs along both the intensive and extensive margins. The key element we introduce into this environment is strategic complementarity in price setting. As a result, a firm's pricing decision depends on the prices set by its competitors. This feature implies that a foreign exporter finds it optimal to vary its markup in response to shocks that change the exchange rate, insulating import prices from exchange rate movements. With increased trade integration, exporters have become more responsive to the prices of their competitors and this change in pricing behavior accounts for a significant portion of the observed decline in the sensitivity of U.S import prices to the exchange rate.
- Published
- 2010
26. FOREIGN EXCHANGE EXPOSURE IN EMERGING MARKETS. A HOLISTIC APPROACH TO MINIMISING ITS EFFECTS ON MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES
- Author
-
Gastón Fornés
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,Commerce ,Multinational corporation ,General Medicine ,Foreign exchange ,Business ,International economics ,Emerging markets ,Qualitative research - Abstract
The article examines foreign exchange exposure in emerging markets. The authors offer a holistic approach to minimizing its effects on multinational business enterprises. Qualitative research was u...
- Published
- 2008
27. Post-euro EU and US interest rates and foreign exchange rates: Are they in harmony or in disarray?
- Author
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Ali M. Parhizgari and Ivelina Pavlova
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Harmony (color) ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Monetary policy ,Monetary economics ,International economics ,Monetary system ,Interest rate ,Foreign exchange rates ,Interest rate parity ,Economics ,Finance ,International finance ,media_common - Abstract
This paper focuses on: (1) how a select set of financial and economic factors could set the path for interest rates and foreign exchange rates, and (2) whether the resultant realized interest and exchange rates would be in harmony or in disarray. Using post-euro data for the EU and the US, an array of monetary rules is examined. In particular, the paper investigates whether the original and the extended Taylor rules provide an explanation of the dynamics of the EU monetary system since the inception of the euro. Our findings indicate that the EU and the US monetary responses are not the same and that exchange rates play a significant role.
- Published
- 2007
28. Russia’s economic space: Currencies, oil, investment
- Author
-
Kh. Kh. Valiullin
- Subjects
Macroeconomics ,Economics and Econometrics ,business.industry ,Distribution (economics) ,International economics ,Investment (macroeconomics) ,Crude oil ,Foreign exchange rates ,Economic space ,Currency ,Correlation analysis ,Economics ,business ,Transport infrastructure - Abstract
An attempt is made to estimate the influence of the currency and oil factors on the volumes and distribution of investment flows to Russian regions. The emphasis is on a correlation analysis of the impact of changes in the values of nominal foreign exchange rates (the US dollar and the Euro) and the world prices of Urals crude oil on the dynamics of Russian and foreign investments in different regions and regional groups of Russia over a ten-year period (1995–2005). Significant intergroup differences in the degree of investment susceptibility to the currency and oil factors are brought to light, resulting from the country’s heterogeneous economic space, its mineral and labor resources, uneven development of its transport infrastructure, the energy spent by local authorities in attracting investments, etc.
- Published
- 2007
29. Commodity Prices and the Dynamics of Inflation in Commodity-Exporting Nations: Evidence from Australia and Canada*
- Author
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Harry Bloch, David Sapsford, and Alfred Michael Dockery
- Subjects
Inflation ,Economics and Econometrics ,Foreign exchange rates ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Industrial production ,Economics ,International economics ,Boom ,Commodity (Marxism) ,media_common - Abstract
A commodity-price boom is under way. What does this boom mean for inflation in countries with substantial net commodity exports? The answer depends on movements in commodity prices, changes in foreign exchange rates and the determinants of domestic price inflation. We estimate equations to provide indications of the strength of each of these forces for both Australia and Canada. The results show that world commodity prices move pro-cyclically with world industrial production and that rates of change in commodity prices are directly related to domestic inflation in both countries. However, there is an offsetting impact of exchange-rate changes, which is strong enough in the case of Australia, but not Canada, to substantially eliminate the inflationary impact of a commodity-price boom.
