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Research has substantiated that the presence of outliers in data usually introduces additional errors and biases, which typically leads to a degradation in the precision of volatility forecasts. However, correcting outliers can mitigate these adverse effects. This study corrects the additive outliers through a weighting method and let these corrected values to replace the original outliers. Then, the model parameters are re-estimated based on this new return series. This approach reduces the extent to which outliers distort volatility estimates, allowing the model to better adapt to market conditions and improving the accuracy of volatility forecasts. This study introduces this approach for the first time to generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) models, so as to establish an additional outliers corrected GARCH-MIDAS model (AO-GARCH-MIDAS). This pioneering approach marks a unique innovation. The research employs a diverse array of evaluation methods to validate the model's robustness and consistently demonstrates its dependable performance. Findings unequivocally reveal the substantial influence of outliers on the model's predictive capacity, with the AO-GARCH-MIDAS model exhibiting consistent superiority across all evaluation criteria. Additionally, while the GARCH model showcases stronger estimation capabilities compared to the GARCH-MIDAS model, the latter demonstrates heightened predictive prowess. Notably, regarding variable selection, the results underscore the greater predictive informational value inherent in realized volatility over other low-frequency factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a prevalent malignancy with a pressing need for improved therapeutic response and prognosis prediction. This study delves into a novel predictive model related to ferroptosis, a regulated cell death mechanism disrupting metabolic processes. Results: Single-cell sequencing data analysis identified subpopulations of HCC cells exhibiting activated ferroptosis and distinct gene expression patterns compared to normal tissues. Utilizing the LASSO-Cox algorithm, we constructed a model with 10 single-cell biomarkers associated with ferroptosis, namely STMN1, S100A10, FABP5, CAPG, RGCC, ENO1, ANXA5, UTRN, CXCR3, and ITM2A. Comprehensive analyses using these biomarkers revealed variations in immune infiltration, tumor mutation burden, drug sensitivity, and biological functional profiles between risk groups. Specific associations were established between particular immune cell subtypes and certain gene expression patterns. Treatment response analyses indicated potential benefits from anti-tumor immune therapy for the low-risk group and chemotherapy advantages for the high-risk group. Conclusions: The integration of this single-cell level model with clinicopathological features enabled accurate overall survival prediction and effective risk stratification in HCC patients. Our findings illuminate the potential of ferroptosis-related genes in tailoring therapy and prognosis prediction for HCC, offering novel insights into the intricate interplay among ferroptosis, immune response, and HCC progression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting of seasonal mortality patterns can provide useful information for planning health-care demand and capacity. Timely mortality forecasts are needed during severe winter spikes and/or pandemic waves to guide policy-making and public health decisions. In this article, we propose a flexible method for forecasting all-cause mortality in real time considering short-term changes in seasonal patterns within an epidemiologic year. All-cause mortality data have the advantage of being available with less delay than cause-specific mortality data. In this study, we use all-cause monthly death counts obtained from the national statistical offices of Denmark, France, Spain, and Sweden from epidemic seasons 2012-2013 through 2021-2022 to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The method forecasts deaths 1 month ahead, based on their expected ratio to the next month. Prediction intervals are obtained via bootstrapping. The forecasts accurately predict the winter mortality peaks before the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the method predicts mortality less accurately during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, it captures the aspects of later waves better than other traditional methods. The method is attractive for health researchers and governmental offices for aiding public health responses because it uses minimal input data, makes simple and intuitive assumptions, and provides accurate forecasts both during seasonal influenza epidemics and during novel virus pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The onset of depressive episodes is preceded by changes in mean levels of affective experiences, which can be detected using the exponentially weighted moving average procedure on experience sampling method (ESM) data. Applying the exponentially weighted moving average procedure requires sufficient baseline data from the person under study in healthy times, which is needed to calculate a control limit for monitoring incoming ESM data. It is, however, not trivial to obtain sufficient baseline data from a single person. We therefore investigate whether historical ESM data from healthy individuals can help establish an adequate control limit for the person under study via multilevel modeling. Specifically, we focus on the case in which there is very little baseline data available of the person under study (i.e., up to 7 days). This multilevel approach is compared with the traditional, person-specific approach, where estimates are obtained using the person's available baseline data. Predictive performance in terms of Matthews correlation coefficient did not differ much between the approaches; however, the multilevel approach was more sensitive at detecting mean changes. This implies that for low-cost and nonharmful interventions, the multilevel approach may prove particularly beneficial. Public Significance Statement: This study investigates early depression detection using the exponentially weighted moving average procedure with limited baseline data from the person under study in healthy times. The findings suggest that using historical data from other healthy individuals is useful and enhances sensitivity in detecting mean changes for the person under study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Predicted cardiac mass (PCM) has been well validated for size matching donor hearts to heart transplantation recipients. We hypothesized that cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) could be reflective of recipient-specific limits of oversizing, and sought to determine the utility of donor to recipient PCM ratio (PCMR) and CTR in predicting delayed chest closure after heart transplantation. Methods A retrospective review of prospectively collected data on 38 consecutive heart transplantations performed at our institution from 2017 to 2020 was performed. Donor and recipient PCM were estimated using Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis predictive models. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to determine the discriminatory power of the ratio of PCMR to CTR in predicting delayed sternal closure. Results Of the 38 patients, 71.1% (27/38) were male and the median age at transplantation was 58 (interquartile range [IQR]: 47–62) years. Ischemic cardiomyopathy was present in 31.6% of recipients (12/38). Median recipient CTR was 0.63 [IQR: 0.59–0.66]. Median donor to recipient PCMR was 1.07 [IQR: 0.96–1.19], which indicated 7% oversizing. Thirteen out of 38 (34.2%) underwent delayed sternal closure. Primary graft dysfunction occurred in 15.8% (6/38). PCMR/CTR showed good discriminatory power in predicting delayed sternal closure [area under the curve: 80.4% (65.3–95.6%)]. PCMR/CTR cut-off of 1.7 offered the best trade-off between the sensitivity (69.6%) and specificity (91.7%). Conclusion CTR could be helpful in guiding the recipient-specific extent of oversizing donor hearts. Maintaining the ratio of PCMR to CTR below 1.7 could avoid excessive oversizing of the donor heart. