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According to the January 2020 issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, the 1 December to 20 January period was warmer than usual throughout Europe. The most marked anomalies occurred in large parts of France and northern-central and eastern Europe, for which this period (1 December to 20 January) was one of the warmest in our records. In southern regions, December was very mild but January temperatures so far have been close to average. It is still too early to fully assess the impacts of the unusually mild winter conditions on crop yield potential. One positive effect of the mild first half of winter is that late-sown winter cereal crops had more time to establish. Moreover, there have so far been no significant occurrences of frost damage to winter crops in the EU. However, there are also negative effects. Primarily, frost tolerance (usually referred to as winter hardening) is weakly developed. Compared to an average year, the hardening of winter crops remains particularly poor in southern Sweden, Germany, Poland, the Baltic countries, Belarus, the north-western part of European Russia and western Ukraine. This means that in these regions, crops are particularly vulnerable to frost damage in the event of a cold air intrusion, although such an event is not expected within the current weather forecast period (until 31 January). Another drawback is that pest and disease pressure can be expected to be higher than usual following a mild winter. In addition, several parts of Europe experienced much drier-than-usual conditions: this includes the persistent lack of precipitation in southern Italy (in the most important regions for durum wheat), large parts of Germany, western Poland and western Czechia, large parts of the Balkan region, Bulgaria, Romania, central and western Ukraine, western Turkey and western Morocco. In several of these regions, dry conditions have prevailed since autumn. During winter, these conditions mainly affect soil moisture and ground water replenishment, rather than having a direct impact on crops. The overall balance of positive and negative effects will depend on how the winter season evolves., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The yield forecasts for almost all summer crops in the EU were revised downwards from the July forecast, but remain above or near the 5-year average. Compared to the figures reported in July, the main downward revisions occurred for summer crops in France, Romania, Bulgaria, Germany, the Benelux countries and Poland. By contrast, the yield forecast for soybeans was revised upwards, as very favourable conditions prevailed in northern Italy and Hungary. Large parts of western and northern central Europe have been affected by a rain deficit since the beginning of July. Temperatures increased in these regions at the end of July, and a heatwave of seven to ten consecutive days occurred in the first half of August. The combination of limited water supply and high temperatures negatively affected summer crops, with expected reductions in yields. In southern Ukraine and eastern parts of Romania and Bulgaria, the return of drought conditions negatively impacted summer crops, leading to the early senescence of maize and sunflower crops. In contrast, summer crops benefited from a surplus of precipitation in many other parts of central Europe, eastern Italy, and western Romania., JRC.D.5-Food Security

All crops are forecast above the five-year average, as well as above last year’s yields, following a mostly favourable season., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Winter crops are advanced and in good shape in most of Europe, following a mild winter. Cold spells have been rare and have not caused significant damage. Large parts of southern Europe experienced a precipitation deficit; more rain will be needed there to sustain good crop growth., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Wet conditions delay winter sowing Continued dry conditions in Mediterranean regions, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Predominantly good conditions for winter cereals, JRC.D.5-Food Security

No additional frost-kill damage Hardening of winter cereals did not improve for large parts of Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Little relief for summer crops, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Temperatures from the end of October until mid-November were well above average across most of Europe, and the highest in our records (since 1975) for the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Scandinavia and the Baltic countries. Such temperatures are beneficial to the development of the emerged winter crops. Conditions improved in Poland, Ukraine and Russia, where beneficial rains and higher temperatures provided relief from the difficulties reported in the previous bulletin. The preceding unfavourable germination conditions may yet have a knock-on effect on next year’s yields, depending on the winter and spring conditions to come. A large belt in central and eastern Europe is experiencing a period of rain scarcity, which has been beneficial for the sowing and emergence of winter crops. Most of these regions faced excessive rainfall during the first half of October. In southern Italy, torrential rain occurred at the end of October, prior to the sowing of winter crops. High positive rainfall anomalies have been recorded in the north-western United Kingdom, but not in crop-growing regions., JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Very high temperatures and scarce rainfall characterised the weather conditions in South and South-East Europe from mid-July until mid-August. The dry weather accelerated the harvesting of winter cereals. The inadequate water supply caused irreversible damages in the summer crops. The well-below average yield forecast for summer crops mirrors the severity of the situation in Spain, Italy, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Seasonal or slightly colder than usual thermal conditions dominated in North and North-West Europe. Precipitation decreased and significant rainfall events became less frequent in this region as compared to the first half of July, except for Ireland and Northern UK where wet conditions persisted. The dryer weather facilitated the harvest of winter cereals and provided good conditions for the growth and development of summer crops, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

A cold December in western Europe; milder weather with wide fluctuations in eastern Europe, the Black Sea basin and Russia. Crop conditions across Europe are considered satisfactory and no major concerns are reported. Western Europe experienced a cold December with early winter crop dormancy and partially lower biomass accumulation before the winter. It was milder than usual in eastern Europe, the Black Sea basin and Russia, but wide fluctuations and a sharp frost did occur, adversely affecting crops in Russia and Ukraine. For the EU-27 there are no particular frost kill concerns; snow covered the crops during cold temperatures in December and the cold spells in January. Crops are vulnerable to late frosts due to rather mild temperatures in February., JRC.DDG.H.4-Monitoring agricultural resources

Difficult season and decrease of planted areas lead to average production levels., JRC.DG.G.3-Monitoring agricultural resources

Cereal production in the 009- 010 agricultural season was characterized by abundant precipitation. The outcome could have been better if rain had been better distributed.The poor distribution of rain led to different results from one administrative region to another, and from one province to another within the same region. The final results across the provinces was mainly determined by the date of planting and emergence of various diseases. All regions of the country have been affected by the April weather, historically hot and quite dry, a very unfavourable situation for an optimal grain filling. The expected benefit is therefore lower than the previous season, but should be higher for early planting and lower for late planting. Damage due to infestation by weeds and diseases vary from one region to another but should be within the magnitude of the previous year at national level. As for the use of nitrogen, there appears to have been no change from the previous season., JRC.DG.G.3-Monitoring agricultural resources