- Published
- 2006
30. The day-of-the-week effect in foreign exchange markets: multi-currency evidence
- Author
-
Yutaka Kurihara and Nobuyoshi Yamori
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,Currency ,Names of the days of the week ,Economics ,Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous) ,Monetary economics ,Foreign exchange ,International economics ,Database transaction ,Foreign exchange market ,Finance ,Stock (geology) - Abstract
To investigate to what extent transaction mechanism matters, we examine the daily returns of 29 foreign exchange rates in the New York market. This paper finds that the day-of-the-week effect existed in the 1980s for some, not all, currencies. The fact that the day-of-the-week effect existed for only some currencies suggests that the US transaction mechanism alone cannot explain the anomaly. Furthermore, this paper finds that the day-of-the-week effect disappears for almost all currencies in the 1990s. This latter result is consistent with previous studies on anomalies in the stock markets.
- Published
- 2004
31. Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Dynamics of Retail Trade Industries on the U. S.-Canada Border
- Author
-
Jeffrey R. Campbell and Beverly Lapham
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Foreign exchange rates ,Retail trade ,050208 finance ,Lag ,05 social sciences ,International economics ,Purchasing power parity ,Exchange rate ,Average size ,Payroll ,Demand shock ,0502 economics and business ,Economics ,jel:F4 ,jel:E3 ,050207 economics ,Rapid response - Abstract
Consumers living near the U.S.-Canada border can shift their expenditures between the two countries, so real exchange rate fluctuations can act as demand shocks to border areas' retail trade industries. Using annual county-level data, we estimate the effects of real exchange rates on the number of establishments and their average payroll in border counties for four retail industries. In three of the four industries we consider, the number of operating establishments responds either contemporaneously or with a lag of one year to real exchange rate movements. For these industries, the response of retailers' average size is less pronounced. The rapid response of net entry is inconsistent with any model of persistent deviations from purchasing power parity that depends on retailers' costs of changing nominal prices.
- Published
- 2004
32. China and Emerging Asia: Comrades or Competitors?
- Author
-
John W. Schindler, Alan Ahearne, John G. Fernald, and Prakash Loungani
- Subjects
Estimation ,Exports - China ,Exports - Asia ,050208 finance ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,Disclaimer ,Exports ,Foreign exchange rates ,Trade ,Economic conditions - China ,Competitor analysis ,International economics ,International trade ,Export performance ,0502 economics and business ,8. Economic growth ,Income growth ,Business ,050207 economics ,China ,International monetary fund - Abstract
We explore whether increases in China’s exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies. We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though often not significantly so), even after controlling for the effects of income growth of trading partners and real effective exchange rates. We also present results from a VAR estimation of aggregate trade equations on the relative importance of foreign income and exchange rates in the determination of Asian export growth. An important finding is that, while exchange rates do matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters even more. In addition, we examine specific products and find evidence that a considerable shifting of trade patterns is taking place, consistent with a ‘flying geese’ pattern in which China and ASEAN-4 move into the product space vacated by the NIEs. Overall, our results suggest that China and emerging Asia are both comrades and competitors. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, or the International Monetary Fund.
- Published
- 2003
33. Competition Necessarily Tends to Produce Excess: The Experience of Free Banking in Switzerland
- Author
-
Manfred Neldner
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,050208 finance ,business.industry ,media_common.quotation_subject ,05 social sciences ,Chinese financial system ,Monetary economics ,International economics ,National bank ,Competition (economics) ,Foreign exchange rates ,Action (philosophy) ,0502 economics and business ,Loyalty ,Economics ,Retail banking ,050207 economics ,business ,Free banking ,media_common - Abstract
According to McCulloch, Longfield and Loyd, a free banking system is always prone to overissues of bank notes. Their view is supported by the free banking era in Switzerland (1826-1907), where, due to competitive pressures within the banking community and the absence of note-brand loyalty on the part of the general public, overissues (causing a rise in the foreign exchange rates above the upper gold and silver points) finally became permanent. Free competition, therefore, had to give way to collusive action and, in 1907 (with the open consent of the issuing banks), to the establishment of the Swiss National Bank.
- Published
- 2003
34. Integration and interdependence of stock and foreign exchange markets: an Australian perspective
- Author
-
Abul Shamsuddin and Jae H. Kim
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,media_common.quotation_subject ,International economics ,Interest rate ,Foreign exchange rates ,Stock exchange ,Cost of capital ,Economics ,Stock market ,Foreign exchange ,Capital market ,Finance ,Stock (geology) ,media_common - Abstract
This paper examines the integration of the Australian stock market with its two leading trading partners, the US and Japan. In investigating the extent of integration, this study takes into account the interdependence between foreign exchange rates and stock prices, since exchange rates influence international competitiveness of firms, and, via interest rates, the cost of capital. The results indicate that there was a stable long-run relationship among the Australian, US and Japanese markets prior to the Asian crisis but that this relationship disappeared in the post-Asian crisis period. An analysis of the short-run dynamic linkages among markets suggests that, following the Asian crisis, the US influence on the Australian market diminished while the influence of Japan remained at a modest level. Furthermore, the impulse response analysis indicates only a contemporaneous transmission of shocks from one market to other markets. Confidence intervals for impulse responses are estimated using the bootstrap-after-bootstrap method.
