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While the oil currency property is clearly established from a theoretical viewpoint, its existence is less clear-cut in the empirical literature. We investigate the reasons for this apparent puzzle by studying the time-varying nature of the relationship between real effective exchange rates of five oil exporters and the real price of oil in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the last two decades. Accordingly, we rely on a time-varying parameter VAR specification, which allows the responses of real exchange rates to different oil price shocks to evolve over time. We find that the reason of the mixed results obtained in the empirical literature is that oil currencies follow different hybrid models in the sense that oil countries' real exchange rates may be driven by one or several sources of oil price shocks that furthermore can vary over time. In addition to structural changes affecting oil countries, structural changes arising from the oil market itself through the various, time-varying sources of oil price shocks are found to be crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the conduct of monetary policy in some new member states of the EU and some EU candidates over the period 2000–13. We investigate why monetary policy has been ineffective in insulating domestic liquidity from capital inflows and why some countries from emerging Europe have been especially constrained in responding to the crisis. Our contribution is threefold. First, we show that countries with fixed exchange rate regimes have encountered significant obstacles to conducting monetary policy to cope with large capital inflows and credit booms during the period preceding the financial crisis. Second, we illuminate how pegged countries have been more constrained in responding to the global financial crisis than non-pegged economies. Third, countries with high currency mismatch and financial vulnerabilities seem unable to adopt monetary policy dedicated only to macroeconomic stabilisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global economic crisis confronted emerging European countries with abrupt external shocks, while adjustment mechanisms differed according to exchange rate regimes. ‘Fixers’ were forced to accept internal devaluation, while ‘floaters’ used the exchange rate as a shock absorber. Empirical research is based on six emerging European countries in January 2004–December 2010 and the January 2008–December 2010 crisis period. This article explores the real exchange rate as an adjustment mechanism variable, crisis transmission to the real economy, and foreign exchange intervention as a way of exchange rate management/defence. The relations investigated are observed using VAR models in order to distinguish between the groups of ‘floaters’ and ‘fixers’. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The paper analyzes the differences in managing exchange rate fluctuations in an inflation-targeting monetary framework in the case of (former) transition economies. Differences in managing the exchange rate fluctuations are identified according to the extent of managing as hard (dirty) versus soft managed floating, on the one hand, and according to direct managing via foreign exchange interventions and indirect managing via interest rate policy, on the other hand. Hard versus soft managed floating (sub)regimes are related to inflation-targeting (sub)regimes: hard managed floating with light inflation targeting and soft managed floating with strict or full-fledged inflation targeting. Two main motives for managing exchange rate fluctuations are emphasized in the paper: exchange rate pass-through and financial euroization. The direct and indirect managing of exchange rate fluctuations, exchange rate pass-through, and financial euroization, are investigated with vector autoregression (VAR)/vector error correction (VEC) models in the case of Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Serbia, in the period of combining flexible exchange rate regimes and an inflation-targeting monetary regime. The comparison of investigated indicators provides conclusions and lessons for the Serbian monetary authorities in the sense of conducting the current combination of managed exchange rate floating and an inflation-targeting regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies to what extent the diversity of exchange rate regimes within Mercosur exerts an influence on the feasibility of a monetary union in this area. A semi-structural vector autoregression model is built for each country, including a set of international and domestic variables. Based on impulse response functions and forecast error decomposition, we conclude that differences in exchange rate regimes explain significantly the divergences of economic dynamics triggered by foreign or domestic shocks. Second, we decompose the structural innovations generated by each country model into unobservable common and idiosyncratic components, using a state-space model. This last exercise, intended to assess the degree of policy coordination between the Mercado Común del Sur members, did not disclose any common component for the structural innovations generated by the three national models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores (former) transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, indirect and direct influences to the exchange rate, with variance decomposition of VAR/VEC model. The empirical results indicate that Polish monetary strategy toward higher monetary and exchange rate flexibility has been performed smoothly, gradually and planned, compared to the Slovak and, especially, Czech case. The comparison of three former transition economies with the Serbian case indicate strong and persistent exchange rate pass-through, low interest rate pass-through, significant indirect and direct influence to the exchange rate as potential obstacles for successful inflation targeting in the Republic of Serbia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the monetary consequences of the Latin American trade integration process. We consider a sample of five countries – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay – spanning the period 1991–2007. The main question raised pertains to the feasibility of a Monetary Union between L.A. economies. To this end, we study whether this set of countries is characterized by business cycle synchronization with the occurrence of common shocks, a strong similarity in the adjustment process and the convergence of policy responses. We focus especially our attention on two points. First, we try to determine to what extent international disturbances influence the domestic business cycles through trade and/or financial channels. Second, we analyze the impact of the adoption of different exchange rate regimes on the countries’ responses to shocks. All these features are the main issues in the literature relative to regional integration and OCA process. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]