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Numerous genetically modified (GM) traits are currently under development. Those currently being developed for corn include traits for drought tolerance, cold tolerance, and nitrogen use efficiency, among others. The value of these traits is random and sporadic, creating challenges in assessing its ex ante value. This study estimates the ex ante value of a GM trait in corn with random characteristics. A real option model is developed to capture risks and returns associated with the traits, and estimates are derived for drought tolerant corn. Base case results indicate a slight chance that the option value would be out-of-the-money during the discovery phase. In all other phases, the expected value is in-the-money. The results are highly sensitive with respect to trait efficiency and regarding assumptions of randomness in some of the other important variables, particularly trait values.

The transcendental logarithmic function is used to derive demand functions which are estimated for wheat classes imported by Pacific Rim countries. Results indicate substantial differences exist in underlying demand parameters for wheat of different classes as well as across countries. In addition, the expenditure level has important impacts on the distribution of imported wheat classes, and preferences have shifted significantly through time, generally toward higher protein wheats.

The basis values for hard red spring wheat (HRS) have escalated radically, experienced extraordinary levels of volatility (risk), have been subject to a squeeze during 2008, and all these have important implications for market participants. These observations are particularly important to marketers in the Northern Great Plains in the United States, as well as for Canadian marketers. The purpose of this paper is to develop a model to explore the dynamic relationships and interdependencies among terminal market basis values for milling quality higher-protein wheat. Specifically, we seek to identify factors impacting basis values for 13, 14, and 15% protein HRS wheat in addition to the intermakret wheat spread between Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat futures. We specify a vector autoregression (VAR) model to explore these relationships. Exogenous structural variables are specified in addition to dynamic inter-relationships including seasonal variability, inter-temporal variability and dynamic interdependencies among these markets and relationships. The results of interest are that: 1) basis values for these wheat markets been trending up, and have become more volatile; 2) factors impacting this variability is primarily the protein level in HRS, and production of HRW and Canadian (on high protein basis); 3) HRW protein supplies are not significant in the basis equations, but, do have an impact on the interrmarket wheat futures spread; 4) Quality levels.

Release of a genetically modified (GM) crop variety would lower prices of competing pesticides used on conventional varieties. This causes an increase in surplus for those farmers who adopt the GM variety, as well as for those who plant the conventional variety. A Cournot model was developed to determine the equilibrium quantities of conventional pesticides. A market with conventional wheat was compared to a market with both conventional and GM wheat varieties to identify price decreases of the conventional pesticide as a result of the GM trait introduction.

Wheat protein is one of the most important specifications used in domestic and import purchase contracts. It is used as a proxy for functional quality that is important in domestic markets and to importers. Large differences exist in functional characteristics amongst wheat that vary by protein level and class. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the demand for wheat protein across importing countries and through time. A choice based econometric model is specified and estimated using a pooled data set of wheat shipments. Results indicate that there have been shifts over time, purchase probabilities are highly price elastic and vary across importing regions. In addition, income, traded goods, urbanization, females in the work force, and domestic wheat production all impact purchase probabilities. Finally, wet gluten content and extraction rates have significant impacts on purchase probabilities.

Wheat protein is one of the most important specifications used in domestic and import purchase contracts. It is used as a proxy for functional quality that is important in domestic markets and to importers. Large differences exist in functional characteristics amongst wheat that vary by protein level and class. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the demand for wheat protein across importing countries and through time. A choice based econometric model is specified and estimated using a pooled data set of wheat shipments. Results indicate that there have been shifts over time, purchase probabilities are highly price elastic and vary across importing regions. In addition, income, traded goods, urbanization, females in the work force, and domestic wheat production all impact purchase probabilities. Finally, wet gluten content and extraction rates have significant impacts on purchase probabilities.

Genetically modified (GM) grains have increased in importance. Moving biotech grains from producers to processors is a challenge for the grain handling system that could involve increased segregations. The objective of this research is to determine how testing strategies affect the logistical costs of a grain pipeline when GM wheat is present. A logistical model was developed and simulated to analyze impacts of uncertainty in demand, receipts, test accuracy, rail deliveries, and transit time. Sensitivities were conducted on certain variables to determine their effects on logistical costs. Analysis revealed that logistical costs are impacted by the number of quality categories and uncertainties in the system. Adding GM grains increased costs due to testing requirements and increased segregation demands as the number of wheat categories rises.

Genetically modified (GM) grains have increased in importance. Moving biotech grains from producers to processors is a challenge for the grain handling system that could involve increased segregations. The objective of this research is to determine how testing strategies affect the logistical costs of a grain pipeline when GM wheat is present. A logistical model was developed and simulated to analyze impacts of uncertainty in demand, receipts, test accuracy, rail deliveries, and transit time. Sensitivities were conducted on certain variables to determine their effects on logistical costs. Analysis revealed that logistical costs are impacted by the number of quality categories and uncertainties in the system. Adding GM grains increased costs due to testing requirements and increased segregation demands as the number of wheat categories rises.

