1. Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery
- Author
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Francisco Alemany, Vicenç Moltó, Miquel Palmer, Mark Gatt, Andrés Ospina-Álvarez, Amina Besbes Benseddik, Ignacio Alberto Catalán, Sílvia Pérez-Mayol, Beatriz Morales-Nin, European Commission, Govern de les Illes Balears, and Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Effects of global warming on oceans ,Science ,01 natural sciences ,Article ,Sea temperature ,Effects of global warming ,14. Life underwater ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Coryphaena ,Multidisciplinary ,biology ,Ecology ,Phenology ,010604 marine biology & hydrobiology ,Pelagic zone ,biology.organism_classification ,Short life ,Fishery ,Environmental sciences ,Ocean sciences ,Productivity (ecology) ,13. Climate action ,Environmental science ,Medicine ,Climate sciences - Abstract
Increasing sea temperature is a driver of change for many fish traits, particularly for fast-growing epipelagic species with short life spans. With warming, altered spawning phenology and faster growth may produce substantially larger body sizes of the new cohort, affecting fishery productivity. We present an individual-based model (IBM) that predicts the distribution of fish length at catch under observed and projected thermal scenarios, accounting for mortality, temperature-dependent spawning phenology, temperature- and photoperiod- dependent growth. This IBM was demonstrated with Coryphaena hippurus (common dolphinfish), a circumglobally-distributed and highly thermophilic species sustaining commercial and recreational fisheries where it is present. The model projected a 13.2% increase in the average length at catch under marine heatwave conditions compared to the current thermal regime (1995–2005 average). Projections under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 by the end of the century led to 5.1% and 12.8% increase in average length, respectively. Furthermore, these thermal scenarios affected spawning phenology differently, producing higher variance in body size under RCP 8.5 scenario with respect to marine heatwave conditions. This study highlights how the environmental effects of climate change can alter the distribution of species length at catch., The present paper is part of the CERES project (H2020, EU 678193). Part of the data was obtained from the FAO-Copemed and FAO-Copemed II projects (http://www.faocopemed.org/). This study has been conducted using E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information. V. Moltó acknowledges a predoctoral grant funded by the Regional Government of the Balearic Islands and the European Social Fund, A. Ospina Álvarez was supported by H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (746361), and S. Pérez-Mayol salary was founded by PN Project DREAMER (CTM2015-66676-C2-1-R). We also acknowledge Andreina Fenech, Marie Louise Pace, and Roberta Mifsud from the Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture of Malta for the data collection and provision.
- Published
- 2021