- Published
- 2003
35. CROSS COUNTRY SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: An Empirical Analysis of Six OECD Countries
- Author
-
Subarna K. Samanta
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,Cross country ,World economy ,Exchange rate ,Spillover effect ,Economics ,Oecd countries ,International economics ,Business and International Management ,General Economics, Econometrics and Finance ,Foreign exchange market ,Vector autoregression - Abstract
This article examines the extent of cross-country spillover effects with regard to the foreign exchange rates in an increasingly integrated world economy. Vector Autoregression methodologies are used to identify the spillover effects of one exchange rate changes on other exchange rates. Analysis of monthly data over 1973–1999 period for six OECD countries (Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, and Japan) does indicate the existence of strong spillover effects or interdependence among the exchange rates for most of the countries considered in this study.
- Published
- 2003
36. Foreign exchange rate exposure of selected exporting companies from the Warsaw Stock Exchange
- Author
-
Krzysztof Drachal
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Foreign exchange rates ,Interest rate parity ,Stock exchange ,Context (language use) ,International economics ,Foreign exchange ,Monetary economics ,Business ,Business and International Management ,Stock return ,Foreign exchange risk ,Foreign exchange market - Abstract
The leading Polish exporting firms were analysed in the context of a foreign exchange rate exposure. The exchange rates were selected on a criterion of the size of a trade with foreign partners. It could have been expected that for an exporter the stock return is positively linked with a change in a foreign exchange rate. The analysed sample consists of the data from the second half of 2004 to the beginning of 2015. It has been found that EUR, USD and CZK exchange rates have a negative impact, whereas GBP and RUB exchange rates have a positive impact.
- Published
- 2017
37. Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect
- Author
-
Jozef Konings, Oleg Itskhoki, and Mary Amiti
- Subjects
Marginal cost ,Economics and Econometrics ,jel:F31 ,Exchange-rate pass-through ,International economics ,Monetary economics ,jel:F41 ,Exchange rate pass-through, pricing-to-market, import intensity ,jel:F14 ,exchange rate pass-through ,import intensity ,pricing-to-market ,jel:D24 ,jel:L60 ,Foreign exchange rates ,Variable (computer science) ,Exports ,Imports ,Exchange rate ,Economics ,Production (economics) ,Market share - Abstract
Large exporters are simultaneously large importers. In this paper, we show that this pattern is key to understanding low aggregate exchange rate pass-through as well as the variation in pass-through across exporters. First, we develop a theoretical framework that combines variable markups due to strategic complementarities and endogenous choice to import intermediate inputs. The model predicts that fi rms with high import shares and high market shares have low exchange rate pass-through. Second, we test and quantify the theoretical mechanisms using Belgian fi rm-product-level data with information on exports by destination and imports by source country. We confi rm that import intensity and market share are the prime determinants of pass-through in the cross-section of fi rms. A small exporter with no imported inputs has a nearly complete pass-through of over 90 percent, while a fi rm at the 95th percentile of both import intensity and market share distributions has a pass-through of 56 percent, with the marginal cost and markup channels playing roughly equal roles. The largest exporters are simultaneously highmarket-share and high-import-intensity fi rms, which helps explain the low aggregate pass-through and exchange rate disconnect observed in the data.
- Published
- 2014
38. Deviations from purchasing power parity: causes and welfare costs
- Author
-
Charles Engel and John H. Rogers
- Subjects
Market integration ,Economics and Econometrics ,Relative purchasing power parity ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Fixed exchange rates ,International economics ,Relative price ,Purchasing power parity ,Foreign exchange rates ,Interest rate parity ,Law of one price ,Economics ,Welfare ,Finance ,media_common - Abstract
We explore deviations from short-run purchasing power parity across European cities, attempting to move beyond a "first-generation" of papers that document very large border effects. We document two very distinct types of border effects embedded in relative prices. The first is a "real barriers effect," caused by various barriers to market integration. The second is a sticky-consumer-price cum volatile exchange-rate effect. Both are shown to be important empirically, the second type especially so. We argue that the two effects are very different from each other. For the first type of effect, it is clear that border effects imply deadweight welfare losses. We argue that while the second type of border effect could be eliminated with fixed exchange rates, welfare is not necessarily increased.