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies predicting Functional Connectivity (FC) from Structural Connectivity (SC) at individual level have been published in recent years, each promising increased performance and utility. We investigated three of these studies, analyzing whether the results truly represent a meaningful individual-level mapping from SC to FC. Using data from the Human Connectome Project shared accross the three studies, we constructed a predictor by averaging FC of training data and analyzed its performance in the same way. In each case, we found that group average FC is an equivalent or better predictor of individual FC than the predictive models in terms of raw prediction performance. Furthermore, we showed that additional analyses performed by the authors of the three studies, in which they attempt to show that their predicted FC has value beyond raw prediction performance, could also be reproduced using the group average FC predictor. This makes it unclear whether any of the three methods represent a meaningful individual-level predictive model. We conclude that either the methods are not appropriate for the data, that the sample size is too small, or that the data does not contain sufficient information to learn a mapping from SC to FC. We advise future individual-level studies to explicitly report results in comparison to the performance of the group average, and carefully demonstrate that their predictions contain meaningful individual-level information. Finally, we believe that investigating alternatives for the construction of SC and FC may improve the chances of developing a meaningful individual-level mapping from SC to FC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the development of a maize ear model and a predictive approach for kernel damage in maize threshing, integrating physical simulation and predictive analytics to understand better and forecast threshing-related damage. First, a maize ear model was developed to analyse kernel damage during threshing. Through the angle of repose experiments, the optimal number of spheres for the kernel model was established as 65. Tensile tests were conducted to evaluate the kernel-cob bond strength, revealing an average relative error in the bonding force of 8.71%. Vogel impact energy modelling was applied to the kernel threshing process to determine kernel damage. The correlation between the speed of seed grain movement and the occurrence of damage was analysed by post-processing to identify locations with frequent kernel damage in the drum. In-depth data analysis of kernel damage in the threshing drum further elucidates the inherent relationship between kernel velocity and damage extent. The study then focused on applying neural networks to predict damage rates. The comparative evaluation shows that the PSO-LSTM model has better prediction accuracy than LSTM and RNN models, with the PSO-LSTM network achieving an RMSE of 0.096, a R 2 of 99.96%, and a final damage rate of 2.41% in validation tests. Threshing experiments were conducted to verify the model, showing a 1.4% discrepancy between predicted and actual damage rates. This study proposes a kernel damage prediction model and provides new insights and directions for the structural design of threshing drums. • Applied Vogel model for threshing damage analysis. • Seeds are vulnerable to damage at the top and bottom of the drum. • PSO-LSTM outperforms LSTM, RNN in damage prediction. • Verified model accuracy with practical threshing experiments. • Identified optimal kernel number through repose angle tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The human brain is composed of multiple, discrete, functionally specialized regions that are interconnected to form large-scale distributed networks. Using advanced brain-imaging methods and machine-learning analytical approaches, recent studies have demonstrated that regional brain activity during the performance of various cognitive tasks can be accurately predicted from patterns of task-independent brain connectivity. In this review article, we first present evidence for the predictability of brain activity from structural connectivity (i.e., white matter connections) and functional connectivity (i.e., temporally synchronized task-free activations). We then discuss the implications of such predictions to clinical populations, such as patients diagnosed with psychiatric disorders or neurologic diseases, and to the study of brain–behavior associations. We conclude that connectivity may serve as an infrastructure that dictates brain activity, and we pinpoint several open questions and directions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aims of this study were to predict carcass and meat traits, as well as the chemical composition of the 9th to 11th rib sections of beef cattle from portable NIR spectra. The 9th to 11th rib section was obtained from 60 Nellore bulls and cull cows. NIR spectra were acquired at: P1 –center of Longissimus muscle; and P2 –subcutaneous fat cap. The models accurately estimated (P ≥ 0.083) all carcass and meat quality traits, except those for predicting red (a*) and yellow (b*) intensity from P1, and 12th-rib fat from P2. However, precision was highly variable among the models; those for the prediction of carcass pHu, 12th rib fat, toughness from P1, and those for 12th rib fat, a* and b* from P2 presented high precision (R2 ≥ 0.65 or CCC ≥ 0.63), whereas all other models evaluated presented moderate to low precision (R2 ≤ 0.39). Models built from P1 and P2 accurately estimated (P ≥ 0.066) the chemical composition of the meat plus fat, bones and, meat plus fat plus bones, except those for predicting the ether extract (EE) and crude protein (CP) of bones and the EE of Meat plus bones fraction from P2. However, precision was highly variable among the models (–0.08 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.86) of the 9th and 11th rib section. Those models for the prediction of dry matter (DM) and EE of the bones from P1; of EE from P1; and of EE, mineral matter (MM), CP from P2 of meat plus fat plus bones presented high precision (R2 ≥ 0.76 or CCC ≥ 0.62), whereas all other models evaluated presented moderate to low precision (R2 ≤ 0.45). Thus, models built from portable NIR spectra acquired at different points of the 9th to 11th rib section were recommended for predicting carcass and muscle quality traits as well as for predicting the chemical composition of this section of beef cattle. However, it is noteworthy, that the small sample size was one of the limitations of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large differences in projected future annual precipitation increases in North America exists across 27 CMIP6 models under four emission scenarios. These differences partly arise from weak representations of land-atmosphere interactions. Here we demonstrate an emergent constraint relationship between annual growth rates of future precipitation and growth rates of historical temperature. The original CMIP6 projections show 0.49% (SSP126), 0.98% (SSP245), 1.45% (SSP370) and 1.92% (SSP585) increases in precipitation per decade. Combining observed warming trends, the constrained results show that the best estimates of future precipitation increases are more likely to reach 0.40–0.48%, 0.83–0.93%, 1.29–1.45% and 1.70–1.87% respectively, implying an overestimated future precipitation increases across North America. The constrained results also are narrow the corresponding uncertainties (standard deviations) by 13.8–31.1%. The overestimated precipitation growth rates also reveal an overvalued annual growth rates in temperature (6.0–13.2% or 0.12–0.37°C) and in total evaporation (4.8–14.5%) by the original models' predictions. These findings highlight the important role of temperature for accurate climate predictions, which is important as temperature from current climate models' simulations often still have systematic errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Excessive zeros in multivariate count data are often observed in scenarios of biomedicine and public health. To provide a better analysis on this type of data, we first develop a marginalized multivariate zero‐inflated Poisson (MZIP) regression model to directly interpret the overall exposure effects on marginal means. Then, we define a multiple Pearson residual for our newly developed MZIP regression model by simultaneously taking heterogeneity and correlation into consideration. Furthermore, a new model averaging prediction method is introduced based on the multiple Pearson residual, and the asymptotical optimality of this model averaging prediction is proved. Simulations and two empirical applications in medicine are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1–9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43–1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The perception of a continuous phantom in a sensory domain in the absence of an external stimulus is explained as a maladaptive compensation of aberrant predictive coding, a proposed unified theory of brain functioning. If this were true, these changes would occur not only in the domain of the phantom percept but in other sensory domains as well. We confirm this hypothesis by using tinnitus (continuous phantom sound) as a model and probe the predictive coding mechanism using the established local–global oddball paradigm in both the auditory and visual domains. We observe that tinnitus patients are sensitive to changes in predictive coding not only in the auditory but also in the visual domain. We report changes in well-established components of event-related EEG such as the mismatch negativity. Furthermore, deviations in stimulus characteristics were correlated with the subjective tinnitus distress. These results provide an empirical confirmation that aberrant perceptions are a symptom of a higher-order systemic disorder transcending the domain of the percept. