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Context: Our world is characterized by a dynamic landscape of variations, complexities, uncertainties, and ambiguities (VUCA). These elements manifest in various domains, including politics, economics, communication, information, science, and research, all of which significantly impact our lives. It is crucial for policymakers and managers to adopt a forward-thinking approach to comprehend these VUCA elements and their implications for the future. The future will undoubtedly differ from the present and the past. However, humans possess an inherent desire to understand and anticipate the future, particularly in the face of uncertainty. Therefore, exploring and understanding the future is not just a curiosity, but a necessity. Futures Studies can serve as a valuable tool in this context, enabling us to efficiently leverage opportunities and resources to navigate the chaotic environment. Review studies play a pivotal role in this process by reviewing existing work and synthesizing knowledge in a specific field. This study aims to collate findings related to the key concepts of Futures Research, thereby contributing to our collective understanding and preparation for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Many African countries have developed policies to reform their education system in order to widen participation in higher education. To achieve this, open, online and distance education based models have been advocated as the most viable delivery tools in expanding access to higher education. However, the policy analysis of Kenya, Rwanda and Zambia revealed that the integration of open, online and distance education in these countries’ education systems is inadequate. The purpose of this study is to analyse policies in order to determine why policy goals are not achieved and how the present reality and the past knowledge impacts on the desired outcome. The future research methods of forecasting is used because it looks at policy interventions with the aim of assisting us to understand probable development in education that may have led to the weak implementation of the policies.

Many African countries have developed policies to reform their education system in order to widen participation in higher education. To achieve this, open, online and distance education based models have been advocated as the most viable delivery tools in expanding access to higher education. However, the policy analysis of Kenya, Rwanda and Zambia revealed that the integration of open, online and distance education in these countries' education systems is inadequate. The purpose of this study is to analyse policies in order to determine why policy goals are not achieved and how the present reality and the past knowledge impacts on the desired outcome. The future research methods of forecasting is used because it looks at policy interventions with the aim of assisting us to understand probable development in education that may have led to the weak implementation of the policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The commercial real estate market is closely linked to the surrounding society, as commercial buildings have several economic, environmental, political, social and cultural influences. Correspondingly, the surrounding society, its actors and the different forces of change appearing in the market environment also have their own influence on the real estate market environment and its future development. However, this connection may be left without the attention it is entitled to and there is a danger that far-reaching decisions concerning commercial real estates will be made without sufficient analysis over possible future development. This paper investigates how the forces of change appearing in the present real estate market environment may affect future commercial real estates and their market environment. The forces of change are identified with an information collection method called environmental scanning known from future studies. After that the possible future influences of the identified forces of change are organized and analyzed with another future studies method called futures wheels. Finally, a holistic synthesis over the mutual future themes of the commercial real estate market is presented: (1) real estate themes: comfort, image, distinctive spaces and elements, technicality, safety and geographical location and transportation connectivity (2) market themes: interaction, demand for services, segregation and need for special knowledge and expertise (3) ideological themes: quality and redefinition of attractiveness, integration of space types, diversified demand and versatility of commercial real estate and owner-occupancy vs. tenancy. The database utilized in the environmental scanning and future wheel processes consists of 400 literary sources and 170 person sources presenting the views of different real estate market actors. Acknowledging the identified future themes is essential when preparing for future development. By being aware, it is possible to carefully study different development paths, their probability, essential factors and above all, the actors’ own possibilities to affect future development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While no one can predict the future, informed forecasting can provide decision makers with information and intelligence to establish realistic and achievable goals. Gazing out to the year 2020, I envision four drivers of change that will likely affect the trajectory of terrorist groups and movements: (a) Rapidly evolving technology will offer benefits for both terrorist entities and the authorities who work to curtail their activities; (b) Increasing globalization and political upheaval will produce new and interesting alliances between groups with seemingly little in common (e.g., White supremacists and Mexican drug cartels); (c) The most successful terrorist movements will be those that adopt hybrid structures, integrating both hierarchical and networked structures to achieve maximum success; and (d) The blurring of boundaries on many fronts will make it increasingly difficult to find meaningful differences between gangs, criminal enterprises, political actors, and terrorists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The built environment as a part of society is facing fast and constant changes occurring in the surrounding environment. This is a challenging situation for real estates because their character does not inherently support fast changes and constant development. Nevertheless there are many reasons why it is essential that also commercial real estates are able to answer to development goals set to them by different market actors. This can be achieved by analyzing forces of change affecting the market at this moment. Identifying the forces is important because they form the future real estate market and related land use. When market actors are aware of the forces appearing in their action environment, they are able to notice any new phenomena emerging and quickly adapt their actions and even steer the development to the desired direction. This competitive advantage can benefit both public and private sectors. This study presents the different forces of change affecting the commercial real estate market in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) in Finland. The forces of change are studied with a future research method called environmental scanning (ES). The identified forces form a complicated network with many interconnections. Different actors working with real estate and land use issues can benefit from this knowledge in far reaching planning over these issues. Actors are able to make better decisions and prepare themselves for the future, if familiar with the forces of change shaping future real estates and their land use. Because of the constant changes happening in the action environment, the need to foresee and evaluate future requirements and demand set to real estates will only increase in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Field experiences on corporate foresight show predominantly a learning process to open up the mind-set for fresh thinking, visionary strategising and robust decision-making. It combines techniques of futures research with the facilitation of group processes to assemble relations, to reframe a situation, to induce action. The combination of different approaches a supporting system for implementation and the continuous readjustment of the outcomes establish individual and team learning as well as organisational development. This article presents practical cases and how in these cases, the trajectories were changed actively. Some cases are technological, others are more structural. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this article a study is presented of the ways in which some well-known futurists have considered time-scales in their central works, looking too at a few frequently applied forecasting methodologies. It is found, that there is obviously yet no common view of the extent of the time ahead meant for the terms future and futures and in using the time-horizon specifications, such as short-term and long-term. A survey of how time-scales are taken note of and presented in individual futures research articles is also given. On the basis of the study and survey made, the conclusions list three recommendations, which could be taken into consideration in futures studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In technological forecasting and futures research on social change, the term wild card (a.k.a. disruptor or STEEP surprise), traditionally refers to a plausible future event that is estimated to have low probability but high impact should it occur. This article introduces: [1.] A Type II Wild Card, defined as having high probability and high impact as seen by experts if present trends continue, but low credibility for non-expert stakeholders of importance. [2.] A four-level typology of wild cards, leading to a systematic methodology for monitoring the emerging awareness and credibility of high probability disruptors and for assessment of stakeholder-specific views about them. An informal pilot test of the methodology both indicated that the approach has practical value, and highlighted the importance of highly plausible tipping points which could rapidly lead to massive disruption, either toward collapse or reformation in the complex adaptive systems (CAS) making up human civilization. For reasons of historical continuity, wild card-related nomenclature is used throughout the majority of this article although the term STEEP Surprise is advocated for further work. (STEEP being a frequently used acronym denoting five conceptual sectors of importance.) Suggestions for further work include: [•] Research on how to diminish the discounting of Type II phenomena by institutional leaders [•] Monitoring of transitions in the perceived credibility of critical Type II STEEP Surprises by thought leaders [•] A Snowball Survey of wisdom leaders having multidisciplinary expertise from all walks of life to identify specific Type II possibilities (especially positive ones), they see as having greatest importance [•] A Cooperative Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises for sharing of intelligence on highly probable/highly disruptive events, together with plausible impacts and proactive policies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]