Special segregations that provide unique qualities for end use products are being specified by buyers. As users of wheat become more specific about quality, the number of quality segregations that the logistical pipeline must accommodate increases. The additional cost of increased grain segregations will influence the optimal level of wheat variety segregations marketed in a supply chain. The primary objective of this research is to develop a model that captures the logistical costs of increased grain segregations in the marketing system. A simulation model was developed to add logistical uncertainty in demand, receipts, rail deliveries, and transit time. Sensitivities were conducted on certain variables to determine their effects on logistical costs. Logistical costs increase as more segregations are added. In addition, increasing uncertainty into the system raises logistical costs. Pipeline configuration also affects costs as the number of categories/storage bins present at origin may differ from the wheat categories demanded or the number of storage bins present at the export elevator.

Special segregations that provide unique qualities for end use products are being specified by buyers. As users of wheat become more specific about quality, the number of quality segregations that the logistical pipeline must accommodate increases. The additional cost of increased grain segregations will influence the optimal level of wheat variety segregations marketed in a supply chain. The primary objective of this research is to develop a model that captures the logistical costs of increased grain segregations in the marketing system. A simulation model was developed to add logistical uncertainty in demand, receipts, rail deliveries, and transit time. Sensitivities were conducted on certain variables to determine their effects on logistical costs. Logistical costs increase as more segregations are added. In addition, increasing uncertainty into the system raises logistical costs. Pipeline configuration also affects costs as the number of categories/storage bins present at origin may differ from the wheat categories demanded or the number of storage bins present at the export elevator.

Agricultural biotechnology is advancing rapidly and is embracing all major crops. The adoption of genetically modified corn, soybeans, and cotton have reached high levels in the United States. Wheat is the next major crop confronting the biotechnology issue, but no commercial varieties of genetically modified (GM) wheat have been released yet. Primary opportunities for GM developments in wheat center around improvements that meet consumer and end-user needs/issues in addition to meeting producer efficiencies. Developers and proponents of GM wheat must focus on education of consumers and restoration of worldwide confidence in the regulatory systems. The most desired wheat quality trait among millers and bakers is the assurance of consistent quality.

Agricultural biotechnology is advancing rapidly and is embracing all major crops. The adoption of genetically modified corn, soybeans, and cotton have reached high levels in the United States. Wheat is the next major crop confronting the biotechnology issue, but no commercial varieties of genetically modified (GM) wheat have been released yet. Primary opportunities for GM developments in wheat center around improvements that meet consumer and end-user needs/issues in addition to meeting producer efficiencies. Developers and proponents of GM wheat must focus on education of consumers and restoration of worldwide confidence in the regulatory systems. The most desired wheat quality trait among millers and bakers is the assurance of consistent quality.

The Canadian grain handling and transportation system has undergone substantial change in recent years, particularly since the elimination of rail subsidies in 1995. Competitive pressures and branch line abandonment have forced many primary elevators to close, while scores of new high-throughput elevators have been constructed across the Prairies. Rationalization of the grain handling system and proposals for further deregulation of rail transportation are driven by the need to improve system efficiency. Policy recommendations of the Estey Report (notably, the elimination of rail rate caps, and 'port buying' by the Canadian Wheat Board) would have important consequences for the grain trade and are contentious issues within Canada. Changes in grain handling, reciprocal access to marketing functions, and elimination of rate caps may have a significant impact on cross-border barley flows.

The Canadian grain handling and transportation system has undergone substantial change in recent years, particularly since the elimination of rail subsidies in 1995. Competitive pressures and branch line abandonment have forced many primary elevators to close, while scores of new high-throughput elevators have been constructed across the Prairies. Rationalization of the grain handling system and proposals for further deregulation of rail transportation are driven by the need to improve system efficiency. Policy recommendations of the Estey Report (notably, the elimination of rail rate caps, and 'port buying' by the Canadian Wheat Board) would have important consequences for the grain trade and are contentious issues within Canada. Changes in grain handling, reciprocal access to marketing functions, and elimination of rate caps may have a significant impact on cross-border barley flows.

The demand for high quality hard wheats has been increasing. In this paper, factors affecting the supply and consistency of high quality wheats in Canada and North Dakota were compared and contrasted. Differences exist in the development and release of new varieties which affect the number and quality of hard wheats produced. Variety numbers and concentration were examined with a range of measures. Wheat area in Canada was found to be concentrated in fewer varieties than in North Dakota. These results were more apparent for durum than for hard red spring wheats. However, there was a trend toward more concentration in North Dakota and less in Canada. Protein, yield, and trade-offs were compared. Alberta appears to have a comparative advantage in the production of higher protein wheats. Farmers there have less of a yield loss penalty for increasing protein, compared to other regions. Varietal selection models were developed to analyze factors affecting variety choice. In Canada, agronomic factors including, relative yields, were significant variables affecting variety choice. In North Dakota, agronomic factors other than years since release generally had less effect on adoption rates. Varieties in North Dakota and Manitoba were found to have shorter life cycles and reached their maximum utilization by farmers faster than in Alberta or Saskatchewan.