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a key guarantee and cornerstone of building quality, the importance of deformation prediction for deep foundation pits cannot be ignored. However, the deformation data of deep foundation pits have the characteristics of nonlinearity and instability, which will increase the difficulty of deformation prediction. In response to this characteristic and the difficulty of traditional deformation prediction methods to excavate the correlation between data of different time spans, the advantages of variational mode decomposition (VMD) in processing non-stationary series and a gated cycle unit (GRU) in processing complex time series data are considered. A predictive model combining particle swarm optimization (PSO), variational mode decomposition, and a gated cyclic unit is proposed. Firstly, the VMD optimized by the PSO algorithm was used to decompose the original data and obtain the Internet Message Format (IMF). Secondly, the GRU model optimized by PSO was used to predict each IMF. Finally, the predicted value of each component was summed with equal weight to obtain the final predicted value. The case study results show that the average absolute errors of the PSO-GRU prediction model on the original sequence, EMD decomposition, and VMD decomposition data are 0.502 mm, 0.462 mm, and 0.127 mm, respectively. Compared with the prediction mean square errors of the LSTM, GRU, and PSO-LSTM prediction models, the PSO-GRU on the PTB0 data of VMD decomposition decreased by 62.76%, 75.99%, and 53.14%, respectively. The PTB04 data decreased by 70%, 85.17%, and 69.36%, respectively. In addition, compared to the PSO-LSTM model, it decreased by 8.57% in terms of the model time. When the prediction step size increased from three stages to five stages, the mean errors of the four prediction models on the original data, EMD decomposed data, and VMD decomposed data increased by 28.17%, 3.44%, and 14.24%, respectively. The data decomposed by VMD are more conducive to model prediction and can effectively improve the accuracy of model prediction. An increase in the prediction step size will reduce the accuracy of the deformation prediction. The PSO-VMD-GRU model constructed has the advantages of reliable accuracy and a wide application range, and can effectively guide the construction of foundation pit engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a global ionospheric total electron content (TEC) maps (GIM) prediction model based on deep learning methods that is both straightforward and practical, meeting the requirements of various applications. The proposed model utilizes an encoder-decoder structure with a Convolution Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network and has a spatial resolution of 5° longitude and 2.5° latitude, with a time resolution of 1 h. We utilized the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) GIM dataset for 18 years from 2002 to 2019, without requiring any other external input parameters, to train the ConvLSTM models for forecasting GIM 1, 2, and 3 days in advance. Using the CODE GIM data from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2023 as the test dataset, the performance evaluation results show that the average root mean square errors (RMSE) for 1, 2 and 3 days of forecasts are 2.81 TECU, 3.16 TECU, and 3.41 TECU, respectively. These results show improved performance compared to the IRI-Plas model and CODE's 1-day forecast product c1pg, and comparable to CODE's 2-day forecast c2pg. The model's predictions get worse as the intensity of the storm increases, and the prediction error of the model increases with the lead time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent times, time-to-event data such as time to failure or death is routinely collected alongside high-throughput covariates. These high-dimensional bioinformatics data often challenge classical survival models, which are either infeasible to fit or produce low prediction accuracy due to overfitting. To address this issue, the focus has shifted towards introducing a novel approaches for feature selection and survival prediction. In this article, we propose a new hybrid feature selection approach that handles high-dimensional bioinformatics datasets for improved survival prediction. This study explores the efficacy of four distinct variable selection techniques: LASSO, RSF-vs, SCAD, and CoxBoost, in the context of non-parametric biomedical survival prediction. Leveraging these methods, we conducted comprehensive variable selection processes. Subsequently, survival analysis models—specifically CoxPH, RSF, and DeepHit NN—were employed to construct predictive models based on the selected variables. Furthermore, we introduce a novel approach wherein only variables consistently selected by a majority of the aforementioned feature selection techniques are considered. This innovative strategy, referred to as the proposed method, aims to enhance the reliability and robustness of variable selection, subsequently improving the predictive performance of the survival analysis models. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we compare the performance of the proposed approach with the existing LASSO, RSF-vs, SCAD, and CoxBoost techniques using various performance metrics including integrated brier score (IBS), concordance index (C-Index) and integrated absolute error (IAE) for numerous high-dimensional survival datasets. The real data applications reveal that the proposed method outperforms the competing methods in terms of survival prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents can profoundly impact human society, yet its seasonal prediction remains challenging, partly due to the limited prediction skill of dynamical models, especially over extratropical and high-latitude areas. Previous research has defined five indices associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns, which have important contributions to variations of summer SAT. This study further establishes a physically based empirical model (P–E model) using the Bayesian dynamic linear model method for the prediction of the indices, and uses the predicted indices to reconstruct the summer SAT anomaly field. Results show that the P–E model can reasonably well predict the five indices during 1950–2021. Combining this with the linear trend, the total summer SAT anomaly is also reconstructed. The high cross-validated hindcast skill for the period of 1950–2021 and independent forecast skill of 2022 indicate that the summer SAT over NH continents can be reasonably predicted by the P–E model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a spatiotemporal attention convolutional network (STAC-Pred) that leverages deep learning techniques to model the spatiotemporal features of tropical cyclones (TCs) and enable real-time prediction of their intensity. The proposed model employs dual branches to concurrently extract and integrate features from intensity heatmaps and satellite cloud imagery. Additionally, a residual attention (RA) module is integrated into the three-channel cloud imagery convolution process to automatically respond to high wind speed regions. TC's longitude, latitude, and radius of winds are injected into the multi-timepoint prediction model to assist in the prediction task. Furthermore, a rolling mechanism (RM) is employed to smooth the fluctuation of losses, achieving accurate prediction of TC intensity. We use several TC records to evaluate and validate the universality and effectiveness of the model. The results indicate that STAC-Pred achieves satisfactory performance. Specifically, the STAC-Pred model improves prediction performance by 47.69% and 28.26% compared to the baseline (official institutions) at 3- and 6-h intervals, respectively. Significance Statement: Tropical cyclones are one of the most deadly and damaging natural disasters in coastal areas worldwide. Early prediction can significantly reduce casualties and property losses. This study innovatively conducts dimensionality augmentation on one-dimensional intensity numerical sequences and proposes a new network model for rolling forecast of their future intensity. The proposed prototype model (not yet incorporating any atmospheric conditions) shows promising results for 3- and 6-h advance forecasts, providing valuable guidance for forecasters regarding real-time operational predictions of short-term tropical cyclone intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stock movement prediction is a challenging task due to its dynamic and nonlinear characteristics. Different information sources provide a rich variety of perspectives and dimensions, which can be integrated to understand market dynamics more comprehensively. However, different information may have complex interrelationships and nonlinear features, the deep fusion method can make the model have a powerful representation learning ability, and automatically learn complex features and relationships. Therefore, how to deeply fuse numerical data and