- Published
- 2001
39. FDI in India:Opportunities and Issues for Financial Sector
- Author
-
Jagannath Khandu Mhaske and Abbas Lokhandwala
- Subjects
Financial management ,Foreign exchange rates ,business.industry ,Diversification (finance) ,Economics ,International trade ,Foreign direct investment ,International economics ,business ,Risk management ,Financial sector - Abstract
This paper reviews the some of the various "Theories explaining financial sector FDI", Microeconomic framework, Importance and barriers to FDI and Diverse economic environment. We will also be discussing the Risk management challenges, dynamic foreign exchange rates and the opportunities of developing Retail marketing in India. From the review, of the financial management and Macroeconomic and risk diversification theories would seem particularly well-suited to explain this reality. The financial management importance helps the microeconomic framework to entitle the GDP with the FDI resources.
- Published
- 2016
40. Foreign exchange rates and Japanese foreign direct investment in Asia
- Author
-
In-Mee Baek and Tamami Okawa
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Foreign exchange rates ,Depreciation ,Economics ,Liberian dollar ,Tariff ,Foreign direct investment ,International economics ,Investment (macroeconomics) ,General Business, Management and Accounting ,Productivity ,health care economics and organizations ,Electrical machinery - Abstract
We show that an appreciation of the yen against the dollar and against the Asian currencies significantly increases Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Asia. Also, a depreciation of the Asian currencies against the dollar, while not significantly affecting the FDI in aggregate manufacturing, have a significant positive impact in the export-oriented electrical machinery sector. The labor productivity differential has a significant impact on FDI in most sectors but the direction of the effect varies across sectors. Also, there is evidence that a higher import tariff rate or wage rate in the host country significantly decreases Japanese investment in Asia.
- Published
- 2001
41. Oil Price Fluctuations and FOREX Market: Evidence from OPEC Countries
- Author
-
Manpreet Kaur, Jaspreet Kaur, and Navita Nathani
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,Forex market ,Economics ,International economics ,Monetary economics ,Oil price ,Causality - Abstract
The paper aimed to examine the causes of fluctuations in oil prices that may be due to fluctuating foreign exchange rates and also to investigate the same relationship existence between the two variables. The present study has been conducted in OPEC nations as these are the nations which play an important role in determining oil prices, though oil prices have been taken from NYMEX WPI from period 1997-2011. The results were examined and analyzed by using Toda and Yamamoto causality approach (1995) and mixed results were found.
- Published
- 2013
42. The co-movement between copper prices and the exchange rate of five major commodity currencies
- Author
-
Gideon Els and Corlise Liesl Le Roux
- Subjects
lcsh:HB71-74 ,Commodity ,commodity currencies ,lcsh:Economics as a science ,Commodity currency ,Regression analysis ,Monetary economics ,International economics ,exchange rates ,Foreign exchange rates ,Exchange rate ,copper ,correlation ,Liberian dollar ,Economics ,commodities ,China ,co-movement - Abstract
In this study, the relationship between movements in the exchange rates of five commodity currencies (Australia, Canada, Chile, China, and South Africa) in terms of the United States Dollar (USD) and the spot USD copper price was analysed. Correlation and regression analysis (including the use of lagged variables) was used to investigate these relationships. It was found that four of the five commodity currency exchange rates have a strong co-movement relationship with copper price (i.e. the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Chilean Peso, and the South African Rand). The only exchange rate that does not have a co-movement relationship with copper prices is the Chinese Yuan. This article is based on a master’s minor dissertation study.
