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Lightning is an important threat to life and properties and its forecast is important for several applications. In this paper, we show the performance of the "dynamic lightning scheme" for next-day total strokes forecast. The predictions were compared against strokes recorded by a ground observational network for a forecast period spanning one year. Specifically, a total of 162 case studies were selected between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021, characterized by at least 3000 observed strokes over Italy. The events span a broad range of lightning intensity from about 3000 to 600,000 strokes in one day: 69 cases occurred in summer, 46 in fall, 18 in winter, and 29 in spring. The meteorological driver was the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 4.1) and we focused on the next-day forecast. Strokes were simulated by adding three extra variables to WRF, namely, the potential energies for positive and negative cloud to ground flashes and intracloud strokes. Each potential energy is advected by WRF, it is built by the electrification processes occurring into the cloud, and it is dissipated by lightning. Observed strokes were remapped onto the WRF model grid with a 3 km horizontal resolution for comparison with the strokes forecast. Results are discussed for the whole year and for different seasons. Moreover, statistics are presented for the land and the sea. In general, the results of this study show that lightning forecast with the dynamic lightning scheme and WRF model was successful for Italy; nevertheless, a careful inspection of forecast performance is necessary for tuning the scheme. This tuning is dependent on the season. A numerical experiment changing the microphysics scheme used in WRF shows the sensitivity of the results according to the choice of the microphysics scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy and localized summer events are very hard to predict and, at the same time, potentially dangerous for people and properties. This paper focuses on an event occurred on 15 July 2020 in Palermo, the largest city of Sicily, causing about 120 mm of rainfall in 3 h. The aim is to investigate the event predictability and a potential way to improve the precipitation forecast. To reach this aim, lightning (LDA) and radar reflectivity data assimilation (RDA) was applied. LDA was able to trigger deep convection over Palermo, with high precision, whereas the RDA had a key role in the prediction of the amount of rainfall. The simultaneous assimilation of both data sources gave the best results. An alert for a moderate–intense forecast could have been issued one hour and a half before the storm developed over the city, even if predicting only half of the total rainfall. A satisfactory prediction of the amount of rainfall could have been issued at 14:30 UTC, when precipitation was already affecting the city. Although the study is centered on a single event, it highlights the need for rapidly updated forecast cycles with data assimilation at the local scale, for a better prediction of similar events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 10 October 2018 an intense storm, characterized by heavy rainfall, hit the Sardinia island, reaching a peak of 452 mm of rain measured in 24 h. Among others, two particularly intense phases were registered between 3 and 6 UTC (Universal Coordinated Time), and between 18 and 24 UTC. The forecast of this case study is challenging because the precipitation was heavy and localized. In particular, the meteorological model used in this paper, provides a good prediction only for the second period over the eastern part of the Sardinia island. In this work, we study the impact of lightning data assimilation and horizontal grid resolution on the Very Short-term Forecast (VSF, 3 and 1 h) for this challenging case, using the RAMS@ISAC meteorological model. The comparison between the 3 h VSF control run and the simulations with lightning data assimilation shows the considerable improvement given by lightning data assimilation, especially for the precipitation that occurred in the eastern part of the island. Reducing the VSF range to 1 h, resulted in higher model performance with a good precipitation prediction over eastern and south-central Sardinia. In addition, the comparison between simulated and observed reflectivity shows an important improvement of simulations with lightning data assimilation compared to the control forecast. However, simulations assimilating lightning overestimated the precipitation in the last part of the day. The increasing of the horizontal resolution to 2 km grid spacing reduces the false alarms and improves the model performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show, for the first time over Italy and over part of the central Mediterranean Basin, the impact of lightning data assimilation (LDA) on the strokes forecast for a long period. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Dynamic Lightning Scheme (DLS) at convection allowing horizontal resolution (3 km). We carried out a two-seasons experiment (summer 2020 and fall 2021) providing the forecast of lightning and precipitation for the next 6 h (nowcasting), considering two sub-periods (0-3 h and 3-6 h) for verification. The LDA is done through a nudging scheme that increases the water vapor mass in the mixed-phase region based on observed flash density rates and simulated graupel mixing ratio. No changes are made to the model run if spurious convection is predicted or no flashes are observed. LDA can trigger convection missed by the control forecast, without LDA, and/or can redistribute the strokes predicted to be more consistent with observations. LDA has a positive impact on strokes forecast, improving correct forecasts and reducing false alarms. This improvement is however confined to the first three-hours of forecast with negligible to negative impact for longer time ranges, in line with other studies. The improvement pattern is different in summer and fall, depending on the convection development. The analysis of the Fraction Skill Score shows the usefulness of the forecast for practical purposes, considering the current areas used by the Civil Protection Department to issue meteorological alerts for intense convective events over Italy. Finally, it is shown that the forecast at the short-range (0−3 h) using LDA can improve the strokes forecast issued on the previous day, not using LDA, and the methodology of this paper can be applied to issue warnings and alerts as the storm is approaching. A brief examination of rainfall forecast shows positive impact of LDA at the short-range (0-3 h), with neutral impact for longer time ranges. The different impact of LDA on the strokes and precipitation forecasts is also highlighted. • Lightning data assimilation improves the lightning and precipitation forecast for the first three-hours in summer and fall. • The pattern of improvement is different in summer and fall. • The very short-term forecast refines the previous day forecast as the storm is approaching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]