text to achieve interaction between different types of information to complete more effective prediction tasks is a difficult problem. In this paper, we propose a stock movement prediction model based on deep fusion (SMPDF), including text and stock price feature extraction, feature fusion and feature processing, which can successfully fuse text and stock price. Experiments show that the proposed method has better modeling performance under the SMPDF framework and brings greater improvement in prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our success in predicting general community-level interaction patterns contrasts with our limitations to predict pairwise plant–pollinator interactions. Limitations to predict pairwise interactions come from multiple gaps in our understanding of plant–pollinator interactions, model implementations, and data. Different phenomenological and mechanistic modeling approaches attempt to predict plant–pollinator pairwise interactions, although we still lack an equitable comparison between these different approaches to accurately determine differences in their predictive ability. Model predictive ability could be improved by accounting for heterogeneous detection probabilities of interactions resulting from sampling effects, estimating interaction predictors with greater accuracy and building models with more plausible assumptions. Plant–pollinator interactions are ecologically and economically important, and, as a result, their prediction is a crucial theoretical and applied goal for ecologists. Although various analytical methods are available, we still have a limited ability to predict plant–pollinator interactions. The predictive ability of different plant–pollinator interaction models depends on the specific definitions used to conceptualize and quantify species attributes (e.g., morphological traits), sampling effects (e.g., detection probabilities), and data resolution and availability. Progress in the study of plant–pollinator interactions requires conceptual and methodological advances concerning the mechanisms and species attributes governing interactions as well as improved modeling approaches to predict interactions. Current methods to predict plant–pollinator interactions present ample opportunities for improvement and spark new horizons for basic and applied research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of typhoon tracks in the Northwest Pacific is key to reducing human casualties and property damage. Traditional numerical forecasting models often require substantial computational resources, are high-cost, and have significant limitations in prediction speed. This research is dedicated to using deep learning methods to address the shortcomings of traditional methods. Our method (AFR-SimVP) is based on a large-kernel convolutional spatio-temporal prediction network combined with multi-feature fusion for forecasting typhoon tracks in the Northwest Pacific. In order to more effectively suppress the effect of noise in the dataset to enhance the generalization ability of the model, we use a multi-branch structure, incorporate an atmospheric reconstruction subtask, and propose a second-order smoothing loss to further improve the prediction ability of the model. More importantly, we innovatively propose a multi-time-step typhoon prediction network (HTAFR-SimVP) that does not use the traditional recurrent neural network family of models at all. Instead, through fine-to-coarse hierarchical temporal feature extraction and dynamic self-distillation, multi-time-step prediction is achieved using only a single regression network. In addition, combined with atmospheric field reconstruction, the network achieves integrated prediction for multiple tasks, which greatly enhances the model's range of applications. Experiments show that our proposed network achieves optimal performance in the 24 h typhoon track prediction task. Our regression network outperforms previous recurrent network-based typhoon prediction models in the multi-time-step prediction task and also performs well in multiple integration tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Granular media is ubiquitous, playing a vital role in a diverse set of applications. The complex microstructure of granular media results from assorted particle shapes, morphologies, and packings, make it difficult to predict its macroscopic behavior. Under compression, these complex microstructures enable highly anisotropic and heterogenous behaviors, including creation of highly-loaded particles (i.e. force chains) supported by clusters of minimally-loaded particles. While many existing constitutive models relate state variables describing microscale behavior to continuum properties, these models do not generally consider the mesoscale interactions between the force chain network and minimally-loaded particles. Here, we develop a micromechanics model that connects micro-scale force chain mechanics to macro-scale mechanical behavior through explicit consideration of the interaction between force chains and minimally-loaded particles. We first examine the elastic behavior of a force chain using a spring model, explicitly considering the mesoscale interactions between the force-chains and surrounding regions. We then construct an equivalent inclusion problem to calculate macroscopic mechanical response as analytical functions of microscopic properties, with proper consideration of mesoscale interactions. We present our calibration and validation approaches, showing the model's predictive abilities. Finally, we examine the effect of relevant microscopic quantities on macroscopic response, demonstrating the importance of these mesoscale interactions on bulk deviatoric behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

MiRNA (microRNA)‐disease association prediction has essential applications for early disease screening. The process of traditional biological experimental validation is both time‐consuming and expensive. However, as artificial intelligence technology continues to advance, computational methods have become efficient tools for predicting miRNA‐disease associations. These methods often rely on the combination of multiple sources of association data and require improved feature mining. This study proposes a dynamic graph attention‐based association prediction model, DGAMDA, which combines feature mapping and dynamic graph attention mechanisms through feature mining on a single miRNA‐disease association network. DGAMDA effectively solves the problems of feature heterogeneity and inadequate feature mining by previous static graph attention mechanisms and achieves high‐precision feature mining and association scoring prediction. We conducted a five‐fold cross‐validation experiment and obtained the mean values of Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F1‐score, which were.8986,.8869,.9115, and.8984, respectively. Our proposed model outperforms other advanced models in terms of experimental results, demonstrating its effectiveness in feature mining and association prediction based on a single association network. In addition, our model can also be used to predict miRNAs associated with unknown diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Therapeutic management, benefit/risk balance and delivery planning of suspected IUGR is sometimes difficult. • This study introduces an innovative predictive model for adverse neonatal adaptation in fetuses with severe intrauterine growth restriction after 34 gestational weeks. • Demonstrating feasibility, the model offers a quantifiable risk assessment with satisfactory performance and acceptable uncertainty. • This model could potentially aid decision-making and couple information. To establish a predictive model for adverse immediate neonatal adaptation (INA) in fetuses with suspected severe fetal growth restriction (FGR) after 34 gestational weeks (GW). Methods. We conducted a retrospective observational study at the University Hospitals of Strasbourg between 2000 and 2020, including 1,220 women with a singleton pregnancy and suspicion of severe FGR who delivered from 34 GW. The primary outcome (composite) was INA defined as Apgar 5-minute score <7, arterial pH <7.10, immediate transfer to pediatrics, or the need for resuscitation at birth. We developed and tested a logistic regression predictive model. Results. Adverse INA occurred in 316 deliveries. The model included six features available before labor: parity, gestational age, diabetes, middle cerebral artery Doppler, cerebral-placental inversion, onset of labor. The model could predict individual risk of adverse INA with confidence interval at 95 %. Taking an optimal cutoff threshold of 32 %, performances were: sensitivity 66 %; specificity 83 %; positive and negative predictive values 60 % and 87 % respectively, and area under the curve 78 %. Discussion. The predictive model showed good performances and a proof of concept that INA could be predicted with pre-labor characteristics, and needs to be investigated further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Next