- Published
- 2013
43. The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates
- Author
-
Menzie D. Chinn
- Subjects
Government spending ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Foreign exchange rates ,Asia ,Productivity ,East Asia ,jel:F31 ,virus diseases ,International economics ,jel:F41 ,Development ,real exchange rate, productivity, tradables, nontradables, purchasing power parity ,Terms of trade ,Relative price ,Exchange rate ,Demand shock ,parasitic diseases ,Economics ,geographic locations ,Panel data - Abstract
The evidence for a productivity-based explanation for real exchange rate behavior of East Asian currencies is examined. Using sectoral output and employment data, relative prices and relative productivity levels are calculated for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. Time series regressions of the real exchange rate on relative prices indicate a role for relative prices for Indonesia, Japan and Korea. When examining real exchange rates and relative productivity ratios, one finds a relationship for Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines. Only when augmenting the regressions with real oil prices significant relationships are obtained for Indonesia and Korea. Relative per capita income, a proxy for preferences towards services, does not appear to be an important determinant in this sample. Panel regression results are slightly more supportive of a relative price view of real exchange rates. However, the panel regressions incorporating productivity variables, as well as other demand side factors, provide less encouraging results, except for a subset of countries (Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines). Surprisingly, neither government spending nor the terms of trade appear to be a determinant of regional real exchange rates.
- Published
- 2000
44. To chain or not to chain trade-weighted exchange rate indexes
- Author
-
Cletus C. Coughlin, Patricia S. Pollard, and Jerram C. Betts
- Subjects
Index (economics) ,Industrial production index ,National Income and Product Accounts ,International economics ,Gross domestic product ,Foreign exchange rates ,Dollar, American ,Exchange rate ,Chain (algebraic topology) ,Price index ,Liberian dollar ,Econometrics ,Economics ,Business and International Management ,General Economics, Econometrics and Finance - Abstract
With the advent of chain calculations for the U.S. national income and product accounts, it seems reasonable to contemplate using the chain approach for other indexes, such as trade-weighted exchange rates (TWEXs). A fundamental criticism of measuring the growth of gross domestic product by a fixed-base-year method is that the estimates are highly sensitive, especially when the economy?s structure is changing dramatically, to the arbitrary choice of the base year. Such a criticism can be levied against TWEXs. In fact, even TWEXs constructed using a Paasche index rather than a Laspeyres index have problems related to base periods. We examine theoretically and empirically the use ofa chain TWEX in relation to two well-known TWEX indexes: the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta index, which uses a Laspeyres index, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas index, which uses a Paasche index. The choice of base year alters the behavior ofthe dollar in these two indexes. We contrast this result with the behavior of the dollar in comparable chain TWEXs, where the base year sensitivity is absent. Our results indicate that developers of TWEXs, as well as those revising TWEXs, should consider a chain approach. Furthermore, users need to be aware of the sensitivity of TWEXs to changes in either the base period for trade weights or the reference base period for exchange rates
- Published
- 1998
45. Leads, Lags, and Trading in Global Markets
- Author
-
CopelandTom and CopelandMaggie
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Foreign exchange rates ,Accounting ,Yield (finance) ,Market system ,Economics ,International economics ,Arbitrage ,Capital market ,Futures contract ,Finance - Abstract
The development of capital markets around the world has given rise to growing interest in how the markets are linked. This study, using the Dow Jones & Company country and industry indexes, found that the United States has statistically significant one-day leads over markets in Europe and Asia, that no significant leads extend beyond one day, that changes in foreign exchange rates contribute to the links among markets, and that the industries designated “global” are significantly more sensitive to leads than are “local” industries. Lead/lag relationships may allow yield enhancement, possibly even arbitrage, through trading futures in some markets.
- Published
- 1998
46. Europe and the Maastricht Challenge
- Author
-
Michel Aglietta and Merih Uctum
- Subjects
European Monetary System (Organization) ,Foreign exchange rates ,Treaty on European Union (1992) ,Macroeconomics ,Economics and Econometrics ,Maastricht Treaty ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Convergence (economics) ,International economics ,Fiscal union ,Monetary hegemony ,Exchange rate ,Accounting ,Debt ,Political Science and International Relations ,Economics ,media_common.cataloged_instance ,European union ,Finance ,European debt crisis ,media_common - Abstract
The uncertainty caused by the exchange rate crises of 1992-93 led to two questions: Is monetary union still feasible? What strategies are best for achieving convergence according to the Maastricht criteria? This article addresses these questions by examining the progress made by the five major European Union countries in satisfying the Maastricht criteria and the two crucial impediments facing these countries--disparities in real exchange rate convergence and fiscal imbalances--and alternative strategies to deal with these impediments. Overall, our analysis suggests that the prospects for monetary union are less gloomy than many analysts believe. We show that wide bands have been useful in limiting competitive disparities. We also argue for more general fiscal criteria set forth in the Maastricht treaty. Under these more general criteria, countries that reversed the path of debt accumulation and achieved a sustainable deficit would be admitted to the monetary union. Finally, under a multispeed transition, a small group of countries will form the initial core of the monetary union, and other countries will join over time.