The demand for high quality hard wheats has been increasing. In this paper, factors affecting the supply and consistency of high quality wheats in Canada and North Dakota were compared and contrasted. Differences exist in the development and release of new varieties which affect the number and quality of hard wheats produced. Variety numbers and concentration were examined with a range of measures. Wheat area in Canada was found to be concentrated in fewer varieties than in North Dakota. These results were more apparent for durum than for hard red spring wheats. However, there was a trend toward more concentration in North Dakota and less in Canada. Protein, yield, and trade-offs were compared. Alberta appears to have a comparative advantage in the production of higher protein wheats. Farmers there have less of a yield loss penalty for increasing protein, compared to other regions. Varietal selection models were developed to analyze factors affecting variety choice. In Canada, agronomic factors including, relative yields, were significant variables affecting variety choice. In North Dakota, agronomic factors other than years since release generally had less effect on adoption rates. Varieties in North Dakota and Manitoba were found to have shorter life cycles and reached their maximum utilization by farmers faster than in Alberta or Saskatchewan.

The demand for high quality hard wheats has been increasing. In this paper, factors affecting the supply and consistency of high quality wheats in Canada and North Dakota were compared and contrasted. Differences exist in the development and release of new varieties which affect the number and quality of hard wheats produced. Variety numbers and concentration were examined with a range of measures. Wheat area in Canada was found to be concentrated in fewer varieties than in North Dakota. These results were more apparent for durum than for hard red spring wheats. However, there was a trend toward more concentration in North Dakota and less in Canada. Protein, yield, and trade-offs were compared. Alberta appears to have a comparative advantage in the production of higher protein wheats. Farmers there have less of a yield loss penalty for increasing protein, compared to other regions. Varietal selection models were developed to analyze factors affecting variety choice. In Canada, agronomic factors including, relative yields, were significant variables affecting variety choice. In North Dakota, agronomic factors other than years since release generally had less effect on adoption rates. Varieties in North Dakota and Manitoba were found to have shorter life cycles and reached their maximum utilization by farmers faster than in Alberta or Saskatchewan.

The demand for high quality hard wheats has been increasing. In this paper, factors affecting the supply and consistency of high quality wheats in Canada and North Dakota were compared and contrasted. Differences exist in the development and release of new varieties which affect the number and quality of hard wheats produced. Variety numbers and concentration were examined with a range of measures. Wheat area in Canada was found to be concentrated in fewer varieties than in North Dakota. These results were more apparent for durum than for hard red spring wheats. However, there was a trend toward more concentration in North Dakota and less in Canada. Protein, yield, and trade-offs were compared. Alberta appears to have a comparative advantage in the production of higher protein wheats. Farmers there have less of a yield loss penalty for increasing protein, compared to other regions. Varietal selection models were developed to analyze factors affecting variety choice. In Canada, agronomic factors including, relative yields, were significant variables affecting variety choice. In North Dakota, agronomic factors other than years since release generally had less effect on adoption rates. Varieties in North Dakota and Manitoba were found to have shorter life cycles and reached their maximum utilization by farmers faster than in Alberta or Saskatchewan.

Changes in policy, institutional and competitive environments have led to increased trade and a rise in trade tensions in the Canada-U.S. barely market. These tensions stem from policies and marketing institutions that have evolved independently in these two countries. Results from a detailed spatial equilibrium model of the Canada- U.S. barley market are presented in this article. Simulations are used to quantify effects of U.S. import restrictions; removal of Canadian rail subsidies, different Export Enhancement Program (EEP) subsidy levels, restoration of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acres to U.S. production, and retention of Canadian Wheat Board control over Canadian barley sales—all of which affect trade flows in the barley sector.

Changes in policy, institutional and competitive environments have led to increased trade and a rise in trade tensions in the Canada-U.S. barely market. These tensions stem from policies and marketing institutions that have evolved independently in these two countries. Results from a detailed spatial equilibrium model of the Canada- U.S. barley market are presented in this article. Simulations are used to quantify effects of U.S. import restrictions; removal of Canadian rail subsidies, different Export Enhancement Program (EEP) subsidy levels, restoration of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acres to U.S. production, and retention of Canadian Wheat Board control over Canadian barley sales - all of which affect trade flows in the barley sector.

Price responsiveness and preferences for wheat classes are measured using a Case function specification. Results indicate there have been numerous changes in market shares of wheat classes from different exporters in specific markets. In general, quality differentials are important in some international markets; in others, relative prices are more important in determining market shares.

This paper identifies the price responsiveness and preferences for wheat classes using a "Case" Function specification. Results indicate there have been numerous changes in market shares of wheat classes from the different exporters in specific markets. In general, quality differentials are important in some international markets, whereas others are very price responsive.

Price differentials for Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter wheat of different protein levels are examined in this study.

This paper identifies the price responsiveness and preferences for wheat classes using a "Case" Function specification. Results indicate there have been numerous changes in market shares of wheat classes from the different exporters in specific markets. In general, quality differentials are important in some international markets, whereas others are very price responsive.

Price differentials for Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter wheat of different protein levels are examined in this study.