activity prediction of business processes (BPs) provides valid execution information of ongoing (i.e., unfinished) process instances, which enables process executors to rationally allocate resources and detect process deviations in advance. Current researches on next activity prediction, however, concentrate mostly on model construction without in‐depth analysis of historical event logs. In this article, we are dedicated to proposing an approach to forecast the next activity effectively in BPs. After in‐depth analysis of historical event logs, three types of candidate activity attributes are defined and calculated as additional input for the prediction based on three essential elements, that is, frequent activity patterns, trace similarity and position information. Furthermore, we construct an effective hybrid prediction model combining the popular convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short‐term memory (Bi‐LSTM) with self‐attention mechanism. Specifically, CNN is used to extract the temporal features before importing into Bi‐LSTM for accurate prediction, and self‐attention mechanism is applied to strengthen features that have decisive effects on the prediction results. Comparison experiments on four real‐life datasets demonstrate that our hybrid model with selected attributes achieves better performance on next activity prediction than single models, and improves the prediction accuracy by 2.98%, 6.05%, 2.70% and 5.26% on Helpdesk, Sepsis, BPIC2013 Incidents and BPIC2012O datasets than the state‐of‐the‐art methods, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The layout and configuration of urban infrastructure are essential for the orderly operation and healthy development of cities. With the promotion and popularization of new energy vehicles, the modeling and prediction of charging pile usage and allocation have garnered significant attention from governments and enterprises. Short-term demand forecasting for charging piles is crucial for their efficient operation. However, existing prediction models lack a discussion on the appropriate time window, resulting in limitations in station-level predictions. Recognizing the temporal nature of charging pile occupancy, this paper proposes a novel stacked-LSTM model called attention-SLSTM that integrates an attention mechanism to predict the charging demand of electric vehicles at the station level over the next few hours. To evaluate its performance, this paper compares it with several methods. The experimental results demonstrate that the attention-SLSTM model outperforms both LSTM and stacked-LSTM models. Deep learning methods generally outperform traditional time series forecasting methods. In the test set, MAE is 1.6860, RMSE is 2.5040, and MAPE is 9.7680%. Compared to the stacked-LSTM model, MAE and RMSE are reduced by 4.7%and 5%, respectively; while MAPE value decreases by 1.3%, making it superior to LSTM overall. Furthermore, subsequent experiments compare prediction performance among different charging stations, which confirms that the attention-SLSTM model exhibits excellent predictive capabilities within a six-step (2 h) window. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable and accurate wind-speed forecasts significantly impact the efficiency of wind power utilization and the safety of power systems. In addressing the performance enhancement of transformer models in short-term wind-speed forecasting, a multi-step prediction model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), temporal convolutional network (TCN), and a transformer is proposed. Initially, the Dung Beetle Optimizer (DBO) is utilized to optimize VMD for decomposing non-stationary wind-speed series data. Subsequently, the TCN is used to extract features from the input sequences. Finally, the processed data are fed into the transformer model for prediction. The effectiveness of this model is validated by comparison with six other prediction models across three datasets, demonstrating its superior accuracy in short-term wind-speed forecasting. Experimental findings from three distinct datasets reveal that the developed model achieves an average improvement of 52.1% for R2. To the best of our knowledge, this places our model at the leading edge of wind-speed prediction for 8 h and 12 h forecasts, demonstrating MSEs of 1.003 and 0.895, MAEs of 0.754 and 0.665, and RMSEs of 1.001 and 0.946, respectively. Therefore, this research offers significant contributions through a new framework and demonstrates the utility of the transformer in effectively predicting short-term wind speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely and accurate forecasting of well production in tight gas reservoirs is of paramount importance for comprehensive field development and financial decision-making. Despite the application of deep learning (DL) models in constructing predictive frameworks, their intricate nature and limited interpretability present challenges for petroleum engineers, hindering their understanding of learned inference mechanisms and trust in predictions. This study advocates for the adoption of interpretable DL solutions, incorporating SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to provide explicit elucidations of a prediction model by implemented by gated recurrent networks. The method's efficacy is substantiated using data from the Tao2 gas field in the Ordos Basin, China. The outcomes underscore the model's exceptional predictive capabilities. Leveraging the SHAP method for global interpretation provides valuable insights into the collective impact of various factors. Simultaneously, employing SHAP for local interpretation furnishes personalized explanations for well productivity predictions. The findings gleaned from this research are poised to enhance well operations and field development planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Long-term multi-environment trials (METs) could improve genomic prediction models for plant breeding programs by better representing the target population of environments (TPE). However, METs are generally highly unbalanced because genotypes are routinely dropped from trials after a few years. Furthermore, in the presence of genotype × environment interaction (GEI), selection of the environments to include in a prediction set becomes critical to represent specific TPEs. Aims: The goals of this study were to compare strategies for modelling GEI in genomic prediction, using large METs from oat (Avena sativa L.) breeding programs in the Midwest United States, and to develop a variety decision tool for farmers and plant breeders. Methods: The performance of genotypes in TPEs was predicted by using different strategies for handling GEI in genomic prediction models including systematic and/or random GEI components. These strategies were also used to build the variety decision tool for farmers. Key results: Genomic prediction for unknown genotypes, locations and years within TPEs had moderate to high predictive ability, accuracy and reliability. Modelling GEI was beneficial in small, but not in large, mega-environments. The latest 3 years were highly predictive of performance in an upcoming year for most years but not for years with unusual weather patterns. High predictive ability, accuracy and reliability were obtained when large datasets were used in TPEs. Conclusions: Deployment of historical datasets can be accomplished through meaningful delineation and prediction for TPEs. Implications: We have shown the performance of a simple modelling strategy for handling prediction for TPEs when deploying large historical datasets. Rankings of genotypic performance may change from one environment to the next, creating genotype × environment interaction (GEI), which can impact genomic prediction and complicate identification of superior genotypes. We compared strategies for predicting the performance of individuals in the presence of GEI. The results provide useful tools for the optimisation of training populations and testing environments for the prediction of individuals in the targeted populations of environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vitamin A deficiency remains prevalent on a global scale, including in regions where maize constitutes a high percentage of human diets. One solution for alleviating this deficiency has been to increase grain concentrations of provitamin A carotenoids in maize (Zea mays ssp. mays L.)