- Published
- 1996
47. The Impact of Economic Factors on the Foreign Exchange Rates between USA and Four Big Emerging Countries: China, India, Brazil and Mexico
- Author
-
Nguyen Quang My and Mustafa Sayim
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,Us dollar ,Exchange rate ,Order (exchange) ,Brazilian real ,Economics ,Rupee ,International economics ,Monetary economics ,Emerging markets ,China - Abstract
This study examines the impact of macro-economic factors on the foreign exchange rates between USA and four big emerging countries: India, Mexico, Brazil and China for the period of 2005 to 2014. This study uses Enter and Stepwise multiple regression methods to investigate the impact of market fundamental on the exchange rates. The empirical findings reveal that the macro-economic factors significantly predict and influence the exchange rates between USD/CNY (US dollar/Chinese yuan), USD/INR (US dollar/Indian rupee), USD/BRL (US dollar/ Brazilian real), and USD/MNX (US dollar/Mexican pesos). It is crucial to emphasize that the macroeconomic policies have to be implemented in order to stabilize and reduce the exchange rates volatilities.
- Published
- 2016
48. A foreign exchange intervention in an era of restraint
- Author
-
Christopher J. Neely
- Subjects
Foreign exchange rates ,Exchange rate ,Financial market ,Yen, Japanese ,Psychological intervention ,Economics ,Foreign exchange ,International economics ,Monetary economics ,Volatility (finance) - Abstract
The Japanese yen appreciated strongly and rapidly against other major currencies in the wake of the massive March 11, 2011, Tohoku earthquake. High volatility and disorder in financial markets prompted the G-7 authorities to jointly intervene to weaken the yen. This episode resembled the two most recent G-7 coordinated interventions: the June 1998 effort to strengthen the yen and the September 2000 effort to strengthen the euro. Exchange rates reacted strongly and quickly to these three interventions, moving 3 to 4 percent in the desired direction within 30 minutes of the announcement and exhibiting lower volatility in the following days. G-7 authorities have used intervention very sparingly since 1995, yet the March 2011 policy action is a reminder that it can be used to calm markets and move the exchange rate in the desired direction. Intervention has become much less common but more successful.
- Published
- 2011
49. The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Real Time Foreign Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets
- Author
-
Zhiwei Zhang, Hyunsoo Joo, and Fang Cai
- Subjects
Market uncertainty ,Foreign exchange rates ,Developing countries ,media_common.quotation_subject ,International economics ,Monetary economics ,Pessimism ,Exchange rate ,Optimism ,Economics ,Market sentiment ,Emerging markets ,Foreign exchange market ,media_common - Abstract
This paper utilizes a unique high-frequency database to measure how exchange rates in nine emerging markets react to macroeconomic news in the U.S. and domestic economies from 2000 to 2006. We find that major U.S. macroeconomic news have a strong impact on the returns and volatilities of emerging market exchange rates, but many domestic news do not. Emerging market currencies have become more sensitive to U.S. news in recent years. We also find that market sentiment could sway the impact of news on these currencies systematically, as good (bad) news seems to matter more when optimism (pessimism) prevails. Market uncertainty also interacts with macroeconomic news in a statistically significant way, but its role varies across currencies and news.
- Published
- 2009
50. Mexico’s Integration into NAFTA Markets: A View from Sectoral Real Exchange Rates
- Author
-
Rodolphe Blavy and Luciana Juvenal
- Subjects
Transaction cost ,Foreign exchange rates ,Exchange rate ,Autoregressive model ,Law of one price ,Econometrics ,Economics ,SETAR ,Monte Carlo integration ,Monetary economics ,International economics ,Relative price ,Free trade - Abstract
Using a threshold autoregressive model, we confirm the presence of nonlinearities in sectoral real exchange rate (SRER) dynamics across Mexico, Canada and the US in the pre-NAFTA and post-NAFTA periods. Measuring transaction costs using the estimated threshold bands, we find evidence that Mexico still faces higher transaction costs than their developed counterparts. Trade liberalization is associated with reduced transaction costs and lower relative price differentials among countries. Other determinants of transaction costs are distance and nominal exchange rate volatility. Our results show that the half-lives of SRERs shocks, calculated by Monte Carlo integration, imply much faster adjustment in the post-NAFTA period.
- Published
- 2009
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