—an example of biofortification. The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) developed a Carotenoid Association Mapping panel of 380 inbred lines adapted to tropical and subtropical environments that have varying grain concentrations of provitamin A and other health-beneficial carotenoids. Several major genes have been identified for these traits, 2 of which have particularly been leveraged in marker-assisted selection. This project assesses the predictive ability of several genomic prediction strategies for maize grain carotenoid traits within and between 4 environments in Mexico. Ridge Regression-Best Linear Unbiased Prediction, Elastic Net, and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces had high predictive abilities for all tested traits (β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, provitamin A, lutein, and zeaxanthin) and outperformed Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. Furthermore, predictive abilities were higher when using genome-wide markers rather than only the markers proximal to 2 or 13 genes. These findings suggest that genomic prediction models using genome-wide markers (and assuming equal variance of marker effects) are worthwhile for these traits even though key genes have already been identified, especially if breeding for additional grain carotenoid traits alongside β-carotene. Predictive ability was maintained for all traits except lutein in between-environment prediction. The TASSEL (Trait Analysis by aSSociation, Evolution, and Linkage) Genomic Selection plugin performed as well as other more computationally intensive methods for within-environment prediction. The findings observed herein indicate the utility of genomic prediction methods for these traits and could inform their resource-efficient implementation in biofortification breeding programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of Mach numbers is of paramount importance in wind tunnel experiments. While ensemble prediction models have shown promising performance compared with single-model approaches, existing ensemble methods often prioritize ensemble generation while neglecting the critical aspect of ensemble fusion. This oversight has led to suboptimal precision in Mach number prediction. In this paper, we address this issue by proposing a novel approach that leverages metalearning for ensemble fusion. By incorporating metalearning techniques, our framework effectively combines the strengths of multiple base learners to enhance predictive accuracy. Extensive experiments conducted on a comprehensive data set demonstrate the superiority of our proposed approach over traditional ensemble methods. The results highlight the significance of ensemble fusion in achieving high-precision Mach number prediction in wind tunnel experiments. This research contributes to the advancement of ensemble modeling by emphasizing the importance of fusion techniques and provides valuable insights for improving ensemble prediction models in various domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To explore the relationship between Fuhrman grade of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and the DDD score. Methods: We reviewed the records of 527 nonmetastatic RCC patients. Demographic, clinical, and pathologic characteristics were reviewed. Binary logistic regression was used to explore the independent risk factors for high‐grade RCC (HGRCC). Results: Sex, BMI (Body Mass Index), RNS, and DDD score were significantly correlated with HGRCC. Based on these independent risk factors, we constructed two predictive models integrating the RNS and DDD scores with sex and BMI to predict tumor grade. The calibration curves of the predictive model showed good agreement between the observations and predictions. The concordance indexes (C‐indexes) of the predictive models were 0.768 (95% CI, 0.713–0.824), and 0.809 (95% CI, 0.759–0.859). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to compare the predictive power of the nomograms, and the prediction model including the DDD score had better prognostic ability (p = 0.01). Conclusions: This study found that RNS, DDD score, BMI, and sex were independent predictors of HGRCC. We developed effective nomograms integrating the above risk factors to predict HGRCC. Of note, the nomogram including the DDD score achieves better prediction ability for HGRCC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) are an important tool for predicting ecosystem diversity and function under global change. The growing complexity of modern JSDMs necessitates careful model selection tailored to the challenges of community prediction under novel conditions (i.e., transferable models). Common approaches to evaluate the performance of JSDMs for community‐level prediction are based on individual species predictions that do not account for the species correlation structures inherent in JSDMs. Here, we formalize a Bayesian model selection approach that accounts for species correlation structures and apply it to compare the community‐level predictive performance of alternative JSDMs across broad environmental gradients emulating transferable applications. Innovation: We connect the evaluation of JSDM predictions to Bayesian model selection theory under which the log score is the preferred performance measure for probabilistic prediction. We define the joint log score for community‐level prediction and distinguish it from more commonly applied JSDM evaluation metrics. We then apply the joint community log score to evaluate predictions of 1918 out‐of‐sample boreal forest understory communities spanning 39 species generated using a novel multinomial JSDM framework that supports alternative species correlation structures: independent, compositional dependence and residual dependence. Main conclusions: The best performing JSDM included all observed environmental variables and compositional dependence modelled using a multinomial likelihood. The addition of flexible residual species correlations improved model predictions only within JSDMs applying a reduced set of environmental variables highlighting potential confounding between unobserved environmental conditions and residual species dependence. The best performing JSDM was consistent across successional and bioclimatic gradients regardless of whether interest was in species‐ or community‐level prediction. Our study demonstrates the utility of the joint community log score to compare the predictive performance of JSDMs and highlights the importance of accounting for species dependence when interest is in community composition under novel conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate PV power forecasting is becoming a mandatory task to integrate the PV system into the power grid, schedule it, and ensure the safety of the power grid. In this paper, a novel model for PV power prediction using AP-LSTNet has been proposed. It consists of a combination of affinity propagation clustering and long-term and short-term time series network models. First, the affinity propagation algorithm is used to divide the regionally distributed photovoltaic station clusters into different seasons. The Pearson correlation coefficient is used to determine the strong correlation between meteorological factors of photovoltaic power, and the bilinear interpolation method is used to encrypt the meteorological data of the corresponding photovoltaic station cluster. Furthermore, LSTNet is used to mine the long-term and short-term temporal and spatial dependence of photovoltaic power, and meteorological factor series and linear components of auto-regression are superimposed to realize the simultaneous prediction of multiple photovoltaic stations in the group. Finally, PV power plants in five cities, Wuwei, Jinchang, Zhangye, Jiuquan, and Jiayuguan in the Hexi region of Gansu Province, China, will be selected to test the proposed model. The experimental comparison shows that the prediction model achieves high prediction accuracy and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In real-world classification problems, it is important to build accurate prediction models and provide information that can improve decision-making. Decision-support tools are often based on network models, and this article uses information encoded by social networks to solve the problem of employer turnover. However, understanding the factors behind black-box prediction models can be challenging. Our question was about the predictability of employee turnover, given information from the multilayer network that describes collaborations and perceptions that assess the performance of organizations that indicate the success of cooperation. Our goal was to develop an accurate prediction procedure, preserve the interpretability of the classification, and capture the wide variety of specific reasons that explain positive cases. After a feature engineering, we identified variables with the best predictive power using decision trees and ranked them based on their added value considering their frequent co-occurrence. We applied the Random Forest using the SMOTE balancing technique for prediction. We calculated the SHAP values to identify the variables that contribute the most to individual predictions. As a last step, we clustered the sample based on SHAP values to fine-tune the explanations for quitting due to different background factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling neuron responses to stimuli can shed light on next‐generation technologies such as brain‐chip interfaces. Furthermore, high‐performing models can serve to help formulate hypotheses and reveal the mechanisms underlying neural responses. Here the state‐of‐the‐art computational model is presented for predicting single neuron responses to natural stimuli in the primary visual cortex (V1) of mice. The algorithm incorporates object positions and assembles multiple models with different train‐validation data, resulting in a 15%–30% improvement over the existing models in cross‐subject predictions and ranking first in the SENSORIUM 2022 Challenge, which benchmarks methods for neuron‐specific prediction based on thousands of images. Importantly, The model reveals evidence that the spatial organizations of V1 are conserved across mice. This model will serve as an important noninvasive tool for understanding and utilizing the response patterns of primary visual cortex neurons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To build and validate an early risk prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) based on first-trimester electronic medical records including maternal demographic and clinical risk factors. Methods: To develop and validate a GDM prediction model, two datasets were used in this retrospective study. One included data of 14,015 pregnant women from Máxima Medical Center (MMC) in the Netherlands. The other was from an open-source database nuMoM2b including data of 10,038 nulliparous pregnant women, collected in the USA. Widely used maternal demographic and clinical risk factors were considered for modeling. A GDM prediction model based on elastic net logistic regression was trained from a subset of the MMC data. Internal validation was performed on the remaining MMC data to evaluate the model performance. For external validation, the prediction model was tested on an external test set from the nuMoM2b dataset. Results: An area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.81 was achieved for early prediction of GDM on the MMC test data, comparable to the performance reported in previous studies. While the performance markedly decreased to an AUC of 0.69 when testing the MMC-based model on the external nuMoM2b test data, close to the performance trained and tested on the nuMoM2b dataset only (AUC = 0.70). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the mesoscale eddies in the ocean is crucial for advancing our understanding of the ocean and climate systems. Establishing spatio-temporal correlation among input data is a significant challenge in mesoscale eddy prediction tasks, especially for deep learning techniques. In this paper, we first present a deep learning solution based on a video prediction model to capture the spatio-temporal correlation and predict future sea surface height data accurately. To enhance the performance of the model, we introduced a novel metadata embedding module that utilizes neural networks to fuse remote sensing metadata with input data, resulting in increased accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, our model outperforms the state-of-the-art method for predicting sea level anomalies. Consequently, a mesoscale eddy detection algorithm will be applied to the predicted sea surface height data to generate mesoscale eddies in future. The proposed solution achieves competitive results, indicating that the prediction error for the eddy center position is 5.6 km for a 3-day prediction and 13.6 km for a 7-day prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short‐term load forecasting is the basis of power system operation and analysis and is of great significance for the stable operation of power systems. To solve the problems of insufficient mining of the intrinsic information of load data, randomness, and non‐linearity, and to improve the accuracy of load prediction, the authors propose a short‐term power load prediction model based on empirical wavelet transform (EWT) decomposition and the temporal convolutional network (TCN). First, the Pearson coefficient is used to eliminate the less relevant influencing factors to reduce the complexity of the model. Then, the EWT algorithm is used to decompose the original load signal to fully exploit the load data time domain and frequency domain information, while solving the problems of non‐linearity and randomness. Finally, the decomposed subsequences are input to the TCN network for prediction superposition to obtain the final results. The experimental results show that, compared with the single models TCN, gated recurrent units (GRU), and long short‐term memory (LSTM), and the hybrid models EWT‐GRU, EWT‐LSTM, and VMD‐TCN, the R2 of the short‐term power load forecasting model based on EWT‐TCN is improved by 0.2099%, 0.2519%, 0.3453%, 0.0334%, 0.1766%, and 0.1228%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to develop a predictive model for intensive care unit (ICU) admission by using heart rate variability (HRV) data. This retrospective case–control study used two datasets (emergency department [ED] patients admitted to the ICU, and patients in the operating room without ICU admission) from a single academic tertiary hospital. HRV metrics were measured every 5 min using R-peak-to-R-peak (R-R) intervals. We developed a generalized linear mixed model to predict ICU admission and assessed the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated from the coefficients. We analyzed 610 (ICU: 122; non-ICU: 488) patients, and the factors influencing the odds of ICU admission included a history of diabetes mellitus (OR [95% CI]: 3.33 [1.71–6.48]); a higher heart rate (OR [95% CI]: 3.40 [2.97–3.90] per 10-unit increase); a higher root mean square of successive R-R interval differences (RMSSD; OR [95% CI]: 1.36 [1.22–1.51] per 10-unit increase); and a lower standard deviation of R-R intervals (SDRR; OR [95% CI], 0.68 [0.60–0.78] per 10-unit increase). The final model achieved an AUC of 0.947 (95% CI: 0.906–0.987). The developed model effectively predicted ICU admission among a mixed population from the ED and operating room. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of the defect prediction model by using balanced and imbalanced datasets makes a big impact on the discovery of future defects. Current resampling techniques only address the imbalanced datasets without taking into consideration redundancy and noise inherent to the imbalanced datasets. To address the imbalance issue, we propose Kernel Crossover Oversampling (KCO), an oversampling technique based on kernel analysis and crossover interpolation. Specifically, the proposed technique aims to generate balanced datasets by increasing data diversity in order to reduce redundancy and noise. KCO first represents multidimensional features into two-dimensional features by employing Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA). KCO then divides the plotted data distribution by deploying spectral clustering to select the best region for interpolation. Lastly, KCO generates the new defect data by interpolating different data templates within the selected data clusters. According to the prediction evaluation conducted, KCO consistently produced F-scores ranging from 21% to 63% across six datasets, on average. According to the experimental results presented in this study, KCO provides more effective prediction performance than other baseline techniques. The experimental results show that KCO within project and cross project predictions especially consistently achieve higher performance of F-score results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has been present globally for more than three years, and cross-border transmission has played an important role in its spread. Currently, most predictions of COVID-19 spread are limited to a country (or a region), and models for cross-border transmission risk assessment remain lacking. Information on imported COVID-19 cases reported from March 2020 to June 2022 was collected from the National Health Commission of China, and COVID-19 epidemic data of the countries of origin of the imported cases were collected on data websites such as WHO and Our World in Data. It is proposed to establish a prediction model suitable for the prevention and control of overseas importation of COVID-19. Firstly, the SIR model was used to fit the epidemic infection status of the countries where the cases were exported, and most of the r2 values of the fitted curves obtained were above 0.75, which indicated that the SIR model could well fit different countries and the infection status of the region. After fitting the epidemic infection status data of overseas exporting countries, on this basis, a SIR-multiple linear regression overseas import risk prediction combination model was established, which can predict the risk of overseas case importation, and the established overseas import risk model overall P <0.05, the adjusted R2 = 0.7, indicating that the SIR-multivariate linear regression overseas import risk prediction combination model can obtain better prediction results. Our model effectively estimates the risk of imported cases of COVID-19 from abroad. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is responsible for the majority of acute lower respiratory infections in infants and can affect also older age groups. Restrictions linked to the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and their subsequent lifting caused a change in the dynamics of RSV circulation. It is therefore fundamental to monitor RSV seasonal trends and to be able to predict its seasonal peak to be prepared to the next RSV epidemics. Methods: We performed a retrospective descriptive study on laboratory-confirmed RSV infections from Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital in Rome from 1st January 2018 to 31st December 2022. Data on RSV-positive respiratory samples (n = 3,536) and RSV-confirmed hospitalizations (n = 1,895) on patients aged 0–18 years were analyzed. In addition to this, a SARIMA (Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) forecasting model was developed to predict the next peak of RSV. Results: Findings show that, after the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 pandemic season, where RSV circulation was almost absent, RSV infections presented with an increased and anticipated peak compared to pre-pandemic seasons. While mostly targeting infants below 1 year of age, there was a proportional increase in RSV infections and hospitalizations in older age groups in the post-pandemic period. A forecasting model built using RSV weekly data from 2018 to 2022 predicted the RSV peaks of 2023, showing a reasonable level of accuracy (MAPE 33%). Additional analysis indicated that the peak of RSV cases is expected to be reached after 4–5 weeks from case doubling. Conclusion: Our study provides epidemiological evidence on the dynamics of RSV circulation before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the potential of combining surveillance and forecasting to promote preparedness for the next RSV epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While there has been extensive research on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and its associated factors in Iran, a significant gap exists in studies predicting its future trends. Our study aimed to thoroughly report CRC incidence across Iran from 2014 to 2017, by sex, age, and geographical regions, and provide a projection for 2025. Methods: This retrospective study utilized data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR). Patients with the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd Edition (ICD-O-3) codes C18 to C21 were included. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR), was calculated per 100 000 individuals annually, and crude incidence rates were retrieved for various demographic groups and years. Results: Between 2014 and 2017, a total of 43 580 new CRC cases (55.96% males) were registered. Men exhibited an ASR of 134.45, while women's ASR was 94.85. The highest ASRs were observed in Tehran, Qom, and Ilam (18.99, 18.26, and 18.06, respectively). Incidence rates surpassed 20 after age 50 for both genders, reaching their peak within the 80-84 age group. Adenocarcinoma was the most frequent histological type of CRC in nearly all provinces. Case numbers and ASRs are projected to continuously rise until 2025, with a predominance of male cases. Conclusion: The anticipated increase in CRC incidence in Iran emphasizes the need for additional studies to better identify risk factors. Furthermore, implementing screening programs is recommended for individuals at a higher risk of CRC, including men, the elderly population, and those residing in regions with a notable prevalence of CRC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time of rainy season onset is crucial information for policymakers, especially in densely populated regions such as the Yangtze River basin (YRB) in China. In this study, we proposed a new grid-based index to objectively detect mei-yu onset timing using reanalysis data and model predictions, and then we identified the key processes via which intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) affects the YRB mei-yu onset and its subseasonal predictability based on scale-decomposed moisture analysis. Climatologically, propagation of an ISO anticyclonic anomaly toward East China supports the moisture convergence required for rainy season onset over the YRB via interaction with the seasonal-mean moisture component. In the years of early mei-yu onset, the ISO was enhanced earlier in May and favored the moisture convergence anomaly in late May–early June, when the mei-yu started. In contrast, the enhanced ISO and associated moistening processes were observed later in June–early July in the years with delayed onset. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Centers for Environmental Prediction models show skillful prediction of mei-yu onset at forecast lead times of 5–6 pentads, whereas the China Meteorological Administration model has limited skill of 3 pentads. The differences in model prediction skill are related to the accuracy of predicted moisture convergence anomalies induced by the ISO. The prediction bias in mei-yu onset timing (early or delayed) is also connected to bias in the occurrence timing of enhanced intraseasonal perturbations, suggesting the vital role of ISO in YRB mei-yu onset on the subseasonal time scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a method of beforehand prediction of electric equipment faults based on chain-linked recurrent neural network algorithm, which takes the operating parameters of power equipment and other relevant environmental factors as inputs, and takes the fault characteristics as output judgment marks, and constructs a machine learning training model to realize the prediction of power equipment faults. The neural network algorithm adopted in this paper adopts a tree structure. Each sub-node can transfer information with its multiple superior nodes, so that the correlation between the data of the front and back nodes can be obtained, which meets the needs of the equipment fault prediction model. Considering that the occurrence of power transformer faults is sudden and greatly affected by changes in the surrounding environment, the input of prediction algorithms should consider more environmental factors. This method takes the historical data of various parameters including meteorological phenomena, geography data, and temperature of adjacent equipment and facilities as the training sample set, improves the learning model, gives the trend curve of each index, and gives a prompt at its threshold to ensure the prediction accuracy and give the index prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pedestrian trajectory prediction plays a crucial role in autonomous driving, as its accuracy directly affects the autonomous driving system's comprehension of the environment and subsequent decision-making processes. Current trajectory prediction methods tend to oversimplify pedestrians to mere point coordinates, utilizing positional information to infer interactions among individuals while overlooking the temporal correlations between them, thereby excessively simplifying pedestrian characteristics. To address the aforementioned issues, this paper proposes a trajectory prediction model for autonomous driving applications, that takes into account both pedestrian motion characteristics and scene interaction. The model optimizes the LSTM unit structure twice, serving to learn correlations among long trajectories of pedestrians and to integrate multiple forms of information into the neighborhood interaction module. Furthermore, our model introduces dual attention mechanisms for individuals and scenes, focusing on the key motion points of individual pedestrians and their interactive behavior with others in busy scenarios. The efficacy of the model was validated on the MOT16 pedestrian dataset and the Daimler pedestrian path prediction dataset, outperforming mainstream methods with 8% and 10% reductions in Average Displacement Error and Final Displacement Error respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting human trajectories poses a significant challenge due to the complex interplay of pedestrian behavior, which is influenced by environmental layout and interpersonal dynamics. This complexity is further compounded by variations in scene density. To address this, we introduce a novel dataset from the Festival of Lights in Lyon 2022, characterized by a wide range of densities (0.2–2.2 ped/ m 2 ). Our analysis demonstrates that density-based classification of data can significantly enhance the accuracy of predictive algorithms. We propose an innovative two-stage processing approach, surpassing current state-of-the-art methods in performance. Additionally, we utilize a collision-based error metric to better account for collisions in trajectory predictions. Our findings indicate that the effectiveness of this error metric is density-dependent, offering prediction insights. This study not only advances our understanding of human trajectory prediction in dense environments, but also presents a methodological framework for integrating density considerations into predictive modeling, thereby improving algorithmic performance and collision avoidance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]